Whither Shaeden?

[inconceivable]

Detroit doesn't have shooters. They're going to be the worst team in the NBA again.

Killian Hayes (PG), Cade (PG), Ivey (Combo), Ausar Thompson (calls himself a PG) are their top picks in the last 4 drafts.

All need the ball and none are good 3-point shooters.

Not sure what their plan was.

Cooper Flagg

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

I won’t go that far whatsoever. He’ll average 22 plus this season and we will win around 23 games. They usually don’t award allstar appearances for guys like that on teams like that. But still happy for Ant.

I’m thinking we will win 42

 

[THE HCP]

I’m thinking we will win 42

I would love that many wins……but man the west is tough!!!!

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

We actually have solid guards in Scoot Sharpe Ant Tisse Malcolm Skylar

And solid centers in Ayton and Timelord

Forward is our weakest. Grant is solid but hopefully at least one of Walker Murray Rupert Camara and Knox, announce their presence

Knox

 

[blazerfan11]

Cooper Flagg

They did get the 1st pick in 2021.
But, Detroit was the worst team last season and didn't even get into the top 4.
in 2022, they were the 3rd worst team, and also ended up with the 5th pick.
It's not something they can count on.

 

[blazerfan11]

I would love that many wins……but man the west is tough!!!!

San Antonio vs OKC was a fun game to watch tonight.
Neither team was a playoff team last season and there's no way I would have watched that Pre-season matchup last season.
More talent in 2023.

 

[inconceivable]

San Antonio vs OKC was a fun game to watch tonight.
Neither team was a playoff team last season and there's no way I would have watched that Pre-season matchup last season.
More talent in 2023.

Chet and Wemby as advertised

 

[ebott]

18-20 FGA/game for Ayton seems pretty high. 15/game would have put him 3rd in the league last year among centers.

I know, but it's what I want soooooo bad. I'm so sick of the Dame hero ball shtick. I wanna see us run a lot of real plays where the goal is to have Ayton shoot. Seems like 90% of the time when Dame and Nurk had a pick and roll, the goal was to get Dame the shot.

I'm silly enough to believe the hype about us trying to be a running team. With Scoot in charge it might happen. But there's gonna be a lot of teams that get fur real about fast break defense and we'll have to run a bunch of half court sets. The play I wanna see the most is an Ayton and Simons pick and roll (or pop) with the goal being to get Ayton a good shot.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I'm seeing a lot of people expecting Ant and Ayton to get 18-20 shots a game, each (I've seen several people here predict Ant will average 25; at last year's pace, that will require 20 FGA/game). Grant will get 15-16. Scoot probably 10-12. Brogdon probably 10-12. Thybulle 5-6. Williams 5-6

that right there is 83-86 shots and that doesn't include shots for Sharpe or any of the other Blazer. Meanwhile, Portland averaged 85.4 FGA last season. Scoot would have to have magical powers and I'd really expect him to shoot more than 10 times a game; he averaged 14 a game in g-league

What's the chance all these guys play 82 games, a fraction of 1%?

Basically need to remove one or so of the starters shots to adjust for that. So the shots might be just fine as is.

 

[kjironman1]

Ant might be option 1, but Sharpe will take some of those.

I see Grant getting the next nod. Then Ayton.

 

[TBpup]

No, what’s interesting is how everybody is overlooking and blowing off the player who will be our Number 1 option and leading scorer this season, Anfernee Simons.

It's not overlooking.....but perhaps more to the fact that we have been down this road before....many times. A smallish guard who shoots a lot, is best with the ball in his hands, and doesn't play much defense. That hasn't exactly worked out that well from a team standpoint no matter how many points that particular player puts up. A #1 option who really only plays one side of the ball is historically, not a key to team success.

 

[STOMP]

I know, but it's what I want soooooo bad. I'm so sick of the Dame hero ball shtick. I wanna see us run a lot of real plays where the goal is to have Ayton shoot. Seems like 90% of the time when Dame and Nurk had a pick and roll, the goal was to get Dame the shot.

I'm silly enough to believe the hype about us trying to be a running team. With Scoot in charge it might happen. But there's gonna be a lot of teams that get fur real about fast break defense and we'll have to run a bunch of half court sets. The play I wanna see the most is an Ayton and Simons pick and roll (or pop) with the goal being to get Ayton a good shot.

I'm with most of what you're saying, but not for the goal being setting up Ayton for shots. I'm looking forward to Ant or Scoot running Pick and Rolls with Ayton with the goal being getting clean looks for any one of their shooters. They've enough shooting talent to not have to force feed anyone. I expect they'll have a much more even distribution of shots then in past years.

STOMP

 

[Cugel]

From that video he seems incredibly low key, borderline depressed. Doesn't exactly come across as stoked to be a NBA player. Hopefully he doesn't play that way. Don't know what he means when he said "I can't go shopping anymore". He REALLY wants to be in TOR is my HO.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I only used one stat from last season...Portland's FGA/game average of 85.4. Now, the Blazers ranked 25th in FGA so that's on the low side. The median was 88.5 and that's only 3 more attempts a game; that really doesn't change the math in any significant way. Utah was 10th in FGA at 89.8 which was only 4.5 more shots a game. In other words, last year is an appropriate gauge for what is realistic in terms of average available FGA/game

now obviously, players get injured and miss games. Trades can happen. Players can be waived and others signed. So going strictly by team FGA vs the sum of players' FGA won't match. Last season, the sum of the rotation players was in the 75-80 range, when I do a quick addition in my head. But again, that still suggests that some of the projections people are making seem way off. If Ant and Ayton average a combined 37 FGA, that would leave 43-47, or so, for Grant-Scoot-Brogdon-Sharpe-Thybulle-Williams and whichever forward climbs to the top of the Walker/Camara/Knox/Murray/Rupert quintet. Seems like a lot of guys to share what may be 50 shots, at most

I'm also thinking people are expecting the Blazers to run a lot more and get up more shots. That may happen but in order for it to do so, the Blazers will have to rebound well...can't run without the ball...and I think rebounding may be a challenge for this year's team

I realize that but it was a key stat IMO. The rest was based on what fans think will happen and we are all guessing on that because the team is so new and they have not played one game yet together. Either way, I am confident that Sharpe will get enough shots if he proves he deserves them. The creme will rise. I assume the number of shots by each player will also vary depending on the weakness of the competition and how Chauncey decides to attack them.

 

[Shaboid]

I think that Shaeden will have some excellent games, but I also think he's going to have quite a few duds this year. Ya gotta think, he will typically have the other teams best defender in his face most of the season. Long wings are going to make it hard for him to get his shot off. I hope that is a skill he worked on the most this offseason. He's gonna dunk on people and get plenty of minutes. Hopefully he can hit at least one of the .50/.40/.90 categories or at least be close to them. I feel like that would be a successful season for his development.

 

[Pinwheel1]

If the Blazers aren't down by 3, I'd give the ball to Sharpe. Sharpe's finishing ability around the hoop is better than Simons.

It doesn't matter how someone finishes if he can't get to the hoop with the ball. Teams will clog the paint if Sharpe starts attacking the basket every time the game is on the line.

Simons might be the best 3-level scorer on the team. He has a variety of ways to score. (including the hook shot) Shae seems to have the potential to surpass him once his handles improve and I do like his pull-up jumper potential. (hard to block)

When the game is on the line and we are down by 1 or two, the ball needs to be in the hands of the players who can get a good clean look and you have to have versatility to your game. Even Dame with all his heroics, struggled at times getting a good look at the end of games. How many times did he let the clock wind down before taking a contested 3-point shot? Or attacked the basket in traffic and did not get a call. The pull-up J is a huge weapon. Both Ant and Shae have that ability.

Keep in mind Sharpe shot free throws at 71%. That will need to improve.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think that Shaeden will have some excellent games, but I also think he's going to have quite a few duds this year. Ya gotta think, he will typically have the other teams best defender in his face most of the season. Long wings are going to make it hard for him to get his shot off. I hope that is a skill he worked on the most this offseason. He's gonna dunk on people and get plenty of minutes. Hopefully he can hit at least one of the .50/.40/.90 categories or at least be close to them. I feel like that would be a successful season for his development.

I have very little concern about Sharpe getting his shot off, even against long wings.

 

[Shaboid]

I have very little concern about Sharpe getting his shot off, even against long wings.

I hope you're right. Like I said, I still think he has .50/.40/.90 potential, but don't you think he will see a higher level of defense than he did last year though?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I hope you're right. Like I said, I still think he has .50/.40/.90 potential, but don't you think he will see a higher level of defense than he did last year though?

I'm sure he'll see a higher level of defense--I'm just saying that with his mechanics, length, and elevation, I'm not worried about challengers.

 

[wizenheimer]

What's the chance all these guys play 82 games, a fraction of 1%?

Basically need to remove one or so of the starters shots to adjust for that. So the shots might be just fine as is.

I already mentioned that. The sum of individual player's FGA is always more than the FGA/average of the team, and that gap gets wider in the last third of the season; not only because of injuries but because of trades, waivers, and 10-day contracts

Still, if you figure 18-19 for Ant; 15-16 each for Grant & Ayton; 11-12 each for Scoot, Brogdon, & Sharpe...well, that's already over 80 shots for 6 rotation players when the Blazers as a team will probably average less than 90 (and of those 6, Brogdon is the only one with any kind of injury history). And that doesn't include Thybulle, Williams, Walker, or any of the other forwards; or any 3rd string guard

injuries can level that a bit, but young teams like Portland usually don't have a lot of injuries

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Yeah, if we're going to have the kind of offensive balance everyone seems to want, everyone's going to have to be ratcheted down a touch from those estimates.

Ant - 18
Grant - 15
Ayton - 14
Sharpe - 10
Scoot - 10
Brogdon - 10
Thybulle - 6
Williams - 6

That would be 89 shots. If we play at a fast pace and average 90+ FGA, that's not unfathomable at all.

 

[BIG Q]

Personally I would like to see all starters average 14 shots per game, with the exception of Thybulle. If he starts he should only get half that with the other shots spread between the other starters. With that, the three main subs should get around six shots per game, with variances for hot hand or mismatches. I do not think Ant has "earned" the featured scorer title over others on the roster. I would love to see Scoot running the show and getting the ball to everyone and letting them earn their shots by making the shots given. Ant is not Lillard. I would hate to see him start a game going 1 for 7 and hear that he just needs to "shoot his way out." Find the hot hand and play team ball, not hero ball. Ant does not need to carry the team. Those days are over. Sorry, Ayton, Grant, Brogdon, Sharpe and Williams are proven scorers. Scoot, we will see, but I suspect he can get his at will. Share the damn ball.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Personally I would like to see all starters average 14 shots per game, with the exception of Thybulle. If he starts he should only get half that with the other shots spread between the other starters. With that, the three main subs should get around six shots per game, with variances for hot hand or mismatches.

Based on that breakdown, are you listing Sharpe as a starter who gets 14 FGA or one of the three main subs who gets 6?

 

[BBert]

Withering Heights

 

[BIG Q]

Based on that breakdown, are you listing Sharpe as a starter who gets 14 FGA or one of the three main subs who gets 6?

I also mentioned to let Scoot find the hot hand or to take advantage of a mismatch. I certainly want Sharpe getting as many shots as starters, as long as he has it going. If not, no need to force things. That is really what I would like to see, no hero ball. There is talent on the team, but there certainly is not a Lillard on the team that demands 20 shots per game even if he is having an off night. Personally I want Sharpe starting with Scoot and Ant off the bench. I have resigned myself to the fact that will not happen and will not be a good thing for Portland. Portland won't be contending for anything. If Scoot and Sharpe is the future backcourt getting them rolling right away is important. Ant and Brogdon in the mix is just weird. Brogdon as the sixth man I love as long as he accepts that role. If not move him for his own good. He deserves more. As for Ant, I only forsee future roster imbalance with him being another short, ball dominant SG that plays zero defense. I accept he can play PG too, but not at the expense of Scoot's development in my eyes. If Brogdon wants to stay then I want Ant traded for anything that frees up room for Sharpe and his superior athleticism and height at the position. I have faith he can learn defense as well. We know Ant can not as he has had five years to do so.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If Brogdon wants to stay then I want Ant traded for anything that frees up room for Sharpe and his superior athleticism and height at the position. I have faith he can learn defense as well. We know Ant can not as he has had five years to do so.

Devin Booker was terrible defensively for 6 years before becoming average. It may be unlikely for Ant to learn defense, but not impossible.

I also agree with trading Ant, hopefully for young, unproven forward prospects with upside.

 

[Idog1976]

Personally I would like to see all starters average 14 shots per game, with the exception of Thybulle. If he starts he should only get half that with the other shots spread between the other starters. With that, the three main subs should get around six shots per game, with variances for hot hand or mismatches. I do not think Ant has "earned" the featured scorer title over others on the roster. I would love to see Scoot running the show and getting the ball to everyone and letting them earn their shots by making the shots given. Ant is not Lillard. I would hate to see him start a game going 1 for 7 and hear that he just needs to "shoot his way out." Find the hot hand and play team ball, not hero ball. Ant does not need to carry the team. Those days are over. Sorry, Ayton, Grant, Brogdon, Sharpe and Williams are proven scorers. Scoot, we will see, but I suspect he can get his at will. Share the damn ball.

YESSSS!!!!!! Exactly this!!!!

 

[Idog1976]

Based on that breakdown, are you listing Sharpe as a starter who gets 14 FGA or one of the three main subs who gets 6?

If Sharpe gets less than 10 shots a game Billups should be fired. I honestly think he should get 14+ every game.

 

[Idog1976]

Devin Booker was terrible defensively for 6 years before becoming average. It may be unlikely for Ant to learn defense, but not impossible.

I also agree with trading Ant, hopefully for young, unproven forward prospects with upside.

Packaging Ant with Grant or Brogdon for a young forward (go ahead and throw in a pick or two for Scottie Barnes e.g.) who IS proven is also a great idea.

 

[kjironman1]