ABM is not gonna like you!
lol sorry, I felt this way earlier in the off-season, but this article basically says it how I feel
"Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons (Current O-Rank: #2)
He was an absolute monster last year in his first season as a featured back. And assuming he stays healthy all year he will probably be very good again this year. I just do not think he will be nearly good enough to warrant the second pick.
The cliched reasoning for many who are anti-Turner near the top of the draft is that he went over 370 carries last year. While such a single season workload is always concerning, using 370 as some sort of magic number appears to be a bit overdone.
So I don’t think Turner will experience a dropoff simply because he passed some arbitrary amount of carries, especially since it was his first season as a full-time starter and theoretically he still has “fresh” legs. Rather, I think the perfect confluence of events that led to his incredible season probably will not be in place this year:
* He was healthy all year last year, and two straight seasons of perfect health for a RB is rare.
* The Falcons played a last place schedule in 2008, while the opponents (including all of the NFC East teams) are tougher this year.
* 17 TDs is a lot, and TDs are a number that can fluctuate from year to year even for the best running backs. Even a small but reasonable drop to 12 TDs, which would still be an excellent number, would decrease Turner’s value.
* Turner does not catch the ball out of the backfield (6 rec in 2008), meaning he does not have non-rushing touches to add to his stats against teams that are stiff against the run, or if his TDs do in fact decrease.
Additionally, if you want to discuss the Peterson-Turner debate atop the draft, Turner is a little bit too much of a boom-or-bust type player for my tastes. Look at his game log from 2008. He had six games where he rushed for 70 yards or less. In those six games he totaled 2 touchdowns. That means there were six weeks out of the year where your top pick is not contributing significantly to your efforts to win. Sure, his other 10 games were stellar, but I like a little less variance from my top dog on a week-to-week basis. Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, had only one game in which he ran for 75 yards or less and had 15 more receptions than Turner. I expect their TDs (17-10 advantage for Turner in ‘08) to at least even out this season, negating the main advantage Turner had over Peterson last year.
I would probably still take Michael Turner in the late first round or early second round (not that he’d be there) if push came to shove, but I am just not sold on him as a legit competitor to Adrian Peterson for the top spot. I also like my first pick to have more than one great season under their belt. Minimizing risk while still getting a great player is important.
Hence, I would feel more comfortable taking guys such as Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Clinton Portis over Turner in 2009. I much prefer picking a little bit safer and going after consistent production in the early rounds and then trying to hit home runs later on. That’s how I ended up with Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald last year to anchor my team, with late round picks Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Kurt Warner (2 QB league) putting me over the top for a title.
At the end of the day, you will most likely still get a very productive #1 back in Turner, just be wary of how high you select him and the more proven production you may be passing up."
http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/20...-michael-turner-jones-drew-deangleo-williams/