Zach Lowe's Preseason Deep Dive

[e_blazer]

I think Utah would be better, also. I think waiving Briscoe moved us from 2 seed to 4th seed in my prediction. I think not bringing a dependable backup guard and waiving the only player close to it is rediculous. Sorry to repeat myself, can't help it. I think if we have to play Turner at guard as many minutes we play him at guard the worst we would be, and I'm hoping at least Pat gets real playing time. About the other teams, GS is for real, the other super teams? Houston was good not just because of Harden, they had very good role players, they still do, adding Chris Paul to the mix is nice but idk if moves them ahead of any recent Chris Paul team. OKC I think would bust, not out of the playoffs bust but not that good. Denver I think would be more or less OKC level. Minnesota is a question mark, could be fringe playoffs or higher, the Lakers would be much better, they made an awesome draft in Ball and Kuzma, the Kings I think would be better than expected and so are the Clippers

Did it occur to you that keeping a roster spot open until an experienced and effective backup guard becomes available via trade might be better than locking up that spot with a guy who’s sort of decent?

 

[SIeepwalker]

I think waiving Briscoe moved us from 2 seed to 4th seed in my prediction.

 

[Boob-No-More]

All of the things you say about Denver applied to them in the second half of last year (except they didn't have Millsap) and yet they had the most efficient offense IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. If you don't like that example of Denver hagiography, you'll hate this one:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20967758/how-nuggets-copying-warriors-championship-model-nba

Yep, you're right. I don't like it. The author makes lots of ridiculous comparisons, and almost completely ignores defense. He does mention that GSW has been a top 5 defensive team the last three seasons, but no mention that DEN had the second worst defense in the league last season.

He claims Gary Harris has the potential to develop into and elite 2-way 3 and D shooting, like Klay Thompson, but then goes on to describe Harris as 3" shorter than Thompson and one of the worst defensive shooting guards in the league last season. Evidently Harris possesses the unique potential to grow 3" and suddenly transform from one of the worst defenders at his position into one of the best.

Where is DEN's rim protection and their DPOY candidate? They have neither. Where is DEN's elite, record breaking 3-point shooting? The GSW team he is comparing this years Nuggets against led the league in 3FG at .403, and even before adding Bogut and before Green emerged as a perennial DPOY candidate, that GSW team ranked 12th in team defense and 4th in OPP FG% at .439. This DEN team, that the author claims is the next GSW was 11th in the league in 3FG% at .368, 29th in team defense and 29th in OPP% at .477. Those numbers alone make his comparison a complete joke.

In fact, using his exact same "model" 2017-18 POR is a better match for 2012-13 (multiple potential future all stars taken without a top 5 pick, key player acquired via trade, etc.). Plus POR is a better 3-point shooting team than DEN, and as bad as POR's defense was last season, it was still light years ahead of DEN's (12th in the league in OPP FG% at .455 and 9th in the league in BLKs, compared to DEN at 29th in the league in OPP FG% and 27th in the league in BLKs). And POR's numbers only include 20 games with Nurkic.

Our late lottery first round picks, particularly Lillard and McCollum compare much more favorably to GSW's (Curry and Thompson) than DEN's (Murray and Mudiay). Really, the only good "match" in this comparison is that both DEN (Jokic)and GSW (Green) acquired a future all star with a second round pick and even that comparison falls flat when you consider the defensive side of the floor. Both are big men with the unique ability to facilitate a high powered offense, but only one is a perennial DPOY candidate.

It seemed like the author started with a predetermined conclusion and the attempted to massage the data to support that conclusion.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

He's the next Taureen Green. He owes us 3 - 4 wins and that could be the difference between the 2nd seed and the 4th seed in the West this year. Damn it Neil. First TRob and now Briscoe. When will you learn!!!

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

It seemed like the author started with a predetermined conclusion and the attempted to massage the data to support that conclusion.
BNM

BAM.

 

[Blazer4ever]

He's the next Taureen Green. He owes us 3 - 4 wins and that could be the difference between the 2nd seed and the 4th seed in the West this year. Damn it Neil. First TRob and now Briscoe. When will you learn!!!

BNM

Taurean Green plays in Israel, actually the best player on a pretty successful team

 

[Boob-No-More]

I just don't understand how these writers that constantly criticize POR's defense manage to ignore the fact that DEN's defense was even worse, and by a significant margin.

Lowe got this part right:

"I am weirdly confident in the Nuggets, despite their glut of power forwards and embarrassing defense -- second worst in the league last season. The first problem compounds the second. Denver will have to shoehorn the undersized (Will Barton) and oversized/slow (Juancho Hernangomez) into wing minutes behind Wilson Chandler. Teensy lineups featuring Barton, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray hemorrhaged points, per NBA.com.

Opponents feasted on Jokic at the rim. He has lost weight, and has the smart feet to put of up more of a fight.

And right now it looks like DEN will be featuring defensive sieves Harris and Murray as their starting backcourt. Jokic may have "smart" feet, but they are still slow. And he's not the only center in the NW Division who has lost weight. No matter how much weight Jokic loses, he will never be a rim protector.

Here's what he wrote about POR's defense:

"Portland hopes to compensate by tightening a defense that sunk to 21st in points allowed per possession last season (DEN was 29th). They were much stiffer after acquiring Nurkic. They cut their foul rate dramatically, a trend that might be sustainable. Nurkic prefers to hang back against the pick-and-roll, allowing the rest of the Blazers to stick closer to shooters. Fewer rotations mean fewer reaches, bumps, and free enemy points."

POR was better on defense to begin with and now have a full season of Nurk. Yet, he has DEN ranked 5th in the West and POR ranked 11th. His conclusion seems to contradict his own data.

He seems to think DEN's offensive efficiency will overcome their "embarrassing" defense. Well guess what, DEN was a net negative in both FG% and 3FG% last season while POR was a net positive in both.

DEN 2016-17:
Team FG% = .469
OPP FG% = .477
Net FG% = -.008

Team 3FG% = .368
OPP 3FG% = .375
Net FG% = -.007

POR 2016-17:
Team FG% = .459
OPP FG% = .455
Net FG% = +.004

Team 3FG% = .375
OPP 3FG% = .370
Net FG% = +.005

The differences may seem small, but its hard to win more games than you lose when you let your opponents shoot a higher percentage than you do from everywhere on the floor. POR squeaked by at .500 with their small net positive shooting percentages. DEN, with even worse perimeter defense and no rim protection, which led to their net negative shooting, predictably finished two games below .500.

For every criticism of POR's defense, you could say the same thing about DEN's - only worse. Sure, they added a past his prime Paul Millsap. That will help some, but we will have a full season of an in shape, motivated Nurk who is just entering his prime. That will help more.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Taurean Green plays in Israel, actually the best player on a pretty successful team

Maybe Briscoe can join him there.

BNM

 

[Blazer4ever]

Maybe Briscoe can join him there.

BNM

Yes, maybe he should if that somehow helps your agenda of endless statstical analyzing

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yes, maybe he should if that somehow helps your agenda of endless statstical analyzing

My agenda is seeing the Blazers win as many games as possible.

Which is why I'm also glad to see players like Taureen Green and Thomas Robinson having "successful" careers outside of the NBA. Neither made the Blazers, or any other NBA team, more successful. Which is exactly why both are playing overseas and not in the NBA.

Stats don't always tell the whole story, but there are also times when the stats perfectly match the reality. The stats show that neither Thomas Robinson nor Taureen Green belong in the NBA. Reality agrees. You don't.

BNM

 

[SIeepwalker]

Yep, you're right. I don't like it. The author makes lots of ridiculous comparisons, and almost completely ignores defense. He does mention that GSW has been a top 5 defensive team the last three seasons, but no mention that DEN had the second worst defense in the league last season.

He claims Gary Harris has the potential to develop into and elite 2-way 3 and D shooting, like Klay Thompson, but then goes on to describe Harris as 3" shorter than Thompson and one of the worst defensive shooting guards in the league last season. Evidently Harris possesses the unique potential to grow 3" and suddenly transform from one of the worst defenders at his position into one of the best.

Where is DEN's rim protection and their DPOY candidate? They have neither. Where is DEN's elite, record breaking 3-point shooting? The GSW team he is comparing this years Nuggets against led the league in 3FG at .403, and even before adding Bogut and before Green emerged as a perennial DPOY candidate, that GSW team ranked 12th in team defense and 4th in OPP FG% at .439. This DEN team, that the author claims is the next GSW was 11th in the league in 3FG% at .368, 29th in team defense and 29th in OPP% at .477. Those numbers alone make his comparison a complete joke.

In fact, using his exact same "model" 2017-18 POR is a better match for 2012-13 (multiple potential future all stars taken without a top 5 pick, key player acquired via trade, etc.). Plus POR is a better 3-point shooting team than DEN, and as bad as POR's defense was last season, it was still light years ahead of DEN's (12th in the league in OPP FG% at .455 and 9th in the league in BLKs, compared to DEN at 29th in the league in OPP FG% and 27th in the league in BLKs). And POR's numbers only include 20 games with Nurkic.

Our late lottery first round picks, particularly Lillard and McCollum compare much more favorably to GSW's (Curry and Thompson) than DEN's (Murray and Mudiay). Really, the only good "match" in this comparison is that both DEN (Jokic)and GSW (Green) acquired a future all star with a second round pick and even that comparison falls flat when you consider the defensive side of the floor. Both are big men with the unique ability to facilitate a high powered offense, but only one is a perennial DPOY candidate.

It seemed like the author started with a predetermined conclusion and the attempted to massage the data to support that conclusion.

BNM

Couldn't agree more, the article striked me as absolutely dumb.

 

[jlprk]

It seemed like the author started with a predetermined conclusion and the attempted to massage the data to support that conclusion.

You're accusing someone of cherry-picking stats?

 

[Boob-No-More]

You're accusing someone of cherry-picking stats?

Not just cherry picking stats, contradicting their own statements. Harris is undersized and one of the worst defensive SGs in the league, but he has the potential (even the expectation) to suddenly become an "elite two way 3 and D player" ala Klay Thompson.

That's not just cherry picking stats, it's grasping at straws and a whole lot of unrealistic wishful thinking.

BNM

 

[THE HCP]

I think waiving Briscoe moved us from 2 seed to 4th seed in my prediction

WHAAAAAAAA? DID YOUR ACCOUNT GET HIJACKED BY THE JINXSPEED????? In the name of all things holy, you don't actually believe this right?

 

[Blazer4ever]

What are Thomas Robinson Points and Rebounds per 36 minutes? And my disdain with letting Briscoe isn't just about Briscoe go whom I think is a good player, but mostly because we already have a very real need for backup guards.

 

[Blazer4ever]

WHAAAAAAAA? DID YOUR ACCOUNT GET HIJACKED BY THE JINXSPEED????? In the name of all things holy, you don't actually believe this right?

Don't believe what? that we are top 4 or that we could have been top2 with Briscoe?

 

[THE HCP]

Taurean Green plays in Israel, actually the best player on a pretty successful team

And it has snowed in the desert.......

 

[THE HCP]

Maybe Briscoe can join him there.

BNM

Quality post sir.

 

[Blazer4ever]

And it has snowed in the desert.......

Nor the desert, Herzliya, a city by the mediterenian, near Tel Aviv

 

[THE HCP]

Don't believe what? that we are top 4 or that we could have been top2 with Briscoe?

A) that you believe we would ever finish 4th in this crazy deep west.....
and
B) That some random cat like that who would NEVER play, even on our team, would make such a HUGE difference.

You are saying that this Briscoe kid is that missing piece to push us past the every team out here but Golden State?

This is right up there with Jinx's infamous #64Wins prediction from last season. Man, I love my Blazers, but straight up pinwheel blinded nonsense like this amazes me.

 

[Boob-No-More]

What are Thomas Robinson Points and Rebounds per 36 minutes? And my disdain with letting Briscoe isn't just about Briscoe go whom I think is a good player, but mostly because we already have a very real need for backup guards.

Lol, now who's cherry picking stats???

Doesn't matter. Anything relatively good Thomas Robinson does on a basketball court is completely negated, and then some, by his horrible shooting, constantly losing his man on defense, unforced turnovers and stupid fouls.

Great athlete, bad basketball player (by NBA standards, which is exactly why he's no longer in the NBA).

BNM

 

[jlprk]

What are Thomas Robinson Points and Rebounds per 36 minutes? And my disdain with letting Briscoe isn't just about Briscoe go whom I think is a good player, but mostly because we already have a very real need for backup guards.

Lol, now who's cherry picking stats??? Doesn't matter. Anything relatively good Thomas Robinson does on a basketball court is completely negated, and then some, by his horrible shooting, constantly losing his man on defense, unforced turnovers and stupid fouls. Great athlete, bad basketball player (by NBA standards, which is exactly why he's no longer in the NBA).

3 days ago, Robinson was the best player in his Euroleague debut. His team upset Valencia, the best team in Spain last season. He was the best defender. Watch him get a rebound at :28 by sneaking behind his opponent during a free throw.

 

[Boob-No-More]

3 days ago, Robinson was the best player in his Euroleague debut. His team upset Valencia, the best team in Spain last season. He was the best defender. Watch him get a rebound at :28 by sneaking behind his opponent during a free throw.

The key here being "in Europe".

You know who else plays really well "in Europe" but absolutely sucks balls in the NBA? Sergio.

Some players just don't have what it takes to be successful in the NBA. Sergio is one. TRob is another.

I wish Thomas Robinson the best, in Europe, in China, or wherever else he may end up playing basketball.

BNM

 

[SportsAndWhine]

Can anyone name five players who had rough NBA starts and then came back after a stint in Europe to really make an impact in the NBA? How about three players? I'm glad Robinson can make money and play well in Europe, but what issue are we trying to address where T-Rob is the best answer?

 

[andalusian]

Can anyone name five players who had rough NBA starts and then came back after a stint in Europe to really make an impact in the NBA? How about three players? I'm glad Robinson can make money and play well in Europe, but what issue are we trying to address where T-Rob is the best answer?

Only one I can think of is Anthony Parker - and made an impact is defined as "was a good rotation player" in the NBA.

Having seen both of these guys play - I would say that Anthony Parker was 3 times the player T-Rob will ever be.

 

[SportsAndWhine]

Only one I can think of is Anthony Parker - and made an impact is defined as "was a good rotation player" in the NBA.

Having seen both of these guys play - I would say that Anthony Parker was 3 times the player T-Rob will ever be.

And I’d rather have some young undrafted buck trying to make a name for himself in roster spot 15 than reheated leftovers.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Having seen both of these guys play - I would say that Anthony Parker was 3 times the player T-Rob will ever be.

The season Anthony Parker returned to the NBA he led the league in 3FG%. After five seasons in the NBA, Thomas Robinson still struggles to make half of his FTs (.431 and .470 FT% the last two seasons).

Parker is also the GM of the Orlando Magic's G League affiliate.

One of these things is not like the other.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

3 days ago, Robinson was the best player in his Euroleague debut. His team upset Valencia, the best team in Spain last season. He was the best defender. Watch him get a rebound at :28 by sneaking behind his opponent during a free throw.

I'm happy to see Robinson succeeding at a level comparable to the last level at which he was successful (NCAA).

 

[tlongII]

A) that you believe we would ever finish 4th in this crazy deep west.....
and
B) That some random cat like that who would NEVER play, even on our team, would make such a HUGE difference.

You are saying that this Briscoe kid is that missing piece to push us past the every team out here but Golden State?

This is right up there with Jinx's infamous #64Wins prediction from last season. Man, I love my Blazers, but straight up pinwheel blinded nonsense like this amazes me.

We will finish top 4 in the West. GuarandamnSheed!

 

[julius]

POR 2016-17:
Team FG% = .459
OPP FG% = .455
Net FG% = +.004

Team 3FG% = .375
OPP 3FG% = .370
Net FG% = +.005

I thought I read that Portland allowed 41% from 3, the worst in the league? I swear thats what the "experts" said.