In discussing whether or not the Blazers should trade JJ with my father-in-law, I laid it out to him in terms of extremes and what that would mean to the future of the roster (he still didn't bite...), and I thought it was an interesting and eye-opening perspective worth bringing here. While there's obviously plenty of wiggle room for things to happen between the following two extremes, I think it provides some decent insight on the decision...
Extreme #1: All in on J.J. Olshey decides to keep Hickson and lock him up long-term with most of our cap space, resigning himself to the fact that he won't be able to get the C upgrade he's wanting on the open market.
-Keeping JJ past the deadline, the team rallies around each other and makes the playoffs (remember we're talking extremes), but realistically are in over their heads and are bounced 6 games into the first round.
-Our draft pick ends up higher than its current protection and is shipped off to Charlotte.
-The front line we build around is now LMA, JJ and Meyers Leonard, and using what little cap room remains, Olshey picks up a bench scorer.
End Result: The downside is minimal roster improvements, lack of cap flexibility and banking on internal development of a LOT of guys, (not to mention a big investment in a guy who greatly disappointed when financially secure). The upside is roster continuity and cohesion - something very rare in the NBA these days. Ultimately, this doesn't seem like the path to a championship run to me...
Extreme #2: Olshey decides he HAS to trade JJ at the deadline. Knowing about his NTC, Olshey can only target teams with a solid shot at a ring (OKC, MIA, CHI, NYC, SA, LAC) and will be looking for expiring contracts, young/cheap players and picks. The following trades work with the above teams:
OKC w/ the potential of swapping some picks (I'd demand Toronto's guaranteed lotto pick)
CHI Do we have any interest in a high-potential rookie PG to back up Lillard? Who knows. We'd need them to throw in picks here. They also have a TPE of $5M so they could essentially just buy Hickson from us with that, not a ton of potential there...
MIA- nothing works w/ what we'd want
NYC- have a ton of big bodies, don't see a fit there, only player we'd want is Shumpert and don't see NYC giving him up.
SA- don't see a great fit w/ them straight up. We'd likely want Leonard, they have a lot of long term deals we wouldn't want...
LAC- another trade where we'd have to see a pick come back. Olshey would obviously want Bledsoe, but I have a hard time seeing them give him up leading into the playoffs...
EDIT: Hickson's from ATL and they could look to be buyers at the deadline to get into the playoff mix, so perhaps there's a fit there and either of these trades fit what we may be looking for...
So in trading Hickson, ideally we can bring back at least 2 young pieces - a cheap/young player and a pick. On top of that, selling him for cents on our current talent dollar, we'd likely miss out on the playoffs securing our own draft pick this year (adding another player/asset) AND have the ability to play Meyers more, hopefully furthering his development. Heading into the offseason, it's hard to envision us doing much worse with our cap room than a Hickson-level player, either by way of unbalanced trade or FA signing...
So comparing extremes, the important question to ask is, does this make us a title contender (otherwise, what's the point?):
#1 doesn't do much but keep the ship afloat, perhaps adding another bench piece or two.
#2 further develops a nice young piece (Leonard), improves our odds ad adding another cheap asset via the draft (our own pick), and adds another cheap young asset or two or three via a trade...
The talent in this upcoming draft is looking very much more like a brick than a pyramid, so 2 mid-round 1st round picks wouldn't be the worst thing in the world this year...
Extreme #1: All in on J.J. Olshey decides to keep Hickson and lock him up long-term with most of our cap space, resigning himself to the fact that he won't be able to get the C upgrade he's wanting on the open market.
-Keeping JJ past the deadline, the team rallies around each other and makes the playoffs (remember we're talking extremes), but realistically are in over their heads and are bounced 6 games into the first round.
-Our draft pick ends up higher than its current protection and is shipped off to Charlotte.
-The front line we build around is now LMA, JJ and Meyers Leonard, and using what little cap room remains, Olshey picks up a bench scorer.
End Result: The downside is minimal roster improvements, lack of cap flexibility and banking on internal development of a LOT of guys, (not to mention a big investment in a guy who greatly disappointed when financially secure). The upside is roster continuity and cohesion - something very rare in the NBA these days. Ultimately, this doesn't seem like the path to a championship run to me...
Extreme #2: Olshey decides he HAS to trade JJ at the deadline. Knowing about his NTC, Olshey can only target teams with a solid shot at a ring (OKC, MIA, CHI, NYC, SA, LAC) and will be looking for expiring contracts, young/cheap players and picks. The following trades work with the above teams:
OKC w/ the potential of swapping some picks (I'd demand Toronto's guaranteed lotto pick)
CHI Do we have any interest in a high-potential rookie PG to back up Lillard? Who knows. We'd need them to throw in picks here. They also have a TPE of $5M so they could essentially just buy Hickson from us with that, not a ton of potential there...
MIA- nothing works w/ what we'd want
NYC- have a ton of big bodies, don't see a fit there, only player we'd want is Shumpert and don't see NYC giving him up.
SA- don't see a great fit w/ them straight up. We'd likely want Leonard, they have a lot of long term deals we wouldn't want...
LAC- another trade where we'd have to see a pick come back. Olshey would obviously want Bledsoe, but I have a hard time seeing them give him up leading into the playoffs...
EDIT: Hickson's from ATL and they could look to be buyers at the deadline to get into the playoff mix, so perhaps there's a fit there and either of these trades fit what we may be looking for...
So in trading Hickson, ideally we can bring back at least 2 young pieces - a cheap/young player and a pick. On top of that, selling him for cents on our current talent dollar, we'd likely miss out on the playoffs securing our own draft pick this year (adding another player/asset) AND have the ability to play Meyers more, hopefully furthering his development. Heading into the offseason, it's hard to envision us doing much worse with our cap room than a Hickson-level player, either by way of unbalanced trade or FA signing...
So comparing extremes, the important question to ask is, does this make us a title contender (otherwise, what's the point?):
#1 doesn't do much but keep the ship afloat, perhaps adding another bench piece or two.
#2 further develops a nice young piece (Leonard), improves our odds ad adding another cheap asset via the draft (our own pick), and adds another cheap young asset or two or three via a trade...
The talent in this upcoming draft is looking very much more like a brick than a pyramid, so 2 mid-round 1st round picks wouldn't be the worst thing in the world this year...
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