You be the GM: Nurkic extension this summer?

[theprunetang]

Just ran in to Nurkic at The Nest on Belmont. Holy shit he is big!

 

[BlayZa]

if we could sign him and trade turner or crabbe and hope-fuckin-fully meyers + pick if needed, for a PF of any note, we'd be in a good spot

 

[Denny Crane]

Your math is off. Those three won't be making $90 million/year in 2018-19. Dame and C.J. will be making a combined $53,737,455. Even if you max out Nurk, that's about $80 million, not $90 million. The projected tax threshold for the 2018-19 season is $130 million. That leaves us $50 million for the other 12 spots. I suspect at least three of those will be rookie contract, end of bench guys making about $1 million/year. That leaves $47 million for 9 players, over $5.2 million/year each for guys who will actually play (10 deep rotation + two to cover injuries). Some will make more, a couple guys in the $10 - $12 million range and some will make less. It's doable. And that gets us to paying zero in taxes. If Paul's willing to pay some tax, it get's even easier to fill out the roster. We just can't afford to have bench players making $18.5 million, like Allen Crabbe.

The key to picking up cheap ring chasers is to be on the verge of contention. As you note CLE was never a free agent destination until they became a contender. Now guys are tripping over each other to get paid the league minimum for the privilege of landing one of those limited ring chaser roster spots.

BNM

Due to the new CBA, Nurk will make more than $27M. That's year 2 of Nurk's contract. Year 3 is over $90M.

But my math is truly off!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

View attachment 13526

Due to the new CBA, Nurk will make more than $27M.

But my math is truly off!

You're pointing to 2019-20 numbers, but BNM was referencing 2018-19. Tough to have a reasonable discussion if you're in two different places.

That said, the cap projection for 2018 (when a Nurkic max deal would begin) is currently 103M, which would correlate to a BRI of 230.22M. Due to the lower cap calc for salaries (42.14% vs 44.74%), Nurk's max salary for 2018-19 would be 24.25M, so his salary at max for 2019-20 (factoring in the 7.5% raise) would be 26.07M. Coupled with the Dame/CJ salaries you show for 2019-20, their combined salary for 2019-20 would be 83.43M.

So yes, your math is off.

 

[tlongII]

^Alternative Facts^

 

[Boob-No-More]

But my math is truly off!

Those three won't be making $90 million/year in 2018-19.

So is your reading comprehension.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

So is your reading comprehension.

BNM

To be fair, he originally said "two years from now", which could easily be intended to refer the the beginning of the league year that commences two years and 3 months from now, or the 2019-20 season. 18-19 was your (completely reasonable) assumption, not his assertion.

However, now that things have been clarified (you're welcome), now you can argue about the same things instead of different ones.

 

[Denny Crane]

So is your reading comprehension.

BNM

We're still facing the $90M for 3 players situation, period.

There's not much more to say about it.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

We're still facing the $90M for 3 players situation, period.

There's not much more to say about it.

Sure--in the 2020-21 season. By that point, the cap is projected to be 120M, with a tax line at 143M, so we'll probably be OK.

To give more precise figures, with Nurk at a max deal (again, using the $103M projected salary cap for 2018), the combined salaries for Dame, CJ, and Nurkic will be as follows:
--2018-19: 77,991,031
--2019-20: 83,431,874
--2020-21: 88,872,718

 

[illmatic99]

We're still facing the $90M for 3 players situation, period.

There's not much more to say about it.

The same will be true for about 20 teams by then

 

[BBert]

Just ran in to Nurkic at The Nest on Belmont. Holy shit he is big!

Are you alright? Any broken bones? Contusions? How's your fretting hand?

 

[Denny Crane]

The same will be true for about 20 teams by then

Only the teams paying 3 players max contracts. I think most teams don't do that, and haven't under any BRI level.

 

[Denny Crane]

Sure--in the 2020-21 season. By that point, the cap is projected to be 120M, with a tax line at 143M, so we'll probably be OK.

To give more precise figures, with Nurk at a max deal (again, using the $103M projected salary cap for 2018), the combined salaries for Dame, CJ, and Nurkic will be as follows:
--2018-19: 77,991,031
--2019-20: 83,431,874
--2020-21: 88,872,718

http://www.nba.com/article/2016/12/14/nba-and-nbpa-reach-tentative-labor-deal

"Significant increases across the board in player contracts, including maximum salaried players"

(I think your calculations are off by several million, as Nurk may start at ~$30M 1st season)

 

[riverman]

Last thing on earth I worry about is Paul Allen's money

 

[illmatic99]

Only the teams paying 3 players max contracts. I think most teams don't do that, and haven't under any BRI level.

Just estimating here, even this upcoming summer:

GS- Steph, KD, Draymond and Klay not far behind
HOU- Harden, Anderson, Gordon, not quite 90 mil, but will get there once Harden hits free agency
UTA- Hayward, Gobert, Favors up for extension, talk of Hill nearing max and Hood coming up for an extension year after
LAC- CP, Blake, DeAndre, will they bring back JJ?
MEM- Conley, Gasol, Parsons
NOP- Cuz, Davis, Holiday

And Min, PHX, DEN will have max extensions coming up by 2020.


This is the new norm.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

http://www.nba.com/article/2016/12/14/nba-and-nbpa-reach-tentative-labor-deal

"Significant increases across the board in player contracts, including maximum salaried players"

(I think your calculations are off by several million, as Nurk may start at ~$30M 1st season)

Looking at the details on that sentence as addressed in the link, it seems to primarily apply to the 10-year-vet max salaries. You're operating under an assumption that the starting max salary for a player with 0-6 years of experience will be higher than 25% of the cap. I haven't seen anything to indicate that that is the case.

EDIT: I do see an article indicating that the lower cap figure for salary calculation that I referenced will no longer exist, so that will impact things a bit. I'll recalculate and update.

 

[Denny Crane]

Just estimating here, even this upcoming summer:

GS- Steph, KD, Draymond and Klay not far behind
HOU- Harden, Anderson, Gordon, not quite 90 mil, but will get there once Harden hits free agency
UTA- Hayward, Gobert, Favors up for extension, talk of Hill nearing max and Hood coming up for an extension year after
LAC- CP, Blake, DeAndre, will they bring back JJ?
MEM- Conley, Gasol, Parsons
NOP- Cuz, Davis, Holiday

And Min, PHX, DEN will have max extensions coming up by 2020.


This is the new norm.

Exactly. Most teams won't be doing it.

You've listed 9 out of 30.

 

[illmatic99]

Exactly. Most teams won't be doing it.

You've listed 9 out of 30.

9 of 15 in the west. Really gonna make me do this in the east?

CLE: Bron, Love, Kyrie
BOS: Thomas, Horford, and if they get a FA or Butler, they're on
TOR: Derozan and Lowry on their own will be nearly at 75 mil next summer. Add Ibaka as a near max FA and they're screwed
WSH: Wall, Beal, Porter
DET: Drummond, KCP, Jackson
CHA: Nic, Zeller, Marvin Williams, Kemba, Plumlee, MKG make up nearly 110 mil

That's 15 of 30 in just a year or so. In 20-21, the majority will be the case.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

http://www.nba.com/article/2016/12/14/nba-and-nbpa-reach-tentative-labor-deal

"Significant increases across the board in player contracts, including maximum salaried players"

(I think your calculations are off by several million, as Nurk may start at ~$30M 1st season)

Based on the additional information I found regarding max salaries being based on the actual salary cap (which explains the line you quoted about all salaries going up, including maximum salaries), here's the updated projection regarding the size of a Nurkic max (assuming the same 25% base that has existed since '99), and using the most recent cap projections I can find.



If you find fault with the calculations, feel free to specify where and why.

 

[Denny Crane]

Based on the additional information I found regarding max salaries being based on the actual salary cap (which explains the line you quoted about all salaries going up, including maximum salaries), here's the updated projection regarding the size of a Nurkic max (assuming the same 25% base that has existed since '99), and using the most recent cap projections I can find.

View attachment 13528

If you find fault with the calculations, feel free to specify where and why.

FWIW, I read an article that talked about how CJ missed out on an even bigger contract by a year due to the new CBA rules. My educated guess is that Nurk will benefit from the rule and get a bigger deal than CJ did. My assumption is Nurk gets close to $30M to start.

I don't find fault with your calculations. My ~$90M figure still looks good.

 

[Denny Crane]

Just estimating here, even this upcoming summer:

GS- Steph, KD, Draymond and Klay not far behind
HOU- Harden, Anderson, Gordon, not quite 90 mil, but will get there once Harden hits free agency
UTA- Hayward, Gobert, Favors up for extension, talk of Hill nearing max and Hood coming up for an extension year after
LAC- CP, Blake, DeAndre, will they bring back JJ?
MEM- Conley, Gasol, Parsons
NOP- Cuz, Davis, Holiday

And Min, PHX, DEN will have max extensions coming up by 2020.


This is the new norm.

Some of those guys you listed aren't MAX. Chandler Parsons, for example, is several $million less.

GSW is one of two teams (Cavs the other) who are going to pay $100M in tax with a significant chance to win the Finals.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Lock him up now and worry about everything else later. we don't get guys like this very often.

 

[Hobbesarable]

Lock him up now and worry about everything else later. we don't get guys like this very often.

Totally agree. We certainly don't get them in free agency.

 

[illmatic99]

Some of those guys you listed aren't MAX. Chandler Parsons, for example, is several $million less.

GSW is one of two teams (Cavs the other) who are going to pay $100M in tax with a significant chance to win the Finals.

If you're going to nitpick about that, then technically CJ isn't a max player either.

 

[GDiama]

Most of the players listed are not max and noone knows what they ll be in the future. Talking about our team and maxing Nurkic here. Other teams problems are their problems.

 

[illmatic99]

I'm coming around to the idea of waiting. He's got an injury history and some motivation issues. We've only seen him for 20 games.

Bump. Still on this. Recent injury reaffirms this notion.

Then again, can we get him on the cheap this year?

 

[BrianFromWA]

Then we're gonna have to ask Dame to give us a discount on his next contract. And I actually think, if anyone is going to, Dame would be the one to do it - lead by example, and hope that CJ/Nurkic follow his lead.

Dame already did. He earned the 30% "Derrick Rose" max last summer with his All-NBA teams and only took 27.5%.

 

[THE HCP]

Excuse me guys......Theo Ratliff on Line 1.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Excuse me guys......Theo Ratliff on Line 1.

Nurkic is 30?

 

[THE HCP]

Nurkic is 30?

Nurk played well after we traded for him. I remember Mr. Ratliff working his way into a huge contract after doing the same. I've been impressed with the big man, but there is no harm whatsoever waiting to see if his play continues and he isn't prone to injury.