TUALATIN, Ore. — Nate McMillan cupped his hands together in a delicate gesture Thursday morning, fingers barely touching, as the Portland Trail Blazers coach described the point at which he sees his team in its rebuilding process.
McMillan is aware of how expectations have soared since the Blazers experienced an unexpected growth spurt last season. He understands the hype that is building around rookies Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez. But there also are realities that have gone largely overlooked this summer that clash with those expectations.
McMillan’s cupped hands illustrated the vision team officials had when they started rebuilding the franchise four years ago. It is just starting to come together, he explained. It is not complete. And yet, to many enthusiastic fans, the Blazers have already arrived.
“You’re expected to win this year,” McMillan said. “And in reality, you’re just getting this thing together.”
McMillan understands the excitement. For two years the Blazers have exceeded expectations, rising from the NBA’s worst team — an embarrassment often scoffed at by the national media — to a franchise the league is starting to hold up as one of its poster programs.
The quick turnaround — on and off the court — has ignited anticipation, to the point that McMillan has seen expectations and hype soaring past the Blazers’ realistic position. He pointed to a prediction he recently heard which suggested the Blazers would win two NBA championships in the next five years.
“I mean, you look at the Lakers and San Antonio, do they have two in the last five?” McMillan asked.
Well, San Antonio does — after assembling their dynasty over the last decade. And it took the Lakers six years to get back to the NBA Finals despite building around Kobe Bryant. To place the Blazers anywhere near those franchises is still a stretch.
Remember, this year’s roster has four rookies, and three (Oden, Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless) are expected to play significant roles. Last year’s team had two rookies, and neither was in the regular rotation.
The Blazers’ average age on opening day will be 23.9 years. Last year’s team — which drew headlines for being the youngest in franchise history — was slightly older at 24.1 years, and it did not have to face an early schedule stocked with playoff contenders.
McMillan can add several other questions to that list: Can Brandon Roy consistently play at an All-Star level? Will LaMarcus Aldridge continue to improve? There are high hopes for Oden and Fernandez, but what can realistically be expected? Rotations have to be determined; abilities have to be fully assessed. A long process of experimentation and evaluation still lies ahead.
The reality is that the Blazers’ development from .500 team to playoff contender has just begun. And that growth period — as Chicago and New Orleans have learned in the last three years — can be a turbulent, unpredictable ride. McMillan knows challenges still lie ahead. And he does not expect that view to be shared by many people outside the franchise.
“I don’t think we can control expectations from fans, because of where we’ve been and where we are now,” McMillan said. “People won’t look at things realistically. They won’t. ... Even though, I think we’ve gotten younger from last year to this year, people won’t even see that. And experience counts. It definitely counts in this league.”
So what is realistic to expect?
Well, a playoff spot should be the goal this year — though it cannot be guaranteed in the deep and difficult Western Conference. A winning record should also be reasonable.
Perhaps that is setting the bar too low. But at the same time, a sudden rise to prominence or a 50-win season may be getting too far ahead. Because there still are issues for this team to work out before it turns the corner, and there are likely to be many bumpy roads and steep growth curves to navigate.
And while McMillan sees the vision coming together, it would be more realistic to expect next season to be a transition toward that elite position rather than a coming of age.
