Which weapon would do the most damage?

[Prue]

Houston kills it on defense in the paint so long as Dwight is there. Beverly can frustrate the most clever of ball handlers. So, what play/plays do you think will be the 'go-to' weapon for the Blazers in the playoffs that will do the most damage to Houston?

Some Options: (Please feel free to post your plays no matter how ludicrous)

• Refined Batman-Robin only no bounce passes, just up top to the rim
• 3P-4-3 High Pick, Pop & Pass for a 3 (Dame drive with LA screen, LA pops and catches to dish out the side to Wes/Nic for the Tre)
• Lob City. Rolo runs out to corner baseline to screen Wes/Nic to roll to basline while Dame gets Screen from LA, freeing up Dame to lob for the throw-down.
• Around the World. Everyones favorite passing game started by Dame off the dribble to the angle, pass to center 3 with Wes, to Nic at the opposite angle and back around again till someone is open.
• Flashback. Dame brings up over mid-court to find a screen being set by Duckworth, as he rounds the pick Drexler comes up from behind him, steals the ball and glides in from the foul line to stuff it over a cuddling Dwight & Harden holding each other for comfort.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I like that I saw the Blazer pounding the Batman/Robin, Green Lillard/Robin, Iron Man/Robin pick and roll all the time last night. That's a weapon that's been weakly scouted but is a really high reward play.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Flashback. Dame brings up over mid-court to find a screen being set by Duckworth, as he rounds the pick Drexler comes up from behind him, steals the ball and glides in from the foul line to stuff it over a cuddling Dwight & Harden holding each other for comfort.

I like the way you think.

 

[OneLifeToLive]

Houston kills it on defense in the paint so long as Dwight is there. Beverly can frustrate the most clever of ball handlers. So, what play/plays do you think will be the 'go-to' weapon for the Blazers in the playoffs that will do the most damage to Houston?

Some Options: (Please feel free to post your plays no matter how ludicrous)

• Refined Batman-Robin only no bounce passes, just up top to the rim
• 3P-4-3 High Pick, Pop & Pass for a 3 (Dame drive with LA screen, LA pops and catches to dish out the side to Wes/Nic for the Tre)
• Lob City. Rolo runs out to corner baseline to screen Wes/Nic to roll to basline while Dame gets Screen from LA, freeing up Dame to lob for the throw-down.
• Around the World. Everyones favorite passing game started by Dame off the dribble to the angle, pass to center 3 with Wes, to Nic at the opposite angle and back around again till someone is open.
• Flashback. Dame brings up over mid-court to find a screen being set by Duckworth, as he rounds the pick Drexler comes up from behind him, steals the ball and glides in from the foul line to stuff it over a cuddling Dwight & Harden holding each other for comfort.

A nice mixture of them all?

 

[B-Roy]

Fuck Clyde. That guy gives no shits about the Blazers.

 

[PDXFonz]

I think a healthy diet of high 1/4 p&r/p combined with some misdirection from the 2 and 3.

Have Rolo set a high pick for la rather than going low for Wes or nic. Force Howard to switch on to la getting him away from the rim, have dame cut to the basket and flare out to the corner, with nico or Wes taking his spot at the top of the key, the other being on the opposite baseline.

Read and react, la takes the shot, hits Wes or nic cutting baseline, or look for dame cutting to the basket after the play developed. Final option look for Rolo with the mismatch of jones on him.

 

[magnifier661]

Fuck Clyde. That guy gives no shits about the Blazers.

You're right. He is such a Houston homer

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

LaMarcus midrange jumpers.

 

[magnifier661]

I think it has to be a team effort. The less we need to rely on just two players the better, IMO. Dame and Aldridge will do their damage, but we need a collective effort from all fronts.

We need to move the ball around like crazy.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

If Dame can start hitting pull up 3s again to kill Houston momentum I will vote for that.

 

[-Ace-]

No bounce passes in the lane. For the love of Schonz, please.....no more bounce passes in the lane.

 

[riverman]

Making 4th qtr free throws maybe? There would not have been an overtime against GS if we made them all. Pick and roll, pick and pop is probably more effective than the drive and dish game against Houston

 

[PDXFonz]

Making 4th qtr free throws maybe? There would not have been an overtime against GS if we made them all. Pick and roll, pick and pop is probably more effective than the drive and dish game against Houston

Imagine if stotts called a time out for that purpose. Draws a stick figure shooting a free throw..

 

[Prue]

No bounce passes in the lane. For the love of Schonz, please.....no more bounce passes in the lane.

Yeah...I mean the bounce pass is a great pass...but the guy getting it has to KNOW its coming and have good hands. Even Rolo can't get em all when he knows they are coming. I would Love to see some stat or pie chart..Mmm pie!...of Bounce passes into the Paint that: Blazers Scored, Blazers Missed, Blazers Turned over. I don't think it would justify the attempt >.>

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

Good team defense does the most damage.

 

[Eastoff]

I would really like to see Batum and Rolo working the pick and roll early. I think Howard would have trouble guarding that. It will totally fucking confuse Houston because I doubt they are planning for that.

 

[mook]

Aldridge averaged 27/15, shooting 45%, in four games against the Rockets. So my guess is he will take a shit-ton of midrange jumpers. Houston isn't going to double him a lot (too afraid of our shooters), and it's a waste of time putting Howard on him (because the lane will be wide open). So there's 25-30ppg Stotts can pretty much pencil in every night. In the playoffs you never turn your back on that kind of productivity.

That's 24 shots per game you can pretty much book right now just for LMA. We average 86 FGA's per game, but in the playoffs against a team like Houston that number almost certainly goes down. So maybe 55 shots left. A lot of the remaining shots are going to be read-and-react stuff. But of that which remains, I expect the lion's share to come from Lillard and Moe breaking down defenders off the dribble.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I noticed Beverly racked up 4 and 5 fouls in his last 2 games since coming back, and averaged 3.2 PF's/game in 13 games in 30mpg in March. Lillard has had turnover problems against him, but even still he has a TS% of 55%, 18ppg and 5 assists. It's not like Beverly completely neutralizes Lillard, even if he is at 100% effectiveness.

One thing I think will go almost completely away is Batum running the pick and roll with Lopez or Robinson. We might try it a little, but I just don't see it working against their centers. Besides, Batum has a career playoff PER of 10.2 over 18 games. It would be very unwise of Stotts to game plan for him to do much more for us than rebound, hit open 3's and defend. If Batum gets hot and completely proves me wrong, well, hey, that's great. But I'll believe it when I see it. The image of Batum getting dominated in the playoffs by the defense of Steve Nash is still vivid in my memory. Yeah, I know Nic was injured and yeah I know our McScribbles sucked, but Houston is looking for ways to take apart our offense, and this is low-hanging fruit that they are actually equipped to manage.

One guy who is getting overlooked I think is Thomas Robinson. His TRB% is at 19%, which makes him one of the elite per-minute rebounders in the game. He's scoring at a nice 54%fg over the past 20 games. I think he's got a real chip on his shoulder about his former team and I think he'll come out storming. I'd still prefer to see Freeland out there instead, but I'm not as worried as I had been that Joel be in tip top shape for the playoffs.

 

[illmatic99]

^ good post there.

I think we're all hitting on a similar aspect but no one has explicitly said it. I think the biggest key is to get Beverley and Howard into foul trouble early. Force the action in the first quarters by going at the rim HARD, and take those two out of the game. It will be our best chance.

 

[mook]

One other aspect I'm really looking forward to is seeing Matthews in the post. He is so deadly down there, and who does Houston put on him? If I were Houston, I would want to leave Parsons on Batum to compensate for his length (and preempt a 2-man pick and roll game from emerging). So that means Harden or Lin is going to be "guarding" him much of the night. They may get a flop or two in, but you just know Wes will convert a high percent of the time, or at least force the Houston defense to help out and create openings for others.

Harden is going to kill us. Howard is going to dominate Lopez. It's a little like the 2000 WCF in that we have the better starters but just not the two best players. It's kind of a Shaq/Kobe-lite vs Sheed/Pippen/Smitty/Sabonis-lite. They even have their Derek Fisher (Beverley). The question is if all our other matchups outweigh their two heavyweights.

 

[Prue]

I like this Mook...I want to see Wes in the post with Howard in the game cause he loves to roll over for help Defense which should free up a nice pass to Rolo for a stuff.

 

[Boise Blazer]

Great posts mook. Repped

 

[Boise Blazer]

So on offense Houston simply does not take mid range shots. So do we worry more about the drives or 3's?

 

[Prue]

With the amount of 3's we toss up too and Houston's fast play where to we 'give'? Do we shoot 1 and done from 3 and everyone run back (make or miss) for defense to get set? Or do we all commit to offensive rebound and value the 50/50 for extra possession more?

I REALLY HATE TO SAY IT, but I sorta like the 1 and done back for defense. 50/50 offensive rebound for a ~45% chance at points that 2nd time around vs Houston's fast break offensive which is WAY more % of success I think.

 

[mook]

With the amount of 3's we toss up too and Houston's fast play where to we 'give'? Do we shoot 1 and done from 3 and everyone run back (make or miss) for defense to get set? Or do we all commit to offensive rebound and value the 50/50 for extra possession more?

I REALLY HATE TO SAY IT, but I sorta like the 1 and done back for defense. 50/50 offensive rebound for a ~45% chance at points that 2nd time around vs Houston's fast break offensive which is WAY more % of success I think.

Portland is 7th in the league in reb%, and Houston is 1st. But the difference between the two teams is less than 1%. Houston plays at a slightly higher pace, but they are so close it's not that remarkable.

I don't think either team has a massive advantage/disadvantage pushing the ball or focusing on boards.

Looking over their recent schedule, they were pretty mediocre against some pretty mediocre competition. How many really impressive wins have they had since they beat us March 9th? They went 10-8, which is the pace of a 45 win team. 45 wins is 10th place in the West

They beat OKC at home (and lost to them on the road). They beat the Spurs, who already had the #1 spot locked up. Aaaaaannnndd.....am I missing somebody? This Rockets team just doesn't scare me that much. Well, they are scary in that they have two elite players, and elite guys can always just go bananas in a series and kill you, but they really haven't been that special lately.

To be fair, until about 9 games ago neither was Portland.

 

[maxiep]

To me, the key is going to be how Lillard deals with Beverley. So far, he's disrupted the ball at the point of attack, which has made us slow in setting up our offense. That, in turn, has meant that we're not getting the quality of shot we would like.

As a result, I think we're going to try to run Beverley through as many screens as we can. And that's where Freeland will help. He sets really nice picks.

 

[Schilly]

I think the biggest factor is whether Dwight handles the Playoff pressure and stays a good team mate. When things get tense he tends to become more important than everyone else.

 

[maxiep]

To be fair, until about 9 games ago neither was Portland.

Mook, do you think our play over the past nine has been special? I've been underwhelmed. We've seemed to have played to the level of our competition.

As for Houston, they have a built in excuse. They lost Howard to an ankle, Beverley to a knee and Parsons missed some games.

I don't fear an injured Rockets squad, but if they're close to healthy, we're going to have to play some unbelievable basketball to beat them. They just match up too well with us. The big exception is at PF, which means LA is going to have to have a whole series of those Return-Home-To-Dallas performances.

I also think we're going to have to play some serious lawyer ball. We need to get them in foul trouble to get their good defenders on the bench (Beverley and Howard). I saw a stat on ClutchFans where they're a top 10 defense with those two, but one of the worst in the league without them. They're going to grab and flop all over the place. I hate it, but I think we have to do the same thing. Wes is a great flopper, but our other guys suck at it. It's the playoffs, and successful teams do it well.

 

[maxiep]

I know he hasn't played in ages, but I think Freeland is huge for us.

First, he's six fouls, which we are going to need as I think we put Howard on the line quite a bit (he's shooting less than 55% this year from the stripe).

Second, he sets great picks and plays solid interior defense. I also love his rebounding ability.

Third, it means we don't have to go small when Lopez gets into foul trouble, which he most certainly will with Howard.

From a stat point of view, I don't think he'll be impactful, but from a rotational standpoint, I think he'll be huge.

 

[Boise Blazer]

I am just not as mentally prepared as I should be for that game that is just going to be blatantly fucked up by the refs. I want so bad for our team to just have a fair shot at this series (I feel like Blazer fans have earned it) and I know there is going to be at least one game that is so bad that we are all going to be somehow still shocked that it really was that bad. Like we didnt know it was coming when we all do. I realize that all of the games are going to have their moments but I feel like at least one will be just horribly over the top bad. How we bounce back from that is a huge factor.

 

[maxiep]

I am just not as mentally prepared as I should be for that game that is just going to be blatantly fucked up by the refs. I want so bad for our team to just have a fair shot at this series (I feel like Blazer fans have earned it) and I know there is going to be at least one game that is so bad that we are all going to be somehow still shocked that it really was that bad. Like we didnt know it was coming when we all do. I realize that all of the games are going to have their moments but I feel like at least one will be just horribly over the top bad. How we bounce back from that is a huge factor.

We really let shit calls by the refs get in our head. I think a huge problem is that Stotts never seems to stick up for his players. You see it time after time after time with Popovich, when he sees a crap call he'll go out of his way to get a T and show up the refs. It always seems to work, as the refs change to Pops' point of view.

For once, I would love to see Stotts lose it on the sideline, even if it meant getting chucked. There is a rule against flopping, and it should be upheld. If they won't call it against Houston, then they're ignoring it.

Also, I think our video guys should replay EVERY SINGLE flop on our Jumbotron and show up the refs if they won't call it. HCP, get to steppin'!