Spreading the Floor Doesn’t Matter Anymore
The Bible on the Blazers used to be pretty clear: if the wings hit their three-point shots, Portland’s offense was unstoppable. The lane would clear, Lillard and McCollum (and later Jusuf Nurkic) would feast inside. Even though the forwards didn’t always come through, the theory was sound and the threat present.
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Here’s the list of bad things that can happen when opponents leave Portland’s wings outside alone:
That’s it. None of them are a driving threat. With the defense playing 5-on-4 against everybody else, there’s nobody to pass to. If they miss the attempt, the defense wins. Even if they hit, it’s pretty hard for any amount of scoring from Aminu, Connaughton, and Napier to kill you. It’ll happen, but rarely.
Now here’s the list of good things that result from keeping an extra defender near the lane:
- Shut off Lillard and McCollum driving angles
- Force Nurkic to take longer making his post moves, increasing the chances he’ll turn it over
- Stop momentum on the Nurkic-Lillard high pick and roll before it starts
- Close off passing lanes
- Crowd McCollum’s mid-range shot Take away offensive rebounds, including those that might result from three-point wing misses
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It’s one thing to say, “If the Blazers are successful at this strategy (of shooting three-pointers), their offense will be scary.” It’s quite another to say, “Even if the strategy succeeds, it won’t make that much of a difference.” Portland was in the former situation last year. Now opponents dare them to do their worst with the ancillary players, knowing they’ve got the big guns muffled. One or two of the main three scorers might go off even with extra attention in the middle, but it’s unlikely all three will...especially McCollum, who wasn’t taking the highest percentage shots to begin with.
