Exclusive You prioritize the Blazers free agents

[oldfisherman]

Two stats I consider important when evaluating any player are FT% and assists to TO ratio.

In addition to being the much better 3 pt shooter, Crabbe has an edge in the Asst to TO ratio, and a big edge in FT%.

Harkless’s FT% has been hovering around his career average of .580. His best season was .594 a couple of years ago. Crabbe’s carrier FT % average is .845.

I believe a players FT% is a good indicator of his shooting ability compared to other players. Reason; all players shoot FTs under the same conditions, without defensive pressure that can affect the results.

Stats show Harkless’s shooting has not improved over four seasons. It also implies he probably has little chance of showing the big improvement that would be needed to consider him a stating caliber player. He appears to have a ceiling as a limited role player off of the bench.

Crabbe’s overall shooting has improved in his three seasons. Who knows where his ceiling is?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

During his hotstreak it seemed that most of Crabbe's jumpers rimmed in.

At the same age his numbers are virtually identical to Martell Webster.

 

[Trackjack]

If I was Myers and Harkless I would take the qualify offer to show that they are worth the big contract when they would be UFA next year. This way the ball is in there hands. Right now I wouldn't neither one a long term contract. Now Crabbe I would give him around Davis and Aminu type contract. Henderson I like I would throw out 13-15 million contract for 3 years.

 

[B-Roy]

During his hotstreak it seemed that most of Crabbe's jumpers rimmed in.

At the same age his numbers are virtually identical to Martell Webster.

Martell was a good role player with the Blazers and a starter with the Wizards before injuries took over.

 

[Draco]

Crabbe is a bad defensive player. Might be the worst of our guards and that says something with Damian. Crabbe is certainly inferior to CJ defensively. I have no idea why anyone calls him a 3 + D wing. Maybe some fans look at a players height and use that as the sole judge of defense. Crabbe fouls often, at terrible times. He's in bad defensive positions. He gambles for steals, gives up easy baskets.

Harkless is making me rethink this. I still lean towards Crabbe because he's shown glimpses of elite shooting. It might depend on who we add in free agency. If we add a great shooting wing I'd be more inclined to keep Harkless. If we add an athletic wing with suspect shooting we certainly need Crabbe. Great thing they are restricted free agents so we can keep both!

 

[H.C.]

I have real questions about Harkless.
He's played in 70 games this season however he's only logged 1240 minutes.
He looks a step faster than players he's going against, and he's doing a lot of the little things on the court right now.
Leads me to believe he has more "legs" left at this point in the season due to not having as many minutes as other players.

My question about Hendo is he's in a contract year.
Old stereotype of players in contract years is they really "get up" for them and you see a drop off in production due to getting paid. But he's not blowing last years stats out of the water like a player in a contract year would/should.

 

[H.C.]

Crabbe is a bad defensive player. Might be the worst of our guards and that says something with Damian. Crabbe is certainly inferior to CJ defensively. I have no idea why anyone calls him a 3 + D wing. Maybe some fans look at a players height and use that as the sole judge of defense. Crabbe fouls often, at terrible times. He's in bad defensive positions. He gambles for steals, gives up easy baskets.

Harkless is making me rethink this. I still lean towards Crabbe because he's shown glimpses of elite shooting. It might depend on who we add in free agency. If we add a great shooting wing I'd be more inclined to keep Harkless. If we add an athletic wing with suspect shooting we certainly need Crabbe. Great thing they are restricted free agents so we can keep both!

CJ v Crabbe
http://www.basketball-reference.com...rabbal01&y2=2016&p2=mccolcj01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

Lillard v Crabbe
http://www.basketball-reference.com...rabbal01&y2=2016&p2=lillada01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

The stats don't really back you up here. Nor does the eye test.
Yes he makes mistakes at not great times but at worse he's on the same level as both cj/lillard according to all defensive stats.
The eye test also puts him in the right position defensively more often than not. It's just easier to remember the bad, than the good.

For the heck of it I'll post Henderson v Crabbe too.
http://www.basketball-reference.com...rabbal01&y2=2016&p2=hendege02&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

 

[Scalma]

I agree. Crabbe is solid defensively. He does tend to make stupid fouls, especially on three point attempts, but I have a hard time blaming a guy for being aggressive defensively.

He'll get better/smarter with more experience. I hope.

 

[B-Roy]

Crabbe is a fairly average defender. He's not good and he's not bad. He's young and he makes mistakes, but there's no way he's worse than Damian (LOL) or CJ (lol).

 

[HolyBackboard]

During his hotstreak it seemed that most of Crabbe's jumpers rimmed in.

At the same age his numbers are virtually identical to Martell Webster.

Been saying Crabbe reminded me a lot of Marty during our podcast throughout the year. All the talent to be an above-average starting 2, but just too inconsistent. I wouldn't break the bank for AC.

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

My order of importance is:

Harkless, Crabbe, Roberts, Leonard, Henderson

I see Harkless as a potential future starting SF. At the very least an important key reserve player next year and beyond.
I see Crabbe as a very nice SG/SF wing and another key reserve. I hope he doesn't get a crazy offer from someone and stays with us for $7-9M/year.
I also really like Roberts as our emergency / alternative Point guard. Good value.

I am not convinced that ML will become a better player than he is. He lacks basic instincts about the game. He has a wonderful 3pt shot and is a good rebounder.
I really like Henderson's game but feel like he still wishes to be a starter somewhere and that's not here. Happy to have him back for a reasonable contract $6-$8/year.

I hope Olshey puts all his energy and money into a starting level free-agent first. Some names I like are; Durant, DeRozen and HBarnes. If CJ is pushed to the bench by DeRozen, then the need for resigning Crabbe or Henderson is negated IMO. Likewise, if a FA Big is brought in to start....ML is probably expendable.