Yahoo Sports - NBA age minimum again

[BasX]

To be honest too, some players take that 1 year and are still not ready ala BJ Mullens.

 

[bluefrog]

I don't remember who pioneered the idea but one way to limit bad lottery picks is to abolish guaranteed contracts for rookies. The union would never go for it though.

 

[hasoos]

I challenge anybody to go out and actually prove that high school players coming out are a higher busts rate than any other players. The only reason it draws so much attention is because players that come out early, tend to be more talent and draw more attention from the media. If anything, the NBA should look at the players who are now leading the teams to the finals, and realize the hypocrisy that is present.

KG=Straight out of high school.
Lebron=Straight out of high school.
Kobe=Straight out of high school.
Dwight Howard=Straight out of high school.

NBA=Hypocrites.

 

[Денг Гордон]

I challenge anybody to go out and actually prove that high school players coming out are a higher busts rate than any other players. The only reason it draws so much attention is because players that come out early, tend to be more talent and draw more attention from the media. If anything, the NBA should look at the players who are now leading the teams to the finals, and realize the hypocrisy that is present.

KG=Straight out of high school.
Lebron=Straight out of high school.
Kobe=Straight out of high school.
Dwight Howard=Straight out of high school.

NBA=Hypocrites.

The League needs to throw all their weight behind Tim Duncan than, and to show what failures the high schoolers are!

Duncan = Four Years of College

 

[mook]

I challenge anybody to go out and actually prove that high school players coming out are a higher busts rate than any other players. The only reason it draws so much attention is because players that come out early, tend to be more talent and draw more attention from the media. If anything, the NBA should look at the players who are now leading the teams to the finals, and realize the hypocrisy that is present.

KG=Straight out of high school.
Lebron=Straight out of high school.
Kobe=Straight out of high school.
Dwight Howard=Straight out of high school.

NBA=Hypocrites.

The point isn't that they are more likely to be busts. The point is, why should the NBA put a qualified veteran out of a job so that a kid will one day develop to take his place?

Imagine you owned a delivery company. You have the option to hire the best driver in the world, but he's too young to get his driver's license. You just have to wait 2 years for him to drive.

Do you fire an existing mediocre driver so you get him locked up, knowing that your existing delivery business is going to suffer? Or do you tell the kid to come back in two years?

Obviously, it's in your best business interest to have the most qualified, capable people working for you right now. Let somebody else develop the young talent until they are ready. Then hire them.

That's what the NBA decided to do. I don't really see it as hypocritical. I see it as the NBA trying to put the best talent possible on the court every night for the benefit of the fans.

 

[handiman]

Problem with that analogy is, delivery companies don't have a draft... The whole point of over-reaching for prospects is to get them while you can. The ping pong balls might not fall in your favor next time that player becomes available.

 

[mook]

Problem with that analogy is, delivery companies don't have a draft... The whole point of over-reaching for prospects is to get them while you can. The ping pong balls might not fall in your favor next time that player becomes available.

Exactly. That's why in my analogy, the delivery company isn't a team, it's the NBA League.

The smart move for an individual team is to draft the best prospect and sit on him, but that drags down the quality of the overall play of the league.

The smart move for the entire league is to limit or eliminate anyone who isn't ready right now to suit up and play at the NBA level. The age limit helps in achieving that goal.

 

[hasoos]

The point isn't that they are more likely to be busts. The point is, why should the NBA put a qualified veteran out of a job so that a kid will one day develop to take his place?

Imagine you owned a delivery company. You have the option to hire the best driver in the world, but he's too young to get his driver's license. You just have to wait 2 years for him to drive.

Do you fire an existing mediocre driver so you get him locked up, knowing that your existing delivery business is going to suffer? Or do you tell the kid to come back in two years?

Obviously, it's in your best business interest to have the most qualified, capable people working for you right now. Let somebody else develop the young talent until they are ready. Then hire them.

That's what the NBA decided to do. I don't really see it as hypocritical. I see it as the NBA trying to put the best talent possible on the court every night for the benefit of the fans.

Here is the problem with your straw man. The veteran driver in your scenario is not going to make your company more money than the young driver. Secondly, there is no license required for basketball. Thirdly, you are assuming the young player coming in has to get better to be a better player than the veteran. That is so an untrue blanket statement. The "Qualified" has to be who is a better player.

The facts are, higher talented players are picked higher in the draft, it doesn't matter how many years they have gone to school.

What next? Are you going to demand that the NBA drafts all college seniors first? That is complete bullshit.

 

[Run BJM]

I do like the one year of college ball for the NBA's sake- a lot of uber hyped HSers get exposed to higher competition levels. If they prove to still be dominant a la Rose/Beasley they'll still get drafted very high. If they prove to suck ass they'll be ranked more appropriately by NBA clubs (which protects the NBA) but they'll still have the choice to come out if they choose or stay in college and try their luck next year.

However I do believe that pretty much every age of draft prospect has around the same bust rate. Plenty of juniors/seniors who come out are complete busts. Shelden Williams, Adam Morrison, Randy Foye (guess hes done ok this year though), Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, Sean May, Emeka Okafor (hes a decent player but not nearly as good as expected especially considering people thought the Magic were nuts to take Dwight over him), Rafael Arujo, Luke Jaskon, etc. All these guys come to mind as lotto guys who came out as upper classmen and were complete busts. Most of them were severely outperformed by their high school or European-but-still-high-school aged counterparts.

My personal point of view is that I LOVE taking college freshman in the mid-late lotto. I'm a W's fan so we're always picking from 9-14; just after the elite prospects are gone. So many times we've taken Mike Dunleavy Jr.'s over Amare's (9th overall pick), or Caron Butler's. Adonal Foyle's over Tracy McGrady's, Todd Fuller's over Kobe Bryant's, and Jermaine O'Neals, Joe Smith's over Kevin Garnett's. We tried to go the "safe" route with more experienced college guys who would be "NBA ready" and have "good fundamentals". We got completely fucked in all those drafts. Having these high potential freshman available later on gives us a chance to land a stud and IMO it has just the same chance of the player being mediocre/terrible. We got Anthony Randolph last season and he has proven to be more productive than most rookies in the class plus hes arguably got the highest ceiling. He could end up being one of the top players in his class and we got him at 14. Meanwhile older, "safer" picks like Brandon Rush and Joe Alexander have done jack.

 

[mook]

The veteran driver in your scenario is not going to make your company more money than the young driver.

Actually, he does. Because he can actually drive while the kid has to sit out for a few years.

Secondly, there is no license required for basketball.

That's why it's called an "analogy." It ain't perfect, but it's functional.

Thirdly, you are assuming the young player coming in has to get better to be a better player than the veteran. That is so an untrue blanket statement. The "Qualified" has to be who is a better player.

This is your only actual argument that I can see, so I'll address it. Was Travis Outlaw or Jermaine O'Neal more qualified in his first season than a veteran bench guy like Stacey Augmon? Clearly not. Even Kobe Bryant couldn't get a starting job until his third year.

Was LeBron ready to go right off the bat? Definitely. But he's a massive exception.

There seems to generally be a lag time in for high schoolers to be productive NBA players. And that's not taking into account Da O's point that it's also hard to truly evaluate a lot of high school players.

My question to you: Do you really think it'd make the league more competitive to lower the age limit?
If so, how?
If not, then why would the NBA do it?

 

[rocketeer]

The other hidden factor that we don't see, is that these HS players think that "they are the game" and are envisioning the NBA lifestyle and minimum salary for rookies. That $$ amount in the first year in the NBA is insane for them (for rookies). I personally would like NBA players to have at least 2 years of college experience or the exception of one top HS player that must be approved by the NBA or NBA coaches.. Look how many busts we have had over the years.
However I feel bad that 3 years in college for Taurean Green didn't make the NBA and he had to play abroad.

what busts are you talking about?

 

[rocketeer]

The point isn't that they are more likely to be busts. The point is, why should the NBA put a qualified veteran out of a job so that a kid will one day develop to take his place?

Imagine you owned a delivery company. You have the option to hire the best driver in the world, but he's too young to get his driver's license. You just have to wait 2 years for him to drive.

Do you fire an existing mediocre driver so you get him locked up, knowing that your existing delivery business is going to suffer? Or do you tell the kid to come back in two years?

Obviously, it's in your best business interest to have the most qualified, capable people working for you right now. Let somebody else develop the young talent until they are ready. Then hire them.

That's what the NBA decided to do. I don't really see it as hypocritical. I see it as the NBA trying to put the best talent possible on the court every night for the benefit of the fans.

of course that analogy is terrible because there is nothing stopping the high school player from being able to play nba ball(other than the league rule of course). your analogy would make sense if the league allowed teams to draft players straight from high school but they still had to play a year of college before allowing them to play in the league(so the team would just have their rights up until that point).

and are you really going to tell me that guys like lebron, kobe, tmac, garnett, amare, dwight, al jefferson, jr smith, and josh smith weren't helping their teams their rookie years? they weren't stars at that point(well other than lebron) but they still gave their teams more production than the random veteran bench player whose spot they took.

 

[rocketeer]

I do like the one year of college ball for the NBA's sake- a lot of uber hyped HSers get exposed to higher competition levels. If they prove to still be dominant a la Rose/Beasley they'll still get drafted very high. If they prove to suck ass they'll be ranked more appropriately by NBA clubs (which protects the NBA) but they'll still have the choice to come out if they choose or stay in college and try their luck next year.

of course if teams just do their jobs and put the work in, it doesn't take a year of college for that to happen. during his junior year of high school kendrick perkins was thought of as a top 5 pick and sometimes was even considered number 2 behind lebron. he ended up going 27th.

However I do believe that pretty much every age of draft prospect has around the same bust rate. Plenty of juniors/seniors who come out are complete busts. Shelden Williams, Adam Morrison, Randy Foye (guess hes done ok this year though), Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, Sean May, Emeka Okafor (hes a decent player but not nearly as good as expected especially considering people thought the Magic were nuts to take Dwight over him), Rafael Arujo, Luke Jaskon, etc. All these guys come to mind as lotto guys who came out as upper classmen and were complete busts. Most of them were severely outperformed by their high school or European-but-still-high-school aged counterparts.

i'd say that high school players bust less because it's mostly only the top talent coming out with a few guys who are making bad decisions for various reasons(couldn't get into school, bad advice, etc).

 

[Sinobas]

I don't understand the logic in this. Do think they the 1 extra year in college will make them better players than 1 year in the NBA? I don't think coming straight over ruined anyone's career. Some got off to slow starts....

 

[Da_O]

I don't understand the logic in this. Do think they the 1 extra year in college will make them better players than 1 year in the NBA? I don't think coming straight over ruined anyone's career. Some got off to slow starts....

I don't think it's to make them better players, but to better evaluate a prospect against higher level competition. So instead to not waste a high draft pick on somebody that was more raw than originally anticipated ala Mullens, DeAndre Jordan.

Keeping them one more year would just be futile.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Starting with 1995, when the floodgates opened again for high schoolers to the NBA, we have:

1995:

5. Kevin Garnett - Superstar

1996:

13. Kobe Bryant - Superstar
17. Jermaine O'neal - Allstar

1997:

9. Tracy McGrady - Superstar

1998:

25. Al Harrington - Good NBA Starter
32. Rashard Lewis - Allstar

1999:

5. Jonathon Bender - Bench Player, bad knees, early retirement.

2000:

3. Darius Miles - Solid NBA starter and cap destroyer, bad knees.
23. DeShawn Stevenson - Mediocre NBA Starter

2001:

1. Kwame Brown - NBA Rotation Player
2. Tyson Chandler - Good Starter, suffered bad back injury early in career.
4. Eddy Curry - Good Starter, family problems and obese now, also heart problems.
8. Desagna Diop - Rotation Guy
47. Ousmanne Cissi - ????

2002:

9. Amare Stoudemire - NBA Superstar

2003:

1. Lebron James - NBA Superstar
23. Travis Outlaw - Rotation Player
26. Ndudi Ebi - NBA Washout, interesting case. Only 2 seasons, wasn't allowed for the D-League because he was too old. Only played 2 games for the T'Wolves his 2nd year, but averaged 13.5 PPG...now overseas.
27. Kendrick Perkins - Solid NBA Starter
48. James Lang - NBA Washout

2004:

1. Dwight Howard - NBA Superstar
4. Shaun Livingston - Borderline NBA scrub. His knee fell off.
12. Robert Swift - NBA Scrub
15. Al Jefferson - Allstar Caliber
17. Josh Smith - Borderline Allstar Caliber
18. J.R. Smith - Good, starter caliber NBA player.
19. Dorell Wright - NBA Scrub

2005:

6. Martell Webster - NBA Rotation Player
10. Andrew Bynum - Good NBA Starter
18. Gerald Green - NBA Scrub
34. CJ Miles - NBA Starter
35. Ricky Sanchez - NBA Washout?
40. Monta Ellis - NBA Allstar Caliber
45. Louis Williams - Solid NBA Starter
49. Andray Blatche - NBA Starter
56. Amir Johnson - NBA Scrub

So we're talking about:

First Round:

Superstars - 6 (22.2%)
Allstars - 3 (11.1%)
Starters - 8 (29.6%)
Rotational Bench Player - 5 (18.5%)
Scrubs - 4 (14.8%)
Washouts - 1 (3.7%)

Second Round:

Superstars - 0 (0%)
Allstars - 2 (22.2%)
Starters - 3 (33.3%)
Rotational Bench Player - 0 (0%)
Scrubs - 1 (11.1%)
Washouts - 3 (33.3%)

 

[rocketeer]

Starting with 1995, when the floodgates opened again for high schoolers to the NBA, we have:

1995:

5. Kevin Garnett - Superstar

1996:

13. Kobe Bryant - Superstar
17. Jermaine O'neal - Allstar

1997:

9. Tracy McGrady - Superstar

1998:

25. Al Harrington - Good NBA Starter
32. Rashard Lewis - Allstar

1999:

5. Jonathon Bender - Bench Player, bad knees, early retirement.

2000:

3. Darius Miles - Solid NBA starter and cap destroyer, bad knees.
23. DeShawn Stevenson - Mediocre NBA Starter

2001:

1. Kwame Brown - NBA Rotation Player
2. Tyson Chandler - Good Starter, suffered bad back injury early in career.
4. Eddy Curry - Good Starter, family problems and obese now, also heart problems.
8. Desagna Diop - Rotation Guy
47. Ousmanne Cissi - ????

2002:

9. Amare Stoudemire - NBA Superstar

2003:

1. Lebron James - NBA Superstar
23. Travis Outlaw - Rotation Player
26. Ndudi Ebi - NBA Washout, interesting case. Only 2 seasons, wasn't allowed for the D-League because he was too old. Only played 2 games for the T'Wolves his 2nd year, but averaged 13.5 PPG...now overseas.
27. Kendrick Perkins - Solid NBA Starter
48. James Lang - NBA Washout

2004:

1. Dwight Howard - NBA Superstar
4. Shaun Livingston - Borderline NBA scrub. His knee fell off.
12. Robert Swift - NBA Scrub
15. Al Jefferson - Allstar Caliber
17. Josh Smith - Borderline Allstar Caliber
18. J.R. Smith - Good, starter caliber NBA player.
19. Dorell Wright - NBA Scrub

2005:

6. Martell Webster - NBA Rotation Player
10. Andrew Bynum - Good NBA Starter
18. Gerald Green - NBA Scrub
34. CJ Miles - NBA Starter
35. Ricky Sanchez - NBA Washout?
40. Monta Ellis - NBA Allstar Caliber
45. Louis Williams - Solid NBA Starter
49. Andray Blatche - NBA Starter
56. Amir Johnson - NBA Scrub

So we're talking about:

First Round:

Superstars - 6 (22.2%)
Allstars - 3 (11.1%)
Starters - 8 (29.6%)
Rotational Bench Player - 5 (18.5%)
Scrubs - 4 (14.8%)
Washouts - 1 (3.7%)

Second Round:

Superstars - 0 (0%)
Allstars - 2 (22.2%)
Starters - 3 (33.3%)
Rotational Bench Player - 0 (0%)
Scrubs - 1 (11.1%)
Washouts - 3 (33.3%)

that's just the players who got drafted. you also have to take into account the guys like lenny cooke who went undrafted. but the numbers still will look very good for high school players.

and really, even some of the guys who people will look at as failures(bender, miles, livingston) had proven themselves as at least solid nba rotation players before injuries ruined their careers.

 

[Денг Гордон]

I think the 2001 draft is what killed things.

Kwame Brown as the ultimate bust of a number 1 pick.

The Tyson/Eddy twin towers experiment failing in Chicago. (It wasn't that bad though, we finished in 3rd with Curry as our starting center averaging ~16 a game, and Tyson Chandler off the bench, who played great defense and had lots of clutch blocks).

And you have to take into account that Chandler had a vicious back injury early in his career too, which changed the way he moved around the court, and also had to deal with Scott Skiles, who thought big men only should rebound and play defense. If you actually go back and look at Chandler under Cartwright, he looked like he might become a superstar. Look at the stretch from his 2nd season, from Feb 12th to March 29th, before he suffered an injury. He averaged 13.2 PPG 11 RPG 2.1 BPG. Look at some of Chandler's games 19/22/3, 27/18/2, 21/17/7, 23/14/3, 15/12/6, 13/22/4 he was a beast.

So even for a guy like Chandler, he had the superstar talent to warrant his high pick, but caught some bad breaks along the way in terms of injuries and a coach. Eddy Curry, again, clearly has the superstar talent, but he didn't have the superstar mindset. Maybe if they landed with better organizations at the time, they would have developed better, as the Bulls are known for not developing their young talent very well.

The high picks like Kwame Brown who just clearly don't have the talent are very few among high school players.

 

[rocketeer]

So even for a guy like Chandler, he had the superstar talent to warrant his high pick, but caught some bad breaks along the way in terms of injuries and a coach. Eddy Curry, again, clearly has the superstar talent, but he didn't have the superstar mindset. Maybe if they landed with better organizations at the time, they would have developed better, as the Bulls are known for not developing their young talent very well.

neither guy ever had superstar talent. curry always had the talent to be among the best low post scorers in the league, but couldn't play defense and was a weak rebounder. chandler was the opposite(and still is) only being able to rebound and defend but on offense was basically limited to putbacks and finishing what other players started for him.

 

[Minstrel]

This is your only actual argument that I can see, so I'll address it. Was Travis Outlaw or Jermaine O'Neal more qualified in his first season than a veteran bench guy like Stacey Augmon? Clearly not. Even Kobe Bryant couldn't get a starting job until his third year.

But it's not the mediocre, middle-tier guys who get pushed out for Outlaw or O'Neal. It's the guys who have almost nothing left. Teams always want the best players, so they're not going to push out an effective Augmon if they can push out an ineffective Tree Rollins, instead. Is Outlaw or O'Neal more qualified to play than a player just as bad as them due to decline? Yes, I'd say so, because Outlaw and O'Neal are going to be improving as they go, so represent a better situation even in the here and now.