What to do with Leonard before Oct. 31?

[illmatic99]

He primarily played PF last year, and his skillset doesn't blend well at C with the other guy. What's wrong with that?

Sidebar: We need a name for this fool. I cringe when I type "LA." He doesn't deserve that.

 

[BBert]

Sidebar: We need a name for this fool. I cringe when I type "LA." He doesn't deserve that.

Time for a new "LaMarcus Aldridge Nickname" thread?

 

[Nikolokolus]

What do you mean? With the cap jump, like 25 teams will have max capspace, and I'd venture more than just a few teams would gamble on an athletic big that can shoot.

Let me propose two scenarios with the QO on the table.
1. Meyers plays out the year and becomes the most improved player in the league, puts up 15/10 and morphs into a legit high quality center/forward. Some team comes along and tries to max him out. Big deal, we match because he'll actually be worth the contract.
2. Meyers plays out the year and has just a so-so season, flashes occasionally but just doesn't put it all together. Some crazy team comes along and maxes him on potential alone (wildly unlikely IMO) the Blazers decided they don't want to match because they don't think he's worth it, instead relying on the development of Vonleh, Plumlee and Davis and whatever other players they might pick up in the draft or via trade, etc. Again, no big deal because Meyers probably isn't going to be the all-star running mate this team needs to reach the next level anyway.

Where's the risk in letting the market decide?

 

[B-Roy]

Let me propose two scenarios with the QO on the table.
1. Meyers plays out the year and becomes the most improved player in the league, puts up 15/10 and morphs into a legit high quality center/forward. Some team comes along and tries to max him out. Big deal, we match because he'll actually be worth the contract.
2. Meyers plays out the year and has just a so-so season, flashes occasionally but just doesn't put it all together. Some crazy team comes along and maxes him on potential alone (wildly unlikely IMO) the Blazers decided they don't want to match because they don't think he's worth it, instead relying on the development of Vonleh, Plumlee and Davis and whatever other players they might pick up in the draft or via trade, etc. Again, no big deal because Meyers probably isn't going to be the all-star running mate this team needs to reach the next level anyway.

Where's the risk in letting the market decide?

Uh no, it's not all-star or bust for Leonard. If he has a so-so season and gets maxed out based on potential the team will (and should) still match because

1. There's a premium on potential, he'll only be 24 by the time 16-17 starts.
2. We don't have any fucking talent on this team, any sort of talent we have, we should work to retain.

 

[illmatic99]

Let me propose two scenarios with the QO on the table.
1. Meyers plays out the year and becomes the most improved player in the league, puts up 15/10 and morphs into a legit high quality center/forward. Some team comes along and tries to max him out. Big deal, we match because he'll actually be worth the contract.
2. Meyers plays out the year and has just a so-so season, flashes occasionally but just doesn't put it all together. Some crazy team comes along and maxes him on potential alone (wildly unlikely IMO) the Blazers decided they don't want to match because they don't think he's worth it, instead relying on the development of Vonleh, Plumlee and Davis and whatever other players they might pick up in the draft or via trade, etc. Again, no big deal because Meyers probably isn't going to be the all-star running mate this team needs to reach the next level anyway.

Where's the risk in letting the market decide?

It's within the opportunity cost.

Paying him 20 mil when we can potentially get him for half that means we have less for another substantial piece.

(also, I find it very hard to imagine that we would let him walk... regardless of price)

 

[magnifier661]

Let me propose two scenarios with the QO on the table.
1. Meyers plays out the year and becomes the most improved player in the league, puts up 15/10 and morphs into a legit high quality center/forward. Some team comes along and tries to max him out. Big deal, we match because he'll actually be worth the contract.
2. Meyers plays out the year and has just a so-so season, flashes occasionally but just doesn't put it all together. Some crazy team comes along and maxes him on potential alone (wildly unlikely IMO) the Blazers decided they don't want to match because they don't think he's worth it, instead relying on the development of Vonleh, Plumlee and Davis and whatever other players they might pick up in the draft or via trade, etc. Again, no big deal because Meyers probably isn't going to be the all-star running mate this team needs to reach the next level anyway.

Where's the risk in letting the market decide?

Or 2.) We sign Meters to a 9mil x 5 year contract now and he blows up to a 15-10 player? Helluva deal

 

[Nikolokolus]

He primarily played PF last year, and his skillset doesn't blend well at C with the other guy. What's wrong with that?

not according to 82games.com
http://www.82games.com/1415/14POR18.HTM

 

[B-Roy]

not according to 82games.com
http://www.82games.com/1415/14POR18.HTM

I literally don't care what 82games says, and neither should you if you watched the games last year.

He played alongside Lopez and Kaman mostly. He was subbed for "that guy". He mostly guarded opposing PFs when he played. If 82games chooses to classify him as a center during all his stints then they are stupid and it's wrong.

He mainly played C during the playoffs though.

 

[Draco]

I'd extend him right around his cap hold. So starting at about $8 million or so. That would provide an excellent value if he fulfills some of his potential; but at the same time is a manageable sized contract if he falls short of what we hope.

If he wants more, such as $10 million then wait until he's a restricted free agent next year. $10+ million is beginning to be a sizeable contract and has more downside risk. If he breaks out yes we could get stuck paying the max. But at that price I think its worth it to get a full year glimpse of him on a roster where he will have ample playing opportunities.

 

[lawai'a]

I literally don't care what 82games says, and neither should you if you watched the games last year.

He played alongside Lopez and Kaman mostly. He was subbed for "that guy". He mostly guarded opposing PFs when he played. If 82games chooses to classify him as a center during all his stints then they are stupid and it's wrong.

He mainly played C during the playoffs though.

and did it well

 

[illmatic99]

Zach Lowe:
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/welcome-to-extensionville-the-nbas-next-big-money-community/

Meyers Leonard: Any 7-foot-1 dude who rips 42 percent from deep is going to draw interest, and Leonard hit that mark last season while jacking nearly five triples per 36 minutes — and upgrading his defense from “completely clueless” to “apparently aware that a game is happening.” Remember: Leonard had barely played serious basketball before entering the NBA. He probably won’t shoot as well in a larger role for a bad Portland team, but if he sniffs 40 percent again, suitors will come calling.

The Blazers have a clean cap sheet, and an extension that looks nutty now — something like three years, $21 million — might look genius in six months. Leonard’s new agents at CAA surely know this, which is why they could push for more until the Blazers just shrug and let Leonard test the market.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

and upgrading his defense from “completely clueless” to “apparently aware that a game is happening.+

Hahahahahaha!

 

[blue9]

Even if some team came along and offered him max money (which I see as a remote possibility) the Blazers can still match, and let's say for the sake of argument he proves that he's worth that kind of money, then what's the harm to the Blazers in matching at that point?

Enes. Kanter.
Is he a MAX player? No. Did we offer him a MAX contract? Yes. Why? To screw with OKC.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Enes. Kanter.
Is he a MAX player? No. Did we offer him a MAX contract? Yes. Why? To screw with OKC.

As much of sieve as Kanter is on defense, the guy was a putting up 19/11 as a starter. Leonard has yet to show he's even remotely capable of that kind of production (and it's not like people are going to snatch him up for his stellar defense at this point).

 

[Draco]

As much of sieve as Kanter is on defense, the guy was a putting up 19/11 as a starter. Leonard has yet to show he's even remotely capable of that kind of production (and it's not like people are going to snatch him up for his stellar defense at this point).

Meyers isn't just a shooter; he has athleticism on dunks and can rebound. But he's the only NBA player in history to shoot 51/42/93. Kanter rates below replacement level by RPM. There will be far more teams with cap room next summer and nobody to spend it on. Meyers getting a max contract is a very real possibility if he just displays small improvements.

 

[Reep]

As much of sieve as Kanter is on defense, the guy was a putting up 19/11 as a starter. Leonard has yet to show he's even remotely capable of that kind of production (and it's not like people are going to snatch him up for his stellar defense at this point).

Not that he will actually hit this, but his per/36 numbers from last year were 14 pts and 15 reb. Only time will tell what he can actually produce in more minutes, but there is a basis to believe.

 

[blue9]

As much of sieve as Kanter is on defense, the guy was a putting up 19/11 as a starter. Leonard has yet to show he's even remotely capable of that kind of production (and it's not like people are going to snatch him up for his stellar defense at this point).

I think there's a very decent chance that Meyers will "replicate" what Enes has done - put up good stats on a lottery team - now that he's likely to be a starter (or at the very least a key reserve). Maybe he won't hit 19/11, but I suspect that the defense he plays (that Kanter doesn't) will make up for coming up short a couple points and rebounds.

 

[magnifier661]

I think there's a very decent chance that Meyers will "replicate" what Enes has done - put up good stats on a lottery team - now that he's likely to be a starter (or at the very least a key reserve). Maybe he won't hit 19/11, but I suspect that the defense he plays (that Kanter doesn't) will make up for coming up short a couple points and rebounds.

I would be happy with him getting a double double efficiently.

 

[ripcityboy]

Wow. Talk about peaking at the right time. If Beibs proves he can be a decent starter than he's going to get paid. Def can see the Blazers matching if he puts up decent numbers.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

As much of sieve as Kanter is on defense, the guy was a putting up 19/11 as a starter. Leonard has yet to show he's even remotely capable of that kind of production (and it's not like people are going to snatch him up for his stellar defense at this point).

Leonard's third year as compared with Kanter's. PER's are similar (EK 15.6, ML 14.8), but Kanter's usage rate was much higher, ant Leonard's WS, WS/48, BPM, and VORP are all vastly superior. With the likely assumption that Leonard will be getting consistent minutes all year, it's a decent bet that he will be able to put up counting stats that will induce offers upwards of $15M/year.

However, that being the case, if I'm Leonard's agent, why would I let him sign an extension? He's likely much better off gambling on himself.

 

[lawai'a]

Leonard's third year as compared with Kanter's. PER's are similar (EK 15.6, ML 14.8), but Kanter's usage rate was much higher, ant Leonard's WS, WS/48, BPM, and VORP are all vastly superior. With the likely assumption that Leonard will be getting consistent minutes all year, it's a decent bet that he will be able to put up counting stats that will induce offers upwards of $15M/year.

However, that being the case, if I'm Leonard's agent, why would I let him sign an extension? He's likely much better off gambling on himself.

not to hijack but is there a single source where win shares, vorp, per and such are explained and their significance and also a single source of the data for comparison. I feel ignorant often enough but much more so when I can't even speak the language and can't formulate my own opinion. thank you

 

[PtldPlatypus]

not to hijack but is there a single source where win shares, vorp, per and such are explained and their significance and also a single source of the data for comparison. I feel ignorant often enough but much more so when I can't even speak the language and can't formulate my own opinion. thank you

Basketball reference gives some explanation of the advanced stats, but I'm not sure if it's enough for what you're seeking.

 

[Draco]

not to hijack but is there a single source where win shares, vorp, per and such are explained and their significance and also a single source of the data for comparison. I feel ignorant often enough but much more so when I can't even speak the language and can't formulate my own opinion. thank you

Basketball reference

 

[riverman]

So far Leonard hasn't accomplished anything that would earn him a max deal to this point. It may be a smart move to give him a 3 year 23 mil extension with a team option 3rd year just in case and avoid matching a max deal if he does make a huge leap this season. Otherwise I could see playing out his contract and seeing what the market dictates..could be the last chance to lock him up for a reasonable deal beforehand.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

unless he totally craters this year he is gonna get huge money next offseason

i doubt he takes 4/40 before 0ct0ber 31

 

[damianlillard]

9 mil sound good. if he blows up then that is a big value