What the #^(& if going on?

[riverman]

I was told we had an amazing bench.

we did...two of the legs are broken now though...we had the same talk in another thread

 

[BlazerWookee]

Any season is full of ebbs and flows and historically, the Blazers will go on some kind of hot streak before it is over. The latest 4th quarter collapse was just another difficult example. And sadly, even when that inevitable hot streak comes, that usually does not translate into the Playoffs, but for the sake of this discussion, let's look at this current stretch where things have really started to go south.

The Blazers are 3-7 in their last 10 games. They have one of the members of the Blazers Mt Rushmore, an uber-athletic SG, the best PF they have had in almost a decade, a solid center and a hustling freak of a SF. They are currently missing players from the bench, but that bench isn't playing when they get down 9-0 to start a game against Golden State, or get outscored 15-2 to close the game to the equally mediocre Pacers.

In the last 10 games:
Dame : 76-195 = .389 FG%...31-103 = .30% 3Pt%
Ant: 69-166 = .415 FG%...32-94 = .34% 3Pt%

Rest of the Team:
DAL 30-65
HOU 22-44
OKC 28-55
OKC 29-49
DEN 23-43
CHA 32-53
GSW 22-41
DET 30-52
MIN 20-45
IND 24-50

In those 10 games, the rest of the team is a combined 260-497 = .523 FG%. That is a drastic difference from the combined .401 that Dame/Ant are shooting. Of course, the majority of the defense is designed towards Dame first, and then Ant, but perhaps even more of a reason to give the guys who are shooting a higher percentage on less contested shots.....more shots.

There is also a lack of production from the bench, although not a lack of efficiency. But when I went back and looked at much of the tape, most of the times the bench is in, Ant is often doing a disappointing imitation of MeJ and there are few opportunities for the bench for the time they are in there. Then when Dame is in with the bench, Dame is a more willing passer, but you see all the young kids deferring back to Dame far too often even when they have good opportunities. Between the two of those situations, much of the bench doesn't shoot that much even though when they do, they are converting and a very solid rate on many nights.

Nurk has been solid and happily more consistent although there are still stretches that make me pull what is left of my hair out. Equally as frustrating is Harts almost abject unwillingness to shoot at times, even when he is wide open.

Grant has consistently been the most effective shooter on the team, but often gets quite a bit fewer attempts than the starting guards who in the 10-game stretch are taking a whopping 42% of the shots. 42% of the shots shooting .401 FG% versus the rest of the team shooting 48% of the shots shooting .523%.

And on most nights, the players shooting the much higher percentage, are asked to play the majority of the defense.

Now Dame and Ant have the ability to get scorching hot, but rarely do they do it on the same night. They are at their best when they have the ball in their hands, even though they are both very good spot up shooters. So it limits their offensive effectiveness, while their defensive effectiveness has never been a strength.

Dame and Ant even being 'average' offensively during this time would have changed a 3-7 record into something more likely closer to 7-3 or even 8-2.

From a larger team standpoint, the insane amount of TOs will continue to hold this team back. The starters have 22 TOs in the last 2 games. I expect it from the kids....Walker, Sharpe, Johnson, but the veterans are treating the ball like a greased pig. Chauncey has his issues, but these players know how to play and some of the passes they are making you won't see at most college games. They players know what they are supposed to do...they are just not executing.

And then there is the defense. They just aren't long enough or disciplined enough to be effective. Dame and Ant start at a deficit on most nights. Hart is solid, but he is out of position. That leaves Grant to cover up more than he is able to, and Nurkic too often gets stuck out too far from the basket and doesn't have the mobility to recover. Given the lack of defense behind him when he gets out that far, it is a failed recipe at best.

How to fix it?

To start with, Dame and Ant have to start hitting shots like they are being paid to do. That might sound a bit direct, but it is reality. They are taking up a massive amount of the cap, and not producing at an efficient level. Add in the poor defense, and it is definitely a not a great return on the dollar per cap percentage.

Secondly, this is a work in progress as Cronin has said. It will be very interesting to see what happens by the trade deadline and then this off-season. They need more length, more defense and more of a veteran or aggressive presence off the bench.

Sadly, until then, we are at much the same place as we have been season after season for years. We can cheer for our team, but it can also certainly be frustrating at times. You want to see growth, and regardless of whatever moves have been made, they seem stagnant season over season.

Maybe the growth will have to come from Ant, Shaedon, Walker, Keon, etc, and if that is the case, we may be waiting for another couple of years.

Scouting matters.

 

[calvin natt]

The franchises best player of all time is the main thing holding them back?

Maybe. It has nothing to do with how good he is. We’ve beaten that to death. He’s awesome. But this team will never win a championship with him as the centerpiece. Most teams don’t win championships with the best player being a PG. Curry, Magic and Isiah Thomas. 30+ years. He eats up a ton of money. I love him. But this is what it is. New coaches new GMs new players, he’s the only constant. On one hand the only reason they are competitive is Lillard over the past decade. And yet he’s the main guy and they can’t get out of Blazer land of bottom of the playoffs and first/second round at best. (Except once).

 

[Tince]

Maybe. It has nothing to do with how good he is. We’ve beaten that to death. He’s awesome. But this team will never win a championship with him as the centerpiece. Most teams don’t win championships with the best player being a PG. Curry, Magic and Isiah Thomas. 30+ years. He eats up a ton of money. I love him. But this is what it is. New coaches new GMs new players, he’s the only constant. On one hand the only reason they are competitive is Lillard over the past decade. And yet he’s the main guy and they can’t get out of Blazer land of bottom of the playoffs and first/second round at best. (Except once).

If the team can never win with the best player they've ever had, that means we need to obtain a better player than him? That's a huge ask.

Obviously, I disagree with your theory that the Blazers can't win with him as our best player. It's about who we surround him with that I believe is the issue.

 

[wizenheimer]

If the team can never win with the best player they've ever had, that means we need to obtain a better player than him? That's a huge ask.

Obviously, I disagree with your theory that the Blazers can't win with him as our best player. It's about who we surround him with that I believe is the issue.

apparently, the plan is to just dump the best player the team has had, and hope for the best. But considering there were about 30 years between Clyde and Dame, the wait for the plan to materialize would likely be measured in decades rather than years

 

[cheesehoff]

We have one PG on the team. I believe having a true backup PG would give the second unit clearer roles. I think we miss Winslow quite a bit because he is the only vocal leader in the second unit. When you have 3 or 4 guys that alternately bring the ball up the floor, there won't be any consistency or fluidity.
And there's that big old elephant in the room. Dame and Ant won't work. Ant cannot run a unit! He is not vocal, doesn't get the team in any offensive sets and there's that defense.
As far as their shooting woes go, I think the biggest problem is Dame and/or Ant taking too many long, difficult shots early in the shot clock. Those shots that they (especially Dame) take with 18 or 19 seconds left on the shot clock are killers. They'll make them occasionally but most of the time it's just like a turnover except the defense doesn't have to do anything but grab the rebound.

 

[MickZagger]

We have one PG on the team. I believe having a true backup PG would give the second unit clearer roles. I think we miss Winslow quite a bit because he is the only vocal leader in the second unit. When you have 3 or 4 guys that alternately bring the ball up the floor, there won't be any consistency or fluidity.
And there's that big old elephant in the room. Dame and Ant won't work. Ant cannot run a unit! He is not vocal, doesn't get the team in any offensive sets and there's that defense.
As far as their shooting woes go, I think the biggest problem is Dame and/or Ant taking too many long, difficult shots early in the shot clock. Those shots that they (especially Dame) take with 18 or 19 seconds left on the shot clock are killers. They'll make them occasionally but most of the time it's just like a turnover except the defense doesn't have to do anything but grab the rebound.

I feel like having a true backup PG is like a decade long void of this franchise. Who was the last true PG we had coming off the bench. A facilitator. Eric Maynor?

 

[MickZagger]

Why can’t we have a Boston GM and trade a guy like Aaron Nesmith and Daniel Theis for Malcolm Brogdon? Instead of the other way around type of moves

 

[wizenheimer]

I feel like having a true backup PG is like a decade long void of this franchise. Who was the last true PG we had coming off the bench. A facilitator. Eric Maynor?

Mo Williams in 2013-14
Steve Blake in 2014-15

 

[MickZagger]

Mo Williams in 2013-14
Steve Blake in 2014-15

So nearly a decade

 

[wizenheimer]

So nearly a decade

yeah, just about. And Blake was pretty much done by that season

I'm convinced Olshey didn't want to give Stotts a good backup PG option because that would have been competition for CJ's minutes

 

[blazerkor]

I kind of feel like Ace Ventura right now except instead of screaming,

I keep screaming, "Ant is CJ!!!" I know they have differences in their games but for all intents and purposes they have very similar reasons why they're the same bad fit next to Dame.

 

[cheesehoff]

What is really confusing is that this team has so much mediocre talent at the 2-4 positions. There is 1 true PG and 2 true C's. Most teams carry 3 of each because of the importance of those positions. Why not consolidate to acquire a better fit at starting SG/SF, a true backup PG and useable depth at center.
Trading Ant could solve at least one of those needs and probably two.
Now that GPIII is back, there is even more of a log jam and he doesn't really fill a need.

 

[TBpup]

IMO, it hasn't been 30 years between Drexler and Dame to have a great player. Injuries robbed us from seeing what Oden could become, but 29 GM's believed he had generational talent. Similarly, what would Roy have been if he had had knees? Sadly, we either didn't get to see much of them, or were robbed of how good they could have been if healthy.

Someone pointed out the PG's that had led their teams to championships in the last 40 years. Magic - an all-time great on a different level than Dame and almost anyone else to ever play the position. Steph - the greatest shooter in the NBA to this point, and Zeke, probably the closest comparison to Dame, but that makes one similar type guard in 40 years. Not exactly a blueprint for success. Add to that a similar type player who doesn't play defense (unlike what Thomas had next to him) and it breeds exactly what we have had for years.

We either have to get 3 long, very good defenders who can also stretch the court, or we have to move Ant to get some size and defense next to Dame. That has been the case for some time, but we keep running out these teams led by 2 smaller guards who are best when they have the ball in their hands and don't play a tone of D. It is something that has never met with success that I can remember, and if it has, it was much more likely the exception that proves the rule.

Hopefully Cronin can finally do something about this that changes the direction, makeup and identity of the team....because yet once again, it is NOT working.

 

[calvin natt]

If the team can never win with the best player they've ever had, that means we need to obtain a better player than him? That's a huge ask.

Obviously, I disagree with your theory that the Blazers can't win with him as our best player. It's about who we surround him with that I believe is the issue.

I don’t think - think - that you and others don’t understand that there is more to it than just being the best player or a great player. Are there not different types of players? Since he’s the best Blazer maybe we haven’t had enough great players? Maybe Walton was? Do you think scoring, high volume, weak defending point guards is the way to go? Has that ever happened in the history of the NBA? So yeah they need to surround him with another superstar. They would have had to do it in one of these drafts over the last ten years. They aren’t winning a championship with him as their best player.

 

[calvin natt]

apparently, the plan is to just dump the best player the team has had, and hope for the best. But considering there were about 30 years between Clyde and Dame, the wait for the plan to materialize would likely be measured in decades rather than years

Ridiculous

 

[blazerkor]

I don’t think - think - that you and others don’t understand that there is more to it than just being the best player or a great player. Are there not different types of players? Since he’s the best Blazer maybe we haven’t had enough great players? Maybe Walton was? Do you think scoring, high volume, weak defending point guards is the way to go? Has that ever happened in the history of the NBA? So yeah they need to surround him with another superstar. They would have had to do it in one of these drafts over the last ten years. They aren’t winning a championship with him as their best player.

I personally don't think that putting scoring, high volume, weak defending small guards next to Dame is the way to go but it the way we have gone since Wes. I would just like to see what happens if we put a roster together that complements Dame. I don't know if you watched the game this afternoon but Dame is having a high level defensive season. He has to stop turning the ball over at the ridiculously high rate he has been but other than that, I personally think this is the best Dame has ever looked.

Get the guy a roster around him that makes sense!

 

[Tince]

I don’t think - think - that you and others don’t understand that there is more to it than just being the best player or a great player. Are there not different types of players? Since he’s the best Blazer maybe we haven’t had enough great players? Maybe Walton was? Do you think scoring, high volume, weak defending point guards is the way to go? Has that ever happened in the history of the NBA? So yeah they need to surround him with another superstar. They would have had to do it in one of these drafts over the last ten years. They aren’t winning a championship with him as their best player.

I can think of a scoring, high volume, weak defending PG who has done real well in the championship department the last 7-8 years. But he has been surrounded with the right talent, which is my point.

I agree the Blazers are unlikely to win a championship in the next 5 years, even more unlikely if he's not on the roster either. In fact, they'll probably be worse. And let's be real, the Blazers probably aren't winning a championship in the next 15 years regardless of if Dame is no longer on the roster.

I'm also not saying Dame is untradable, but getting rid of him for the sole reason that he has failed to lead the Blazers to the championship (like Clyde, Sheed, Pippen, Sabonis, Roy, Aldridge, etc). just makes no sense to me. Like every player on the roster, you trade him if the assets you get in return are of greater value. You don't trade him because he hasn't won a championship, IMO.

 

[Natebishop3]

And let's be real, the Blazers probably aren't winning a championship in the next 15 years regardless if when Dame is no longer on the roster.

This is why I have lost a lot of my love for the NBA. It's like watching the WWE. What's the point? At least with the NFL you have no idea who's going to win the SuperBowl from year to year.

 

[Tince]

This is why I have lost a lot of my love for the NBA. It's like watching the WWE. What's the point? At least with the NFL you have no idea who's going to win the SuperBowl from year to year.

I get what you're saying, but comparing it to the WWE is a stretch for me.

When did you start to love the NBA? I'm assuming there were dynasties then as well. Here are the number of different teams to win a title in each decade:

80's - 4 teams
90's - 5 teams
00's - 6 teams
10's - 7 teams

 

[Natebishop3]

I get what you're saying, but comparing it to the WWE is a stretch for me.

When did you start to love the NBA? I'm assuming there were dynasties then as well. Here are the number of different teams to win a title in each decade:

80's - 4 teams
90's - 5 teams
00's - 6 teams
10's - 7 teams

When I was a kid and naive.

 

[Chris Craig]

I kind of feel like Ace Ventura right now except instead of screaming,

I keep screaming, "Ant is CJ!!!" I know they have differences in their games but for all intents and purposes they have very similar reasons why they're the same bad fit next to Dame.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

This is why I have lost a lot of my love for the NBA. It's like watching the WWE. What's the point? At least with the NFL you have no idea who's going to win the SuperBowl from year to year.

Who is going to win the NBA Championship this year?

 

[Fairly-Hard]

I feel like having a true backup PG is like a decade long void of this franchise. Who was the last true PG we had coming off the bench. A facilitator. Eric Maynor?

Shabazz?

 

[SharpesTriumph]

yeah, just about. And Blake was pretty much done by that season

I'm convinced Olshey didn't want to give Stotts a good backup PG option because that would have been competition for CJ's minutes

I'm convinced when a team's best player plays PG and arguably second best player also backs up that same position prioritizing a third player to play the teams strongest position is a stupid idea.

Blazers were starting Mario Hezonja and Antony Tolliver at forward, but posters here wonder why the 3rd string PG wasn't a focus of the teams roster building???

 

[Fairly-Hard]

I'm convinced when a team's best player plays PG and arguably second best player also backs up that same position prioritizing a third player to play the teams strongest position is a stupid idea.

Blazers were starting Mario Hezonja and Antony Tolliver at forward, but posters here wonder why the 3rd string PG wasn't a focus of the teams roster building???

They also were trying to save Melo's Legacy.

 

[Cugel]

Ah Hezonja and Tolliver...more classic Neil. I forgot about those two as and NBA fan should.


I am hoping the team can just win every other game for the remainder of Dame's tenure. Then they can reboot. They cannot trade him and seriously which team would take Dame? Seriously? Who has assets but is just dying to take a 50mil a year guy? Nobody, maybe the Lakers. I keep reading how he would bring a haul but not seeing how that would work. Please just list a team that would take Dame in a heartbeat and give back multiple FRPs? Just one seriously. The only one I see is the Lakers.

So Portland will have to playback the primary elements of this roster until he decides to throw in the towel. Ant could be traded.

 

[wizenheimer]

I'm convinced when a team's best player plays PG and arguably second best player also backs up that same position prioritizing a third player to play the teams strongest position is a stupid idea.

I don't know what you mean by "prioritizing". Do you mean 1st on the priority list?...yeah, that's stupid but that's not what anybody was saying except maybe you as a counter-argument

CJ was the backup PG by default and he was a worse, diluted version of Dame who failed to run the team's offense at any consistent level. His backup PG time is what got him the nickname of MeJ. (Napier and Curry were much more tiny SG's than PG's)

Ant is the same type of backup PG as CJ, with less MeJ; at least he is to this point.

Portland's backup PG this year is Winslow, not Ant (Blazers are 3-6 without Winslow). Hart is as much the backup PG as Ant, and both Hart & Winslow average more assists per possession than Ant

Is a solid backup PG a luxury? maybe...generically. But the consistent and often disastrous ways the offense failed in the Dame/CJ years when Dame went to the bench suggested that adding a solid backup PG option might have been a idea worth trying (prioritizing?). Certainly a better idea than Olshey's idiot ideas of grossly overpaying Evan Turner or cheap-screwing Hezonja into quasi-PG roles at rotation positions that didn't threaten CJ's minutes

 

[Sheldon Shape]

The answer is fatigue.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

The answer is fatigue.

Yes ^^^^^^ is the correct answer.