Hey guys - dunno if anyone had seen this or not. If not (or even if you have), thought I'd share it anyway:
Source: Fez Hammerpants
Even though he was the 6th man at Syracuse this past season, Waiters emerged from a talented group of Orange perimeter players to become the most effective scorer and top perimeter defender on the team. This came after a difficult freshman year, after which he almost transferred. It’s always a good sign when a player accepts a challenge and improves his game rather than looking for greener pastures.
The most impressive number Waiters posted was a 3.0 S40 (Steals per 40 minutes). Combined with his 21.0 P40 and .529 2-point percentage this puts Waiters in some elite company among college sophomore SGs. I found only 3 other SGs who accomplished this in recent years. But in a draft that’s void of stars after the top pick, Waiters is the type of player who should intrigue teams drafting in the top 10. He’s one of the few players after Anthony Davis who has actually shown some signs of dominance at the college level. Considering his diverse set of skills and the fact that he’s just a soph with a lot of upside, Waiters is a potential all-star who shouldn’t fall out of the top 5. -----------------------------------------
Lillard’s stock has risen steadily all season. This isn’t surprising, as he has made some nice improvements in his game as a 4th-year junior. My suspicion is the dearth of PG prospects available in 2012 has teams grasping for any player who looks close to being capable and they’re overrating Lillard because of it.
I have trouble seeing Lillard as a pure PG. His top college assist rate in his 4 seasons was 4.7 A40 in his 3rd year, which was less than 300 minutes due to injury. It’s pretty rare for a player to become a top NBA PG without posting an A40 over 6.0 at least once in his college career. We’d have to go back to the 80s when Mark Price and Terry Porter overcame similarly low assist rates to become NBA stars. The best we’ve seen from high scoring/low assist college PGs recently have been gunners like Eddie House or Steve Kerr.
For a look at where Lillard stands here are some recent small college combo guards and their numbers. There have been 3 that topped 27 P40 like Lillard has and went on to pro success. I included some other recent small college players with similar stats, who weren’t as successful. As far as the numbers, he’s a mixed bag. He looks like he can handle the offense, but I doubt he’s a pure PG. The number that worries me most is the 1.7 S40. The others on the list were well over 2.0. Most guards who make a successful jump from small colleges have a dominant steal rate. It’s a statistic, along with others, that shows NBA ability. That Lillard comes up short here is a big cause for concern.
I have my doubts that Damian Lillard can become more than a 3rd or 4th guard in the NBA. At best I see him as an instant offense player off a bench who can fill it up and run the offense semi-effectively for short stretches. At worst he’s just a gunner who doesn’t have the passing or defensive chops to get consistent court time. I wouldn’t use a lottery pick on him and I certainly wouldn’t draft him if a player with the upside of Waiters or Wroten were still on the board.
