When Oden plays at least X minutes, he produces...

[blazerboy30]

I think we all agree that Oden will learn to reduce his fouls as this season progresses, and definitely into his career.

Those fouls have played a large role in reducing Greg's minutes this season.

So, I was curious about how Oden performs when he is able to stay out of early foul trouble and actually register decent minutes.

What can we expect to see Greg do when he figures out how to stay in the game without fouling????

When Oden plays at least 20 minutes, he averages:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
11.8 9.6 1.3 0.9 0.58 57.9

When Oden plays at least 24 minutes:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
12.9 10. 1.2 0.73 0.6 61.38

When Oden plays at least 30 minutes:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
13.4 11 1.1 0.7 0.85 61.6

Doing a linear curve-fit to the above stats, if Greg played 36mpg:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
14.4 11.8 1.0 0.6 1.0 64.1

Interestingly, in the 3 games where Oden has played at least 35 minutes:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
17.3, 13.7, 1, 1, 1.6, 60%

The last two data points put him in pretty good company, and hint that he has a great chance at becoming dominant.

For those of us that believe Greg will learn how to reduce his fouling, we have some great performances to look forward to.


***Disclaimer*** I realize that there is the chicken-or-the-egg possibility here. Maybe Greg got more minutes because he was performing well, and not vice-versa, so take it for what it is worth.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Wouldn't you need to compare his /48 stats for each of those, otherwise of course he'll score more when he plays more...

 

[retroblazers]

strange that his blocks number goes down with the more minutes he plays. i wonder if this is because he's playing less aggressive on defense in order to avoid fouls and stay on the court. and if that's the case, i'm not sure how great that is, i want him aggressive on defense, just smarter

 

[blazerboy30]

Wouldn't you need to compare his /48 stats for each of those, otherwise of course he'll score more when he plays more...

Not if he were truly a bust. If a player is a bust, or lacks any sort of offensive skill, or potential to dominate, I would argue that they won't necessarily score or rebound more by playing more minutes.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

I think we all agree that Oden will learn to reduce his fouls as this season progresses, and definitely into his career.

Those fouls have played a large role in reducing Greg's minutes this season.

So, I was curious about how Oden performs when he is able to stay out of early foul trouble and actually register decent minutes.

What can we expect to see Greg do when he figures out how to stay in the game without fouling????

When Oden plays at least 20 minutes, he averages:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
11.8 9.6 1.3 0.9 0.58 57.9

When Oden plays at least 24 minutes:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
12.9 10. 1.2 0.73 0.6 61.38

When Oden plays at least 30 minutes:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
13.4 11 1.1 0.7 0.85 61.6

Doing a linear curve-fit to the above stats, if Greg played 36mpg:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
14.4 11.8 1.0 0.6 1.0 64.1

Interestingly, in the 3 games where Oden has played at least 35 minutes:
pts, rbs, blks, assts, steals, fg pct
17.3, 13.7, 1, 1, 1.6, 60%

The last two data points put him in pretty good company, and hint that he has a great chance at becoming dominant.

For those of us that believe Greg will learn how to reduce his fouling, we have some great performances to look forward to.


***Disclaimer*** I realize that there is the chicken-or-the-egg possibility here. Maybe Greg got more minutes because he was performing well, and not vice-versa, so take it for what it is worth.

Thanks good info, obviously not completely error free but good information.

 

[Paxil]

The Q: is... does he play better because he is playing more minutes... or does he play more minutes because he is playing better?

He has always had good productivity per minute... just hasn't been able... like you said... to get enough minutes because of fouls.

 

[PapaG]

The Q: is... does he play better because he is playing more minutes... or does he play more minutes because he is playing better?

He has always had good productivity per minute... just hasn't been able... like you said... to get enough minutes because of fouls.

He plays more minutes, outside of one game I can think of, when he doesn't get into foul trouble.

 

[DaRizzle]

Good stuff...fatigue also has to be factored in

 

[Minstrel]

Good stuff...fatigue also has to be factored in

Intuitively, you'd think so. But apparently, players who have the talent to play more minutes than they are actually tend to play better with more minutes. Basketball Prospectus named this "The Milsap Doctrine."

Millsap's success as a starter is an interesting case study in how players respond to different roles. Over the last two seasons, Millsap's per-minute numbers as a reserve behind Boozer were excellent. However, critics of statistical analysis are quick to point out the ways in which per-minute stats can be misleading in the cases of reserves like Millsap.

A little over a year ago, in the midst of one such debate, I helped Tom Ziller compile numbers for BallHype.com looking at the performance of reserves who, like Millsap, suddenly saw their playing time increase dramatically because of the loss of the player ahead of them on the depth chart. Conceptually, this study (based on a similar one done by John Hollinger in the original Pro Basketball Prospectus book) avoided the usual pitfalls of assessing performance based on playing time, namely that players naturally tend to play more when they play well.

Lo and behold, the data showed that these players tended to improve their performance when given more regular minutes, contradicting the critics' naysaying. There's a perfectly logical explanation for why this would be the case. Given more playing time, players have a chance to get warm and play through their mistakes instead of constantly watching the bench and waiting for their coach to pull them from the game.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=501

Greg Oden isn't technically a reserve, but he plays the minutes of a reserve, so it seems like it could well apply to him.

 

[DaRizzle]

^i think you are reading into that wrong. What that talks about is players playing better when they get minutes, rather than playing good and getting/earning more minutes. It doesnt talk about fatigue. They are two separate factors

So while yes, what you talk about above will/could be a positive contributing factor, fatigue is still a negative factor. There isnt a way of eliminating that.

On the positive side, the more minutes he gets the more used to it he will become reducing the fatigue factor at the end of games.

 

[Minstrel]

^i think you are reading into that wrong. What that talks about is players playing better when they get minutes, rather than playing good and getting/earning more minutes. It doesnt talk about fatigue. They are two separate factors

The article is not about fatigue, it's about how production is affected by playing more. My point is that they play better as they play more, so even if fatigue is a factor, it is more than canceled out by the benefits of playing more. That is to say, even if Oden got more tired by playing more, we should still expect him to play better despite that.

 

[DaRizzle]

Well Fatigue always holds true, lets hope that factor you mentioned does too. Everybody is different