West Forecast

[THE HCP]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=SummerForecast10-WestChamps

 

[julius]

How in the fuck can they justify Houston being in the top 4?

 

[oldmangrouch]

A little early to be making predictions. If Yao comes back 100%, the Rockets have a chance at the 2nd or 3rd seed. If he doesn't, they will be struggling. I also question putting the Thunder above the Mavs. IMHO, Dallas has at least one good year in them.

 

[STOMP]

How in the fuck can they justify Houston being in the top 4?

given health, I rate the Blazers Lakers and Rockets the top 3 teams in the West... they have the best talent

which team is most likely to be healthy? The oft injured young Blazers? Yao (nuff said) and the Rockets? Or the much older Lakers coming off back to backs? Some of health is random/luck, some is physical makeup, and some is due to putting in the right sort of work in the offseason

STOMP

 

[Luther]

People are really convinced the Thunder are the second best team in the west...Am I dumb or is that team not nearly as good as projected?

 

[Boise Blazer]

People are really convinced the Thunder are the second best team in the west...Am I dumb or is that team not nearly as good as projected?

Ive said this before in other threads but the stars were completely alined for the Thunder last year. They snuck up on people, Durant took the "next step" and they had almost NO injuries. I cant see those 3 things all happening again this year so although I think they will be a good team, a playoff team. Im not convinced they are going to be able to moved up to a top 3 team though. I could be wrong ...

 

[crandc]

People are really convinced the Thunder are the second best team in the west...Am I dumb or is that team not nearly as good as projected?

I don't think you're dumb. I fail to see how a team that won, what, 42 or 43 games with everyone healthy can be expected to improve by 10 games or so with no major changes in personnel, but teams killed by injuries are expected to get worse with their players healthy.

NBA has fads like everything else and Thunder are current fad.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I don't think you're dumb. I fail to see how a team that won, what, 42 or 43 games with everyone healthy can be expected to improve by 10 games or so with no major changes in personnel, but teams killed by injuries are expected to get worse with their players healthy.

NBA has fads like everything else and Thunder are current fad.

The Thunder won 50 ...

 

[julius]

The thing with Houston is though, Yao is a bigger ? mark than Oden, imho. And after Yao, the Rockets are basically Martin, Scola, Aaron Brooks and an aging Battier.

I'm not saying we ARE going to be better, but I must be under estimating just how crappy the rest of the conference is if Houston is considered a top 3 team.

 

[julius]

The Thunder won 50 ...

An interesting thing, to me, is that Portland won 51 games last year, and the Thunder won 50 or 51 (I thought they tied us).

They had NO injuries of note, and Portland lost something like 9 billion games to injuries last year. Now, of course some of the reason why the Thunder are considered (by some) to be better is because they're the popular team right now, but that the Blazers have players who could be injured again.

But considering the freak nature of Joel's injury, Batums injury (which shouldn't be a problem) and at the time Travis's odd injury, having those guys healthy (at least, Batum) will make a HUGE impact on the teams overall record.

If Oden can be healthy for 65 games this year, Joel plays around 50-60, and Batum plays the majority of the games, it will have a major impact on our record.

I think even if Oden doesn't play many games this year, but we are relatively injury free otherwise, we should finish with a better record than the Thunder. Having a season start off with a starting 5 of (assuming no trades) Roy, Miller, Camby, Batum and Aldridge will be a big deal. Even if they do trade Miller, having the same starting 5 that ended last year (sans a PG) will be huge to start to the season. They can get used to each other from the start instead of having to adjust to drastic changes midway through the year.

Having a healthy Oden, and a lineup of R,A,M,B,O, (and a backup of M,B,C,C,(P) ) would be a top 4 team easily. Our placement in the conference depends (too much) on their overall health.

I'm not really sure I made any point here.

 

[Kaydow]

The Rockets 2 votes are baffling. Let's assume Yao does come back and stay relatively healthy - how much can you really expect from him? 20/10? Hard to imagine.

In the last month of the season, Houston averaged 110 PPG (and gave up 110 PPG), with the the Run-n-gun back court of Brooks and Martin. How does Yao fit into that? They obviously have to slow the pace of the game down for him, and become a half-court team. Problem is, there is no Ron Artest or T. Ariza around to play defense. They still have Battier, but he's getting older and has been slowed by injuries in recent years. They used to have a grind-it-out identity, and had a reputation as a physical team. But now they have guys like Chase Budinger, Kevin Martin, and Courney Lee. Not exactly a murderers row of guys who can intimidate you. So if Yao is back, and they dump the run-and-gun tempo for the half court/slow pace . . . it doesn't seem like they have right personnel for that anymore. They'll be alright, but good enough to seriously challenge for the West? Unlikely.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

The Thunder hav been improving each year, won 50 games last year, are a young team and have a superstar who is just now starting to emerge as one of the top players in the entire league.

If the Thunder roster was the Trailblazer roster, I think posters on this board would be ranking that roster as a potential championship contender.

 

[HailBlazers]

Marc Stein, ESPN.com: Lakers. Not sure how you can dare to pick anyone else when no one can definitively tell you the second-best team in the West.
The overall depth in the conference is obviously still superior to the East's

It's a crab shoot. I like our chances.

 

[e_blazer]

This list isn't a predicted order of finish for the West, it's a list of the number of votes that each team received for finishing first in the West from 93 judges. All but 5 said that the Lakers would finish on top.

 

[Kaydow]

It's a crab shoot. I like our chances.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=crab shoot

Hadn't heard of this . . . good analogy.

 

[Moo2K4]

I actually like the Thunder as the 2 seed. I think they've got the MVP on their team this upcoming year, they've got one of the best PGs in the game running the team, and they're just going to keep getting better. That team is still so young that I don't think they've fulfilled their potential.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

An interesting thing, to me, is that Portland won 51 games last year, and the Thunder won 50 or 51 (I thought they tied us).

We technically won 50 if you remember. We "threw" the last game by resting the starters and playing like Cunningham, Pendergraph, Bayless, Howard and Rudy against a Golden State team that we could have beat with our eyes closed had we played any decent starters. So we really were a 51 win team and OKC was a 50 win team, but because the 6th seed was locked, we took a game off and looked like a 50 win team on some record books.

But your premise is spot-on. OKC is a 50 win team when Durant scores 30 a night and Westbrook and Green have great years and all three are uninjured for 82 games - and nobody looks twice at OKC as a threat as nobody did last year for the first half of the season. Are they a 52-55 win team now? Obviously not until they manage to again stay healthy and have some of their younger players improve while their current stars retain those absurd stats, highly unlikely. I'd give them 48-50 again.

 

[THE HCP]

The Lakers are #1!

 

[julius]

We technically won 50 if you remember. We "threw" the last game by resting the starters and playing like Cunningham, Pendergraph, Bayless, Howard and Rudy against a Golden State team that we could have beat with our eyes closed had we played any decent starters. So we really were a 51 win team and OKC was a 50 win team, but because the 6th seed was locked, we took a game off and looked like a 50 win team on some record books.

you're right. I don't know why I thought it was 51 wins. Interesting note, the Blazers won the same # of games as the Eastern Conference Champs (and probably an injury away from being NBA Champ) Boston Celtics.

 

[Masbee]

The Thunder hav been improving each year, won 50 games last year, are a young team and have a superstar who is just now starting to emerge as one of the top players in the entire league.

If the Thunder roster was the Trailblazer roster, I think posters on this board would be ranking that roster as a potential championship contender.

Nope. I would be pining for a decent big.

It would be a constant source of discussion, more so than the everlasting PGOTF discussions on Blazer boards.

Name the last NBA champ without an All-Star, scratch that All-NBA big?

Gasol
KG
Shaq
Duncan

Pistons did it with DPOY Wallace and former, but not current All-Star Wallace, but only won because 39yr old Karl Malone was hurt. If he was healthy the better bigs Lakers win that one too.

 

[hasoos]

Nope. I would be pining for a decent big.

It would be a constant source of discussion, more so than the everlasting PGOTF discussions on Blazer boards.

Name the last NBA champ without an All-Star, scratch that All-NBA big?

Gasol
KG
Shaq
Duncan

Pistons did it with DPOY Wallace and former, but not current All-Star Wallace, but only won because 39yr old Karl Malone was hurt. If he was healthy the better bigs Lakers win that one too.

I'll disagree with you. The reason being, Shaq had already moved past his prime and the team depend on him more than Malone, and Malone had not really played well all season for them. The Pistons won because they peaked at the right time and LA could not stop them from scoring. Was Karl Malone going to stop Richard Hamilton and Billups from scoring or something? Detroit had the fire and desire. LA did not, they were burned out from winning it the previous years.

 

[MickZagger]

A 39 year old has-been Malone was the difference between them winning that Ring?

I beg to differ.

 

[rocketeer]

How in the fuck can they justify Houston being in the top 4?

if yao is relatively healthy, the rockets are finishing in the top 4. the same can be said about portland.

 

[rocketeer]

The thing with Houston is though, Yao is a bigger ? mark than Oden, imho. And after Yao, the Rockets are basically Martin, Scola, Aaron Brooks and an aging Battier.

I'm not saying we ARE going to be better, but I must be under estimating just how crappy the rest of the conference is if Houston is considered a top 3 team.

the rockets rotation looks like this:

pg - aaron brooks/kyle lowry
sg - kevin martin/courtney lee
sf - shane battier/chase budinger
pf - luis scola/patrick patterson/jordan hill
c - yao ming/brad miller/chuck hayes

the assumption that yao isn't going to be around is a bad one. he's never disappointed thus far coming back from injury. and really the biggest thing here is that the rockets will go back to being one of the top defensive teams in the league with yao's presence inside.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I'll disagree with you. The reason being, Shaq had already moved past his prime and the team depend on him more than Malone, and Malone had not really played well all season for them. The Pistons won because they peaked at the right time and LA could not stop them from scoring. Was Karl Malone going to stop Richard Hamilton and Billups from scoring or something? Detroit had the fire and desire. LA did not, they were burned out from winning it the previous years.

When was Shaq past his prime on a team that won a ring? He was still the most dominant force in the league when he got Wade his only ring. Not sure where that comes from. Obviously was past his prime with Phoenix and later then with Cleveland, but those teams didn't win rings anyway.

 

[hasoos]

When was Shaq past his prime on a team that won a ring? He was still the most dominant force in the league when he got Wade his only ring. Not sure where that comes from. Obviously was past his prime with Phoenix and later then with Cleveland, but those teams didn't win rings anyway.

What the hell are you smoking? No he wasn't. He was the second fiddle to the Dwayne Wade show, and he even said it himself. The reason LA lost the last year he was there, is because he was so overweight he was hurt much of the year. You seem to have forgot the verbal barbs going back and forth between him and Kobe as well. When he came to Miami, he lost weight, and became the 2nd fiddle to Wade, who powered Miami over the top with a bunch of old players who were just there to not fuck up. Amazingly, just like in the past, the year after they won, he got fat and lazy, and eventually was shipped out again.

 

[MickZagger]

I think thats how my memory remembers it as well.^