Win total - Over / Under?

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Will we win more than 47 or less?

  • 46 or less

    Votes: 6 14.3%
  • 47 - 50

    Votes: 14 33.3%
  • 50 - 54

    Votes: 18 42.9%
  • 55+

    Votes: 4 9.5%

  • Total voters
    42
Except every single possible stat and metric showed that this team was worse on both offense and defense when ET was playing.
Thanks for sharing, I don’t dig deep into the numbers like that. Good to know. I usually watch how the team flows when certain players are on the court. Curious what those stats will look like when Simons is out there? He will definitely be learning on the fly. I’m excited for him to blossom, I just don’t think it’s going to be as soon as everybody thinks.
 
Where'd you get that from my post: "His TS% was around what he's been for his career"

wut?

you explicitly said you were talking about 3 point shooting. You then said he went from 42% to 37% in 3 point percentage in two years. The 42% was his high-water mark. And to be accurate he dropped from .397 to .375 over the last 2 seasons, a drop of .022. The year before, he dropped from .421 to .397, a drop of .024, bigger than the drop last season. That's not a two year trend-line, it's a 3 year trend-line. Expecting him to get back to his career average of 40% is realistic, though not certain. Expecting him to match his high-water mark doesn't seem very realistic.
 
Thanks for sharing, I don’t dig deep into the numbers like that. Good to know. I usually watch how the team flows when certain players are on the court. Curious what those stats will look like when Simons is out there? He will definitely be learning on the fly. I’m excited for him to blossom, I just don’t think it’s going to be as soon as everybody thinks.
Simons is getting MVP this year, that's what I'm hearing.
 
If used with the right combination of players he will be fun to watch that’s for sure.
 
But what was the basis therefor?

Last year, there wasn't anything that occurred in the off season to cause any reason to legitimately think the team would be any worse than the year before. That can not be said this year.

The last time we had this drastic of a change in personnel, the team ended up 10 games worse than the prior season, and that was only because CJ was the league's MIP.

I'd be absolutely shocked if this squad won 53+ again this season, and I'd be willing to put something on it.

Yeah but you are equating Lamucus, Matthews, Batum, Rolo, To Aminu, Harkless, Meyers, and Turner...… I will let that sink in a minute.....and then say we replaced said 4 players with the ones we just lost. The one constant in those 2 years is that we had Dame, CJ came the next year and we got better. At the time Dame was probably our third best player before we lost those players. In the playoffs last year Hood already proved he was better then Harkless and Turner, and Collins proved he was better then Aminu. Kanter and Whiteside are probably a wash with the edge to Whiteside.
The west got tougher this year due to the rearrangement of Key players and I do not think that any team will be a clear front runner. I do not think we will make 53 games this year because of that reason, not because we lost Meyers
 
If used with the right combination of players he will be fun to watch that’s for sure.
I kind of think Simmons is gonna be a second unit barn burner. At least i hope so. All he has to to is hold down the fort and keep pace while Dame and/or CJ get some rest. But on certain games against certain teams he will indeed matchup well and it is the coaches job to see that and use him more under those conditions and get the minutes down for Dame.
 
I kind of think Simmons is gonna be a second unit barn burner. At least i hope so. All he has to to is hold down the fort and keep pace while Dame and/or CJ get some rest. But on certain games against certain teams he will indeed matchup well and it is the coaches job to see that and use him more under those conditions and get the minutes down for Dame.

It's Simons, not Simmons. Just sayin'.
 
https://www.nba.com/blazers/forwardcenter/power-rankings-trail-blazers-baseline-after-busy-offseason

POWER RANKINGS » THE TRAIL BLAZERS' BASELINE AFTER A BUSY OFFSEASON
power_1905_080719.jpg
 
https://www.si.com/nba/2019/08/09/n...0-season-raptors-jazz-blazers-hawks-grizzlies

Portland Trail Blazers – (Bet The) Over 46.5 Wins

The West’s improvement from 2018-19 is obvious, but less than 47 wins would mark a major disappointment in Portland. The deeper conversation surrounding the Blazers is their postseason upside; Portland is still built to thrive in the regular season. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are among the most durable guards in the NBA, and their core remains comparably skilled compared to last year’s despite some significant overturn. Nassir Little is a sneaky pick for All-Rookie honors, and Anfernee Simons’ expectations continue to rise. Can Terry Stotts coax enough effort and unselfishness from Hassan Whiteside? A return to form would pay huge dividends.

Portland dominated at home last year with a 32–9 clip, finishing 28–13 the year prior. The Blazers feast at the Moda Center similarly to the Nuggets at altitude. Their dynamic duo is reliable and their roster is deep with rotation talents. Expect them to flirt with 50 wins again this season.
 
Did this dude say Nassir could be on an All-NBA team? What the hell? Did he not watch summer league. Maybe ALL G-League team.
 
Did this dude say Nassir could be on an All-NBA team? What the hell? Did he not watch summer league. Maybe ALL G-League team.


All-rookie team. How many levels does that go down? Is there an Honorable Mention segment?
 
All-rookie team. How many levels does that go down? Is there an Honorable Mention segment?
He will be lucky to play as much as Swanigan did HIS rookie season.
 
I said 55+

Who else did? Who is the ovetly optimistic ones this year?!

Me and IDGAF. I am ready for a RIP CITY on they ass season.

I would be the third. If Whiteside comes through, we are gonna kick some serious ass....

EDIT: No. Whiteside IS going to come through, and we will kick some serious ass....
 
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Man 55 wins would be very impressive in the west just as our record was last year. The conference is brutal and the east is better.
 
Interesting....

https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/...l-blazers-it-just-likes-money-a-lot-more.html

Canzano: Las Vegas doesn’t hate the Trail Blazers... it just likes money a lot more
If not for Twitter this morning this might be the dumbest thing I've read so far today.

I'm pretty sure that only 1 season in the past 7 seasons have the Blazers finished under their Vegas win totals. I can almost guarantee that hardly anyone would bet on the under during that time because hardly anyone would risk money on a low win projection that way.

So Vegas is indeed undervaluing the Blazers because they are losing money each time they go over. I get that this year they are predicting a regression but the article is stupid. Using one game out of 98 last year doesn't prove a point either.
 
If not for Twitter this morning this might be the dumbest thing I've read so far today.

I'm pretty sure that only 1 season in the past 7 seasons have the Blazers finished under their Vegas win totals. I can almost guarantee that hardly anyone would bet on the under during that time because hardly anyone would risk money on a low win projection that way.

So Vegas is indeed undervaluing the Blazers because they are losing money each time they go over. I get that this year they are predicting a regression but the article is stupid. Using one game out of 98 last year doesn't prove a point either.

John Canzano is my hero.
 
We replaced Nurk (injury) with Whiteside--lateral move (maybe? I see it as a downgrade, but who knows?)

Whiteside is the move that concerns me the most as it is the one most essential to the Blazers success until Nurk returns. From a basketball standpoint, I think it's close to a wash, but I do think we're going to miss Nurk's ability to create his own shot. It's from a personality/stability point of view that I'm most concerned. I think Dame is going to be challenged bringing Whiteside into the fold. That said, once Nurk returns, having two centers as talented as these guys are has the potential to be a real difference-maker going into the playoffs.


We replaced Meyers with Pau--negligible impact, 'cause it was Meyers

I think Pau is going to be a much bigger impact than you're giving him credit for. As player, you're going to get 10-15 solid minutes from him. The dude knows how to play in a way that Meyers can only dream of. His mentorship has the potential to really help Zach Collins.

We replaced Chief by promoting Collins--might be an improvement, who knows?

This will be a critical point for the Blazers and you're right to highlight it. I don't think that there's any doubt that Zach is more talented than Chief, but he's young and he has a hard time avoiding fouls. He's going to have to grow into his new starting role. It's his third year, so I think that there's reason for optimism.

We replaced Curry('s shooting) with Tolliver's--looks like a downgrade to me

I think that this is a kind of weird way of looking at three point shooting for the Blazers. While there's no doubt that Curry has the higher shooting percentage over Tolliver, he didn't get that many attempts for it to be a big issue in the overall scheme of things. I don't think that there's much doubt that Hill, Bazemore, Tolliver and Ant collectively add improved 3 point shooting for the team.

We replaced Turner with Hezonja--lateral move?

Hopefully this is no worse than a lateral move. Hezonja has more of an offensive repertoire than Turner, but he hasn't proved himself yet as a consistent player. ET was a turnover machine at times and a bricklayer from 3, but he did run the second unit well and was great for the team chemistry. The jury is definitely out on this one.

We replaced Harkless with Bazemore--lateral move?

I'm more inclined to think that Hood will get the starting 3 nod just because of familiarity, but it could be Bazemore. Hood definitely has more offensive game than Moe, but Moe (when healthy) was probably a better defender. Moe wasn't always healthy though. I'd say Bazemore is probably on Moe's level defensively because of wingspan. Overall, I think if you look at the combined attributes of Hood/Bazemore vs Harkless/Layman, this year's SF rotation is better.


1. Turner and Bazemore/Hood was the lateral move
2. Harkless got replaced with Hood/Bazemore
3. Whiteside replaces Kanter I see it as an upgrade when Nurk gets back he will provide defense with the second team.
4. While Curry is better then Tolliver, Tolliver is going to get more minutes then Curry because he will back up Zach and Curry is not going to come off the bench before Hood/Ant and paying 6 million more for 2% better 3pt shooting I think I will take Tolliver
5. Hezonja replaces no one. He was filler at the end of the day if he works out we can jump up and down and go rub one out in the bathroom if not then we can drop him when we get next years draft pick
6. Layman when it is all said and done I think could come back and possibly haunt us. I think he was a cap casualty and we are betting that Trent jr. will take his place
7. I think you got Pau/Meyers Aminu/Zach spot on though. Pau coming in and working with Collins, Whiteside, Skal and even Nurk when he gets back could be the best pick up of the off season.
 
OK, I have a lunch wager with BLAZER PROPHET. If the Blazers win 49 or more games, I win. Less than 49 wins, he wins.

I think I did OK. We shall see.
 
OK, I have a lunch wager with BLAZER PROPHET. If the Blazers win 49 or more games, I win. Less than 49 wins, he wins.

I think I did OK. We shall see.
Why 49? That's more than any sportsbook or prediction model.
 

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