Will Passing a "Signature Achievement" Help Democrats in the Polls?

[MikeDC]

Megan McArdle asks

With Obama's job approval ratings trending below 50%, and health care looking like it may settle into the 30's, Democrats are rallying moderates to health care reform with the following narrative: sure, passing this may be unpopular, but failing to pass it will be even more unpopular! The only problem is, Brendan Nyhan suggests that this isn't, like, true.

The obvious parallel is to the Iraq war. IIRC it was controversial, then suddenly more popular right after it started, and then became unpopular again as the true costs became evident.

With health care, the debate engenders a lot of unpopularity, but if it passes, polls will reflect momentary crowing by people hopping on the bandwagon and hoping for the best (or being too busy being in the fetal position to take part in polls) on the part of opponents. As the true costs become evident over time, the momentary popularity would fade and everyone will still think the health care system is messed up, except now only moreso.