What Price Oden?

[BLAZER PROPHET]

At some point in time we have to consider Oden's next contract. He's played 82 games in his first 3 seasons. He's not fragile, but certainly injury prone. We have to start negotiating his new contract. Thus far, he's certainly done nothing to show he is a "max" contract player. That said, I think I can safely say that if we fail to offer him a max deal, some team out there will and he'll play out his contract here and leave. Maybe that's a good thing and maybe it's not. My thinking is that we will offer him 8-9 million per year on a 4 year contract.

 

[MIXUM]

then we are dumb. we are gonna get caught in a terrible contract.

 

[Sug]

At some point in time we have to consider Oden's next contract. He's played 82 games in his first 3 seasons. He's not fragile, but certainly injury prone. We have to start negotiating his new contract. Thus far, he's certainly done nothing to show he is a "max" contract player. That said, I think I can safely say that if we fail to offer him a max deal, some team out there will and he'll play out his contract here and leave. Maybe that's a good thing and maybe it's not. My thinking is that we will offer him 8-9 million per year on a 4 year contract.

Here is the flaw in your fear, we don't know how the CBA will read when it comes time to deal with his extension. If we assume that the "restricted" FA clause is kept in place to give the team that drafted the player the upper hand then we know for a fact that the Blazers can match any offer. I don't see them changing that rule since it is the owners best interest to keep it in place, mainly because it has made the draft a realistic method for rebuilding.

If we continue to assume that the "restricted" FA rule stays in place then we could also assume that the player does in fact have the right to not take any offers and simply play out his final season to become a "unrestricted" FA. Now if he decided to play out his final year without signing a deal then he could leave, but let's be honest about this. How in the heck could he even consider doing that given his injury situation.

I also think it will be interesting to see what happens with the CBA since it expires at the end of the 2011 season. There is no doubt that we will pick up his option on the 2010-2011 season, and here is the rub. If the rumor that the NBA is heading to a hard cap is true, then it might be a perfect bargaining tool for signing an extension in October of 2010. I think the general direction of where we are heading with the cap is going to be fairly well known by the middle of the 2010 summer since they will be working on it. There is also talk of making the hard cap retroactive, which would be a nightmare for most teams. They might however simply start the initial hard cap at a very high number and scale back over time to allow for a general shedding of salary rather than the train wreck that would be forcing teams to waive players. This issue will be the key issue of the new CBA, because the other rumor is that they are talking about putting a new salary structure in place. They are also talking about making the changes retroactive to the existing contracts.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

then we are dumb. we are gonna get caught in a terrible contract.

Mixum, what would you do with Oden? Trade him? Let him play out his contract?

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Here is the flaw in your fear, we don't know how the CBA will read when it comes time to deal with his extension. If we assume that the "restricted" FA clause is kept in place to give the team that drafted the player the upper hand then we know for a fact that the Blazers can match any offer. I don't see them changing that rule since it is the owners best interest to keep it in place, mainly because it has made the draft a realistic method for rebuilding.

If we continue to assume that the "restricted" FA rule stays in place then we could also assume that the player does in fact have the right to not take any offers and simply play out his final season to become a "unrestricted" FA. Now if he decided to play out his final year without signing a deal then he could leave, but let's be honest about this. How in the heck could he even consider doing that given his injury situation.

I also think it will be interesting to see what happens with the CBA since it expires at the end of the 2011 season. There is no doubt that we will pick up his option on the 2010-2011 season, and here is the rub. If the rumor that the NBA is heading to a hard cap is true, then it might be a perfect bargaining tool for signing an extension in October of 2010. I think the general direction of where we are heading with the cap is going to be fairly well known by the middle of the 2010 summer since they will be working on it. There is also talk of making the hard cap retroactive, which would be a nightmare for most teams. They might however simply start the initial hard cap at a very high number and scale back over time to allow for a general shedding of salary rather than the train wreck that would be forcing teams to waive players. This issue will be the key issue of the new CBA, because the other rumor is that they are talking about putting a new salary structure in place. They are also talking about making the changes retroactive to the existing contracts.

Oden can either become a restricted free agent after next season, or accept a one year "qualifying" contract (for a 5th year with us) and then become an unrestricted free agent. If we let it get to that stage and he gets over his injury issues, he'll be gone and we'll look like idiots.

 

[MIXUM]

trade him and resign camby.


i personally would try to trade him for our pg of future. but odens value is so bad.... we might not get more then a guy like travis diener.

 

[hasoos]

Sounds to me like we should get the buy one get 2 free special.

 

[Draco]

5yr 40million is more than plenty. The guy is averaging 8mpg over games he's been a Blazer. If another team offer's him a bigger contract then we can match it at that time. Preemptively overpaying a player over fear of another team's possible offer is what caused the Darius Miles contract mess. This off-season we should be trying to lock up Oden only if it's a good value, otherwise the team should wait.

There has not been a single premium player who has walked away from the team he drafted for less money when his rookie deal ended. The drafting team can always pay the most and players always take the most money on their first big contract.

 

[Sug]

Oden can either become a restricted free agent after next season, or accept a one year "qualifying" contract (for a 5th year with us) and then become an unrestricted free agent. If we let it get to that stage and he gets over his injury issues, he'll be gone and we'll look like idiots.

This totally depends on the new CBA.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

5yr 40million is more than plenty. The guy is averaging 8mpg over games he's been a Blazer. If another team offer's him a bigger contract then we can match it at that time. Preemptively overpaying a player over fear of another team's possible offer is what caused the Darius Miles contract mess. This off-season we should be trying to lock up Oden only if it's a good value, otherwise the team should wait.

There has not been a single premium player who has walked away from the team he drafted for less money when his rookie deal ended. The drafting team can always pay the most and players always take the most money on their first big contract.

I'm frequently in favor of locking up players a year early to try and avoid a bidding process that could drive up the contract price (see: what we did to Utah this past summer).

But in Oden's case, I definitely think it makes sense to let him play out another year before trying to negotiate the deal unless his agent comes to us with a really reasonable offer...which I highly doubt will happen. He's not going to want to lock in for 5 years at a "low" salary unless he really believes he's going to have a career ending injury soon...

 

[Nikolokolus]

There is no team ... and I do mean NO TEAM ... that would ever tie up 80 million dollars in Oden when he's proved to be so fragile. Frankly, if some team does offer Oden that kind of scratch and the Blazers were to try and match I'd lose all hope in this organization.

The team really needs to let him go into restricted free agency, especially with the CBA set to expire and salaries all but assured of going way down and a possible hard cap being implemented -- speaking of the hard cap, imagine if they blow their wad this summer on Oden, a hard cap goes into effect the year after and they can't hold on to Batum because of it?

 

[MIXUM]

i think let oden play out next season and go from there unless he takes a major discount...

at this point oden getting 80 million would be like giving blake a 5 year 60 million deal. its so bad for oden

 

[illmatic99]

I doubt Vulcan would approve of a long deal for Oden if they had trouble accepting a similar length contract for Brandon.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

There is no team ... and I do mean NO TEAM ... that would ever tie up 80 million dollars in Oden when he's proved to be so fragile. Frankly, if some team does offer Oden that kind of scratch and the Blazers were to try and match I'd lose all hope in this organization.

The team really needs to let him go into restricted free agency, especially with the CBA set to expire and salaries all but assured of going way down and a possible hard cap being implemented -- speaking of the hard cap, imagine if they blow their wad this summer on Oden, a hard cap goes into effect the year after and they can't hold on to Batum because of it?

I agree max money / $80M is insane... there's no way...

 

[STOMP]

5yr 40million is more than plenty. The guy is averaging 8mpg over games he's been a Blazer. If another team offer's him a bigger contract then we can match it at that time. Preemptively overpaying a player over fear of another team's possible offer is what caused the Darius Miles contract mess. This off-season we should be trying to lock up Oden only if it's a good value, otherwise the team should wait.

if memory serves you are wrong on this. By the time Portland got around to resigning UFA Miles, every other team with above MLE level capspace had spent it. Thats why the move made no sense to many of us here. With the benefit of hindsight that was probably just Nash being Nash...

to the OP, I would hope that they make an extension offer to Greg. 7-8M per for 4-5 years seems about right to me considering the history. Hopefully that leaves enough in the kitty for Nic and possibly Rudy when they become eligible following next season.

STOMP

 

[handiman]

I wonder if Oden would agree to 1 or 2-year contracts? He strikes me as feeling guilty for missing time, unlike many players that quietly collect their paycheck without a care in the world. As such, he probably feels like he owes the organization something and wouldn't mind proving himself. The team could pay more per year without the long-term obligation, should injuries remain an issue.

Besides, with Oden's oft stated interests outside of basketball (academics, dentistry, etc.), I'm not sure he'd be driven by the need to secure a big, guaranteed contract right away.

 

[RoyToy]

I'm thinking a 3 year extension for $21M - $24M.

You see where he's at when he's 25-26 and then you go from there. Bailing on him now would be extremely foolish. You almost have to keep him because he's so young.