What's the Limit for LMA?

[Foulzilla]

James Worthy basically played SF for the Lakers.

I seem to recall he did spend time at the PF position as well, though I agree he was primarily a SF. I was actually curious to look up his positional minutes to confirm this, but it seems 82games only has recent stats on minutes by position, and I'm unaware of another source for it. Does anyone happen to know a site that might do this for older players?

 

[Iwatas]

Got another one. Thurl Bailey:

Also 6'11". Thurl is first, LMA second.
AGE PPG PCT FT PCT RPG APG stls blcks tos pf
23 15.2 .490 .842 6.6 1.7 51 105 152 215
23 18.1 .484 .781 7.5 1.9 77 77 121 207

I'd say they are pretty similar. I think Thurl was good enough to be a piece (though not a centerpiece) of a championship team.

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[PapaG]

Got another one. Thurl Bailey:

Also 6'11". Thurl is first, LMA second.
AGE PPG PCT FT PCT RPG APG stls blcks tos pf
23 15.2 .490 .842 6.6 1.7 51 105 152 215
23 18.1 .484 .781 7.5 1.9 77 77 121 207

I'd say they are pretty similar. I think Thurl was good enough to be a piece (though not a centerpiece) of a championship team.

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Thurl Bailey never averaged more than 6.6 rpg, and averaged 5 rpg for his career. Also, his PER at age 23 was 14.7; LMA had a PER of 19.1. You're overvaluing Bailey's stats, which are worse than LMA's because you aren't taking into account pace and the Utah offense. That Utah team averaged 109 ppg with a pace of 1.5.5 (2nd in NBA); Portland last year averaged 99.4 with a pace of 86.6 (last in NBA). Of course, Portland did lead the NBA in offensive rating.

The stat comparison between Bailey and LMA doesn't really work IMO.

 

[Minstrel]

IDuncan is a MUCH better rebounder, a better scorer, and a better passer (though with 2x the turnovers). He was also a much better defender. Aldridge is also a level below the Karl Malones and Charles Barkleys of NBA lore. So I do NOT think we have a potential HOFer here.

While betting on a Hall of Fame career early on is always a long-shot proposition except for the very few phenoms (James, Paul, etc), you named three of the five best power forwards ever. Aldridge doesn't have to be as good as Duncan, Malone or Barkley to be a Hall of Famer.

Based on what he has shown us so far, LMA is a second tier star. He'll make the all-star game many times, but he is not going into the HOF.

I agree with you that this is the most likely path (with several All-Star appearances..."many" would put him on a Hall of Fame path). However, I think he still has a Hall of Fame ceiling. It's not his likeliest path, but I don't think it's impossible that he could develop into a great defender and high-level scorer.

 

[Minstrel]

Horace Grant. That who's career I think LaMarcus' career will be most similar to. I think he'll be in the all-star game a couple of times simply because we'll be an elite team. On his own, his production won't merit being an all-star. LaMarcus' mediocre rebounding and not much of a dribble drive/face up game makes him pretty much Chris Bosh-lite. That's enough to be around the 3rd tier of PF, IMO.

I think you're underselling Aldridge. His PER put him a little behind Bosh, but Bosh is a year older and I think Aldridge's defense is superior to Bosh's. Even if Aldridge has maxed out, he's better than Horace Grant, IMO. However, I think he still has some upside left and may well end up on Bosh's level.

 

[PapaG]

I seem to recall he did spend time at the PF position as well, though I agree he was primarily a SF. I was actually curious to look up his positional minutes to confirm this, but it seems 82games only has recent stats on minutes by position, and I'm unaware of another source for it. Does anyone happen to know a site that might do this for older players?

He may have played there at times, but A.C. Green and Kurt Rambis were the PF rotation for the very good Laker teams. Worthy was basically a SF, and he rebounded like one (career 5 rpg).

 

[mook]

I'm a huge Sheed fan, but I'm a little surprised to see "Rasheed Wallace with a better attitude" as Aldridge's upside. Aldridge is already as good as Sheed was at everything but defense, and it's not like Aldridge is bad there.

Barring injury, I'd say Rasheed Wallace is Aldridge's floor. Especially given that Aldridge has shown a lot more desire to be a featured offensive player than Sheed ever did. He may never defend as well as Sheed, but he'll be a more consistent and better scorer, and will probably eventually surpass Sheed in rebounding (it's not hard).

His ceiling? That's really tough to say. Maybe Dirk Nowitzki? Both guys have a major hole in their game (Dirk's is defense, Aldridge's is rebounding). But I could see him averaging 25-26 ppg for several seasons like Dirk does. He doesn't have Dirk's handle, but then defense is a bigger hole to have than rebounding is, so that sort evens out. Note: I'm not saying he will become Nowitzki, just that that's around his ceiling.

I think of Dirk as a Hall of Fame player, but on nobody's short list of "greatest players ever at his position."

 

[Iwatas]

Thurl Bailey never averaged more than 6.6 rpg, and averaged 5 rpg for his career. Also, his PER at age 23 was 14.7; LMA had a PER of 19.1. You're overvaluing Bailey's stats, which are worse than LMA's because you aren't taking into account pace and the Utah offense. That Utah team averaged 109 ppg with a pace of 1.5.5 (2nd in NBA); Portland last year averaged 99.4 with a pace of 86.6 (last in NBA). Of course, Portland did lead the NBA in offensive rating.

The stat comparison between Bailey and LMA doesn't really work IMO.

Good points. Though Aldridge, at 7.5 boards, is not that much better a boarder than Bailey was.

I think Minstrel is right - LMA's potential ceiling is very high, but the most likely trajectory is a second-tier PF among the league's all-time greats. A rung below the Garnetts/Duncans/Webbers/Malones/Barkleys of the world - more in the (healthy) Calvin Natt/Michael Thompson/Rasheed Wallace/Shareef Abdur-rahim/Uncle Cliffy ranks.

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