From The Athletic:
1. Orlando Magic – Chet Holmgren | 7-0 PF/C | Gonzaga | 20 years old
Biggest need: A star anywhere on the floor.
The big question for the Orlando Magic is do you go with Jabari Smith Jr., or do you go with Chet Holmgren? Right now, the money seems to be on Smith as the top pick, but it feels like anything but a sure bet. The Magic had a lot of success playing two bigs at a time this season — when those two were
Wendell Carter Jr.and
Mo Bamba. The Magic have Carter under contract on a sweetheart deal over the next four seasons, and Bamba is a restricted free agent this summer. There is significantly less pressure to re-sign Bamba with Holmgren in the mix, but you can also re-sign Bamba for a reasonable deal and still feel good about this three-man rotation for the bigs.
I’m not a huge Holmgren fan, but he’s a good shot blocker, and he can score efficiently. The second part is really the sell here if you’re going to take him with the first overall pick. He’s a guy who can knock down shots anywhere on the floor. He can play as a pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop big. He can handle the ball and be a bit of a playmaker for you, especially with creating his shot. And you have time to develop him because this team has big men — likely cost-effective big men too — who can contribute and be easily dealt if Holmgren is so good right away that you don’t need all three of them. Smith probably ends up being the pick, but the Magic can surprise anybody on draft night.
Do you expect a trade here? No, it would be pretty shocking if Orlando moved on from the top pick.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 PF/C | Auburn | 19 years old
Biggest need: A star big man, a star wing to put next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
If Smith falls to the Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 2, that would be the best-case scenario for OKC. The Thunder probably love the idea of Holmgren with this collection of young, developing talent, but the idea of bringing in enough food and protein powder to bulk up Holmgren and
Aleksej Pokusevski seems like a logistical nightmare. As for Smith here, I think this is a better pick for making Gilgeous-Alexander comfortable with the immediate
and long-term future. It can’t feel good being non-competitive and not playing the second half of every season. Smith can play right away, and he provides a great big man option for SGA to run some two-man game against the opponent.
Smith has a smooth jumper. He can be a little robotic getting to it, but that thing is pretty pure. He’s a terror in transition because of that trailing 3-point shot. He’s going to be a brilliant option in the pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop with his level of shot making. He might float a little too much, and you’d probably like to get him moving toward the basket more, but he’s a reliable shooter. He might struggle with some foul trouble as a primary big, but his defense projects to be quite good. He’s going in one of the top two picks, so don’t expect him to fall at all past OKC.
Do you expect a trade here? Always expect a trade with the Thunder, but not for this pick. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to move into the top 10 with their other picks or players.
3. Houston Rockets – Paolo Banchero | 6-10 Forward | Duke | 19 years old
Biggest need: A star forward or playmaker to put next to Jalen Green.
Paolo Banchero is my favorite prospect in the draft, and the Houston Rockets ending up with him and Green in the past two lottery appearances is about as good as you could hope for in rebuilding this franchise. Rafael Stone has to go with Banchero if he falls to No. 3, and it looks like he will. His biggest weakness is not being a good outside shooter. The form mostly looks good, although he brings the ball down a little too much for no reason at times. His free-throw shooting is fine but not necessarily an indicator that he’s going to figure out being a consistent outside shooter. And defensively, he needs to really improve his effort. Stephen Silas getting Banchero and Green to both be passable defenders could take a lot of work.
However, Banchero’s potential is crazy because he’s a big forward who can attack defenders with quickness, size and touch. He blows by any big man you put in front of him. He’s far too strong for any wing defender you might try. He might be too strong for half the bigs you throw at him for one-on-one coverage. He’s going to need to figure out when and what is a good shot for him at the NBA level, but he has most of the skills to create those. He’s going to be able to set up teammates, especially if he figures out the jumper to open his game up. He’s a monster point forward and someone the Rockets need.
Do you expect a trade here? Always expect a trade with the Rockets, but not for this pick. They still have
Eric Gordon and
John Wall to move, but we’ll see if those come to fruition.
4. Sacramento Kings – Keegan Murray | 6-8 Forward | Iowa | 21 years old
Biggest need: Wing, forwards and a defensive big man.
This is where the draft gets very tricky. I think
Jaden Ivey is one of the best options in this draft, so him going here at No. 4 seems logical. Even with
De’Aaron Fox on the roster, it could work. This front office has taken
Tyrese Haliburton and
Davion Mitchell in the past two lottery appearances. Considering they moved on from Haliburton to acquire
Domantas Sabonis, grabbing Ivey here doesn’t seem out of the question. But it feels like Keegan Murray will be the guy. The Kings
are looking to move this pick if possible, as they feel keen on ending the shame of the longest playoff drought in league history. Team owner Vivek Ranadivé is reportedly a fan of Murray with this pick. Owner usually wins out on these things, which is how they ended up with
Nik Stauskas back in 2014.
They do need a player like Murray if they keep the pick. Sure, he’s about to turn 22 years old, but the Kings need as many adults in the room and on the court as possible. He exploded as an outside shooter this season, and his free-throw shooting is good enough to believe he can be league average or better from downtown. Murray can punish guys on the block, he can pop on pick action, and he can finish in the lane even though he’s not an amazing athlete. Most importantly for the Kings? He can do all that while also being a valuable defender. If a team doesn’t trade up to here to get Ivey, Murray feels like the guy to believe in here.
Do you expect a trade here? It sounds like the Kings are heavily shopping and receiving calls about this pick, but
our Shams Charania reports they are becoming increasingly comfortable with drafting at No. 4. We could see
San Antonio move up to grab Murray. We could see the
Knicks try to get all the way up here to grab Ivey. But there will be a steep price to do so.
5. Detroit Pistons – Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 Wing | Arizona | 20 years old
Biggest need: A star perimeter player to help Cade Cunningham.
This is where we get a little crazy. What if Troy Weaver isn’t crazy about Jaden Ivey as the guy next to Cade Cunningham? What if the Detroit Pistons are building something that more resembles what the
Toronto Raptors have up north with Cunningham as the primary initiator full time, and everybody around him is athletic, capable of shooting from the outside and has long arms? Molding those players to throw around Cunningham would be genius. That’s why I think Bennedict Mathurin could be a bit of a surprise pick here for the Pistons.
We know he can shoot the ball. He’s not much of a playmaker, but he can shoot off the catch, and he’s pretty smooth attacking closeouts. His sophomore season at Arizona saw him do a great job of making people pay whether they left him open for the jumper or closed out recklessly. He’s going to need to get better finishing against size in the paint, and you probably don’t want him as a playmaker with how … ambitious … he can be with some of his passing attempts. But he’s had a great pre-draft run, and ending up in the top five doesn’t seem out of question here. Between him and
Shaedon Sharpe, Mathurin might have the edge here in Detroit.
Do you expect a trade here? Can’t imagine the Pistons are in a position to make a move with this pick. Weaver is pretty committed to the draft process, and the Pistons aren’t quite in position to start thinking about the postseason.
6. Indiana Pacers – Shaedon Sharpe | 6-5 Wing | Kentucky | 19 years old
Biggest need: Everything but lead guard.
Until the Indiana Pacers are able to move
Malcolm Brogdon in a trade, they’ve got a pretty crowded lead guard situation with Brogdon, Haliburton and
T.J. McConnell. Maybe they get excited if Ivey falls to them here, but I’m guessing they go with a wing instead. Shaedon Sharpe out of (technically) Kentucky would be the best option here.
T.J. Warren has essentially missed two seasons, and he’ll be a free agent this summer. The Pacers need some guys who can play on the wings, knock down shots and defend. His wingspan almost reaches out to 7 feet, which is impressive for a guy measuring up around 6-foot-5 on a good day.
We haven’t seen him play basketball after sitting out last season after reclassifying out of the 2022 high school class. However, he can shoot the ball well at a high volume, he’s a potentially great scorer, and he’s a fantastic athlete. Tough to know what kind of defender to expect him to be at the NBA level after not seeing him at the college level, but the length and athleticism could be harnessed for something really good.
Do you expect a trade here? I do, but not with this pick.
Myles Turner’s and Brogdon’s futures in Indiana seem to be a very fluid concept. If the Pacers move them or this pick, expect a significant player back in return. They’d have to be swinging for the fences by moving this spot.
7. Portland Trail Blazers – Dyson Daniels | 6-7 PG/SG | G-League Ignite | 19 years old
Biggest need: Everything but a lead guard.
The idea for the Portland Trail Blazers is to add a lot of talent around
Damian Lillard and get back to some winning ways. After obliterating the NBA record for most 30-point losses in a season (15! Previous record: 10), they can only go up from here. The Blazers probably won’t grab a guy who can contribute right away at this point in the draft, but there’s potential for some of these wings available. However, Dyson Daniels appears to be a guy many believe doesn’t get past Portland if it keeps this pick.
Daniels is intriguing. He’s got long arms and a pretty smooth handle, and he’s extremely patient. He has to be patient because he’s also pretty slow. There are a lot of comparisons to
Kyle Anderson in how the two attack. Daniels has a nice in-between game, and while that jump shot has quite a bit more manual labor than you’d like, there’s potential with his balance on spotting up. What teams will like about him as he develops is he’s a competitive defender and a smart playmaker. If the Blazers keep this pick, he’s a great option to throw out there with both Lillard and
Anfernee Simons (restricted free agent).
Do you expect a trade here? I do think this pick is heavily on the board. Portland is still trying to land significant talent next to Lillard, and this is quite the carrot to dangle for teams looking to move into the top 10.
8. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers) – Ochai Agbaji | 6-6 wing | Kansas | 22 years old
Biggest need: Playmaking point guard, 3-and-D wings.
That’s right. In this scenario, Ivey falls once again. He’s not quite the playmaker the New Orleans Pelicans would be looking for next to
CJ McCollum. They have plenty of scoring options with McCollum,
Brandon Ingram and the return of
Zion Williamson. They need someone with a different approach than Ivey. Daniels is someone the Pelicans would target if he’s available, but he’s off the board in this scenario. There aren’t a lot of those tall, defensive-minded playmakers available in the draft here, so I think they reach a little by bringing in Ochai Agbaji from Kansas. He’s about 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan.
Agbaji is an older player as a senior, but that’s more what this Pelicans team needs. His junior and senior seasons at Kansas saw him really shoot the ball well from the outside. He hit just over 39 percent on 460 total attempts from deep. He’s a really good defender, and his ability to knock down 3-pointers and prevent them on the other end would have to stand out for the Pelicans. He’s not as tall as
Trey Murphy III, but they fit a similar profile and role. Can’t have enough of these wings who can defend and shoot the ball.
Mark Williams could also be an option here as a succession plan for
Jonas Valanciunas at some point.
Do you expect a trade here? The Pelicans are in an interesting position with a potential trade. They could probably use another veteran more than another guy to develop and work into the mix.
9. San Antonio Spurs – Jaden Ivey | 6-4 PG/SG | Purdue | 20 years old
Biggest need: A star at any position.
There’s always someone who falls further than we think they should, and in this scenario, it’s Ivey all the way down to ninth and the San Antonio Spurs. Yes, they already have
Dejounte Murray, but their All-Star guard is versatile enough to play next to any type of backcourt mate. So Ivey and Murray could potentially grab a lot of attention together in San Antonio. It’s probably more likely a team trades up to grab Ivey rather than him falling all this way, but I love the idea of him harnessing his powers and abilities on the Spurs like he’s a rogue X-Men character looking to save the world … or in this case, the backend of Gregg Popovich’s coaching career.
His outside shooting is still suspect. Big improvement from his freshman season at Purdue, but it’s not enough attempts to feel great about it. The form isn’t great, but it’s workable. He’s going to have to learn to shoot if he’s going to take advantage of his athleticism and attacking abilities off the dribble. His footwork is pretty excellent, and he’s a nightmare to stay in front of when he has a full head of steam — especially in transition. I don’t think you want him as the full-time lead guard, but that’s why he’d work perfect next to Murray. Defensively, the potential is there. He just needs to commit to it.
Do you expect a trade here? The Spurs
are believed to covet Murray from Iowa, but he’s not falling this far. They could use the ninth pick and any of their other first-rounders to try to move up to where Sacramento is to make sure Murray is added to their roster.
