What would you guys have done differently in 2016?

[KingSpeed]

If you don't spend money on Turner, you never get that space again. Who do you sign if you let Mo, AC, and Meyers walk?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

What would you guys have done differently in 2016?

Invested in bitcoin.

 

[Minstrel]

If you don't spend money on Turner, you never get that space again. Who do you sign if you let Mo, AC, and Meyers walk?

Not sign anyone, leaving space under the apron to sign future impending free agents while retaining the MLE. Our current situation should explain the issue with "use it or lose it."

 

[Scalma]

I don't remember, but I know I wanted Dedmon instead of Ezeli and Pachulia.

I was too busy being mad at whiteside.

 

[BrianFromWA]

It's not so much "what I would've done", b/c the events of 13, 14, 15 and 16 led us to that. But since you asked:

1) Crabbe's contract was too high, but I still think that based upon not having a 1st-rounder since CJ, you already bought yourself into matching him at basically whatever the cost. And BKN gave him the max. IF (and this is a hindsight "if") you thought that lux tax was going to be a concern (and let's face it, even I have a spreadsheet of the next few years' cap hits, so I know someone in the Blazers org does), then you should've extracted whatever you could from BKN in a sign-and-trade. The thing is, though, that you have to have the agreement with an agent first. "Hey, Mr. (Crabbe's agent), take whatever offers you get and bring them to us. Don't sign them. If you're offered it, you're going to get the money from someone. But let us see what we can do to mitigate it." Maybe it was just a 2021 2nd. Maybe it was nothing, and we let him go. Either way, we'd be better off than spending 2.7M on dead cap space for the next 6 years.

2) Moe was actually a decent signing v. cost in 2016. You'd done well to grab a guy on a rookie contract for nothing (top-55 2nd), and he seemed to fit well. A bit above the MLE for a young, projectable, 3-and-D wing is not a huge stretch. Now, one could say that they have more insight into Moe's practice habits, mental makeup, whatever and maybe we shouldn't have signed him, but for straight talent-v.-cost, even today his contract isn't egregious. Shit, NYK was willing to use him as a centerpiece of the Melo thing about 6 months ago, so you can't really fault Moe's deal.

3) Meyers seemed like an overbid at the time, and a huge one at that. There should've been no reason to go above MLE, since even teams that had MLE available weren't tossing it at him. I don't know how or why he got 4/41M. B/c if we're sitting here today talking about how Meyers makes about what Shirt-Off Ed makes, it's bad but not "fireable." Especially since there's still some "potential" that a team can take a flyer on ("rebounding stretch 5 that can bang with real C's at less than the 2018 MLE").

4) Ezeli was an afterthought, and a "if we don't use it we lose it" thing. I can't think of another C that was available for the ~8M Festus got. And since it was a 1yr deal with option, a bit of 'meh, whatever".

5) Here are the leadup items:
- I would never have attached a 1st to Barton to get Afflalo.
- While the trade kinda worked out, I don't love trading 1st round picks for guys at the end of rookie deals. Plums for RHJ turned out OK, but we had to trade him (in the sweet Nurk deal) to get value out of him, since we weren't going to extend him and he was going to be RFA (that we wouldn't match). So you lost out on 2+ years of a 1st-round talent b/c you were targeting someone that didn't actually move the needle.
- While I understand the carelessness about attaching 2nds to deals to make trades, we did way too much of that in 2012/13/14/15. We should've been spending some of that 3M/yr allocation on buying 2nds, even if they were draft-and-stash Euros.
- Not having a dedicated D-league team was, is and will be stupid. For the cost of about 5 games of Meyers' salary you can outfit an entire team of good players running your system, getting technology and tactics inserted that the NBAPA wouldn't let you do, identify coaching and staff talent, and getting a pipeline of players. And that cost doesn't go against salary cap.

I'm sure there's more, but I'm about a bottle of wine in and I gotta be ready to get a game thread going at some point.

 

[andalusian]

Given that we did not know that Turner would not work, I would have probably offered less for him. Would have still signed Harkless as he seemed fine, MyLe however was never worth more than 5m/year, would not have matched Crabbe.

So, Turner for $12m/year, take it or leave it, Harkless was fine, MyLe at $5m/year take it or leave it, no match on AC

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Not sign Leonard or Turner for sure. Ideally you sign and trade Crabbe before someone offers him. Otherwise let him go. I would have still signed Harkless (his contract almost got us PG or CA) and Imo teams were asking about him at the deadline and we still wanted to keep him. He is movable this summer if he doesn't snap out of it.

 

[theprunetang]

If you don't spend money on Turner, you never get that space again. Who do you sign if you let Mo, AC, and Meyers walk?

I definitely wouldn't have signed Turner. Never liked his game. I would have signed Harkless, as I thought he had another level of development in him. Would have let Meyers and AC walk. I was on the brink when it comes to matching the Crabbe contract or not, but passionate arguments by @Boob-No-More put me solidly on the anti Crabbe boat.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I would not have angled for capspace in a year when 28 teams were going to be playing with Monopoly money. Adjacent to that I would have gone after more picks, sought out some trades, tried to get into the lottery a couple more times and eschewed trying to lure big money free agents. Basically, opposite of what Neil/Allen did.

 

[Scalma]

As for what we ended up doing and my initial reactions;

Turner- There's no way that number is correct.

Harkless- yes!

Leonard- meh

Crabbe- expensive, but always liked him.

Ezeli- why did he come so cheap

 

[KingSpeed]

Not sign anyone, leaving space under the apron to sign future impending free agents while retaining the MLE. Our current situation should explain the issue with "use it or lose it."

What free agents??

 

[riverman]

What free agents??

I'd have offered ET Mo Harkless money and signed some vets....I think at the time Leandro Barbosa was available....

 

[KingSpeed]

Given that we did not know that Turner would not work, I would have probably offered less for him. Would have still signed Harkless as he seemed fine, MyLe however was never worth more than 5m/year, would not have matched Crabbe.

So, Turner for $12m/year, take it or leave it, Harkless was fine, MyLe at $5m/year take it or leave it, no match on AC

But if you don't sign all those players, who DO you sign?

 

[KingSpeed]

I'd have offered ET Mo Harkless money and signed some vets....I think at the time Leandro Barbosa was available....

Ok and if we go with vets, where's our future? Barbosa's out of NBA, right?

 

[KingSpeed]

I definitely wouldn't have signed Turner. Never liked his game. I would have signed Harkless, as I thought he had another level of development in him. Would have let Meyers and AC walk. I was on the brink when it comes to matching the Crabbe contract or not, but passionate arguments by @Boob-No-More put me solidly on the anti Crabbe boat.

So you would waste the cap space (that we offered to Parsons then Turner) and do nothing?

 

[KingSpeed]

Not sign Leonard or Turner for sure. Ideally you sign and trade Crabbe before someone offers him. Otherwise let him go. I would have still signed Harkless (his contract almost got us PG or CA) and Imo teams were asking about him at the deadline and we still wanted to keep him. He is movable this summer if he doesn't snap out of it.

Ok I get not signing Meyers but what do you do with the money we have Turner? People like Whiteside were turning us down and Turner played well in Boston.

 

[KingSpeed]

It's not so much "what I would've done", b/c the events of 13, 14, 15 and 16 led us to that. But since you asked:

1) Crabbe's contract was too high, but I still think that based upon not having a 1st-rounder since CJ, you already bought yourself into matching him at basically whatever the cost. And BKN gave him the max. IF (and this is a hindsight "if") you thought that lux tax was going to be a concern (and let's face it, even I have a spreadsheet of the next few years' cap hits, so I know someone in the Blazers org does), then you should've extracted whatever you could from BKN in a sign-and-trade. The thing is, though, that you have to have the agreement with an agent first. "Hey, Mr. (Crabbe's agent), take whatever offers you get and bring them to us. Don't sign them. If you're offered it, you're going to get the money from someone. But let us see what we can do to mitigate it." Maybe it was just a 2021 2nd. Maybe it was nothing, and we let him go. Either way, we'd be better off than spending 2.7M on dead cap space for the next 6 years.

2) Moe was actually a decent signing v. cost in 2016. You'd done well to grab a guy on a rookie contract for nothing (top-55 2nd), and he seemed to fit well. A bit above the MLE for a young, projectable, 3-and-D wing is not a huge stretch. Now, one could say that they have more insight into Moe's practice habits, mental makeup, whatever and maybe we shouldn't have signed him, but for straight talent-v.-cost, even today his contract isn't egregious. Shit, NYK was willing to use him as a centerpiece of the Melo thing about 6 months ago, so you can't really fault Moe's deal.

3) Meyers seemed like an overbid at the time, and a huge one at that. There should've been no reason to go above MLE, since even teams that had MLE available weren't tossing it at him. I don't know how or why he got 4/41M. B/c if we're sitting here today talking about how Meyers makes about what Shirt-Off Ed makes, it's bad but not "fireable." Especially since there's still some "potential" that a team can take a flyer on ("rebounding stretch 5 that can bang with real C's at less than the 2018 MLE").

4) Ezeli was an afterthought, and a "if we don't use it we lose it" thing. I can't think of another C that was available for the ~8M Festus got. And since it was a 1yr deal with option, a bit of 'meh, whatever".

5) Here are the leadup items:
- I would never have attached a 1st to Barton to get Afflalo.
- While the trade kinda worked out, I don't love trading 1st round picks for guys at the end of rookie deals. Plums for RHJ turned out OK, but we had to trade him (in the sweet Nurk deal) to get value out of him, since we weren't going to extend him and he was going to be RFA (that we wouldn't match). So you lost out on 2+ years of a 1st-round talent b/c you were targeting someone that didn't actually move the needle.
- While I understand the carelessness about attaching 2nds to deals to make trades, we did way too much of that in 2012/13/14/15. We should've been spending some of that 3M/yr allocation on buying 2nds, even if they were draft-and-stash Euros.
- Not having a dedicated D-league team was, is and will be stupid. For the cost of about 5 games of Meyers' salary you can outfit an entire team of good players running your system, getting technology and tactics inserted that the NBAPA wouldn't let you do, identify coaching and staff talent, and getting a pipeline of players. And that cost doesn't go against salary cap.

I'm sure there's more, but I'm about a bottle of wine in and I gotta be ready to get a game thread going at some point.

Great post. Thanks.

 

[KingSpeed]

Given that we did not know that Turner would not work, I would have probably offered less for him. Would have still signed Harkless as he seemed fine, MyLe however was never worth more than 5m/year, would not have matched Crabbe.

So, Turner for $12m/year, take it or leave it, Harkless was fine, MyLe at $5m/year take it or leave it, no match on AC

Does Turner want to play for Portland if we only offer $12 million in competitive market? Then what?

 

[Minstrel]

What free agents??

At the time, Plumlee, but as things developed Nurkic and Napier. Theoretically, if Vonleh had broken out, it would have been nice to be able to afford him and still have the MLE available.

 

[KingSpeed]

At the time, Plumlee, but as things developed Nurkic and Napier. Theoretically, if Vonleh had broken out, it would have been nice to be able to afford him and still have the MLE available.

Oh I understand. I missed the word "impending." Good point.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I would have offered ET and Meyers the exact same contracts that they have now but both would have been for 3yrs but the last year is a team option. That way if they are as suckish that they are now they would be easier to trade.

 

[KingSpeed]

I would have offered ET and Meyers the exact same contracts that they have now but both would have been for 3yrs but the last year is a team option. That way if they are as suckish that they are now they would be easier to trade.

I like that idea.

 

[H.C.]

Dwight Jaynes would've signed Dwight Howard.

As for me, I would've done everything I could to land Jeremy Lin & Harrison Barnes.
Also would've looked @ Trevor Booker as he's a banger and adds toughness at the 4.
I have no issues with the 4/40 Harkless got and would've done the same.

Nards I would've never gave a second contract.
Vonleh would be the odd man out because better players
Crabbe I would've paused because everyone knew he was going to get paid. But I don't believe I would've matched an 18mil per contract.

Would've gone into the season with a three guard rotation of
Lillard/Lin/CJ
CJ/Lin/Lillard
Barnes/Harkless
Aminu/Booker/Barnes
Plumlee/Davis

I would've then looked for a vet center to sign but I don't know who that would've been.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I would have offered ET and Meyers the exact same contracts that they have now but both would have been for 3yrs but the last year is a team option. That way if they are as suckish that they are now they would be easier to trade.

I'll buy that for ET, maybe.

For Meyers? Almost 2 weeks of FA went by and he didn't have a single (reported) offer. If nothing else, he should've gotten some sniffs for the MLE (~7M/yr). And if he didn't, that would've been more than fair. But somehow we went 60% over that, for the full 4 years. Again, if you think he's going to be a centerpiece (think Dame and CJ), absolutely lock him up as long as you can. But for a guy who was getting 8th-man minutes? Dubious.

 

[B-Roy]

There's $25 million in deadweight on this team right now. Meyers and Harkless are out of the rotation and there's also $5 million of pure deadweight.

Just think about that for a second.

 

[TBpup]

I wanted Fournier that summer and when they offered Turner, couldn't figure out how he fit in Stotts offense. I get the '3rd ball-handler' bit but once he gave up the ball, he became an offensive liability and he's not good enough to be the primary ball-handler which you wouldn't want anyhow.

Once Crabbe was offered that monster, you had to let him go. The mistake was not signing or at least offering much lower earlier.

Was perfectly fine with Harkless and his deal.

Meyers was the definition of insanity.....doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

 

[KingSpeed]

There's $25 million in deadweight on this team right now. Meyers and Harkless are out of the rotation and there's also $5 million of pure deadweight.

Just think about that for a second.

That doesn't answer the question.

 

[KingSpeed]

I wanted Fournier that summer and when they offered Turner, couldn't figure out how he fit in Stotts offense. I get the '3rd ball-handler' bit but once he gave up the ball, he became an offensive liability and he's not good enough to be the primary ball-handler which you wouldn't want anyhow.

Once Crabbe was offered that monster, you had to let him go. The mistake was not signing or at least offering much lower earlier.

Was perfectly fine with Harkless and his deal.

Meyers was the definition of insanity.....doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

To be fair, Meyers had a great Playoffs in 2015 but was injured in 2016 and that's why I think Neil was tempted.

 

[tester551]

I would've let Crabbe walk. Replace him with someone like Joe Harris for about $3M. I think Portland should target Harris as a Pat replacement for next year...

In theory, Turners skill set is a nice fit (however, it has been shown to be wrong about that). I was ok going after him for around $10M. We paid way too much.

I could justify Mo's contract, so no issue there.

Meyers, I could see resigning him - BUT AT NO MORE THAN $5M with the second year non guaranteed.

Others to target:
+ Resigning Henderson
+ Ennis
+ Jarred Dudley
+ Deadmon

 

[TBpup]

To be fair, Meyers had a great Playoffs in 2015 but was injured in 2016 and that's why I think Neil was tempted.

Never liked his mental toughness....for me it had nothing to do with a few spurts of good play or injuries. His mentality just doesn't seem to fit in the NBA and he has very little natural feel for the game.