Woo hoo, we will contend for the 8th seed

[PDXKass]

Portland is #24 at 1,905,700
San Antonio is #30 at 1,496,600

http://www.radio-media.com/markets/main.html

San Antonio metro population: 2,194,927 (24th)
Portland metro population: 2,289,800

so portland is still a little larger of a market.

back to the original point: in the past 30 years only one small market team has won a championship; the Spurs 4 times. large markets have won it the other 26 years.

 

[PDXKass]

Because Paul Allen is an idiot?

EDIT: It also seems you are talking just about the Blazers particular situation with its owed pick to Charlotte. That situation cannot be extrapolated to every other team in the league (and a helluva lot of teams do "tank" for draft position every year).

this being a Blazers forum; yes, i was talking about the Blazers.

if that's true about a "helluva lot of teams" tanking: 1. you'll have to provide a factual basis for that finding. 2. even if it were true, it would not constitute professionalism.

 

[magnifier661]

San Antonio metro population: 2,194,927 (24th)
Portland metro population: 2,289,800

so portland is still a little larger of a market.

back to the original point: in the past 30 years only one small market team has won a championship; the Spurs 4 times. large markets have won it the other 26 years.

BUt we should account for the teams that also made it to the finals. Portland, Utah, Indiana, Cleveland all made it there.

 

[PDXKass]

BUt we should account for the teams that also made it to the finals. Portland, Utah, Indiana, Cleveland all made it there.

it's still lopsided in favor of large markets making it into the finals.

 

[HailBlazers]

My only point was that McCollum or Robinson shouldn't factors in an analysis about this team making the leap from fringe playoff team to top 4 or 5 in the conference. I'm certain that they will play and could even be decent, but their addition to the roster won't significantly propel them beyond that 8th seed.

I think what PtldPlatypus is getting at is, that our Starting unit already has the potential to be a top 5 team in the conference, with the right supporting cast. If McCollum can bring some offensive fire to the second unit and Robinson some hard nose defense/rebounding, the impact could in-fact be significant. Our second unit was sorely lacking both scoring and defense last year.

I would say that it would be unreasonable NOT to expect McCollum to contribute to at least that degree this season.

Yup, we drafted a 4 year guy for a reason.

 

[Nikolokolus]

this being a Blazers forum; yes, i was talking about the Blazers.

if that's true about a "helluva lot of teams" tanking: 1. you'll have to provide a factual basis for that finding. 2. even if it were true, it would not constitute professionalism.

You must really enjoy pendantry. I'm not going to research teams' records for the last ten years just to "prove" a fairly commonly observed pattern of behavior. As for it being exemplary of professionalism, I never suggested it was. But it is reality.

 

[tlongII]

it's still lopsided in favor of large markets making it into the finals.

True, but that's to be expected. Larger markets = more money. More money = better players. Better players = more championships.

 

[magnifier661]

it's still lopsided in favor of large markets making it into the finals.

Oh and I forgot SAS, Phoenix and OKC.

Well since 1991-2013 = 22 years.

SAS = 5 years
PDX = 2 years
Utah = 2 years
OKC = 1 year
Phoenix = 1 year
Dallas = 1 year
Cleveland = 1 year
Pacers = 1 year

That's a total of 14 of the 22 total years

 

[PDXKass]

You must really enjoy pendantry. I'm not going to research teams' records for the last ten years just to "prove" a fairly commonly observed pattern of behavior. As for it being exemplary of professionalism, I never suggested it was. But it is reality.

i believe in details and, if you don't, that's not going to change me from doing so.

i agree that it's reality, but probably not quite as common as you're insinuating. my initial point is that it' simply not what professionals do -- gm's or players or coaches. you seemed to have an issue with that back on page 2.

 

[magnifier661]

i believe in details and, if you don't, that's not going to change me from doing so.

i agree that it's reality, but probably not quite as common as you're insinuating. my initial point is that it' simply not what professionals do -- gm's or players or coaches. you seemed to have an issue with that back on page 2.

Tanking is for losers. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise!

 

[Pinwheel1]

I am anxious to see TRob play. I assume he will in Vegas even if they have not announced it.
(I will be pissed if he does not)

One thing I want to see is his lateral quickness. I know he is an explosive leaper, but can he guard a SF? I would love to see him get more minutes and he won't only at PF.

I think a small back court with Lillard and CJ, along with a big front court with Leonard, LMA, and Robinson would be interesting to watch. With Leonard at the high post and LMA taking his man away from the basket, I am hoping Robinson can attack the basket against smaller players. I don't want him playing outside on O, but I think if he was in the game with Leonard and LMA his rebounding would compliment the other two.

It would be just another option for Terry to have in certain situations. But of course Trob would have to be able to guard the SF's for it to work. Can he do an adequate job?

 

[PDXKass]

Oh and I forgot SAS, Phoenix and OKC.

Well since 1991-2013 = 22 years.

SAS = 5 years
PDX = 2 years
Utah = 2 years
OKC = 1 year
Phoenix = 1 year
Dallas = 1 year
Cleveland = 1 year
Pacers = 1 year

That's a total of 14 of the 22 total years

what about the past 30 years of Stern's tenure that i mentioned before.

 

[magnifier661]

what about the past 30 years of Stern's tenure that i mentioned before.

You'd have to add 8 more years. 14 out of 30 is still not bad in odds. Almost half the time a small market team has made it to the finals.

 

[RR7]

I am anxious to see TRob play. I assume he will in Vegas even if they have not announced it.
(I will be pissed if he does not)

One thing I want to see is his lateral quickness. I know he is an explosive leaper, but can he guard a SF? I would love to see him get more minutes and he won't only at PF.

I think a small back court with Lillard and CJ, along with a big front court with Leonard, LMA, and Robinson would be interesting to watch. With Leonard at the high post and LMA taking his man away from the basket, I am hoping Robinson can attack the basket against smaller players. I don't want him playing outside on O, but I think if he was in the game with Leonard and LMA his rebounding would compliment the other two.

It would be just another option for Terry to have in certain situations. But of course Trob would have to be able to guard the SF's for it to work. Can he do an adequate job?

Yeah, I'm doubtful, but also hopeful that he'd be able to give us a few minutes at SF. I'd really like to find a bigger SF, to help on guys like Lebron, but also to be physical with KD. Batum's an over rated defender in general, but I think a lot of that comes from playing SF and defending SFs. He'd be an above average defender if he was covering smaller players, where his length is a big advantage. But it doesn't really do much good covering guys like KD, Lebron, Melo. And he's not physical enough to bother them with strength.

 

[Natebishop3]

still holding out hope that once Stern is gone, Silver might actually allow a smaller market team to win it.

Stern will never be gone. Dude is like Senator Palpatine pulling strings behind the curtain.

 

[magnifier661]

Yeah, I'm doubtful, but also hopeful that he'd be able to give us a few minutes at SF. I'd really like to find a bigger SF, to help on guys like Lebron, but also to be physical with KD. Batum's an over rated defender in general, but I think a lot of that comes from playing SF and defending SFs. He'd be an above average defender if he was covering smaller players, where his length is a big advantage. But it doesn't really do much good covering guys like KD, Lebron, Melo. And he's not physical enough to bother them with strength.

Not very many SFs do much good covering LBJ, KD and Melo though.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Yeah, I'm doubtful, but also hopeful that he'd be able to give us a few minutes at SF. I'd really like to find a bigger SF, to help on guys like Lebron, but also to be physical with KD. Batum's an over rated defender in general, but I think a lot of that comes from playing SF and defending SFs. He'd be an above average defender if he was covering smaller players, where his length is a big advantage. But it doesn't really do much good covering guys like KD, Lebron, Melo. And he's not physical enough to bother them with strength.

You just named three SF's Robinson could not guard either. Because no one can. But hopefully there are other scenarios where it would work.

 

[blue9]

And he's not physical enough to bother them with strength.

That's true, but he IS long enough to bother them with length. He rarely let's LBJ get to the rim, instead keeping him about 18' out shooting jumpers. Even if it's not physical D, it's still excellent D. It's a tactic, employed by the best coach int he league, that almost won the Spurs another championship.

 

[PDXKass]

You'd have to add 8 more years. 14 out of 30 is still not bad in odds. Almost half the time a small market team has made it to the finals.

actually, if would be 10 out of 22 years (or 10 out of 30). since we're counting teams who made it to the finals and lost, the Spurs would only count as one in that category.

 

[BBert]

I'm intrigued by the different methods used to determine that San Antonio is a "small market".

So, their population is greater than Portland, but their metro area is about the same, and within that area they have fewer tv sets.

However, the entire population of Oregon is less than 4 million. Texas is a big-ass state. The second most populated, at 26 million. Am I to believe that no one outside of San Antonio's metro area is a San Antonio fan? Cuz I don't believe it.

 

[magnifier661]

actually, if would be 10 out of 22 years (or 10 out of 30). since we're counting teams who made it to the finals and lost, the Spurs would only count as one in that category.

Well do we account for Miami as 1, chicago as 1, Lakers as 1, Boston as one?

 

[PDXKass]

Well do we account for Miami as 1, chicago as 1, Lakers as 1, Boston as one?

those are larger market teams though. there are two separate categories. we count the winners for each time they've won, and losers for each time they've lost (i.e. Spurs 4 wins, 1 loss).

 

[PDXKass]

I'm intrigued by the different methods used to determine that San Antonio is a "small market".

So, their population is greater than Portland, but their metro area is about the same, and within that area they have fewer tv sets.

However, the entire population of Oregon is less than 4 million. Texas is a big-ass state. The second most populated, at 26 million. Am I to believe that no one outside of San Antonio's metro area is a San Antonio fan? Cuz I don't believe it.

that was sort of my point. i think there's more to it than just strickly radio/tv market numbers.

 

[Blaze01]

Had Roy's career not been tragically cut short b\c of chronic injuries or Oden unable to play consistently b\c of injuries then I truly believe that POR would have been right up there competing with OKC and the other title contending teams....I would have liked to see those games\match-ups....

That team by the way was built through the draft....Roy, LA, Oden, Batum....The idea that POR can attract a franchise level talent as a free agent is just not a realistic one IMO, no matter how "slick" of a salesman Olshey thinks he is....

That Plan, build through the draft works...it was just blown up by injuries...bad luck...that happens...but it doesn't change the fact that the plan was a solid one IMO....

The problem that POR has now is that they have basically 1 of the "big 3" left....at an older age than the rest of the core...and here is the other thing, every since he has been here, POR mgmt has fucked around\slighted\disrespected LA....When Roy was here, it was all about him, face of the franchise...and if not him then all the attention was on Oden...LA was 3rd fiddle in that trio....both guys subsequently get hurt, but LA is still there, playing every day...Where is the respect? Then the team drafts Lillard last year and it is all about Damian...not about LA and all that he has done for the franchise, this being "his team", but all the praise on a rookie and talk of it being "Lillard's team"....I mention this b\c, don't fooled into thinking that LA doesn't see\hear that and that it doesn't irk him....b\c it does and he has alluded to it several times....

I think POR mgmt has undervalued him for awhile...and let's face the facts, he has toiled here now for SEVEN years, and for the last two years he been through a brutal rebuilding process (partly made worse by inept drafting the last few years), and now he sits here at the age of 28, 2 years away from free agency (and age 30) and it is very logical for him to start looking for greener pastures.....Just making the playoffs as a 7th\8th seed is not going to suddenly change his mind...he FLAT OUT stated that in his exit interviews....I think those of you who believe that just making the playoffs is enough to convince him to re-up\resign here are deluding yourselves....LA already went through 3 years of 1st round and out in the playoffs when Roy was here....Roy who was FAR better than any other player on this roster, just a flat out clutch player...

And a lot of you are discounting the fact that his trade value only diminshes...and rapidly....the closer he gets to the last year of his deal....timing is everything...knowing which way the winds are blowing and being able to pull the trigger on a deal...literally means the difference b\t maximizing value for LA or getting surprisingly little...That is why riding LA out this year in the hopes that a possible...but not a given...upward trend in wins, and really at this point, an essential playoff berth will suddenly have LA visualizing a championship possibility here in POR and thus wanting to resign THIS offseason...Even those of you hoping for this rosiest of possibilites, surely don't want to see him playing out his final year of his contract with nothing but platitudes that he will re-up here , do you?

The formula: Build through the draft works....POR is proof of that, in 77' and even with the Roy\LA\Oden trio....So those of you dismissing the idea of trading LA away for young players and picks are just failing to learn from history...this isn't Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago or Miami...Like San Antonio, for Portland to be a perennial contender they need the CORE of thier talent to come from drafting....the peripheral players can be added later...

Look, LA is my favorite player on POR right now, good player, really good guy...frustrating in his play at times, but a top level NBA talent...but the writing is on the wall....He wants to win...not just make the playoffs or win a series, but wants to be a title contender...and this team is not there, and not 1-2 years from being there....and that among other reasons is why IMO, the odds are very good that he will eventually leave...and unless POR mgmt is stubborn or deluded as some fans are...they need to be proactive and not reactive....I think they have a little time, probably by the trade deadline, to make a deal...but the longer they wait after that...the more power they give LA, the fewere potential bidders they will have and the less those teams will offer for him...Hasn't the last few years of big time players changing teams clearly illustrated that?

 

[Nikolokolus]

I like the cut of your jib Blaze01

 

[magnifier661]

Blaze01... I completely agree with your statement; and I agree that it will take more than just making the playoffs to keep him. But I have confidence that in two years, we will be more than a 1st round and out team. In the meantime, we make LaMonster a LaMonster and up his value in the process. If he does decide to leave; we should be fine anyway.

 

[Natebishop3]

Had Roy's career not been tragically cut short b\c of chronic injuries or Oden unable to play consistently b\c of injuries then I truly believe that POR would have been right up there competing with OKC and the other title contending teams....I would have liked to see those games\match-ups....

That team by the way was built through the draft....Roy, LA, Oden, Batum....The idea that POR can attract a franchise level talent as a free agent is just not a realistic one IMO, no matter how "slick" of a salesman Olshey thinks he is....

That Plan, build through the draft works...it was just blown up by injuries...bad luck...that happens...but it doesn't change the fact that the plan was a solid one IMO....

The problem that POR has now is that they have basically 1 of the "big 3" left....at an older age than the rest of the core...and here is the other thing, every since he has been here, POR mgmt has fucked around\slighted\disrespected LA....When Roy was here, it was all about him, face of the franchise...and if not him then all the attention was on Oden...LA was 3rd fiddle in that trio....both guys subsequently get hurt, but LA is still there, playing every day...Where is the respect? Then the team drafts Lillard last year and it is all about Damian...not about LA and all that he has done for the franchise, this being "his team", but all the praise on a rookie and talk of it being "Lillard's team"....I mention this b\c, don't fooled into thinking that LA doesn't see\hear that and that it doesn't irk him....b\c it does and he has alluded to it several times....

I think POR mgmt has undervalued him for awhile...and let's face the facts, he has toiled here now for SEVEN years, and for the last two years he been through a brutal rebuilding process (partly made worse by inept drafting the last few years), and now he sits here at the age of 28, 2 years away from free agency (and age 30) and it is very logical for him to start looking for greener pastures.....Just making the playoffs as a 7th\8th seed is not going to suddenly change his mind...he FLAT OUT stated that in his exit interviews....I think those of you who believe that just making the playoffs is enough to convince him to re-up\resign here are deluding yourselves....LA already went through 3 years of 1st round and out in the playoffs when Roy was here....Roy who was FAR better than any other player on this roster, just a flat out clutch player...

And a lot of you are discounting the fact that his trade value only diminshes...and rapidly....the closer he gets to the last year of his deal....timing is everything...knowing which way the winds are blowing and being able to pull the trigger on a deal...literally means the difference b\t maximizing value for LA or getting surprisingly little...That is why riding LA out this year in the hopes that a possible...but not a given...upward trend in wins, and really at this point, an essential playoff berth will suddenly have LA visualizing a championship possibility here in POR and thus wanting to resign THIS offseason...Even those of you hoping for this rosiest of possibilites, surely don't want to see him playing out his final year of his contract with nothing but platitudes that he will re-up here , do you?

The formula: Build through the draft works....POR is proof of that, in 77' and even with the Roy\LA\Oden trio....So those of you dismissing the idea of trading LA away for young players and picks are just failing to learn from history...this isn't Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago or Miami...Like San Antonio, for Portland to be a perennial contender they need the CORE of thier talent to come from drafting....the peripheral players can be added later...

Look, LA is my favorite player on POR right now, good player, really good guy...frustrating in his play at times, but a top level NBA talent...but the writing is on the wall....He wants to win...not just make the playoffs or win a series, but wants to be a title contender...and this team is not there, and not 1-2 years from being there....and that among other reasons is why IMO, the odds are very good that he will eventually leave...and unless POR mgmt is stubborn or deluded as some fans are...they need to be proactive and not reactive....I think they have a little time, probably by the trade deadline, to make a deal...but the longer they wait after that...the more power they give LA, the fewere potential bidders they will have and the less those teams will offer for him...Hasn't the last few years of big time players changing teams clearly illustrated that?

This is sound logic, but there are people on this board who are completely ignoring logic and are keeping the blinders on.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

and that among other reasons is why IMO, the odds are very good that he will eventually leave

Most, if not all, past Blazer upper-tier players have eventually moved on to capture their glory elsewhere. That's just the nature of the NBA business. Big Fish players in little ponds like Portland move to big ponds with other Big Fish/Little Pond players and win championships.

 

[magnifier661]

This is sound logic, but there are people on this board who are completely ignoring logic and are keeping the blinders on.

And what if we trade Aldridge for up and coming players and a draft pick? Our team won't stink and we will still live in mediocracy. Why not just go with the flow and hope that Aldridge, Lillard and Batum can grow together? There is this "Build in the draft" comment that still won't apply. The assets coming back with still put us in the middle of the pack. And who knows if Lillard actually will make that next leap? What if he's good enough to put us in the same place as Aldridge, but we don't have Aldridge to build around him?

You seem so sure that we will be stuck in mediocracy; yet our team was stuck in first round and outs for 8 years before we became a contender in the 90's.

 

[magnifier661]

Most, if not all, past Blazer upper-tier players have eventually moved on to capture their glory elsewhere. That's just the nature of the NBA business. Big Fish players in little ponds like Portland move to big ponds with other Big Fish/Little Pond players and win championships.

Which other players are you referring to? Drexler played 11 seasons with Portland before being traded. Sabas never left. Kersey was traded.