Zach Collins Post-ASG

[BrianFromWA]

1) Zach has almost become a "solid NBA player," and I'm hopeful he can get there by the time the playoffs start.
Right now, he's still inconsistent.

2) His comfort level has clearly increased, and that's been huge.

3) He meshes well with Ed Davis.

4) I've been saying all along that he's a 2-way player, and I think we're starting to see that. In particular, I
think he's become a solid 3 and D player.... which is exactly what you want when you have stars like Dame and
CJ on the team already.

5) He still has weaknesses, and the refs still hate him, but it's fun watching him improve.

6) Depending on what happens in the offseason, it's reasonable he becomes a starter midseason next year.

7) His PER is still only at about 8, but I honestly don't know if that's a low usage thing or not.

Here's a good rollup of the math-with-letters part of PER.

In three careful examinations of PER, we find that PER benefits players on teams that pass well, make more than 2.5 times as many field goals than free throws, and tend to gather more offensive rebounds than defensive rebounds. We also identified that PER heavily benefits volume shooters and if they manage to be at minimal terrible shooters, that can use that to inflate their numbers to look better than their All-Star and All-NBA quality peers.

This doesn’t show that players with high PER are terrible, however. What we do say is take this measure with a grain of salt and surround it with qualifying metrics. We quickly see that this measure favors perimeter shooters, as well as poor free throw shooters who score a sizable amount of points from the field. The above explanations capture these rumblings.

In general, Zach has a few things going against him having a high PER:
1) He's not a volume shooter.
2) He's on the Blazers (no kidding, A/FGM ratio is decent part of the makeup of PER. Someone on the Warriors will have a higher PER than the Blazers, if every single stat stayed the exact same.)
3) He's usually on the floor with an exceptional rebounder, especially an exceptional offensive rebounder.
4) He dug himself a hole early in the year and it's going to take an extended run of good "stats" play to bring him back to him mean. Even now he's at 34% from 3 for the year, which while not stellar, makes it a worthy shot (and trending upward quickly).
(he does, however, shoot from the perimeter a bunch and doesn't get a lot of fouls called. So that removes one particular downward-forcing function. But not nearly enough to overcome the others)

If I were a GM or talent evaluator, I'd note those particular aspects of Zach's game and how PER wouldn't be the best wrap-up stat for him. Now, I'd also look at that to find diamonds-in-the-rough on other teams ("what do you mean, a first for Royce O'Neal? His PER is only 11--hee hee") and use it against more Front Offices that talk a good analytics game but don't really understand it. (There are more than a few of these)

 

[Hoopguru]

Davis reminds me somewhat of Ben Wallace and what he did for the Pistons. And he was a player that got better with age, I see that with Davis too.
That wrap around pass last night in the middle of a scrum was amazing too. He's a Warrior and seems to be a great person!

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Here's a good rollup of the math-with-letters part of PER.

In general, Zach has a few things going against him having a high PER:
1) He's not a volume shooter.
2) He's on the Blazers (no kidding, A/FGM ratio is decent part of the makeup of PER. Someone on the Warriors will have a higher PER than the Blazers, if every single stat stayed the exact same.)
3) He's usually on the floor with an exceptional rebounder, especially an exceptional offensive rebounder.
4) He dug himself a hole early in the year and it's going to take an extended run of good "stats" play to bring him back to him mean. Even now he's at 34% from 3 for the year, which while not stellar, makes it a worthy shot (and trending upward quickly).
(he does, however, shoot from the perimeter a bunch and doesn't get a lot of fouls called. So that removes one particular downward-forcing function. But not nearly enough to overcome the others)

If I were a GM or talent evaluator, I'd note those particular aspects of Zach's game and how PER wouldn't be the best wrap-up stat for him. Now, I'd also look at that to find diamonds-in-the-rough on other teams ("what do you mean, a first for Royce O'Neal? His PER is only 11--hee hee") and use it against more Front Offices that talk a good analytics game but don't really understand it. (There are more than a few of these)

great post, thanks. I think his December numbers are really hurting his efficiency numbers. I'll look into this.

 

[dviss1]

I'd like to see something like 3/27 for Ed and 4/44 for Nurk.

You really think we should pay Butters more than Ed?

Ed AT LEAST deserves a Meyers type deal.

 

[dviss1]

Davis reminds me somewhat of Ben Wallace and what he did for the Pistons. And he was a player that got better with age, I see that with Davis too.
That wrap around pass last night in the middle of a scrum was amazing too. He's a Warrior and seems to be a great person!

Great call. I think big Eddie is better offensively though. He's a low-key GREAT/Intelligent passer.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't think you can use Summer of '16 numbers (anywhere in the NBA, really) to justify contracts going forward. Or else where does it stop?
Ed: "I'd like to get a 4/65M contract, please."
NO: "Ed, we love you, we'd love you to stay, but we can't possibly pay you that"
Ed: "Timofey Mosgov---dude can't even spell his first name right, much less play anything close to me--got 4/64M. I'm better than him. I'll give you a hometown discount and only go 1M higher over 4 years."
NO: "Um, Ed..."
Ed: "What, you don't think I'm better than MOZGOV?!"

 

[Wizard Mentor]

As detailed in a previous thread, Zach had a very good January after starting the season poorly.
He then reverted to a poor February. However, post-ASG (which includes last 3 games of Feb.),
he's back on track, having finished TWO games now. Here are his numbers post-ASG:

8 Games (148 min)
FG: 19-37 = 51.4%
3FG: 6-14 = 42.9%
FT: 5-6 = 83%
Reb: 37 (9.0/36 min, hard to assess because he plays with Davis who is a monster rebounder)

Considering his defensive prowess, these numbers are very solid. I'm extremely optimistic.

Zach Collins 2018 (Jan 1 - present)

21 Games, 531 min (25.3 mpg)
FG: 58-136 = 42.6%
3FG: 20-57 = 35.1%
FT: 13-17 = 76.4%

Contrast this with, for example, Kyle Kuzma (whole year)
FG: .448
3FG: .365
FT: .694

 

[Hoopguru]

I don't think you can use Summer of '16 numbers (anywhere in the NBA, really) to justify contracts going forward. Or else where does it stop?
Ed: "I'd like to get a 4/65M contract, please."
NO: "Ed, we love you, we'd love you to stay, but we can't possibly pay you that"
Ed: "Timofey Mosgov---dude can't even spell his first name right, much less play anything close to me--got 4/64M. I'm better than him. I'll give you a hometown discount and only go 1M higher over 4 years."
NO: "Um, Ed..."
Ed: "What, you don't think I'm better than MOZGOV?!"

No: Ed we will give a five year contract at 68M. You can stay put in a city that loves you and even have a shot a championship.
Ed: sounds good to me I'll have my agent are to it.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Zach Collins 2018 (Jan 1 - present)

21 Games, 531 min (25.3 mpg)
FG: 58-136 = 42.6%
3FG: 20-57 = 35.1%
FT: 13-17 = 76.4%

Contrast this with, for example, Kyle Kuzma (whole year)
FG: .448
3FG: .365
FT: .694

One would hope the 10th pick in a loaded draft would perform better than the 27th pick.

 

[rotary111]

Is there a stat for being a gamer?

Zach just trots back up the floor whether he hits a 3 or gets a block etc. His facial expressions don't change much, like he's been here before. It doesn't seem to matter if it's the start of a game against a bad team or the end of the 4th against the reigning champs. He's just not afraid of the moment. That kind of poise and composure at his age is what impresses me the most. Add in his work ethic and that he seems to fit in with the culture the front office is building and we have a home run at the 10th pick for this team. I could care less about his stats at this point. I'm looking at his body language and how he is adjusting to playing in a mans league as a 20 year old who hasn't grown into his body quite yet.

Side note.
I thought that Draymond guarding him out at the 3 point line really opened up the key for us last night. Zach held his own against a defensive machine last night. Ed is the perfect big brother for Zach right now.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

One would hope the 10th pick in a loaded draft would perform better than the 27th pick.

If one were an idiot, all they would look at is draft position and shooting stats.

 

[Mediocre Man]

If one were an idiot, all they would look at is draft position and shooting stats.

Agree

 

[RR7]

Side note.
I thought that Draymond guarding him out at the 3 point line really opened up the key for us last night. Zach held his own against a defensive machine last night. Ed is the perfect big brother for Zach right now.

I think that Draymond thought he was going to be able to feast on Zach, and that he was quickly going to be able to get into the rook's head. Almost like what Garnett would try to do to rookies(on a lesser extent, no barking on the ground). And was likely surprised to find Zach didn't completely wilt when pressed up high by him.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I think that Draymond thought he was going to be able to feast on Zach, and that he was quickly going to be able to get into the rook's head. Almost like what Garnett would try to do to rookies(on a lesser extent, no barking on the ground). And was likely surprised to find Zach didn't completely wilt when pressed up high by him.

Agree.

Draymon actually had nice things to say about the Blazers after the game:

Can the Blazers challenge Golden State in a series? Inside the Warriors’ locker room, Draymond Green got that one.

“They’re always a threat,” Green said. “They have two of the best guards in the league. When you have two players like they have, they are always a threat. Mo Harkless is shooting better. [Turner] shot the hell out of the ball tonight. Ed Davis was great. They have improved, for sure, but the key is always to contain Dame and C.J. If you can do that, you can win. If you can’t do that, you have a shot at winning — but it’s not good.”

 

[SheedSoNasty]

Davis reminds me somewhat of Ben Wallace and what he did for the Pistons. And he was a player that got better with age, I see that with Davis too.
That wrap around pass last night in the middle of a scrum was amazing too. He's a Warrior and seems to be a great person!

You really should not have capitalized that word.

 

[SportsAndWhine]

7) His PER is still only at about 8, but I honestly don't know if that's a low usage thing or not

His PER was like -12 in December so it’s a matter of time more than anything.

 

[Rhal]

I would give Ed a little more than what they gave Meyers and Hark, or at least the same. (What's an extra mil in the grand scheme of things.

I'm not sure we can afford to give Ed anywhere close to that. Nurk will get more then Ed, as he should since he is younger with much more upside then Ed and imo better then Ed atm as well, and i'm not sure Nurkic will get a contract bigger then Meyers or Hark from anyone except us.

 

[SIeepwalker]

He's a Warrior and seems to be a great person!

Nope, he's a Blazer and it better stay that way !

 

[Denny Crane]

The blazers resign the Nurk unless someone out there gives him the max. There is no question about it

I don't think the money is going to matter. Re-signing him is going to certainly put us into the LT by a lot. Losing him would be a significant loss. The better we do this season, the more pressure there is to not only keep the roster as intact as possible, but to add key pieces to it, where possible.

Collins would be 25 when a 5 year Nurk contract ended; Nurk would be 28. FWIW. Not a bad problem to have.

Davis and Collins are an excellent PF/C combo off the bench in the meantime.

Yeah, I think we should re-sign Ed Davis, too.

 

[SportsAndWhine]

Zach has been really good in the post ASG games.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I'm not sure we can afford to give Ed anywhere close to that. Nurk will get more then Ed, as he should since he is younger with much more upside then Ed and imo better then Ed atm as well, and i'm not sure Nurkic will get a contract bigger then Meyers or Hark from anyone except us.

I am not sure we can afford not to. He is as important as Nurk is at the moment, probably around the 3rd or 4th most important player on the team. (Top 5 for sure)

Sure Nurk has more upside and needs to be re-signed too, but it's not like he showed a lot of improvement from last year. I personally believe Nurk will improve, but we can't slight Ed by not giving him "anywhere close" to what Hark or Meyers make.

 

[handiman]

His PER was like -12 in December so it’s a matter of time more than anything.

Is there a PER by month recorded anywhere? I imagine Zach's chart would show a pretty steep incline, aside from struggling a bit in Feb.

 

[Rhal]

I am not sure we can afford not to. He is as important as Nurk is at the moment, probably around the 3rd or 4th most important player on the team. (Top 5 for sure)

Sure Nurk has more upside and needs to be re-signed too, but it's not like he showed a lot of improvement from last year. I personally believe Nurk will improve, but we can't slight Ed by not giving him "anywhere close" to what Hark or Meyers make.

Before renouncing players there is a total of 5 teams with over 5m in capspace and only one team with over 10. I don't think it'll be a slight to Ed to give him close to 10m a year, if it is we can just tell him to go find his deal and we will offer him the same, I just don't see a team giving ED a lot of money this summer http://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2018/.

 

[blue9]

He's playing well and has earned his minutes.
I still don't start him. Let him continue to play the role he's used to and don't ask the rookie to do too much.

As much as I want Aminu OUT of the starting line-up, I agree...for now. However, immediately after the season ends Zach becomes our starting PF.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Before renouncing players there is a total of 5 teams with over 5m in capspace and only one team with over 10. I don't think it'll be a slight to Ed to give him close to 10m a year, if it is we can just tell him to go find his deal and we will offer him the same, I just don't see a team giving ED a lot of money this summer http://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2018/.

10 million a year is what I was saying. You said not anywhere close to that......

 

[Scalma]

No way Ed Davis gets 10m a year. Most teams will be over the cap, especially teams that would want Davis (playoff squads)

Even $8m is a stretch. That’s what guys like Tyreke Evans should go for.

 

[joeBlazers]

If we could just transfer ET money to Nurk ... We have 2 more years of ET after this season?

 

[Pinwheel1]

No way Ed Davis gets 10m a year. Most teams will be over the cap, especially teams that would want Davis (playoff squads)

Even $8m is a stretch. That’s what guys like Tyreke Evans should go for.

OK good. So then is Nurk in the same boat?

 

[Scalma]

OK good. So then is Nurk in the same boat?

Nurk is younger so that could interest a rebuilding team. I can’t see Portland not matching though, regardless what he gets. I don’t think he’ll get more than $15m per which is a bargain when you consider Steven Adams makes 25.

 

[blue9]

10 million a year is what I was saying. You said not anywhere close to that......

If nobody else is offering Ed $10M we shouldn't either - can't base his pay off the bad contracts of his teammates. I think his current contract is pretty much ideal. He should get an Aminu-level deal (slight raise). I'd say we should keep Ed/Bazz at a combined $15M or less. Then look to dump Aminu for a future pick so that only one of the Ed/Bazz contracts impacts payroll.