Who Gets Ramon Sessions?

[BalancedMan]

So Ramon Sessions is looking like an increasingly promising potential FA with the Bucks not shedding salary and thus not being able to clear more cap space to sign him.

Looking over the list of NBA team salaries, here are the list that could be under the cap, depending on where it will be set.

Toronto
Philadelphia
Los Angeles Clippers
Atlanta
Chicago
Detroit
OKC
Memphis
Minnesota
New Jersey
Portland

Remove the teams that have no need for a PG (Toronto - Calderon, LAC - Davis, Chicago - Rose, OKC - Westbrook, Detroit - Stucky, Memphis - Conley, New Jersey - Harris)

That leaves Atlanta, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Portland...and Milwaukee is certain to be in the mix as well.

So it's possible that we didn't do a trade for Jefferson in order to be able to potentially snatch Sessions away this summer since we'll be able to offer a bit more money than most teams in the league. That's my theory anyways. This FA crop is horrible, but we have to spend it, as there is no reason to not do so other than financially, and we have Paul Allen money.

Anyone else get this same thought?

 

[free_lafrentz]

Anyone else get this same thought?

Yes. He's #1 on my list for FA's right now.

 

[Minstrel]

That leaves Atlanta, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Portland...and Milwaukee is certain to be in the mix as well.

Milwaukee can't match beyond the MLE.

Do Atlanta, Philly and Minnesota project to have cap space in excess of the MLE?

 

[andalusian]

I think Philly will if Miller does not resign, Atlanta will - 'Sotta will not be enough under the cap to offer more than the MLE (unless something changed with today's trades)

EDIT: Actually - it looks like Philly will not be under the cap even if they do not resign Miller.

So - it's just us or Atlanta, it seems.

 

[illmatic99]

Marvin Williams is my #1 target for this summer.

 

[B-Roy]

Yeah, I think Philly and ATL will both make a play for the younger PG.

I would think that Miller and Bibby and second options if they can't get Sessions.

 

[Minstrel]

Marvin Williams is my #1 target for this summer.

He'd be a great player to get, but Atlanta can match any offer and probably will.

 

[free_lafrentz]

Milwaukee can't match beyond the MLE.

Do Atlanta, Philly and Minnesota project to have cap space in excess of the MLE?

Just by eyeballing the team salaries in the trade machine...

Minny will have around 2.5m in cap room.
Philly will have around 6-7m in cap room.
Atlanta will have around 7-10m in cap room.

These numbers are also assuming they don't resign ANY of their players.

AKA: Bibby, Marvin, Miller, Sessions, (maybe Lee) would all be available.

Portland will be, what? around 7-9m?

EDIT: Trade Machine still has McCants on Minny's roster, who I had accounted for. Either way, it doesn't look like Minny will have enough to do anything.

 

[B-Roy]

Milwaukee can't match beyond the MLE.

Do Atlanta, Philly and Minnesota project to have cap space in excess of the MLE?

Minstrel, if Portland only has around 6 million in cap (Let LaFrentz expire, let Frye expire, take the options of Blake and Outlaw), doesn't it just become an MLE bidding war for Sessions?

 

[BalancedMan]

Milwaukee can't match beyond the MLE.

Do Atlanta, Philly and Minnesota project to have cap space in excess of the MLE?

I meant Milwaukee will certainly try to resign Sessions. I'm aware that he'll probably cost more than the MLE.

I was using Storyteller's salaries list to look at projected cap space.
http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09salaries.htm

Portland: 58,758,154
Atlanta: 48,220,363
Philly: 58,967,337
Minn: 53,825,953

Granted, after looking at the numbers again, realize that these numbers will change. For example, the Portland number assumes a one-year qualifying offer to both Frye and Diogu, retaining both Blake and Outlaw, and counting salaries for Koponen and Freeland.

Currently the NBA Salary cap is about $58 million, and it might go down next year. So after losing the salaries for Frye/Diogu and Blake if necessary, we'll be under the cap a decent amount regardless of how much it goes down.

Philly will actually be right about at the cap, so they won't have anything but the MLE either. Minnesota can lose another 3.5 million by cutting Mark Madsen.

In my opinion Atlanta seems like the other potential suitor if they don't resign Bibby. Atlanta has a lot of room (in fact they can gain $8 million more if they renounce Marvin Williams...which is unlikely) and an obvious need at PG since their last several tries (Law, Claxton) have not worked out.

So it depends on the situation, but I think that Atlanta and Portland are in the best position to attract Sessions.

What kind of contract do you think he can get? Certainly T.J. Ford type of money, probably better (meaning Devin Harris type of money) starting in that $8-10 million dollar range. Hopefully Atlanta will be cheap and not want to spend the money.

 

[B-Roy]

What kind of contract do you think he can get? Certainly T.J. Ford type of money, probably better (meaning Devin Harris type of money) starting in that $8-10 million dollar range. Hopefully Atlanta will be cheap and not want to spend the money.

Portland won't be in the position to offer that much money unless Blake or Outlaw get renounced.

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

Am I the only one not very familiar with Ramon Sessions? Someone please enlighten me.

 

[Minstrel]

Minstrel, if Portland only has around 6 million in cap (Let LaFrentz expire, let Frye expire, take the options of Blake and Outlaw), doesn't it just become an MLE bidding war for Sessions?

Absolutely. But if Portland renounces Blake, they'd have $10 million or so, and can exceed the MLE and cut their competition down to almost nothing.

 

[B-Roy]

Absolutely. But if Portland renounces Blake, they'd have $10 million or so, and can exceed the MLE and cut their competition down to almost nothing.

True. Then it comes down to Atlanta and Portland.

I don't see us renouncing Blake though, and I don't see KP risking 10 million a year on a player who has only played well for 1 and 1/3 seasons.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Am I the only one not very familiar with Ramon Sessions? Someone please enlighten me.

Basically, we could have drafted him. Basically, we drafted T. Green. Basically, this was a GIANT mistake. Anything else you need to know about what he's done in the L can be found via google, espn, etc.

 

[Minstrel]

True. Then it comes down to Atlanta and Portland.

I don't see us renouncing Blake though, and I don't see KP risking 10 million a year on a player who has only played well for 1 and 1/3 seasons.

It depends on his analysis of Sessions. I could see it. The average salary now is around $6 million. Committing $4 million above average for a good young point guard with upside seems pretty reasonable. And it may not cost $10 million. Might only cost $8 million, for example.

If Portland can get Sessions, I think KP would definitely renounce Blake.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I say, we should sign Sessions, then sign and trade for M. Williams.

 

[free_lafrentz]

True. Then it comes down to Atlanta and Portland.

I don't see us renouncing Blake though, and I don't see KP risking 10 million a year on a player who has only played well for 1 and 1/3 seasons.

Sessions is one of KP's favorites from the draft a few years ago if i recall.

Besides, your argument about a him not "risking 10 million a year on a player who has only played well for 1 and 1/3 seasons" doesn't hold water when you consider he was unwilling to part with Bayless, Outlaw, Sergio, or Batum today.

None of them have near the track record of success that Sessions already has.

He's also young.

 

[BalancedMan]

Portland Cap Space:

Projected 2009 Total Salary (Storyteller): 58,758,154

Subtract:

Ike Diogu: 3,946,875
Channing Frye: 4,264,761
Steve Blake: 4,000,000
Travis Outlaw: 3,600,000
Unsigned Rookies: 824,200 (x2)

Current NBA Salary Cap: 58,680,000
Usually the cap goes up. This year it might go down. Let's assume is stays relatively the same.

Take out Diogu/Frye = $50,546,518
+ Koponen/Freeland Salary = $48,898,518
+ Blake = 44,898,519
+ Outlaw = 41,298,518

NOTE: This includes Darius Miles being included.

There is no way Outlaw is let go. He is too valuable of a player and has too economical of a contract to be let go, under just about any circumstances. Blake, as others have mentioned, is not a NBA caliber-starter and is expendable, though preferably not so.

So if we don't bring over Koponen/Freeland and let Diogu/Frye go, we'll have about $10 million in cap room if the cap stays where it is. If it digresses, then we'll have less room but so will everyone else. That should be enough to sign Sessions.

Somebody check my math, and if I'm wrong call me out. No worries, as I don't claim to know what I'm doing.

 

[B-Roy]

It depends on his analysis of Sessions. I could see it. The average salary now is around $6 million. Committing $4 million above average for a good young point guard with upside seems pretty reasonable. And it may not cost $10 million. Might only cost $8 million, for example.

If Portland can get Sessions, I think KP would definitely renounce Blake.

Ehh...depends on how much KP values Sessions.

KP certainly drives a hard bargain, and I would not at all be surprised to see him pass up an opportunity to sign Sessions for even the MLE.

 

[B-Roy]

Sessions is one of KP's favorites from the draft a few years ago if i recall.

Besides, your argument about a him not "risking 10 million a year on a player who has only played well for 1 and 1/3 seasons" doesn't hold water when you consider he was unwilling to part with Bayless, Outlaw, Sergio, or Batum today.

None of them have near the track record of success that Sessions already has.

He's also young.

The difference is that Sessions would be paid 10 million and Bayless/Outlaw/Sergio/Batum are all on cheap as dirt contracts.

Somebody check my math, and if I'm wrong call me out. No worries, as I don't claim to know what I'm doing.

How do you get rid of the unsigned rookie salaries?

Don't we also have to sign our first round pick to a ~1.5 million deal?

 

[free_lafrentz]

Portland Cap Space:

Projected 2009 Total Salary (Storyteller): 58,758,154

Subtract:

Ike Diogu: 3,946,875
Channing Frye: 4,264,761
Steve Blake: 4,000,000
Travis Outlaw: 3,600,000
Unsigned Rookies: 824,200 (x2)

Current NBA Salary Cap: 58,680,000
Usually the cap goes up. This year it might go down. Let's assume is stays relatively the same.

Take out Diogu/Frye = $50,546,518
+ Koponen/Freeland Salary = $48,898,518
+ Blake = 44,898,519
+ Outlaw = 41,298,518

NOTE: This includes Darius Miles being included.

There is no way Outlaw is let go. He is too valuable of a player and has too economical of a contract to be let go, under just about any circumstances. Blake, as others have mentioned, is not a NBA caliber-starter and is expendable, though preferably not so.

So if we don't bring over Koponen/Freeland and let Diogu/Frye go, we'll have about $10 million in cap room if the cap stays where it is. If it digresses, then we'll have less room but so will everyone else. That should be enough to sign Sessions.

Somebody check my math, and if I'm wrong call me out. No worries, as I don't claim to know what I'm doing.

When you say Diogu you mean Ruffin, right?

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Portland Cap Space:



So if we don't bring over Koponen/Freeland and let Diogu/Frye go, we'll have about $10 million in cap room if the cap stays where it is. If it digresses, then we'll have less room but so will everyone else. That should be enough to sign Sessions.

Not true, I'm pretty sure even if Koponen and Freeland don't come over, that you still have their cap holds on any available cap space you may have that offseason

 

[andalusian]

Portland won't be in the position to offer that much money unless Blake or Outlaw get renounced.

Not true. If you remove Ike, and renounce Frye Portland's salary will be 48,898,118, add whatever the cap-hold is for the rookie - and they are very likely over the MLE.

 

[free_lafrentz]

The difference is that Sessions would be paid 10 million and Bayless/Outlaw/Sergio/Batum are all on cheap as dirt contracts.


How do you get rid of the unsigned rookie salaries.

Don't we also have to sign our first round pick to a ~1.5 million deal?

My point is Sessions, a 22 year old PG, appears to be a rising star taking similar strides as Devin Harris several years ago. He's much more advanced than Bayless or Sergio, even Blake and has been playing at a high level (which is continually improving) for over a year now.

If KP "believes" in his guys like Sergio, Batum and Bayless (the 2nd two playing with under a year of experience) to perform this season, why wouldn't KP "believe" in another one of his "guys" he had eyed at the draft a few years ago?

Sessions was on his list and was impressive at the team tryout if I recall.

It's just a gut feeling, but Sessions is probably much higher on KP's "get" list than Carter and Jefferson ever will be or were.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Ehh...depends on how much KP values Sessions.

KP certainly drives a hard bargain, and I would not at all be surprised to see him pass up an opportunity to sign Sessions for even the MLE.

How does "driving a hard bargain" equate with passing up on a huge upside player for "even the MLE?" Truth is KP has never had cap flexibility to play around with heading into an off-season to make any kind of moves so we really don't know what he'll do when presented an opportunity like this.

Heh, now is it possible he passes on Sessions? Sure, but I don't think it'll be because of an unwillingness to pay for talent.

 

[BalancedMan]

Granted, the money could be thrown at Milsap, Lee, Ariza or someone else (B.Gordon...no thanks).

Another option is that Atlanta may commit a lot of money to Marvin Williams and someone else, like Sessions, and then Portland can pry someone like Josh Childress at a cheaper price.

But KP is smart enough that he knows he needs to spend money and maximize the talent level on the team now, as we'll be over the cap for the foreseeable future. So he'll look to add a solid piece, such as a Sessions. I'm not enamored by most of the SF FA's (Artest, Hedo) and don't think that Ariza would be enough of an upgrade to commit money with Webster and Batum around. PG is clearly our need of help, and we have a good opportunity here to get a player who has shown to be a more than capable player.

 

[andalusian]

How does "driving a hard bargain" equate with passing up on a huge upside player for "even the MLE?" Truth is KP has never had cap flexibility to play around with heading into an off-season to make any kind of moves so we really don't know what he'll do when presented an opportunity like this.

Heh, now is it possible he passes on Sessions? Sure, but I don't think it'll be because of an unwillingness to pay for talent.

KP already passed on Sessions once - in the 2007 draft when he took Kopo over him with the #30 pick.

Time will tell if he still thinks this was the right move or if he tries to get him come this summer.

 

[BalancedMan]

When you say Diogu you mean Ruffin, right?

I was working with the numbers before that deal, as on Storyteller's salaries page. Sure, substitute Ruffin and realize the trade exception. It comes out to the same net effect.

 

[BalancedMan]

KP already passed on Sessions once - in the 2007 draft when he took Kopo over him with the #30 pick.

Time will tell if he still thinks this was the right move or if he tries to get him come this summer.

Everyone makes mistakes. KP's record has been pretty good so far though IMHO.