When To Replace A Starter

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Shooter started a thread about Roy and that got me thinking about how hard it is, often impossible, for a player like Matthews to work his way past a player like Roy.

I mean, how many times have I seen long time NBA players (even all-stars) simply be not as good as their back up, yet by virtue of their old status they get to start several years past when they should.

Now, I am NOT saying Matthews is, or ever will be, a better player than Roy- but what if he did out work him and out play him in practice? There is no way in hell Nate would replace Roy in the starting lineup if Matthews was a better player. I mean, look how long it took Nate to put Miller in the starting lineup and he was 200% better than Blake from day 1.

In baseball and basketball starters get to hang on way too long if the so chose. In football, it's much more cut throat. If a player beats you in practice, they start regardless of draft selection or salary...

Oh well, just wondering.

 

[BGrantFan]

I mean, how many times have I seen long time NBA players (even all-stars) simply be not as good as their back up, yet by virtue of their old status they get to start several years past when they should.

I don't know. How many times have you seen it? Off of the top of my head, I can't think of an All-Star level starter (or even established veteran) who has had a better player backing him up for an extended period of time.

 

[LittleAlex]

Big money contracts play the largest role.

If you are paying a guy a max deal you want to get your money's worth.

I am not saying it makes much sense but that's the truth of it.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I don't know. How many times have you seen it? Off of the top of my head, I can't think of an All-Star level starter (or even established veteran) who has had a better player backing him up for an extended period of time.

Well, I watched Pippen mail it in his final year here- as one example.

 

[Minstrel]

If Matthews were out-playing Roy in games (that matter, this excepts pre-season) over a significant period of time, then it would make sense to make the switch. Humans tend to be pretty unwilling to give up on a sunk cost investment, so it does take a lot for an up-and-comer to replace a highly-paid famous player.

 

[Minstrel]

Well, I watched Pippen mail it in his final year here- as one example.

I didn't. Nor did I see a better player backing up Pippen. Ruben Patterson was the most likely candidate to replace Pippen but, even at age 37, Pippen was out-producing Patterson and playing better, smarter defense despite having lost a step.

 

[ABM]

This is the NBA.....land of entitlement and egos. If Player B (Matthews) consistently outplays Player A (Roy), then Player A is traded.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Maybe the reason football is so different is that they only play 16 games and can't afford to carry a player like Pippen was (again, as an example) as every win possible is mandatory for the playoffs. So when a scrub out plays a starter, they take their place and now. In the NBA and MLB they can afford to let a few games slip away due to a starter that is really no longer good enough to start.

 

[Minstrel]

Maybe the reason football is so different is that they only play 16 games and can't afford to carry a player like Pippen was (again, as an example)

Again as a bad example. Pippen had an above average PER for that season. If a 37 year old can be an above average NBA starter while mailing it in...he must have been the most talented player in NBA history.

 

[Cake]

Shooter started a thread about Roy and that got me thinking about how hard it is, often impossible, for a player like Matthews to work his way past a player like Roy.

I mean, how many times have I seen long time NBA players (even all-stars) simply be not as good as their back up, yet by virtue of their old status they get to start several years past when they should.

Now, I am NOT saying Matthews is, or ever will be, a better player than Roy- but what if he did out work him and out play him in practice? There is no way in hell Nate would replace Roy in the starting lineup if Matthews was a better player. I mean, look how long it took Nate to put Miller in the starting lineup and he was 200% better than Blake from day 1.

In baseball and basketball starters get to hang on way too long if the so chose. In football, it's much more cut throat. If a player beats you in practice, they start regardless of draft selection or salary...

Oh well, just wondering.

There are plenty of examples of a back-up playing well, earning some minutes, then the established starter is shipped off in a trade, which is most likely what would happen because of Brandon Roy's trade value.

I'm not sure I can really think of any legit examples of a better player toiling behind an experienced star/borderline star for much time at all before either a trade, position switch or depth chart change. You mentioned Pippen...but his backup in his final season was Ruben Patterson. I don't think Patterson was better at all, let alone clearly better. You also mentioned Andre Miller and Steve Blake. Well, Miller started 66 games last year. Is that REALLY that long? Was it really several years that we had to wait for Miller to start?

I don't know about your theory.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

if you were attempting to receive a superstar at a certain position (say, PG) and had a really good player backing up a near-superstar starter at a different position (say, SG), you're able to take a risk that you're getting a net positive return in the trade.

Not saying such a thing would happen with the Blazers, but my tinfoil tendencies think that Matthews was part of a Hail Mary.

 

[ironcrotch]

This reminds me of last year when Bayless put together a couple good games and people started to ponder him being better then Roy.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

This reminds me of last year when Bayless put together a couple good games and people started to ponder him being better then Roy.

WHAT?!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

To be fair, "people" was really just KingSpeed.

 

[ABM]

How many miles did Paxson have in the tank when he was traded in deference to Drexler?

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

There are plenty of examples of a back-up playing well, earning some minutes, then the established starter is shipped off in a trade, which is most likely what would happen because of Brandon Roy's trade value.

I'm not sure I can really think of any legit examples of a better player toiling behind an experienced star/borderline star for much time at all before either a trade, position switch or depth chart change. You mentioned Pippen...but his backup in his final season was Ruben Patterson. I don't think Patterson was better at all, let alone clearly better. You also mentioned Andre Miller and Steve Blake. Well, Miller started 66 games last year. Is that REALLY that long? Was it really several years that we had to wait for Miller to start?

I don't know about your theory.

I suppose you're right. In the NBA the starter is simply shipped off.

 

[LittleAlex]

This reminds me of last year when Bayless put together a couple good games and people started to ponder him being better then Roy.

By people I can only assume you mean crack heads.

 

[blazerboy30]

I'm confused by this thread.

There hasn't been a single example cited to support the original post. (No, the Pippen "example" doesn't work because it wasn't true)

 

[MickZagger]

Well, I watched Pippen mail it in his final year here- as one example.

Yet, he was still better than all the other options at his position.

 

[MickZagger]

Maybe the reason football is so different is that they only play 16 games and can't afford to carry a player like Pippen was (again, as an example) as every win possible is mandatory for the playoffs. So when a scrub out plays a starter, they take their place and now. In the NBA and MLB they can afford to let a few games slip away due to a starter that is really no longer good enough to start.

In the NFL, it has everything to do with the short shelf life of an NFL player. That, and there is no guaranteed contract. A player can be an MVP one year, injured the whole season the next and out of the NFL after that. Example, Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes.

 

[LittleAlex]

I'm confused by this thread.

There hasn't been a single example cited to support the original post. (No, the Pippen "example" doesn't work because it wasn't true)

I can think of a ton of examples where a team thought this was true and then was proven wrong.

Billups in Detroit comes to mind. They thought he would be easily replaced by Rodney Stuckey.

The only example I think is even close would be Ray Allen/Micheal Redd situation for the Bucks a few years back. But just resulted in a trade not a benching.

Maybe the Knicks two years ago with Starbury versus whatever mediocre point guard was playing instead. Though that may have had more to do with Marbury eating vasoline live on webcam then his actual basketball abilities.