What to do with Leonard before Oct. 31?

[BrianFromWA]

brings up an interesting GM dilemma...
Right now, Leonard is about to enter his 4th season. He is eligible for an extension (up to the max, but not the 5-yr Designated Player Max, b/c Dame just got the only one we can give out), and can sign by Oct 31. I would imagine that right now he could be locked up for cheaper than he will as an RFA next year where every team can bid for him (especially b/c 18 or so teams will have max cap space and no one to use it on...why not max out a RFA and make it expensive?). For cap purposes, he will (unless he plays 2000 minutes, which actually could be likely if he stays healthy and plays well) be a 7.6M or so Free Agent Amount cap hold (even though his QO is only about 4.1M, it's the higher of the two for cap holds).

So the question is: do you
a) try to lock him up long-term for "cheap" right now (underneath his 7.6M cap hold),
b) lock him up if his requested contract is over 7.6M (and it very well could be, if RoLo is getting 13M)
c) let him go to RFA by giving the Qualifying Offer of 4.1M or so and seeing what the market is for him (knowing it could likely be close to a max for us to match)
d) look to shop him now, since we have a bunch of bigs.

The issue with b) is that, if we're going to pay him a boatload anyway, we could do what Kawhi did this year with the Spurs...his cap hold was 7.6M and even though everyone knew he was getting max (or really close), they got to keep an extra 9M or so in cap space by having a lower cap number and waiting to sign until after all the other FAs did.

 

[B-Roy]

http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/the-blazers-should-extend-meyers-leonard.285191/

EXTEND HIM

 

[magnifier661]

I say let's extend him

 

[Natebishop3]

The guy has definitely put down roots. I think he'd be happy to get an extension.

 

[Nikolokolus]

This is a prove it year. Give him the QO, let him get to RFA and let the market decide what he's worth. The team would be stupid to extend him early, especially since they still have the leverage.

 

[BrianFromWA]

http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/the-blazers-should-extend-meyers-leonard.285191/

EXTEND HIM

Sorry B-Roy, I never saw that thread. You put way more into it than I did.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Save a few bucks and see if he'd take 4/40. If not, be prepared to max him next year, teams will be falling all over themselves to max anyone with a pulse.

 

[illmatic99]

This is a prove it year. Give him the QO, let him get to RFA and let the market decide what he's worth. The team would be stupid to extend him early, especially since they still have the leverage.

I don't think it's stupid at all. A big man with his skills, even if his improvement is marginal will be worth ~8-12 mil. I think he and his agent realize this and we won't be able to get him for cheap. But if he does have a massive improvement, he will get near max from one of the 25 other teams with space next year, and we will have to match that.

 

[B-Roy]

This is a prove it year. Give him the QO, let him get to RFA and let the market decide what he's worth. The team would be stupid to extend him early, especially since they still have the leverage.

And risk him outplaying his current value? If you can get him on a reasonable (or even slightly overpaid) contract why not? If this season has proved anything, it's that capspace means shit in Portland, who cares about the flexibility his QO gives us next season?

Look at all the crazy deals handed out this off-season, extending Leonard now is a calculated risk so that he doesn't get something crazy like that next year when more than half the league is going to have crazy money to throw around. You best believe he's going to get paid.

Oh and I just realized the devil is in my avi. I need to get a new one GAH.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

He's worth similar money to these guys, imho.

http://bkref.com/tiny/x5Ll7

Here's some recent performers in the same age range and PER range.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I don't think it's stupid at all. A big man with his skills, even if his improvement is marginal will be worth ~8-12 mil. I think he and his agent realize this and we won't be able to get him for cheap. But if he does have a massive improvement, he will get near max from one of the 25 other teams with space next year, and we will have to match that.

Be honest. How likely is it that Leonard becomes a max worthy player in the next year? And even in the unlikely event that he does make that kind of leap and some team throws a ton of money at him, if the Blazers think he's worth it then all they have to do is match and theoretically he'd be worth it right?

There's really no rush. Let him prove it and earn his deal, it's a win-win. Bidding against yourself is not a great long-term strategy.

 

[illmatic99]

Be honest. How likely is it that Leonard becomes a max worthy player in the next year? And even in the unlikely event that he does make that kind of leap and some team throws a ton of money at him, if the Blazers think he's worth it then all they have to do is match and theoretically he'd be worth it right?

There's really no rush. Let him prove it and earn his deal, it's a win-win. Bidding against yourself is not a great long-term strategy.

I think it is extremely feasible to see him put up 15/10 with great percentages next season. And at age 23, he will warrant a near max contract.

The benefit in locking him up for ~8 mil is greater than the risk of us "overpaying" for a guy who has stagnates in his development.

 

[magnifier661]

The QO will be an anomaly because of the huge jump in cap. The market will outbid him well over what we could extend him for now.

 

[Nikolokolus]

He's worth similar money to these guys, imho.

http://bkref.com/tiny/x5Ll7

Here's some recent performers in the same age range and PER range.

Sort that list by Win Shares. The problem I see with Leonard is that he hasn't played enough to prove that he's worth a huge contract.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Sort that list by Win Shares. The problem I see with Leonard is that he hasn't played enough to prove that he's worth a huge contract.

Unfortunately for us, that's not his fault.

 

[BBert]

Extend him. I don't care about the dollar amount, it will be a cheap investment/gamble either way.

 

[Nikolokolus]

The QO will be an anomaly because of the huge jump in cap. The market will outbid him well over what we could extend him for now.

The QO is limited, it doesn't just grow exponentially just because the cap is raised.

In order to make their free agent a restricted free agent, a team must submit a qualifying offer to the player between the day following the last game of the NBA Finals and June 30. The qualifying offer is a standing offer for a one-year guaranteed contract, which becomes a regular contact if the player decides to sign it. This ensures that the team does not gain the right of first refusal without offering a contract themselves. The amount of the qualifying offer for players on rookie "scale" contracts is based on the player's draft position. The qualifying offer for all other players must be for 125% of the player's previous salary, or the player's minimum salary (see question number 16) plus $200,000, whichever is greater. However, a player may qualify for a higher or lower qualifying offer based on whether or not he met the "starter criteria" in the previous season, or in the average of the previous two seasons. The starter criteria are based on starting 41 games or playing at least 2,000 minutes in the regular season1.

 

[Sinobas]

I'd extend him now before he's solidified himself into a huge pay raise.

 

[magnifier661]

The QO is limited, it doesn't just grow exponentially just because the cap is raised.

No, I mean the QO to see what the market decides will be the anomaly. There will be every team in the league with cap space, meaning you aren't bidding against a few teams with cap space.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Unfortunately for us, that's not his fault.

Sure it was. He wasn't good enough to seize the starter's job.

 

[andalusian]

I think that if you can lock him up at up to 9m/year, you should do it. It is the going rate for athletic bigs that can shoot - and if the Blazers value him as much as I think they do - it is probably going to be a discount on what he will be worth.

 

[Nikolokolus]

No, I mean the QO to see what the market decides will be the anomaly. There will be every team in the league with cap space, meaning you aren't bidding against a few teams with cap space.

But the amount of money other team's can offer him is limited. Even if some team came along and offered him max money (which I see as a remote possibility) the Blazers can still match, and let's say for the sake of argument he proves that he's worth that kind of money, then what's the harm to the Blazers in matching at that point?

 

[illmatic99]

In the playoffs, his WS/48 was double Rolo's.

 

[magnifier661]

But the amount of money other team's can offer him is limited. Even if some team came along and offered him max money (which I see as a remote possibility) the Blazers can still match, and let's say for the sake of argument he proves that he's worth that kind of money, then what's the harm to the Blazers in matching at that point?

But my argument isn't "no problem matching" as in "saving 8 mil in cap locking him now". What harm would it be to have him at 9mil a season?

 

[B-Roy]

Sure it was. He wasn't good enough to seize the starter's job.

Okay, he wasn't better than he who shall not be named.

What's your point?

 

[Nikolokolus]

In the playoffs, his WS/48 was double Rolo's.

C'mon. a small sample like that doesn't mean shit in statistics.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Okay, he wasn't better than he who shall not be named.

What's your point?

He's ostensibly a center not a power-forward right?

 

[illmatic99]

But the amount of money other team's can offer him is limited. Even if some team came along and offered him max money (which I see as a remote possibility) the Blazers can still match, and let's say for the sake of argument he proves that he's worth that kind of money, then what's the harm to the Blazers in matching at that point?

What do you mean? With the cap jump, like 25 teams will have max capspace, and I'd venture more than just a few teams would gamble on an athletic big that can shoot. Meaning there will be a bidding war for him, meaning the demand will just drive the price that we'd have to match higher.

 

[B-Roy]

He's ostensibly a center not a power-forward right?

He primarily played PF last year, and his skillset doesn't blend well at C with the other guy. What's wrong with that?

 

[andalusian]

He's ostensibly a center not a power-forward right?

He does not play like a center. I think that we started to see more of him when the organization realized that he is a PF.