Wow, The Basketball Public Has Bailed Early On Oden

[Rastapopoulos]

So...you'll be posting a picture of Dwight Howard?

Przybilla.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Ill be sure to remind you come January....and June

I wondered about those dates - then I remembered: Bynum takes a nice rest every season between those months.

Perhaps you need a reminder of Bynum's performance this June.

 

[DaRizzle]

I wondered about those dates - then I remembered: Bynum takes a nice rest every season between those months.

Perhaps you need a reminder of Bynum's performance this June.

Oh so future improvement applies to Oden but not Bynum....gotcha

 

[Further]

it BETTER not be getting rid of his sig.. I'll lay that ground rule right there!

I'm about to propose something that will hopefully please you.

Its on like Donkey Kong...you think of some stuff...ill do the same

I propose that the winner gets to steal the others sig if they want, and force any sig they decide on. That way, if I win, your sig will live on. If I lose, your sig will live on.

Duration: through the playoffs and until day one of the following preseason.

What: PER over the second half of the season. Both players must average 20+ mpg and play in 31 of the final 41 games. If either player does not match these criteria the bet is off. If PER is within 1.00 we will call it a tie and roll the bet over till the next season.

Is this good with you?

If you would rather lay $50 on it, that's cool too, but I would prefer something like mentioned above.

 

[BBert]

DaRizzle, I would love to lay down an Oden v Bynum bet of some kind this year. I know that Bynum is better at the moment, so the bet would be regarding the second half of the season. If you want to come up with some parameters, let me know. Sig? Avatar? up to you, but the idea would be better player over 2nd half of season. But we have to base it on something concrete.

Offense isn't everything. That's why there will always be the Wilt v. Russell debates. How are you going to quantify Oden's superior defensive impact on the game compaired to Bynum?

 

[Further]

Offense isn't everything. That's why there will always be the Wilt v. Russell debates. How are you going to quantify Oden's superior defensive impact on the game compaired to Bynum?

as I said in the post above yours, PER is designed to take O and D into account.

 

[BBert]

as I said in the post above yours, PER is designed to take O and D into account.

Check. I didn't see that. I'll be rooting for you (and Greg).

 

[Boob-No-More]

Great article. Thanks for posting the link.

This was the best part:

"The public generally refuses to recognize the importance of rebounding in the game of basketball. I think (just a hunch) that people mistakenly assume rebounding is easy, or they assume that if a player is tall he should rebound, or they subsconsiouscly discount the value of rebounds because they assume that if the player who grabbed the rebound didn't get it someone else would have -- all mistaken impressions. Rebounding is and always has been a key to winning in basketball. Bill Russell proved that conclusively in the 1960s, and intensive research and analysis since then examining how wins are produced in the NBA has only confirmed it."

This is oh so true. I've been playing, coaching and watching basketball for over 40 years, and cannot stress enough the importance of rebounding. Yet, the general public doesn't value rebounding. When was the last time somebody made the Sports Center play of the night for getting a rebound? But, there is a huge correlation between rebounding and winning - at all levels. Great rebounding can make up for so many other deficiencies - poor shooting, weak defense, etc. Rebounds = possessions. If you have substantially more rebounds than your opponent, you have a much greater chance of winning. Remember the year the Blazers won 21 games and had the worst record in the league? It's no coincidence that they also finished last in the league in rebounding that season.

And, come the post season, when the pace slows down resulting in fewer possessions per game, every possession (and, therefore rebounding advantage), becomes even more important. Some people think that Oden must become a dominant low post scorer in order for the Blazers to win a championship. I disagree. Improved scoring would help, but his rebounding and defense will be the keys It's a lot easier to find capable scorers than great rebounders (and great defenders). If Oden can continue to rebound at the same rate he did last year, as his minutes go up, the Blazers will surround him with enough scorers to win multiple titles.

BNM

 

[mook]

And, come the post season, when the pace slows down resulting in fewer possessions per game, every possession (and, therefore rebounding advantage), becomes even more important. Some people think that Oden must become a dominant low post scorer in order for the Blazers to win a championship. I disagree. Improved scoring would help, but his rebounding and defense will be the keys It's a lot easier to find capable scorers than great rebounders (and great defenders). If Oden can continue to rebound at the same rate he did last year, as his minutes go up, the Blazers will surround him with enough scorers to win multiple titles.

BNM

Yup. If I had a choice between a young Rick Smitts or a young Dikembe Mutombo for this team, I'd definitely take Deke.

 

[DaRizzle]

I'm about to propose something that will hopefully please you.

I propose that the winner gets to steal the others sig if they want, and force any sig they decide on. That way, if I win, your sig will live on. If I lose, your sig will live on.

Duration: through the playoffs and until day one of the following preseason.

What: PER over the second half of the season. Both players must average 20+ mpg and play in 31 of the final 41 games. If either player does not match these criteria the bet is off. If PER is within 1.00 we will call it a tie and roll the bet over till the next season.

Is this good with you?

If you would rather lay $50 on it, that's cool too, but I would prefer something like mentioned above.

I still want to do the bet but sorry, I dont like what you proposed. Id rather deal with the real stats rather than PER...Maybe something like we take PPG, RPG, BPG, FG%, FT%...whicher player has 3 or more categories won at the end of the regular season wins the bet. Just throwing out ideas

 

[crandc]

I'm glad. Let them forget all about Oden ... until he plays their team.

 

[BBert]

B-N-M, I couldn't agree more. The first thing I thought of reading that article is back in the Drexler...Buck Williams days when we were the best rebounding team in the league. If the scoring had been as low as it is now, it would have been an even bigger advantage. Oden does not have to be an offensive force if he anchors the defense, blocks out, and cleans the boards. But I still think he will be an offensive force in certain situations even if used sparingly due to our plethora of other offensive options. I still expect big things from the big man. But hey, I'm a Blazers optimist.

 

[Boob-No-More]

B-N-M, I couldn't agree more. The first thing I thought of reading that article is back in the Drexler...Buck Williams days when we were the best rebounding team in the league. If the scoring had been as low as it is now, it would have been an even bigger advantage. Oden does not have to be an offensive force if he anchors the defense, blocks out, and cleans the boards. But I still think he will be an offensive force in certain situations even if used sparingly due to our plethora of other offensive options. I still expect big things from the big man. But hey, I'm a Blazers optimist.

I also think he'll become solid offensively once he fully recovers from his microfracture surgery and adjusts to the speed of the NBA game. I don't think he will dominate offensively against all opponents, but against teams that lack big strong centers to match his size and strength, he will simply overpower them. His offensive rebounding will also be a big plus and will add a few PPG to his scoring average. I wouldn't be surprised to see him eventually break the 20 PPG barrier, but he will never be in the running for a league scoring title.

Still, even if he only averages in the high teens in scoring, that, combined with the rebounding and defense, will make him one of the most valuable big men in the league.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

I still want to do the bet but sorry, I dont like what you proposed. Id rather deal with the real stats rather than PER...Maybe something like we take PPG, RPG, BPG, FG%, FT%...whicher player has 3 or more categories won at the end of the regular season wins the bet. Just throwing out ideas

PER is a real stat (actually a combination of several real stats). It's not perfect, however (no composite stat is). It heavily favors offense over defense (because offensive contributions are more easily quantified in individual stats).

I'd hesitate to use raw stats (PPG, RPG, etc.) due to pace. Players on teams that play at a faster pace simple have more opportunities to rack up impressive individual stats. The Blazers were dead last in the league in pace last year. So, that hurts their players in terms of individual stats. The Lakers were 5th in pace last season. So, Bynum benefits from the fact that his team gets about 8 more possessions per game than the Blazers. That's 8 more opportunities to score, get a rebound, etc. per game. Of course, PER is pace adjusted, but as noted it has other flaws. So, how about pace adjusted PPG, RPG (or TRB%) and BPG combined with raw FG% and FT%.

Even then, I'm not so sure FT% is as important in big men as their ability to get to the line. I'd rather have a big man who gets to the line 500 times and hits 70% of his FTs than one who gets to the line 200 times and hits 75%. In addition to the fact that player A made 200 more FT than player B, he is also putting a lot more pressure on the defense and getting his opponents in foul trouble. So, how about total FT made? Oden and Bynum were actually pretty close in FT made last season. Bynum made 152 FT in 1446 minutes played and Oden made 144 FT in 1314 minutes played. That works out to 3.9 FTM/36 for Oden and 3.8 FTM/36 for Bynum.

Since both players have seen their PT limited due to injuries over the past two seasons, there should also be a provisions for a minimum number of games and minutes played. Or you could simply add categories for total PTS, total REB, total BLKS, etc. This would penalize the player who can't stay on the court for whatever reason and would reward the player who is out there contributing to his team's success on a nightly basis.

So, you could go with the following categories:

Pace Adjusted PPG
TRB% (or Pace Adjusted RPG)
Pace Adjusted BPG
FG%
Total FT Made
Total PTS
Total REB
Total BLKs

This gives you 8 categories. So, the bet could end in a tie. In that case, I'd recommend PER as the tie breaker.

BNM

 

[Further]

So, you could go with the following categories:

Pace Adjusted PPG
TRB% (or Pace Adjusted RPG)
Pace Adjusted BPG
FG%
Total FT Made
Total PTS
Total REB
Total BLKs

This gives you 8 categories. So, the bet could end in a tie. In that case, I'd recommend PER as the tie breaker.

BNM

I'm down with BNM's suggestion. Do we have a bet?

 

[Foulzilla]

as I said in the post above yours, PER is designed to take O and D into account.

PER really doesn't factor in D much at all. Just steals and blocks. Unfortunately, there really aren't many good ways to quantify defense with numbers, because so much of it doesn't show up in a box score.

You keep thinking that, see how that works for you...later this year Ill show you a C who is leading the league in FG%

He didn't even have a better FG% than Oden this year. What makes you think next will be different?
08-09 FG%
Oden: .524
Bynum: .457

 

[Wizard Mentor]

So, DaRizzle wants to ignore the posted article which used statistics, and an inline article that used statistics, and makes several posts saying the articles are wrong, because HE THINKS SO. At least he's done a good job of baiting!

 

[DaRizzle]

So, DaRizzle wants to ignore the posted article which used statistics, and an inline article that used statistics, and makes several posts saying the articles are wrong, because HE THINKS SO. At least he's done a good job of baiting!

Obviously you are not aware of "The most interesting man in the world"
"If he disagrees with you, it is because you are wrong" is one of his abilities according to the commercial

...lighten up Francis (or are you unaware of that one too)

 

[Ghost Pepper]

I may be wrong but Oden was given allstar praise NBA hall of famer type words, before he got out of high school! Not sure Bynum got that kind of press. Oden was a once in a decade center, don't know Bynum was considered that way. I may be wrong!

Just like all of us Blazer fans remember GO walking out downtown and feeling our team had been saved...... the nation might have viewed him the same way!!!

Than the massive crash!!!!!! He's hurt for the whole rookie year...... there's no Oden/Durant showdown, and will GO ever come back to the franchise ruling center everyone thought he'd be?

So here all basketball fans sit today wondering...... is GO gonna be, or is he an already has been? This is the year!!!

 

[Wheels]

Obviously you are not aware of "The most interesting man in the world"
"If he disagrees with you, it is because you are wrong" is one of his abilities according to the commercial

...lighten up Francis (or are you unaware of that one too)

Stay Thirsty DaRizzle!

 

[DaRizzle]

I may be wrong but Oden was given allstar praise NBA hall of famer type words, before he got out of high school! Not sure Bynum got that kind of press. Oden was a once in a decade center, don't know Bynum was considered that way. I may be wrong!

...and we all know that EVERY highly touted recruit lives up to expectations like Kwame Brown, and no 2nd round picks like Micheal Redd ever make an all star team....right?

 

[Ghost Pepper]

True but Oden was considered a can't miss first pick, no brainer must take at all cost player! Agree?

 

[Boob-No-More]

...and we all know that EVERY highly touted recruit lives up to expectations like Kwame Brown, and no 2nd round picks like Micheal Redd ever make an all star team....right?

I agree with your general point. However, Kwame wasn't considered a highly touted can't miss pick. In fact, Jordan taking him 1st in that draft was considered a big reach and a real head scratcher (most mocks has Kwame going around 6th). That draft was top heavy with young bigs, and Chandler, Curry and even Gasol were all more highly regarded and ranked higher heading into the draft than the relatively unknown Kwame Brown. Jordan gambled and lost. No surprise there.

BNM

 

[elcap15]

He didn't even have a better FG% than Oden this year. What makes you think next will be different?
08-09 FG%
Oden: .524
Bynum: .457

Wrong. You are looking at playoff stats. You are ultimately still correct however negligibly

Oden: .564
Bynum .560

 

[Further]

Come on DaRizzle, tell me we have a deal as per the suggested criteria. It seems unbiased and fair to both players.

PER is a real stat (actually a combination of several real stats). It's not perfect, however (no composite stat is). It heavily favors offense over defense (because offensive contributions are more easily quantified in individual stats).

I'd hesitate to use raw stats (PPG, RPG, etc.) due to pace. Players on teams that play at a faster pace simple have more opportunities to rack up impressive individual stats. The Blazers were dead last in the league in pace last year. So, that hurts their players in terms of individual stats. The Lakers were 5th in pace last season. So, Bynum benefits from the fact that his team gets about 8 more possessions per game than the Blazers. That's 8 more opportunities to score, get a rebound, etc. per game. Of course, PER is pace adjusted, but as noted it has other flaws. So, how about pace adjusted PPG, RPG (or TRB%) and BPG combined with raw FG% and FT%.

Even then, I'm not so sure FT% is as important in big men as their ability to get to the line. I'd rather have a big man who gets to the line 500 times and hits 70% of his FTs than one who gets to the line 200 times and hits 75%. In addition to the fact that player A made 200 more FT than player B, he is also putting a lot more pressure on the defense and getting his opponents in foul trouble. So, how about total FT made? Oden and Bynum were actually pretty close in FT made last season. Bynum made 152 FT in 1446 minutes played and Oden made 144 FT in 1314 minutes played. That works out to 3.9 FTM/36 for Oden and 3.8 FTM/36 for Bynum.

Since both players have seen their PT limited due to injuries over the past two seasons, there should also be a provisions for a minimum number of games and minutes played. Or you could simply add categories for total PTS, total REB, total BLKS, etc. This would penalize the player who can't stay on the court for whatever reason and would reward the player who is out there contributing to his team's success on a nightly basis.

So, you could go with the following categories:

Pace Adjusted PPG
TRB% (or Pace Adjusted RPG)
Pace Adjusted BPG
FG%
Total FT Made
Total PTS
Total REB
Total BLKs

This gives you 8 categories. So, the bet could end in a tie. In that case, I'd recommend PER as the tie breaker.

BNM

 

[DaRizzle]

I want ElCaps opinion on it...hes my homey

 

[Foulzilla]

Wrong. You are looking at playoff stats. You are ultimately still correct however negligibly

Oden: .564
Bynum .560

Good catch. I didn't realize that they were still showing playoff stats first, which seems odd to me. Although I guess technically they are the most recent stats, I just didn't expect it.

 

[elcap15]

Good catch. I didn't realize that they were still showing playoff stats first, which seems odd to me. Although I guess technically they are the most recent stats, I just didn't expect it.

that always pisses me off too

 

[hasoos]

From the Milwaukee Bucks Diary? The Bucks might as well be the D-League for the rest of the league, since what they primarily do is develope talent and have it leave to somewhere else to play. Maybe instead of bitching about our players, that guy should be bitching about his management team that keeps that team struggling every year with it's wonderful decisions.

 

[elcap15]

I want ElCaps opinion on it...hes my homey

I think BNM's stats are alright. I dont like Rebound% stats, but pace adjusted rebounds makes sense. I also think Assists should be included, an undervalued stat for a center IMO. Turnovers could also be included although that might just penalize whoever is getting more touches/PT