Why Conservatives Are Petrified of Nate Silver

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Denny Crane said:
Carter won several Southern states, tho. Reagan wasn't a mainstream republican type at all. Reagan and republicans opposed the ERA.

I don't think you're making the case you believe you are.
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Reagan won 49/50 states in 1984, though. He was running against a guy who promised to raise taxes.

Romney won't win that many states, but he'll get over 300 in the EV, and win the popular vote by at least 4 points.
 
Denny Crane said:
Carter won several Southern states, tho. Reagan wasn't a mainstream republican type at all. Reagan and republicans opposed the ERA.

I don't think you're making the case you believe you are.
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perhaps not - didn't pay that much attention to politics in 1980 at age 16. but still i suspect living in the internet/information age has made perceived right wing chauvanism over abortion a much more influentially contentious issue with women now than the ERA was in 1980. repubs were widely split on that then anyway, so i don't know if it's necessarily a parallel.
 
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crowTrobot said:
perhaps not - didn't pay that much attention to politics in 1980 at age 16. but still i suspect living in the internet/information age has made perceived right wing chauvanism over abortion a much more influentially contentious issue with women now than the ERA was in 1980. repubs were widely split on that then anyway, so i don't know if it's necessarily a parallel.
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No, the Abortion wars were huge back then. Big, big issue.
 
Nate Silver has been right more than he's been wrong. Not just on who wins but on which states go which way in Presidential elections. Getting 8 Congressional seats wrong out of 435 is pretty damn good.

Of course, I did see an article by a conservative pundit saying Silver can't be relied on because he's gay. I have no idea whether or not he is. The pundit claims he could tell by Silver's appearance, voice, et al that he's gay and apparently only straight dudes can crunch numbers.
 
crandc said:
Nate Silver has been right more than he's been wrong. Not just on who wins but on which states go which way in Presidential elections. Getting 8 Congressional seats wrong out of 435 is pretty damn good.

Of course, I did see an article by a conservative pundit saying Silver can't be relied on because he's gay. I have no idea whether or not he is. The pundit claims he could tell by Silver's appearance, voice, et al that he's gay and apparently only straight dudes can crunch numbers.
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Uh, get it right. It's only old straight WHITE guys who can crunch numbers.
 
crandc said:
Nate Silver has been right more than he's been wrong. Not just on who wins but on which states go which way in Presidential elections. Getting 8 Congressional seats wrong out of 435 is pretty damn good.

Of course, I did see an article by a conservative pundit saying Silver can't be relied on because he's gay. I have no idea whether or not he is. The pundit claims he could tell by Silver's appearance, voice, et al that he's gay and apparently only straight dudes can crunch numbers.
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It's not 8 wrong out of 435, it's out of ~64.
 
What I don't understand is why everyone named Silver is gay. This pollster, the guy replacing Stern, and the Lone Ranger's horse. There were always rumors about him and Tonto, so I'd think Silver was heehawing during the shenanigans.
 
How did you get 64, Denny? Every congressional seat is up for election every 2 years.
 
crandc said:
How did you get 64, Denny? Every congressional seat is up for election every 2 years.
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Some races are completely uncontested, and some are so one-sided that there's nothing to really predict. For example, Nate Silver predicted there was a 100% chance Nancy Pelosi would be re-elected in 2010 - go figure ;) 100%, not 99.9% or something less.
 
Well, Denny, guess we'll know in 36 hours or so?

Unless it's like 2000.
 
julius said:
was anyone else depressed over the thought of it being 1980 again?
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Not me. If it was 1980 again, knowing what I know now, I would absolutely RULE my high school, instead of how it really happened.
 
Silver just updated his poll.

Obama now up to 92.2% chance of winning the electoral vote. Romney with a 7.8% chance, down from 16.3% last week.

Romney's chances have been steadily nosediving since Oct. 14th.
 
Silver has Obama to win 315 electoral votes. How off is big enough error for you to realize he may not be that accurate? 35 votes? 3 states out of 50?

He also says Obama will win 51% of the popular vote to 48% for Romney. How much of an error is inaccurate? If Romney wins the popular vote, heck, Silver may only be off by 3% out of 100%.

Or was he accurate predicting the house of representatives because he predicted 53 seat net gain for republicans with a 95% certainty +/- 30.

I predict Obama will win 270 electoral votes, +/- 535. With 100% certainty! Boy am I accurate. I'm even accurate if Romney wins all 50 states and the other territories.
 
I'm posting on this thread to eat crow. I thought he was using bad data. He and Marist were spot-on. I couldn't have been more wrong.
 
maxiep said:
I'm posting on this thread to eat crow. I thought he was using bad data. He and Marist were spot-on. I couldn't have been more wrong.
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Thank you! From what I heard, the turn out rates were quite surprising to most pollsters. Dramatically different from 2008 to 2010, then returning to 2008 like numbers in this election of 2012.
 
Let's see. Silver reads the polls then waves his hands and does his magic and comes up with predictions. No matter how Florida goes, his electoral vote prediction is less accurate than many pundits who hit the number on the head (not me, though!).

Where it gets real interesting is where he projects vote share in the states.

Colorado 50.8-48.3, Obama +2.5 --- actual 50.7-47.0, Obama +3.7. Seems like he was off by 50%.
Florida 49.8-49.8, Tie --- actual 49.8-49.3, Obama by .5
Iowa 51.1-47.9 Obama +3.2 --- actual 52.1-46.5, Obama +5.6. Off by 75%.
Nebraska CD-2 51.8-47.5 ROMNEY +4.3 --- actual 57.0-43.0 ROMNEY +14. Off by 300%.
New Hampshire 51.4-47.9 Obama +3.5 --- actual 52.0-46.7 Obama +5.3. Off by 50%.
North Carolina 50.6-48.9 Romney +1.7 --- actual 50.6-48.4 Romney +1.2. Off by 33%.
Virginia 50.7-48.7 Obama +2.0 --- actual 50.8-47.8 Obama +3. Off by 50%.
 
10 million less voters this time around compared to 2008
 
Denny Crane said:
Let's see. Silver reads the polls then waves his hands and does his magic and comes up with predictions. No matter how Florida goes, his electoral vote prediction is less accurate than many pundits who hit the number on the head (not me, though!).

Where it gets real interesting is where he projects vote share in the states.

Colorado 50.8-48.3, Obama +2.5 --- actual 50.7-47.0, Obama +3.7. Seems like he was off by 50%.
Florida 49.8-49.8, Tie --- actual 49.8-49.3, Obama by .5
Iowa 51.1-47.9 Obama +3.2 --- actual 52.1-46.5, Obama +5.6. Off by 75%.
Nebraska CD-2 51.8-47.5 ROMNEY +4.3 --- actual 57.0-43.0 ROMNEY +14. Off by 300%.
New Hampshire 51.4-47.9 Obama +3.5 --- actual 52.0-46.7 Obama +5.3. Off by 50%.
North Carolina 50.6-48.9 Romney +1.7 --- actual 50.6-48.4 Romney +1.2. Off by 33%.
Virginia 50.7-48.7 Obama +2.0 --- actual 50.8-47.8 Obama +3. Off by 50%.
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nate has written that his formula does factor in a small chance that the polls were misforecasting turnout demographics, which is why he underestimated obama numbers (slightly really) along with almost everyone else. he just weighted that possibility much, much less than conservative-leaning pollsters like rasmussen who was pretty much worthless. rasmussen had the popular vote romney +1 on monday and tied on election morning. you could say he was off infinite percent : )
 
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I'm still waiting for the voting #'s to come in unskewed.
 
julius said:
I'm still waiting for the voting #'s to come in unskewed.
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:laugh: I actually fell for the idea that 2008 turnout was an outlier. Fuck, that's a painful hook I'm pulling out of my mouth.
 
Even if you remove the dead and incarcerated people in IL, Obama still won. ;)
 
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