Who believes in "must wins"?

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BrianFromWA

BrianFromWA

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If you set up your schedule, and figure on the "50 wins just to get in" assumption to start: we have 27 now, and need to go 23-15 the rest of the way. Here are the "should be locks to win" (home wins against average or worse teams, road wins against horrible teams):

1/26 @LAC
1/28 CHA
2/6 @OKC
2/8 NYK
2/11 OKC
2/16 MEM
2/18 LAC
2/27 @MIN
3/4 IND
3/7 MIN
3/13 NJN
3/16 @MEM
3/23 PHI
3/28 MEM
4/3 @OKC
4/7 @MEM
4/11 @LAC
4/13 OKC

Only gets us 18 of those 23 wins we need. So we need 5 more from the 13 "doable" games (road wins against "average" teams, home wins against good teams):

1/31 UTH
2/12 @GSW
2/20 ATL
3/1 SAS
3/9 LAL
3/11 DAL
3/15 @ATL
3/18 @IND
3/21 @mil
3/26 PHX
3/31 UTH
4/10 LAL
4/15 DEN

I'm not counting on any of the "roadies against good teams".

So there are definitely games we SHOULD win to minimize the burden of us winning a harder game later. I don't think anyone would dispute it's easier to beat a Clippers team without 4 of its best players than ATL on the road. But if we don't win these games, the amount we have to win from the harder groups increases, and therefore our playoff chances go down. That makes 'em pretty close to "musts" in my book. Others may have different versions of my book.

BTW: We're 4-3 so far against the "gotta haves", and 6-8 vs. the "Doables".
 
I would agree with pretty much everything but I would add that games against DEN and UTA take on added "must win" value. If we can win our division then we dont have to worry about how many wins we have. It definitely wont be easily but those games are even bigger because of that. And PHX & DAL have a little more meaning as well since they are right there with us.
 
There's no such thing as a, "lock for a win" with a young team.

That being said, I'd take the Phi and @Min off my most likely will win list. Those 2 are toss-ups in my opinion. We don't match up well with Phi and Min will be tough at home.
 
This game is a must win. With all of the injuries Portland is more talented at every possition. No excuses whatsoever to lose this one tonight
 
The only thing I worry about is that some of the bottom feeders of the first half of the season like the Thunder and Wolves are somewhat improved and not nearly the "gimme" that they might have been back in November or December.

I predicted 47 wins in the pre-season and I stand by that prediction now, but I also think it's "only" going to take 45 wins to get into the playoffs, not 50 so I'm not as worried about hitting that mark: the Mavs are extremely inconistent, the Suns are a mess, Kirilienko is now out and may need surgery on his foot, who knows how healthy Yao and McGrady will be in the stretch run -- the door is open, all the Blazers have to do is step through (if they can stay healthy).
 
Nikolokolus said:
The only thing I worry about is that some of the bottom feeders of the first half of the season like the Thunder and Wolves are somewhat improved and not nearly the "gimme" that they might have been back in November or December.

I predicted 47 wins in the pre-season and I stand by that prediction now, but I also think it's "only" going to take 45 wins to get into the playoffs, not 50 so I'm not as worried about hitting that mark: the Mavs are extremely inconistent, the Suns are a mess, Kirilienko is now out and may need surgery on his foot, who knows how healthy Yao and McGrady will be in the stretch run -- the door is open, all the Blazers have to do is step through (if they can stay healthy).
Click to expand...

Amen, brother. While the Blazers haven't been tearing up the league as of late, I sure am glad I'm not a Suns, Mavs or Jazz fan seeing how they've fared lately. But yet, somehow, some way - people seem to think that all three of those teams will pull it together while we tank the rest of the season. We're a young team, yes, but give the guys from friggin' credit when credit is due! The fact that they're where they are in spite of being this young says a lot but apparently a "fan's" job is to criticize and not so much support?
 
playoff teams beat teams they are supposed to. of course we might lose a few we are suppose to win but we will also win a few we arent suppose to. as long as we win most of our easy games....


but if we really are a playoff team....we need to stop mnakin excuses like quick said and start feeding on bad teams while winning on the road vs teams like dallas, etc.
 
MIXUM said:
playoff teams beat teams they are supposed to. of course we might lose a few we are suppose to win but we will also win a few we arent suppose to. as long as we win most of our easy games....


but if we really are a playoff team....we need to stop mnakin excuses like quick said and start feeding on bad teams while winning on the road vs teams like dallas, etc.
Click to expand...

You keep saying stuff like this, but when have you heard the Blazers making "excuses?" Or are you referring to the idle comments of forum posters -- as if that had anything to do with a team making or missing the playoffs?
 
I don't believe in "must wins" outside of elimination games (or quasi-elimination games, like when losing a game means your opponent has to lose all three remaining games for you to make the playoffs).

Portland won't win every game against weaker opponents, but they will "steal" some tough road games. If you count up all the "should win" games as wins and all the "should lose" games as losses, that will give a pretty good projection. The team will probably drop some should-win games and pick up some should-lose games, so the exact route to that projection isn't very predictable.
 
As long as we are seeing continued development and improvement in our players, wins are un-important except for how they contribute to our overall development and confidence.

That's what this year is about.

We're not in the title hunt.

We're baking a cake.
 
MARIS61 said:
As long as we are seeing continued development and improvement in our players, wins are un-important except for how they contribute to our overall development and confidence.

That's what this year is about.

We're not in the title hunt.

We're baking a cake.
Click to expand...

Cake sucks, I want pie.
 
BrianFromWA said:
If you set up your schedule, and figure on the "50 wins just to get in" assumption to start: we have 27 now, and need to go 23-15 the rest of the way. Here are the "should be locks to win" (home wins against average or worse teams, road wins against horrible teams):
Click to expand...

A couple things: we have 26 wins now, not 27. Unless you're posting from the future and we have already won tonight's game.

Also, Dallas is currently in playoff position on pace for 46 wins. It's looking more and more like 50 will EASILY get you in. 46 is the real goal, which means we only need to pick up a couple from the 'do-able' list.
 
English toffee FTW.

english_toffee.jpg
 
Nikolokolus said:
The only thing I worry about is that some of the bottom feeders of the first half of the season like the Thunder and Wolves are somewhat improved and not nearly the "gimme" that they might have been back in November or December.
Click to expand...

True. The Wolves have won, gasp, 10 of their last 12 games. We haven't done that at any point this season.
 
KingSpeed said:
True. The Wolves have won, gasp, 10 of their last 12 games. We haven't done that at any point this season.
Click to expand...

No, but we've won 13 over a period of 16 games, including two against the T'Wolves... plus the Rockets, Magic, Heat x2, Pistons, and Hornets.
 
True that.

On the subject of "must wins," I started like two threads in here about how much we needed to win those two games against Denver that we ended up splitting. If we had won both, we would now be tied with them. As it is, we're two games back. That's what these races come down to. Those big time head to head games against your division opponents and other opponents that are right there in the hunt. You don't get to play them over at the end of the season so you must win them while they're there.
 
I love that our last game of the season is at home against them. It may come down to that. That could be a really good game. I have a feeling that a lot of teams will still be jockeying for position on the last day.
 
Definitely. I like that our last TWO games are at home, the first one being against Oklahoma City. That will be a crazy couple nights.
 
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