What if this is Lillard's ceiling?

[BlazerCaravan]

I don't think it is, but consider it a "what if" exercise.

If Lillard can perform at this level for 12-15 years but no better, would you want Lillard as a career Blazer PG? Would you start looking for a replacement or improvement? If so, when? Would you resign him to a post-rookie deal?

 

[magnifier661]

I don't think it is, but consider it a "what if" exercise.

If Lillard can perform at this level for 12-15 years but no better, would you want Lillard as a career Blazer PG? Would you start looking for a replacement or improvement? If so, when? Would you resign him to a post-rookie deal?

Even if Lillard doesn't improve; he's been a better point guard than all others since porter. 18/6 is a great line for a starting pg.

 

[blazerboy30]

What do you mean by "ceiling"?
Do you really mean he won't decrease his turnovers, won't learn to manage the clock, won't become even more of a leader, etc. Or do you actually mean he won't increase his points and assist numbers only?

 

[Reep]

I would be satisfied if he stays as is. I don't think his motor will allow that to happen though. Really, the only thing he needs is a bit more savvy.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

What do you mean by "ceiling"?
Do you really mean he won't decrease his turnovers, won't learn to manage the clock, won't become even more of a leader, etc. Or do you actually mean he won't increase his points and assist numbers only?

Let's say his intangibles get better (clock management, leadership), but strangely, his stats remain the same. Shooting percentage, turnover rate, rebounding, points, assists, etc. All basically the same, within a range of +/- 1.0 of any one stat.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

He's not close.

Wait until this team has a legit backup PG/SF/SF/PF/C on the roster.

We have yet to see him consistently play off the ball, this is a major strength of his. But when you have Smith/Price as the backup PG he can't.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

He's not close.

Wait until this team has a legit backup PG/SF/SF/PF/C on the roster.

This is such a good point; who a PG plays with affects their game more than any other position. The better your teammates are, the better you will play as a PG (there are always exceptions of course).

 

[blazerboy30]

Let's say his intangibles get better (clock management, leadership), but strangely, his stats remain the same. Shooting percentage, turnover rate, rebounding, points, assists, etc. All basically the same, within a range of +/- 1.0 of any one stat.

In that case, yes. I'd be happy with him as our career PG with his current offensive production, but improved intangibles.

 

[Ed O]

In that case, yes. I'd be happy with him as our career PG with his current offensive production, but improved intangibles.

Agreed. Until and unless he's the weak spot in the lineup and we're not good enough (somehow), I think we should be delighted by what he is now, and it's exciting to know this almost certainly is not his ceiling.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

Agreed. Until and unless he's the weak spot in the lineup and we're not good enough (somehow), I think we should be delighted by what he is now, and it's exciting to know this almost certainly is not his ceiling.

Ed O.

He was a 4 year college player. He's near his ceiling, according to your rules.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I don't think it is, but consider it a "what if" exercise.

If Lillard can perform at this level for 12-15 years but no better, would you want Lillard as a career Blazer PG? Would you start looking for a replacement or improvement? If so, when? Would you resign him to a post-rookie deal?

He'll be 23 starting next season, so a more realistic expectation is that he can probably sustain what he's done so far for probably 7 o 8 more years, asking for 18/7 past thirty usually gets pretty dodgy.

Regardless, if this is as good as it gets (in terms of percentages and efficiency) then that's "OK," but probably not enough to elevate this team to championship contention unless he can turn himself into an elite defender to go with his current level of offensive production.

Good news though, I think he's got it in him to be a multiple appearance all-star.

 

[Ed O]

He was a 4 year college player. He's near his ceiling, according to your rules.

I've never said that. My "rule" is that older players tend to be closer to their ceilings.

Sorry that any nuance tends to be lost on you.

Ed O.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

I've never said that. My "rule" is that older players tend to be closer to their ceilings.

Sorry that any nuance tends to be lost on you.

Ed O.

Isn't that exactly what he just said?

 

[Ed O]

Isn't that exactly what he just said?

TEND to be.

I use words for a reason.

Ed O.

 

[handiman]

TEND to be.

I use words for a reason.

That's some serious revisionist history.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think he's already gotten better as the season goes on. I don't think the guy will ever be on the level of a Rose or maybe even a Kyrie Irving, but I think he could easily be an All-Star.

Maybe a Baron Davis or Kevin Johnson.

 

[jlprk]

How about the opposite? What if Lillard's playing over his head? That's what this board keeps saying about Hickson.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I consider Terry Porter one of, if not the best PG to play for the Blazers. If Lillard's numbers stayed the same throughout his career, here would be the comparison, Per 36

Rk           Player From   To   G  GS    MP  FG  FGA  FG%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS
1    Damian Lillard 2013 2013  49  49  1890 6.1 14.5 .424 2.1 5.9 .360 2.8 3.3 .851 0.5 2.6 3.1 6.0 1.0 0.3 2.8 1.9 17.2
2      Terry Porter 1986 1995 758 613 23978 6.0 12.8 .470 1.2 3.0 .385 3.8 4.5 .846 0.8 3.1 3.9 8.0 1.8 0.1 2.8 2.2 17.0

I would take that

 

[Boise Blazer]

Ive said it before but as good as Dame is there are some very learnable and fixable things in his game. Without even factoring in how much better he will get with more time and experience there are a few things that will make him better next year.

1) As he get more and more comfortable taking the ball to the hole in the NBA he will get not only better at but will start to get more calls which gets more free throws and free throws always help a shooter get going. I can see that adding 2-4 ppg onto his average.

2) He would become deadly if he can be consistent with the tear drop in the lane a la Tony Parker. That would easily bring another 2-4 ppgs.

3) As number one and two improve that will help open up his outside game and he will get better shots and better shot selection as a result. Another 2 ppg

4) As his defense improves I could see him become a better steals guy which is another bucket a game.

5) If we can get or develop another solid starter and add a stronger bench this would easily help his assists numbers. His teammates miss so many wide open shots that he creates that he could easily average 8-9 asp.

6) And all of these things could be impacted even more so if he develops into "the" go to guy on this team.

So if you look at all of these things I could see in his prime Lillard averaging something like 24 ppg 8.5 asp

And if he hasnt proven already just by where he came from to where he is that he has the drive and work ethic to get better then I dont know it would take to prove it.

Finally keep in mind this it what I think he could do on this team. Nevermind what he could do on a bad team where he was the only option. Like Damon.

 

[magnifier661]

I know many are still complaining about his defense; but I've seen significant improvement in that area. I think he can become a good defender. Think about the conference he played college ball at. There weren't many premier guards he had to defend. He's still learning the timing and intangibles at the pace of the nba level.

Also this is supposed to be the rookie wall; yet he is still plugging away. Scouting has focused on him badly and yet he is still getting +18 per game. That says a lot a out his skill and heart.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I know many are still complaining about his defense; but I've seen significant improvement in that area. I think he can become a good defender. Think about the conference he played college ball at. There weren't many premier guards he had to defend. He's still learning the timing and intangibles at the pace of the nba level.

Also this is supposed to be the rookie wall; yet he is still plugging away. Scouting has focused on him badly and yet he is still getting +18 per game. That says a lot a out his skill and heart.

I haven't looked at his numbers, but he looks as if is is putting out a little more effort on defense, and is able to stay in front of his man a bit more

 

[illmatic99]

People used to say the same things about Roy his rookie year. And he went from a solid starter to a perennial all star as his career progressed.

 

[Nikolokolus]

People used to say the same things about Roy his rookie year. And he went from a solid starter to a perennial all star as his career progressed.

That doesn't mean that it's preordained that Lillard will get leaps and bounds better though. He might (and that would be awesome) but he might not (and that's OK too I suppose).

The thing that bodes well for Lillard is that he appears to be driven to be great and as the season has progressed so has he in subtle ways (slightly better on D, a little more judicious with the three point bombs, a little more driving tot he hoop). So even if his ceiling isn't All-NBA 1st or 2nd team down the line, he'll get at least a little better and probably has a few All-star appearances in him at some point.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The thing that bodes well for Lillard is that he appears to be driven to be great and as the season has progressed so has he in subtle ways (slightly better on D, a little more judicious with the three point bombs, a little more driving tot he hoop). So even if his ceiling isn't All-NBA 1st or 2nd team down the line, he'll get at least a little better and probably has a few All-star appearances in him at some point.

Agreed; let's be sure: I don't think he's near his ceiling. The most clear indication to me is that he's still performing well even though he's the focus of defenses, an automatic double basically from the second he hits half court, and still manages to find ways to break through and score, pass, and rebound like he did before he was scouted so heavily. That means he's improving as quickly as defenses are improving around him.

He's like a bacteria, evolving his game to stay alive, and the faster teams try new defensive schemes on him, the faster he'll improve. Soon, he'll have mastered them all, and will be unstoppable. Already teams are being scorched by forcing him right, which was a common scouting reaction ("he likes to go left, send him right"). Other than sending your two most mobile defenders against him on the top-of-the-key pick that LA sets, there's not much he can't already handle with ease. If we had players who could set better picks, we'd have that problem solved already, but letting Lillard learn and improve under less than perfect situations is even better.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

@damianlillard on the cover of this Month's Dime Magazine. First national cover for Dame!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Stone Cold.

 

[mook]

@damianlillard on the cover of this Month's Dime Magazine. First national cover for Dame!

Awesome. When was the last time a Blazer made a cover? I'm assuming it was either Roy or Oden.

I love seeing all the hype, as that's what gets refs to make the superstar calls.

His single biggest statistical improvement should be FTA's. If we can get a good backup PG, Lillard will have the luxury of knowing he can sit out a few minutes after getting knocked down. Then you add in the learning curve in the NBA (quickly identifying when a softy like Dirk is around the rim), the superstar calls, and the increasing use of Batum as the setup man. Everything points to him spending a lot more time looking to draw contact as he gets older.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Awesome. When was the last time a Blazer made a cover? I'm assuming it was either Roy or Oden.

I love seeing all the hype, as that's what gets refs to make the superstar calls.

His single biggest statistical improvement should be FTA's. If we can get a good backup PG, Lillard will have the luxury of knowing he can sit out a few minutes after getting knocked down. Then you add in the learning curve in the NBA (quickly identifying when a softy like Dirk is around the rim), the superstar calls, and the increasing use of Batum as the setup man. Everything points to him spending a lot more time looking to draw contact as he gets older.

 

[illmatic99]

He might (and that would be awesome) but he might not (and that's OK too I suppose).

That's what I'm saying. Just highlighting how we shouldn't be too quick in writing off any potential improvement from Dame.

 

[magnifier661]

Dame has all the makings of a superstar. I think he will be a west starter at least once in his career.