Worse draft pick?

[Denny Crane]

B.S. Mayo and Oden weren't anywhere near each other in terms of perceived "can't miss-ness."


Everyone's a Durant revisionist now. It's an empty claim unless you can point to an old post where you said that at the time. We'll just have to trust you that it wasn't edited after the fact.

I was on AIM with gambitnut (know him? Blazers poster...) on draft night suggesting Durant over Oden.


Ask and you shall receive:

http://sportstwo.com/threads/558-Sf-options

 

[Minstrel]

Ask and you shall receive:

http://sportstwo.com/threads/558-Sf-options

Nowhere therein do you suggest that Oden is likely to be "the next Bowie" (a giant bust). In fact, you barely say anything at all. Saying Portland "might want to consider" Durant is about as close to lacking a position as possible while still typing something...you double-hedge ("might" and "consider"). Everyone felt the Blazers "might" want to "consider" Durant. And the Blazers certainly did consider Durant.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://sportstwo.com/threads/98875-Oden-is-not-Sam-Bowie?p=1343018&viewfull=1#post1343018

http://sportstwo.com/threads/98810-...-MF-recovery?p=1340612&viewfull=1#post1340612

Nice try minstrel. I wasn't hedging, I was being polite. I knew blazers fans were in fan love with Bowie... I mean Oden.

I wish gambitnut were around to vouch for our AIM conversation.

 

[RR7]

http://sportstwo.com/threads/98875-Oden-is-not-Sam-Bowie?p=1343018&viewfull=1#post1343018

http://sportstwo.com/threads/98810-...-MF-recovery?p=1340612&viewfull=1#post1340612

Nice try minstrel. I wasn't hedging, I was being polite. I knew blazers fans were in fan love with Bowie... I mean Oden.

I wish gambitnut were around to vouch for our AIM conversation.

Again, that has nothing to do with draft night. Both of those, one just a link to a wojnawoski article, are from September. Sure, the comparisons were going to pop up AFTER he had mf and was out for the year.

 

[RoyToy]

You're not wrong to compare Oden to Bowie. Both were injured centers.

One had franchise impacting talent, and that was Greg Oden.

So yes, they're alike in that both of their bodies broke down. They're different in that Oden's potential was so much more than Bowie's.

Bill Walton's body also failed him.

 

[Denny Crane]

I wrote BEFORE THE Draft about those comparisons.

I've been suggesting LMA as C consistently since before the draft, when I saw him play live at the summer league games.

Even now, I like a front court of Batum, Wallace, and LMA.

 

[Minstrel]

Nice try minstrel. I wasn't hedging, I was being polite.

Sure you were. In any case, even if you believed Durant was the better choice (not that you have any evidence that you did), that still wouldn't be all that impressive. As I said before, it's not like Oden was considered a far better prospect, just a bit better. Randomly selecting one of two phenoms and then saying it validates your selection process when one phenom gets injured doesn't have much logical validity.

Bowie wasn't considered a phenom at the time of the draft. Oden was. So trying to compare the two (in terms of draft selection process, not results) is a little silly.

 

[RoyToy]

I wrote BEFORE THE Draft about those comparisons.

I've been suggesting LMA as C consistently since before the draft, when I saw him play live at the summer league games.

Even now, I like a front court of Batum, Wallace, and LMA.

Gerald has said he doesn't want to be a 4

Aldridge has said he doesn't want to be a 5

People just refuse to get over that fact for some reason

 

[RoyToy]

Sure you were. In any case, even if you believed Durant was the better choice (not that you have any evidence that you did), that still wouldn't be all that impressive. As I said before, it's not like Oden was considered a far better prospect, just a bit better. Randomly selecting one of two phenoms and then saying it validates your selection process when one phenom gets injured doesn't have much logical validity.

Bowie wasn't considered a phenom at the time of the draft. Oden was. So trying to compare the two is a little silly.

Pretty much.

Both were looked at as HoF talents coming out.

"Once in a generation" was used for both

These guys were rated about as equal as it gets, with Oden getting the edge because players like him are even more rarer than great scoring players

 

[Denny Crane]

You're not wrong to compare Oden to Bowie. Both were injured centers.

One had franchise impacting talent, and that was Greg Oden.

So yes, they're alike in that both of their bodies broke down. They're different in that Oden's potential was so much more than Bowie's.

Bill Walton's body also failed him.

Bowie had as huge a hype surrounding him as Oden did. I never got the Bowie hype, either. I saw him in street clothes with a cast and on crutches when he was with Kentucky.

I had no idea that Jordan would turn out so great, though.

 

[Denny Crane]

Sure you were. In any case, even if you believed Durant was the better choice (not that you have any evidence that you did), that still wouldn't be all that impressive. As I said before, it's not like Oden was considered a far better prospect, just a bit better. Randomly selecting one of two phenoms and then saying it validates your selection process when one phenom gets injured doesn't have much logical validity.

Bowie wasn't considered a phenom at the time of the draft. Oden was. So trying to compare the two (in terms of draft selection process, not results) is a little silly.

In that same thread, MikeDC made the exact argument I made to gambitnut. I saw Durant as the next Kobe, with even more upside. And you don't build championships around centers, it's the superduperstar wing players that win most of the time.

Bowie WAS considered a phenom at the time of he draft. Enough for Portland to take a flier on his upside, post recovery, with the #2 pick.

 

[RoyToy]

Bowie had as huge a hype surrounding him as Oden did. I never got the Bowie hype, either. I saw him in street clothes with a cast and on crutches when he was with Kentucky.

I had no idea that Jordan would turn out so great, though.

Are you sure?

I feel like I've read different about Bowie, and I think Minstrel has said many times that Bowie was never looked at as a franchise changing talent coming out of college.

 

[Minstrel]

Bowie WAS considered a phenom at the time of he draft. Enough for Portland to take a flier on his upside, post recovery, with the #2 pick.

No, he wasn't. He was selected by Portland because he was a big man, the Blazers already had a star shooting guard and "you couldn't build a team around a shooting guard" (a sentiment expressed by, I believe, Rod Thorn on the night the Bulls drafted Jordan). It wasn't really a talent appraisal that caused Bowie to go ahead of Jordan, which was the problem with that pick. It was a talent appraisal (shared by many, almost everyone) that caused Oden to go ahead of Durant. Which is why I don't consider choosing Oden a terrible selection, just a terrible result.

 

[RoyToy]

No, he wasn't. He was selected by Portland because he was a big man, the Blazers already had a star shooting guard and "you couldn't build a team around a shooting guard" (a sentiment expressed by, I believe, Rod Thorn on the night the Bulls drafted Jordan). It wasn't really a talent appraisal that caused Bowie to go ahead of Jordan, which was the problem with that pick. It was a talent appraisal (shared by many, almost everyone) that caused Oden to go ahead of Durant. Which is why I don't consider choosing Oden a terrible selection, just a terrible result.

Well, if there was indeed some serious red flags then yes, it would be a terrible selection.

I get you're arguing talent vs talent, but when you look at everything involved, if they ignored serious red flags, then it would definitely be a terrible selection.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I remember being extremely pleased with the Oden pick, but I also vaguely recall a few pre-draft stories trickling out at the time of the combine talking about his knees and his legs being different lengths ... I also remember thinking that these stories were just a ploy by other teams to drive down Oden's stock and make the Blazers pass on him ... I guess not.

 

[Denny Crane]

Are you sure?

I feel like I've read different about Bowie, and I think Minstrel has said many times that Bowie was never looked at as a franchise changing talent coming out of college.

He was on the cover of sports illustrated and the sporting news a lot while at Kentucky. They picked a lot of televised games to show him play. The announcers raved about him, even though he was on crutches.

 

[RoyToy]

He was on the cover of sports illustrated and the sporting news a lot while at Kentucky. They picked a lot of televised games to show him play. The announcers raved about him, even though he was on crutches.

You could say the same about Tim Tebow

Same with Adam Morrison

 

[Minstrel]

Well, if there was indeed some serious red flags then yes, it would be a terrible selection.

I get you're arguing talent vs talent, but when you look at everything involved, if they ignored serious red flags, then it would definitely be a terrible selection.

As I said earlier, I'm only evaluating based on the information available to us, or me, which is the only way that I, as a fan, can evaluate something like this. I've all along agreed that it is well within the realm of possibility that the medical reports, analyzed properly, could have warned Portland to stay away. Based on the injury history up to that point and what medical issues were publicly reported, it didn't seem to be enough of a risk to pass on his talent.

So, I'll never claim 100% certainty.

 

[Denny Crane]

You could say the same about Tim Tebow

Same with Adam Morrison

Some guys live up to the hype, some don't. I was a huge fan of the Mychal Thompson pick, fwiw.

 

[RR7]

by a lot, do you mean on the cover of SI once?

 

[Denny Crane]

Unlike Bowie, I think Oden was the right pick at the time based on what was knowable then. If one could go back in time and make the pick a-new, of course you select Durant.

Bowie was the wrong pick to make, but not due to the results. If you take Michael Jordan and he suffers a career-ending injury in his first season, that wouldn't have made it the wrong pick. Bowie was the wrong choice because he wasn't the most talented player left on the board. Even at the time, people knew Jordan was more talented. It was out-dated "wisdom" like "you take big over small" and selecting need over talent that led to Bowie's pick.

On the other hand, Oden was viewed as the best player in the draft. Not by a lot, but everything I read suggested that scouts considered Oden as much of a slam-dunk first selection as they'd ever seen. And I still think they were correct in their talent appraisal...injuries derailed his career, not a lack of talent.

It was outdated wisdom, somehow, at a time when teams tried to build around dominant centers. Yet it's not outdated wisdom, somehow, to draft big over the sure thing smaller guy?

Try and weasel your way out of it.

I think your advice was good for drafting durant.

 

[RoyToy]

As I said earlier, I'm only evaluating based on the information available to us, or me, which is the only way that I, as a fan, can evaluate something like this. I've all along agreed that it is well within the realm of possibility that the medical reports, analyzed properly, could have warned Portland to stay away. Based on the injury history up to that point and what medical issues were publicly reported, it didn't seem to be enough of a risk to pass on his talent.

So, I'll never claim 100% certainty.

Well, one leg shorter than the other is a pretty big red flag imo

Also, listening to interviews of prestigious medical examiners around the country, they said they could tell Oden would have problems just because of the way he ran (one leg shorter than the other certainly has a lot to do with that).

I think ultimately the Blazers did take a chance on him because he's such a rare type of player, but I think they possibly overlooked a lot of the medical red flags to do so. And depending on how bad those red flags were would determine just how terrible of a selection it was or wasn't.

 

[Minstrel]

It was outdated wisdom, somehow, at a time when teams tried to build around dominant centers. Yet it's not outdated wisdom, somehow, to draft big over the sure thing smaller guy?

Honestly, not only do I not know what you're trying to say, I don't think even you know what you're trying to say at this point.

I'm saying that now we know that the logic used then, to draft big over small even if there's a talent disparity, wasn't good, so it's out-dated. In no way have I ever advocated that Oden should have been selected over Durant because Oden is the larger player, and there's not a lot of evidence that that's the way Portland made the decision. Oden was, from everything I read, viewed as the more talented player, which was the reason to take him.

Now, if Pritchard or Allen were to say that the reason Portland selected Oden over Durant was because "you have to take the bigger player," then I'd consider that a terrible selection process, too.

 

[Denny Crane]

by a lot, do you mean on the cover of SI once?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Street-Smit...wie-Kentucky-Cover-/390378452532#ht_528wt_689

 

[RoyToy]

Some guys live up to the hype, some don't. I was a huge fan of the Mychal Thompson pick, fwiw.

Well, it depends on how high the hype was, and I still haven't seen any evidence Bowie was the prospect Oden was.

Not saying you're wrong, but that period was before my time so I literally have no idea, but have read different things that Bowie was drafted specifically for need and not necessarily talent.

 

[RR7]

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Street-Smit...wie-Kentucky-Cover-/390378452532#ht_528wt_689

I'll just repeat what I said, because your picture has nothing to do with it. by a lot, do you mean on the cover of SI once.

 

[Denny Crane]

Honestly, not only do I not know what you're trying to say, I don't think even you know what you're trying to say at this point.

I'm saying that now we know that the logic used then, to draft big over small even if there's a talent disparity, wasn't good, so it's out-dated. In no way have I ever advocated that Oden should have been selected over Durant because Oden is the larger player, and there's not a lot of evidence that that's the way Portland made the decision. Oden was, from everything I read, viewed as the more talented player, which was the reason to take him.

Now, if Pritchard or Allen were to say that the reason Portland selected Oden over Durant was because "you have to take the bigger player," then I'd consider that a terrible selection process, too.

Oden wasn't the most talented player. He was big and a gamble on his upside. Durant was 6'9" and played some SG. all defensive team in college.

Oden's offense was good within 3ft of the basket.

Durant was AP college player of the year, Adolph Rupp trophy (best college player), US Basketball Writer's Association best college player! Naismith award (best college player), John Wooden award (best college player), And the National Association of Basketball Coaches Best Division I player.

Oden won no such awards.

 

[Denny Crane]

Well, it depends on how high the hype was, and I still haven't seen any evidence Bowie was the prospect Oden was.

Not saying you're wrong, but that period was before my time so I literally have no idea, but have read different things that Bowie was drafted specifically for need and not necessarily talent.

It wasn't before my time.

Olajuan and Drexler were hyped big as well. Phi Slamma Jamma was the team's nickname.

Fwiw, with 20-20 hindsight, I'd pick Hakeem #1 ahead of Jordan, every time. He was that good, just didn't have Jordan's supporting cast.

 

[Denny Crane]

For the record, Bowie was picked 2 at a time when 8 of 11 first overall picks were centers.

And I don't feel the blazers made a horrible pick, taking Bowie.

Taking LaRue Martin with the first pick overall was about as bad as any bust I can think of.

 

[RR7]

Oden was naismith prep player of the year, indiana mr. basketball, AP All american first team, big ten defensive player of the year and big ten first team. Nope, he didn't win Durant's awards, but he won many awards, and was just as talented.