Zach Lowe's annual NBA tiers

[illmatic99]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

Utah? He did the same thing last year when he had them second in the west, while putting us 9th.

Yup, for the second straight year I'm doubting the Blazers. I'm a moron, obviously. They have a rock-solid culture, a great coach, and one of those scoring stars who pulls even bad teams -- and this is far from a bad team -- toward .500. I didn't hate their offseason makeover, either. They lost size and defensive versatility effectively swapping Al-Farouq Aminu and Maurice Harkless for Kent Bazemore and more Rodney Hood, but I can't blame them after watching Aminu and Harkless brick wide-open 3s in the playoffs every season.

Hassan Whiteside in a contract year is as good a placeholder for Jusuf Nurkic as Portland was going to snare. Zach Collins is solid at both frontcourt positions, and the Blazers are confident Anfernee Simons is ready for major minutes. They have the means to make a win-now trade (or two) in February.

Their perimeter defense is a little squishy. I don't trust Whiteside. Can he make enough quick-hitting reads when opponents double Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum? Whiteside is boasting about triple-doubles, but he averaged 1.2 dimes per game last season.

The Blazers are good. Their placement here is more about life in the West, especially because ...

He put two other conference finalists from last year in our same category of borderline playoff teams.

 

[andalusian]

One of these years he is bound to be right

 

[e_blazer]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

Utah? He did the same thing last year when he had them second in the west, while putting us 9th.



He put two other conference finalists from last year in our same category of borderline playoff teams.

I get that it's the West and every team is loaded, but just once I'd like one of these prognosticators to be accurate about the changes the Blazers made this summer. While it's technically correct to say that Harkless and Aminu were replaced by Bazemore and Hood, the truth is that Aminu is being replaced by Zach Collins...a much more talented player. And, while it's true that the Blazers will have the assets to make a trade before the deadline, I'd also like to hear someone talk about the possibility that they keep Whiteside for the entire season and how in the hell is anyone in the West going to deal with a two-headed monster center rotation of Nurk and Hassan.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I get that it's the West and every team is loaded, but just once I'd like one of these prognosticators to be accurate about the changes the Blazers made this summer. While it's technically correct to say that Harkless and Aminu were replaced by Bazemore and Hood, the truth is that Aminu is being replaced by Zach Collins...a much more talented player.

I don't even think it's technically correct to say that Harkless and Aminu were replaced by Bazemore and Hood. Hood replaced Harkless, sure, but Bazemore replaced Turner, not Aminu.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I think this article sucks... Yes, part of it is the Blazers but his reasoning is so inconsistent.

 

[wizenheimer]

I get that it's the West and every team is loaded, but just once I'd like one of these prognosticators to be accurate about the changes the Blazers made this summer. While it's technically correct to say that Harkless and Aminu were replaced by Bazemore and Hood, the truth is that Aminu is being replaced by Zach Collins...a much more talented player.

like the platypus said, right now it's looking like Bazemore is replacing Tuner.

But maybe that's not even the way it will be. We just don't know yet how the roles will shake out. Will Simons fit the role of Curry? That wasn't a big role last year. Curry only averaged 19 minutes and missed 10 games. From all the hype, is 19 minutes enough for "the most gifted player Olshey has ever drafted" and the "best young guard in the NBA"? And if Bazemore takes Turner's minutes, will Hezonja fill Turner's role as a secondary facilitator? How will those minutes be distributed then?

Lowe's take seems a little lazy; at the same time, if you aren't wearing rose-colored glasses projecting how this new Blazer team will perform compared to how it has over the last 3 seasons does generate a lot of questions. And an NBA season is unforgiving of unresolved questions

by the way, I'd agree that Zach has a lot more upside than Aminu has ever had. But much of that upside may not be showing up till Zach is 23 or 24 or 25. Aminu was a better player last season most of the time. And we're talking about this season, not seasons 2 or 3 years away. Zach will be thrust into a starting role and he'll be going against 1st unit guys, not 2nd unit guys. As a starting PF he's going to be forced to defend a lot more starting level players with perimeter skills. And he's going to spend more time switched onto SF's. Assuming he's going to be an upgrade over Aminu, this season, may be a bit unrealistic. He shouldn't be a downgrade though unless he can't solve his foul issue and remains a weak rebounder

And, while it's true that the Blazers will have the assets to make a trade before the deadline, I'd also like to hear someone talk about the possibility that they keep Whiteside for the entire season and how in the hell is anyone in the West going to deal with a two-headed monster center rotation of Nurk and Hassan.

well, they can't play together. It would be a rotation. And neither player is dominant enough offensively in the paint to consistently punish teams like Shaq or Artis Gilmore or McHale did. Besides that, NBA rules have kind of marginalized traditional C's at the same time offenses have evolved 'past' them. The way a lot of teams will deal with Hassan/Nurk is to run smaller faster lineups and create mismatch after mismatch.

I'd be curious to see how many C's are still in games that are close in the last 5 minutes. A lot of times anymore it's just 10 perimeter players on the floor. Guys who can handles the ball and be dependable at the FT line

 

[Rastapopoulos]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

Utah?

Utah swapped Rubio for Michael Conley. I'm a Rubio fan but that's a HUGE upgrade. Plus they added Indiana's best scorer and Ed Davis (which means they have the TOP TWO NBA PLAYERS in Defensive Real Plus-Minus). They are EASILY better than us.

 

[HolyBackboard]

Maybe it's because he always doubts us or when he compliments the team or Lillard it's in a backhanded manner, but I'm really not a huge Zach Lowe guy.

 

[Scalma]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

Utah? He did the same thing last year when he had them second in the west, while putting us 9th.



He put two other conference finalists from last year in our same category of borderline playoff teams.

Portland is who the media pretends Utah is every year.

And Lowe is massively overrated.

 

[illmatic99]

Utah swapped Rubio for Michael Conley. I'm a Rubio fan but that's a HUGE upgrade. Plus they added Indiana's best scorer and Ed Davis (which means they have the TOP TWO NBA PLAYERS in Defensive Real Plus-Minus). They are EASILY better than us.

They say this every year. And taking the ball out of Mitchell's hands doesn't necessarily seem like the best idea.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

They say this every year. And taking the ball out of Mitchell's hands doesn't necessarily seem like the best idea.

Yes it does He's pretty inefficient. And shooting was their one weakness and Bogdanovic is a GREAT shooter.

Conley may be the most underrated great player in the league. Him or Drue Holiday. People don't value defense as much as flash, I guess - Conley is easily better than Mitchell.

 

[illmatic99]

Dame vs Conley -- Dame
CJ vs Mitchell -- even
Hood vs Bogdanovic -- even, inflated #s with the late season shot increase in Indy.
Collins vs Ingles -- even
Whiteside vs Gobert -- Gobert

Then the so- called depth

Simons vs Mudiay -- meh
Bazemore vs Exum -- Baze
Mario vs O'Neale -- even
Tolliver vs Green -- even
Gasol vs Ed -- Ed

whoop de effing doo. I'm not in the least bit concerned about Utah. Who gives a damn about Ed's RPM when he plays 15 mpg?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Yes it does He's pretty inefficient. And shooting was their one weakness and Bogdanovic is a GREAT shooter.

Conley may be the most underrated great player in the league. Him or Drue Holiday. People don't value defense as much as flash, I guess - Conley is easily better than Mitchell.

Interesting that you cite defense in regard to their comparisons, when Conley's DRPM is farther below zero than Mitchell's is above.

 

[B-Roy]

Interesting that you cite defense in regard to their comparisons, when Conley's DRPM is farther below zero than Mitchell's is above.

RPM can't be compared across positions. If you're comparing RPM, you need to compare Conley to other PGs and Mitchell to other SGs.

 

[handiman]

The one and only interesting thing about Utah pertains to their back court: Conley is in the conversation of most underrated players and Mitchell is in the conversation for most overrated.

 

[illmatic99]

RPM can't be compared across positions. If you're comparing RPM, you need to compare Conley to other PGs and Mitchell to other SGs.

It also says Danny Green and Iguodala were the best SGs in the league last year.

 

[BlazerBeav]

Some people here continue to overestimate the value of Ed Davis. The man could only get $5 million per year.

 

[B-Roy]

It also says Danny Green and Iguodala were the best SGs in the league last year.

RPM is somewhat a measure of a player's role on a team as well. So Danny Green and Iguodala may have had high RPMs because they were so good in their specific role on their specific team. Whenever you try to compress a player's impact into a single number stat you're bound to run into issues.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

RPM can't be compared across positions. If you're comparing RPM, you need to compare Conley to other PGs and Mitchell to other SGs.

So I'm instead supposed to point out that Conley's DRPM was 37th out of 87 PGs, while Mitchell's was 18th out of 111 SGs?

Kinda paints the same picture either way.

 

[illmatic99]

And Rubio was 11th.

Go figure.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Yes it does He's pretty inefficient. And shooting was their one weakness and Bogdanovic is a GREAT shooter.

Conley may be the most underrated great player in the league. Him or Drue Holiday. People don't value defense as much as flash, I guess - Conley is easily better than Mitchell.

Just like the new Blazers, we really don't know yet how Conley and Mitchell will mesh together. Bogdanovic can flat out shoot so he fits with any team IMO. Mitchell however plays best creating offense with the ball in his hands. How will that effect Conley who is also most effective with the ball in his hands? We assume they will be compatible, but I can't say we know that for sure. My guess is that they are a good tandem but not a great tandem.

 

[hoopsjock]

Bogdanovic is a great fit on offense but if you get Gobert away from the rim playing him at the PF is going to lower their paint defense significantly. Their starting lineup is great but their bench is really questionable. They lost Rubio, Favors, Crowder, and Korver who all played a big role last year. If they have injuries to their starting lineup they are going to be in big trouble.

 

[illmatic99]

Bogdanovic is a great fit on offense but if you get Gobert away from the rim playing him at the PF is going to lower their paint defense significantly. Their starting lineup is great but their bench is really questionable. They lost Rubio, Favors, Crowder, and Korver who all played a big role last year. If they have injuries to their starting lineup they are going to be in big trouble.

But wait! Jeff Green is gonna step in and finally fulfill the promise he had as an elite two way player on his 15th team.

 

[kjironman1]

Totally following the national media line. Both LA teams with Philly and Milwaukee then he added Utah which could be right. Then just so not to disrespect Harden and Westbrook he throws them in there with a slight nod to Jokic as well.
Saying the east stinks again doesn't take a lot of thought.
When you follow with a third of the league as Borderline playoff teams it's tough to be wrong.

Does he get paid for this?

You can get much deeper and more specific analysis from S2 and a number of different outlets.

Does he realize Durant is out this year?

 

[theprunetang]

I'm still not seeing why the pundits think the Lakers are legit contenders. They have a Big 2 and then a pretty mediocre squad surrounding them. Not swayed, especially with AD's injury history and Lebron's age.

 

[B-Roy]

Hood vs Bogdanovic -- even, inflated #s with the late season shot increase in Indy.

Hood has never played a season with a higher TS% than Bogdonavic's worst season. Bogdonavic is at a career 59% and was 61% last year. Hood is a career 54% and his career best was 55% in the year he was given a ton of shots with Utah. Given both player's main skill is scoring, I'm not sure how you can argue this is even. The contracts also speak for themselves.

I think the thought process with Utah is --> They had one of the best defenses in the league last year but couldn't play offense because they only had one creator --> They upgraded on offense significantly --> They will be able to maintain their defense and improve their offense --> Their point differential was really good.

I can see the logic, but I think they'll disappoint relative to expectations.

 

[illmatic99]

Hood has never played a season with a higher TS% than Bogdonavic's worst season. Bogdonavic is at a career 59% and was 61% last year. Hood is a career 54% and his career best was 55% in the year he was given a ton of shots with Utah. Given both player's main skill is scoring, I'm not sure how you can argue this is even. The contracts also speak for themselves.

I think the thought process with Utah is --> They had one of the best defenses in the league last year but couldn't play offense because they only had one creator --> They upgraded on offense significantly --> They will be able to maintain their defense and improve their offense --> Their point differential was really good.

I can see the logic, but I think they'll disappoint relative to expectations.

Let's see a full season of Hood with this kinda spacing-- i'm prognosticating that this impact will be similar to Bogdanovic.

And the contract thing is essentially meaningless. Evan Turner got a 70 mil deal when he didn't deserve one. Nurkic makes half of what other centers of his caliber make.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Here's my problem with the Jazz. Conley I love him as a player but the one thing he's most consistent on is not being available to play. He has averaged 63 games a year for his career. He'll be 32 this year he's on the downward part of his career as a PG. I would not trust him to be healthy at this point. I also don't think he's as much of an upgrade over rubio as people think. Rubio was a very solid PG last couple of years.

 

[B-Roy]

Let's see a full season of Hood with this kinda spacing-- i'm prognosticating that this impact will be similar to Bogdanovic.

And the contract thing is essentially meaningless. Evan Turner got a 70 mil deal when he didn't deserve one. Nurkic makes half of what other centers of his caliber make.

I'm not sure where the basis of this argument comes from. The Pacers did not have good spacing either and were one of the worst 3 point shooting teams last year, they were 29th in makes per game, worse than the Jazz. Despite this, Bogdonavic still shot nearly 50% from the field and 42% from three. Hood has never sniffed that type of efficiency. And re: the contract issue, Bogdonavic and Hood were signed in the same off-season, play the same position and role on a team, and against the same competing bids. You cannot compare Turner and Nurkic when the context is entirely different. I know Hood "turned down more" to come back to Portland, but if he had an offer near the guaranteed money Bogdonavic had there is a very good chance he would be gone.

 

[hoopsjock]

Hood has never played a season with a higher TS% than Bogdonavic's worst season. Bogdonavic is at a career 59% and was 61% last year. Hood is a career 54% and his career best was 55% in the year he was given a ton of shots with Utah. Given both player's main skill is scoring, I'm not sure how you can argue this is even. The contracts also speak for themselves.

I think the thought process with Utah is --> They had one of the best defenses in the league last year but couldn't play offense because they only had one creator --> They upgraded on offense significantly --> They will be able to maintain their defense and improve their offense --> Their point differential was really good.

I can see the logic, but I think they'll disappoint relative to expectations.

I agree with you but Hood's TS% in the playoffs was over 60%. So if that ends up being what he does this year then this argument is a lot closer.