With the 23rd pick in the 2015 draft...

[Rastapopoulos]

Let's assume we don't trade up or trade out. What should be the best strategy with the 23rd pick? First thing to do would be to look at recent drafts and see if there's any pattern to good players taken at or after #23:

2008
23 Utah Kosta Koufos - C
24 Seattle Serge Ibaka - PF
25 Houston Nicolas Batum - SF
26 San Antonio George Hill - PG
31 Minnedota Nikola Pekovic Serbia - C
34 Minnesota Mario Chalmers Kanses - PG
35 Clippers DeAndre Jordan Texas A&M - C
36 Portland Omer Asik Turkey - C
37 Milwaukee Luc Richard Mbah a Moute UCLA - SF
39 Chicago Sonny Weems Arkansas - SG
44 Utah Ante Tomic Coratia - C
45 San Antonio Goran Dragic Slovenia - PG
56 Seattle Sasha Kaun Kansas - C
60 Boston Semih Erden Turkey - C

Wow: that was actually a pretty stacked draft after #23! And that isn't even all the players still in the NBA, because I omitted some (like Donte Green) who I think are totally meh.

2009
23. Kings Omri Casspi SF
26. Bulls Taj Gibson PF
27. Grizzlies DeMarre Carroll PF
28. Timberwolves Wayne Ellington SG
29. Lakers Toney Douglas SG
31. Kings Jeff Pendergraph PF
33. Trail Blazers Dante Cunningham PF
34. Nuggets Sergio Llull PG
37. Spurs DeJuan Blair PF
39. Pistons Jonas Jerebko SF
41. Bucks Jodie Meeks SG
42. Lakers Patrick Beverley PG
43. Heat Marcus Thornton SG
44. Pistons Chase Budinger SG
45. Timberwolves Nick Calathes PG
46. Cavaliers Danny Green SF
52. Pacers A.J. Price PG
53. Spurs Nando De Colo PG
55. Trail Blazers Patrick Mills PG

Fewer starters in this one, but just as many rotation players. I included Llull even though he may never come to the NBA, because he's a legit star in Europe. (I don't actually like his game much - he's sort of the White Westbrook.)

2010
23 Minnesota Timberwolves Trevor Booker F, 6-7, 240 Clemson
26 Oklahoma City Thunder Quincy Pondexter F, 6-6, 225 Washington
27 New Jersey Nets Jordan Crawford (Traded to Atlanta) G, 6-4, 195 Xavier
28 Memphis Grizzlies Greivis Vasquez G, 6-6, 210 Maryland
33 Sacramento Kings Hassan Whiteside C, 7-0, 235 Marshall
34 Portland Trail Blazers Armon Johnson G, 6-3, 195 Nevada
39 New York Knicks Landry Fields F, 6-7, 210 Stanford
40 Indiana Pacers Lance Stephenson G, 6-5, 225 Cincinnati
55 Utah Jazz Jeremy Evans F, 6-9, 190 Western Kentucky

Wow. This SUCKED. And I left Armon in there just for old time's sake. Let's hope it's not like THAT.

2011
23. Rockets Nikola Mirotic SF
24. Thunder Reggie Jackson PG
28. Bulls Norris Cole PG
29. Spurs Cory Joseph PG
30. Bulls Jimmy Butler SF
31. Heat Bojan Bogdanovic SF
33. Pistons Kyle Singler SF
34. Wizards Shelvin Mack PG
38. Rockets Chandler Parsons SF
46. Lakers Andrew Goudelock SG
55. Celtics E'Twaun Moore SG
60. Kings Isaiah Thomas PG

Better. Don't get me started on Mirotic. But interestingly, other than him, the best ones are all Americans. (I included Goudelock because he too has become a star in Europe. Word is he'll get $2M from Fenerbahce. He's very CJ-ish.)

2012
26. Pacers Miles Plumlee PF
28. Thunder Perry Jones PF
30. Warriors Festus Ezeli C
34. Cavaliers Jae Crowder SF
35. Warriors Draymond Green SF
39. Pistons Khris Middleton SF
40. Trail Blazers Will Barton SG
48. Knicks Kostas Papanikolaou SF
58. Timberwolves Robbie Hummel SF
60. Lakers Robert Sacre C

Some players here who are about to get very rich.

2013
23. Pacers Solomon Hill SF
24. Knicks Tim Hardaway Jr. SG
25. Clippers Reggie Bullock SG
26. Timberwolves Andre Roberson SF
27. Nuggets Rudy Gobert C
31. Cavaliers Allen Crabbe SG
32. Thunder Alex Abrines SG
34. Rockets Isaiah Canaan PG
35. 76ers Glen Rice Jr. SF
44. Mavericks Mike Muscala PF
45. Trail Blazers Marko Todorovic SF
48. Lakers Ryan Kelly PF
55. Grizzlies Joffrey Lauvergne PF

Too soon to tell at this point. I've included Abrines and Todorovic because they are "rising stars" in Europe (the latter voted the best center in the ACB, ahead of guys like Ante Tomic and Willy Hernangomez). So this tilts international, with Gobert of course the pick of the bunch.

2014
23. Jazz Rodney Hood SG
24. Hornets Shabazz Napier PG
25. Rockets Clint Capela PF
27. Suns Bogdan Bogdanovic SG
30. Spurs Kyle Anderson PF
32. 76ers K.J. McDaniels SF
38. Pistons Spencer Dinwiddie PG
43. Hawks Walter Tavares C

Who knows with this lot? There could be players I've deleted who will bust out next year or in a couple of years. So you can't really tell. Probably McDaniels is the pick of the weak litter at the moment. Although I like Walter Tavares, who is HUGE (but slow) and had a big year in Europe.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think this draft is deep enough that at 23 we draft an American unless we know that the international players is coming over next year. We need the player now.

What I am leery of is taking a 6'8" tweener or a one dimensional player.
If you can get a Gobert you do it. 23 is a pretty good spot for a Euro center......if he comes over now.

I am still holding out hope for Wright, but I doubt he lasts that long.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Okay, now let's look for patterns.

Big name college player, deemed too slow or too small:
Mario Chalmers ('08, 34)
DeJuan Blair ('09, 37)
Nick Calathes ('09, 45)
Danny Green ('09, 46)
Kyle Singler ('11, 33)
Chandler Parsons ('11, 38)
Isaiah Thomas ('11, 60)
Draymond Green ('12, 35)
Kyle Anderson ('14, 30)

These are the guys that people in Madison Square Garden would be chanting for. But for every one of these there's the fear of the next Shelden Williams.

Misc. American college players:
Kosta Koufos ('08, 23) Too slow?
Taj Gibson ('09, 26) Too old? USC not that good?
Patrick Beverley ('09, 42) A SG in a PG's body?
Trevor Booker ('10, 23) Too short for PF?
Reggie Jackson ('11, 24) Just a stacked year for PGs?
Jimmy Butler ('11, 30) You got me. Too slow? Not athletic enough?
Jae Crowder ('12, 34) Classic tweener
Khris Middleton ('12, 39) Again, no ideas.
Spencer Dinwiddie ('14, 38) Injury?

Former blue-chippers who slid because of character concerns:
DeAndre Jordan ('08, 35)
Hassan Whiteside ('10, 33) Marshall
Lance Stephenson ('10, 40)

Not many of those, but is Robert Upshaw this year's model?

Small school heroes:
George Hill ('08, 26) IUPUI (!)
Norris Cole ('11, 28) Cleveland State
Andrew Goudelock ('11, 46) College of Charleston
Isaiah Canaan ('13, 34) Murray State
Mike Muscala ('13, 44) Bucknell

Slim pickins. Clearly the lesson here is go with the guy from the big name program rather than the star from the tiny school. Sorry Lillard.

International:
Serge Ibaka ('08, 24)
Nic Batum ('08, 25)
Nicola Pekovic ('08, 31)
Omer Asik ('08, 36)
Goran Dragic ('08, 45)
Nicola Mirotic ('11, 23)
Bojan Bogdanovic ('11, 31)
Rudy Gobert ('13, 27)

Some really good players here. There are also international players who have yet to come over, but who could be good, like Tomic, Llull, Todorovic, Tavares, Abrines and the OTHER Bogdanovic.

What moral(s) can we draw here?
1. Avoid small school stars. Unlikely to be great.
2. Going international is a safe bet, if only because you may never need to pay them and can find out if they're busts before you sink money into them.
3. At this point go for players with big hearts and good characters, tweenerism be damned.

All Star 23-and-after team:

Cs: Gobert, Jordan, Whiteside, Pekovic, Koufos, Asik
(Surprisingly there are good Cs to be had this low, just don't expect them to be good at BOTH O and D)
PF: Ibaka, Draymond Green, Nicola Mirotic, Taj Gibson, Trevor Booker
SF: Batum, Chandler Parsons, Demarre Carroll, Jae Crowder
SG: Butler, Middleton, Danny Green
PG: George Hill, Goran Dragic, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Thomas, Patrick Beverley

 

[Rastapopoulos]

We need the player now.

If we need the player now and we're going to be good, then we sign a veteran. Rookies just don't tend to contribute that much in their first years, except the absolute top players.
If we need the player now because we're going to suck, then we're shit out of luck, because we're picking at 23.

 

[Blazinaway]

who we draft at 23 IMO depends on whether LMA stays or is gone, if he is gone I say take a chance on Upshaw IF our psych gal gives her OK

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What I am leery of is taking a 6'8" tweener

Like Draymond Green? (In stacked shoes)

or a one dimensional player.

Like Rudy Gobert? Or Hassan Whiteside? Or Omer Asik?

If you can get a Gobert you do it. 23 is a pretty good spot for a Euro center......if he comes over now.

Don't you remember how much of a bust Gobert looked his first year?

I am still holding out hope for Wright, but I doubt he lasts that long.

I have a real weakness for big PGs and every year I fall in love with one or two. This is probably the Alvin Williams effect. (Cookie Belcher was a big crush back in the day, but that was probably the AWESOME name.) But they just. don't. pan. out.

Here are the big PGs that I found in the above list:
Reggie Jackson
Spencer Dinwiddie

That's it. Don't make me go back and find all the ones that didn't (like Kyle Weaver, another crush). MAYBE Wright's good. Maybe he's Will Barton II. Fun for a fling but not a long-term relationship.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

who we draft at 23 IMO depends on whether LMA stays or is gone, if he is gone I say take a chance on Upshaw IF our psych gal gives her OK

Unfortunately, the draft comes before free agency, so we really can't base our pick on LA's decision.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I have a real weakness for big PGs and every year I fall in love with one or two. This is probably the Alvin Williams effect. (Cookie Belcher was a big crush back in the day, but that was probably the AWESOME name.) But they just. don't. pan. out.

Here are the big PGs that I found in the above list:
Reggie Jackson
Spencer Dinwiddie

That's it. Don't make me go back and find all the ones that didn't (like Kyle Weaver, another crush). MAYBE Wright's good. Maybe he's Will Barton II. Fun for a fling but not a long-term relationship.

So, you're no longer interested in George Lucas de Paula then?

 

[Scalma]

Unfortunately, the draft comes before free agency, so we really can't base our pick on LA's decision.

Olshey said they should have a good idea what the plan is by draft night and that that's when the roster building begins, not July 1st.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Olshey said they should have a good idea what the plan is by draft night and that that's when the roster building begins, not July 1st.

Having a plan and knowing LA's decision are two different things.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

What dropped Gobert was his lateral movement. It was described as being in Slavko Vranes territory.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Like Rudy Gobert? Or Hassan Whiteside? Or Omer Asik?


I have a real weakness for big PGs and every year I fall in love with one or two. This is probably the Alvin Williams effect. (Cookie Belcher was a big crush back in the day, but that was probably the AWESOME name.) But they just. don't. pan. out.

Here are the big PGs that I found in the above list:
Reggie Jackson
Spencer Dinwiddie

That's it. Don't make me go back and find all the ones that didn't (like Kyle Weaver, another crush). MAYBE Wright's good. Maybe he's Will Barton II. Fun for a fling but not a long-term relationship.

When I said one dimensional I was not thinking centers. I was thinking defensive minded SF's with no shot. Or tall SF with a great 3 point stroke but no in between game and average at best on D. However I would not consider Gobert or Whiteside one dimensional at all.

As for Delon Wright......I have seen enough to make me think he is a true PG. Will Baron was not. Unfortunately I doubt I am alone on that and he won't fall to us. Unless there is a run on Euros right before our pick............

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

You can find gems outside the lotto.

You have more luck with Euro's.

Jokic last year and this year it'll be Hernangomez.

 

[Pinwheel1]

What dropped Gobert was his lateral movement. It was described as being in Slavko Vranes territory.

Hard to believe after watching that video that was linked on this board before the draft, of him running the break like a guard.
I understand that does not represent lateral movement, but it sure showed he was agile. Especially for his size.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

They said he ran the court well but in the half-court is where he had trouble.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I hope we draft one of the following:

Norman Powell
Delon Wright
Jerian Grant
RJ Hunter
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Robert Upshaw
Danilo Fuzaro

 

[ThugginPaulyGAllen]

Robert Upshaw.

Risk well worth it imo

 

[tester551]

I hope we draft one of the following:

Norman Powell
Delon Wright
Jerian Grant
RJ Hunter
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Robert Upshaw
Danilo Fuzaro

These three should be the targets.

 

[illmatic99]

Terrific breakdown, Rasta. You might be onto something here, and there's sufficient sample size to find trends

 

[Rastapopoulos]

So, you're no longer interested in George Lucas de Paula then?

I told ya, I gots a weakness. If I think of him simply as "international" then that trumps "big PG". Plus it helps that he's so young, so you can say he's a wild card.

See? I can talk myself into anything.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What dropped Gobert was his lateral movement. It was described as being in Slavko Vranes territory.

I heard that he was nursing an injury in the testing period, too.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Okay, now I'm going to group players who are likely/possibly available at our pick this year according to the categories I used before, along with the reasons they might be available so low in the first round)

Big name college player, deemed too slow or too small:
Tyus Jones, PG, 6'2" (step slow, bit scrawny)
Kevon Looney, PF, 6'9" (very raw, poor "feel for the game"?)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson , SF, 6'7" (no "O")
Jerian Grant, PG, 6'5" (can he shoot? An oldish senior)
Delon Wright, PG, 6'6" (ditto, only more so)
Montrezl Harrell, PF, 6'8" (actually shorter, no O, poor "feel"?)
Andrew Harrison, PG, 6'6" (the dreaded big PG)
Norman Powell, SG, 6'4" (undersized and still raw as a senior, but super athletic and a great defender. Tony Allen type?)
J.P. Tokoto, SG, 6'6" (a shooting guard who can't shoot? anemic stats but super athlete)

Misc. American college players:
Justin Anderson, SF, 6'6" (a bit short?) Virginia
Christian Wood, PF, 6'11" UNLV
Rashad Vaughn, SG, 6'5" (total gunner? small?) UNLV
Jarell Martin, PF, 6'9" LSU
Jordan Mickey PF/C, 6'8" (very undersized, but with humungous arms - blocks everything) LSU
Rakeem Christmas, PF/C, 6'10" (old senior, late bloomer?) Syracuse (always a red flag)
Jonathan Holmes, SF/PF, 6'9" (classic tweener) Texas

Former blue-chippers who slid because of character concerns:
Robert Upshaw, C, 7' with massive wingspan (incorrigible stoner?)

Small school heroes:
R.J. Hunter, SG, 6'6" (slow and scrawny?) Georgia State
Richaun Holmes, PF, 6'10" (narrow shoulders, but PER of over 30) Bowling Green

International:
Alexsandar Vesenkov, SF/PF, 6'8" (too small, too slow? Star as a teenager in Greek league)
Nikola Milutinov, C, 7' (skinny, not much O, but good on D, plays in Adriatic League)
Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, 6'11" (a bit slow and heavy-footed but big and strong)
Moussa Diagne, C, 6'10 (playing sparingly in Spain - the next Biyombo? late starter but super athletic with massive wingspan)
George Lucas de Paula, PG, 6'6" (dreaded big PG. can he shoot? YOUNG, but weak league [Brazil])
Timothe Luwawu, SG/SF, 6'7" (skinny, plays in France second division. Has been compared with Giannis because of size, skills but also weak competition)
Guillermo "Willy" Hernangomez, C, 6'11 (playing pretty well in ACB, but a bit lumbering)
Luka Mitrovic, PF, 6'9" (helped Red Star Belgrade win the championship in their league)
Nedim Buza, SF, 6'8" (you got me)
Alpha Kaba, PF/C, 6'10" (skinny, young and raw. Playing in France)
Cedi Osman, SF, 6'8" (average stats but on one of the best teams in Europe Andalou Efes with a legendary coach, and only just 20. Also was MVP of Euro U-20 championship. The Turkish Brent Barry (TM))
Danilo Fuzaro, PG/SG, 6'4" (weak league, may be a tweener, already 21)
Arturas Gudaitis, C, 6'10" (playing for top Lithuanian team Zalgiris - the one Ty Lawson stunk for, so has faced Euroleague competition)

I'm including more internationals just because NOBODY knows where they'll get drafted and there's always one taken whom nobody expects. Plus it's really hard to compare stats, particularly for young players who tend not to get played in Europe.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

If I had to guess, I think Olshey will go international just to keep the salary cap as open as possible. Unless the cap hold is the same even if they're playing abroad?
I would be very surprised if we tried to fill a positional need with the 23rd pick. You can do that high in the draft, but at 23 you take a flyer on talent.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If I had to guess, I think Olshey will go international just to keep the salary cap as open as possible. Unless the cap hold is the same even if they're playing abroad?
I would be very surprised if we tried to fill a positional need with the 23rd pick. You can do that high in the draft, but at 23 you take a flyer on talent.

The cap hold is deferred only if the player is under contract in another league for the coming year.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

All right, my latest crush is Timothe Luwawu. All it took was the Antetokounmpo comparison (or Bruno Caboclo):





The French League tends to have the best athletes in Europe, FWIW. If you want to jump on the bandwagon with me, this is the (surprisingly professional) YouTube channel of his team, the Antibes Sharks.

I DEMAND a George Lucas de Paula vs. Timoth Luwawu (-Cabarrot) workout!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

All right, my latest crush is Timothe Luwawu. All it took was the Antetokounmpo comparison:

'Bout time you got there.

Another guy that fits that 3-D mold, but might have a bit more upside, is a young Frenchie, Timothe Luwawu. If Anderson is a Wes-clone, is this guy a Batum clone?

 

[Pinwheel1]

If I had to guess, I think Olshey will go international just to keep the salary cap as open as possible. Unless the cap hold is the same even if they're playing abroad?
I would be very surprised if we tried to fill a positional need with the 23rd pick. You can do that high in the draft, but at 23 you take a flyer on talent.

It makes sense that he goes international for salary cap purposes UNLESS he feels good about the pick. If he can fill a position of need I think he does it.

I do disagree with your description above on Delon Wright though: PG, 6'6" (can he shoot? An oldish senior)
He can shoot just fine. When he needed to take over he usually did.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

If I had to guess, I think Olshey will go international just to keep the salary cap as open as possible. Unless the cap hold is the same even if they're playing abroad?
I would be very surprised if we tried to fill a positional need with the 23rd pick. You can do that high in the draft, but at 23 you take a flyer on talent.

I think Olshey is going to draft a player who can come in a contribute right away. I also think we could see him deal Crabbe+cash for a second rounder and pick up a euro stash player.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think Olshey is going to draft a player who can come in a contribute right away. I also think we could see him deal Crabbe+cash for a second rounder and pick up a euro stash player.

I really hope we don't turn a player we traded two second round picks for into...one second round pick.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I think Olshey is going to draft a player who can come in a contribute right away. I also think we could see him deal Crabbe+cash for a second rounder and pick up a euro stash player.

I have to disagree. I think he'll draft on potential. Think about it: if a player is ready to contribute then why would they be available at #23? Maybe the player he takes WILL be able to contribute (perhaps because a good player drops because of other teams swinging for potential), but I don't think that will be the plan. Also remember: our coach is Stotts. He'll play Steve Blake 20 minutes rather than play, say, Tim Frazier 1 minute.