Zombie 2012 NBA Draft

[MickZagger]

Yeah mean the 5th ranked, 34-3 'Orange? Yup.

Nolan Smith was the starting PG on a national championship team.

Just sayin...

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Damn. And he wasnt even a starter

Damn, he was their best player and defender.

Thabo is clearly, CLEARLY better than Harden, too.

 

[MickZagger]

Damn, he was their best player and defender.

Thabo is clearly, CLEARLY better than Harden, too.

That excuse doesn't work in college. College is an audition for the pro's. The pro's is all about matchups.

 

[RoyToy]

How about the fact that he is 3 years younger than Lillard? Lillard has been in college for 4 years....he is 1 year younger than established stars like Westbrook\Rose...He is not going to come in an light the NBA on fire at PG right away IMO, very few PG do.....

Rivers was one of the top 2 HS prospects for a reason, he has fantastic 1v1 skills, can break down a defender and get into the paint and finish, a little unorthodox IMO, but he finishes and\or gets fouled....He will put pressure on defenders, get teams in the penalty...he can be and wants to be that go to guy...High bball IQ...He performed pretty darn well at Duke as an 18yr old freshman, given the cirumstances (lack of talent on Duke, thrust into go to role)...Give him 3 years to develop around better players and he will be a much better NBA player, his game is better suited to the NBA IMO..and he has the ability to be a go to guy and at an age 22, that Lillard is right now....

I don't think he makes it to #11, I wish he would but TOR @ #8 or NO @ #10 look like spots for him to go at....

If POR cannot get one of the Beal, Robinson, MKG or Barnes and that should be priority #1 IMO...then I would more than happy with Rivers or Waiters at #6, b\c it is looking unlikely that either will be there at #11....

So?

His career will be longer than 1 year, plus the fact the Blazers are rebuilding

Roy didn't light the NBA on fire his first year

 

[illmatic99]

It's a little different in college. You usually have your best players starting and playing more than 25mpg.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

South East, you really should interview stat guru Ed Weiland of HoopsAnalyst.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Lillard at #6 worries me. Drummond scares the bejezus out of me!

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

It's a little different in college. You usually have your best players starting and playing more than 25mpg.

It worked out well for Syracuse.

Very well.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Damn, he was their best player and defender.

Thabo is clearly, CLEARLY better than Harden, too.

Harden is playing with ball dominating westbrook and durant. What is waiters excuse?

Sounds awfully similar to marvin williams talk in college that led him being taken over cp3 and deron.

 

[illmatic99]

Some notes from nbadraft.net's draft buzz:

It's assumed that Portland will likely take Drummond (at 6) if he falls out of the top 5. But the Blazers are also extremely high on Damian Lillard and may not want to take the gamble that he's still available at 11.

Sacramento has not appeared to have a plan in place for some time now. They were unsuccesful in bringing any of the top six prospects in besides Drummond. This appears to be a place where a team could look to trade up (Houston perhaps) targeting Drummond or MKG. Their roster has talent, but lacks stability. Sacramento would not be a favorable destination for Andre Drummond.

There have been a number of reported promises. None of which are consisdered set in stone. But some more likely than others. The Phoenix promise with Dion Waiters has the most legs. But there's speculation that it could also be Portland. Then again Portland could take Waiters at 11 regardless.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

That excuse doesn't work in college. College is an audition for the pro's. The pro's is all about matchups.

Dion proved himself on a much larger stage than Lillard.

The BigSky and JuCo are on the same tier. You can't compare the two and what they did in college.

 

[RoyToy]

Dion proved himself on a much larger stage than Lillard.

The BigSky and JuCo are on the same tier. You can't compare the two and what they did in college.

Again, Nolan Smith.

20, 5, 5 guy in college

 

[MickZagger]

Dion proved himself on a much larger stage than Lillard.

The BigSky and JuCo are on the same tier. You can't compare the two and what they did in college.

What conference a player comes from has never been a hangup for me. Did you use that same metric when comparing Nolan Smith and Faried last year?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Even though he was the 6th man at Syracuse this past season, Waiters emerged from a talented group of Orange perimeter players to become the most effective scorer and top perimeter defender on the team. This came after a difficult freshman year, after which he almost transferred. It’s always a good sign when a player accepts a challenge and improves his game rather than looking for greener pastures.

The most impressive number Waiters posted was a 3.0 S40 (Steals per 40 minutes). Combined with his 21.0 P40 and .529 2-point percentage this puts Waiters in some elite company among college sophomore SGs. I found only 3 other SGs who accomplished this in recent years.

But in a draft that’s void of stars after the top pick, Waiters is the type of player who should intrigue teams drafting in the top 10. He’s one of the few players after Anthony Davis who has actually shown some signs of dominance at the college level. Considering his diverse set of skills and the fact that he’s just a soph with a lot of upside, Waiters is a potential all-star who shouldn’t fall out of the top 5.

-----------------------------------------

Lillard’s stock has risen steadily all season. This isn’t surprising, as he has made some nice improvements in his game as a 4th-year junior. My suspicion is the dearth of PG prospects available in 2012 has teams grasping for any player who looks close to being capable and they’re overrating Lillard because of it.

I have trouble seeing Lillard as a pure PG. His top college assist rate in his 4 seasons was 4.7 A40 in his 3rd year, which was less than 300 minutes due to injury. It’s pretty rare for a player to become a top NBA PG without posting an A40 over 6.0 at least once in his college career. We’d have to go back to the 80s when Mark Price and Terry Porter overcame similarly low assist rates to become NBA stars. The best we’ve seen from high scoring/low assist college PGs recently have been gunners like Eddie House or Steve Kerr.

For a look at where Lillard stands here are some recent small college combo guards and their numbers. There have been 3 that topped 27 P40 like Lillard has and went on to pro success. I included some other recent small college players with similar stats, who weren’t as successful.

As far as the numbers, he’s a mixed bag. He looks like he can handle the offense, but I doubt he’s a pure PG. The number that worries me most is the 1.7 S40. The others on the list were well over 2.0. Most guards who make a successful jump from small colleges have a dominant steal rate. It’s a statistic, along with others, that shows NBA ability. That Lillard comes up short here is a big cause for concern.

I have my doubts that Damian Lillard can become more than a 3rd or 4th guard in the NBA. At best I see him as an instant offense player off a bench who can fill it up and run the offense semi-effectively for short stretches. At worst he’s just a gunner who doesn’t have the passing or defensive chops to get consistent court time. I wouldn’t use a lottery pick on him and I certainly wouldn’t draft him if a player with the upside of Waiters or Wroten were still on the board.

-HoopsAnalyst

But he has cool youtube videos so we should take him in the top-10. Yeah!

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

How about the fact that he is 3 years younger than Lillard? Lillard has been in college for 4 years....he is 1 year younger than established stars like Westbrook\Rose...He is not going to come in an light the NBA on fire at PG right away IMO, very few PG do.....

Rivers was one of the top 2 HS prospects for a reason, he has fantastic 1v1 skills, can break down a defender and get into the paint and finish, a little unorthodox IMO, but he finishes and\or gets fouled....He will put pressure on defenders, get teams in the penalty...he can be and wants to be that go to guy...High bball IQ...He performed pretty darn well at Duke as an 18yr old freshman, given the cirumstances (lack of talent on Duke, thrust into go to role)...Give him 3 years to develop around better players and he will be a much better NBA player, his game is better suited to the NBA IMO..and he has the ability to be a go to guy and at an age 22, that Lillard is right now....

I don't think he makes it to #11, I wish he would but TOR @ #8 or NO @ #10 look like spots for him to go at....

If POR cannot get one of the Beal, Robinson, MKG or Barnes and that should be priority #1 IMO...then I would more than happy with Rivers or Waiters at #6, b\c it is looking unlikely that either will be there at #11....

Waiters at 6 seems ridiculous. I don't put a ton of stock in NBAdraft.net prospect profiles, but these two comments on Waiters makes me puke:

-Waiters definitely has a future in the NBA playing the same role he does in college ... He's a spark off the bench, can spell your point guard and spread the floor as a spot-up shooter ...
-He's clearly not a point guard, so you wonder how he'll perform offensively against athletic 6'6 NBA 2-guards.

I like Waiters, I really do. But just say no at 6.

 

[RR7]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-t...10/2012-nba-draft-evaluating-the-point-guards

Pretty good write up:

Damian Lillard

Strength: Pick-and-roll decision making

Lillard is a top prospect based on his ability to create scoring opportunities. He averaged 24.5 points per game, including 40.9 percent shooting from behind the 3-point line. I think his most impressive asset is his ability to read the defense in pick-and-roll situations, generally making the right call between attacking the basket or setting up a teammate. According to Synergy Sports, Lillard posted a PPP of 1.039 when looking to score himself, placing him in the 91st percentile. If you account for his passes out of pick-and-rolls, Lillard's PPP remains high at 1.083 (87th percentile). The fact that there is so little drop off between to the two stats confirms his strong decision-making skills.


Lillard likes to play off of ballscreens that allow him to create space for his jump shot, which he does 61.3 percent of the time when he actually uses a screen. He ranked in the top 10 of jump shots off the dribble in terms of PPP. If the defense goes under the screen or switches, Lillard will pull up behind it. This forces the defense to go over his ballscreens, but this still puts them at a disadvantage given Lillard's shooting skills. If he cannot get his shot, he is a willing passer with a natural feel for it.


Weakness: Defense

Lillard's problems come on defense. He shows a lack of focus when working off of the ball.


He has a tendency to ball-watch when defending his man off of the basketball. Perhaps even worse, he will often turn his back to his man on dribble penetration, attempting wild steals that result in open shots for the man he is covering. He certainly has the skills to be a good defender, he just needs to put those skills to use.

Player Comparison: Better Version Of Isaiah Thomas

Lillard has more size and is a better shooter, but he plays off of screens similarly to Thomas, who had a very strong rookie season.

Kendall Marshall

Strength: Isolation Play

Kendall Marshall's narrative is almost the exact opposite of Lillard. He is known as a "pure point guard," a "pass-first guy." But his scoring ability should not be discounted. He averaged only 8.1 points per game, but he averaged just 6.3 attempts. Just because he isn't scoring, it doesn't mean he can't. I was especially impressed with Marshall's play in isolation situations (which made up 23.6 percent of his offensive possessions), which is usually when he looked for his own shot. He tries to get to the rim, and when he does, it's extremely effective. He posted a PPP of 1.031 (89th percentile) on 51 percent shooting while getting to the free throw line 15.6 percent of the time.


Marshall won't beat a defender to the rim and dunk on him, but he will out-smart him. He knows how to use his size and strength: When he attacks, he leans on the defense, using his body as a shield to prevent steal attempts. Marshall already has many of the crafty moves we expect from veterans. If you are looking for a flaw, he may go to his left too often, though we saw Kyrie Irving make it work.

Weakness: Transition Offense

Marshall scored just 0.857 PPP on the break, placing him in the 22nd percentile. The problem? Turnovers. He turned the basketball over 30 percent of the time on the break, which is, simply, way too high.


His problem may be over-confidence. He always goes for the flashy home run pass or an impressive pass throughthrough two or three defenders, and some times his teammates are ready. After watching his control and intelligence in the half court, it's hard to believe you are watching the same player in transition.

Player Comparison: Andre Miller

The Andre Miller comparison is almost too easy, but it's undeniable when you see Marshall using his body in the same way Miller does on a nightly basis.

Austin Rivers

Strength: Getting To The Rim and Finishing

Every year there is a college player who was a scorer but also dominated the ball, forcing us to ask: Can he play point guard? This year we ask that about Rivers. He has all the skills to be a solid scorer, but he will likely have to do it as a point guard. He really struggled around the rim at the start of his career at Duke. I wrote about it previously, and at the time, Rivers was posting a PPP of 0.588 around the rim, which is very low, but by the end of the season, he got up to 1.138 on 54.5 percent shooting. He improved by finishing through contact and shying away from it less.


He capitalized on his ability to get to the rim by improving the small stuff — jumping off of two feet, getting his shoulders square with the backboard, etc. — which will serve him well in the NBA.

Weakness: Catch-and-Shoot

Rivers will have to play point guard next year because of his inability to knock a shot down in catch-and-shoot situations. According to Synergy, he shot just 24.1 percent. There are a number of things wrong with Rivers's shooting stroke.


You'll notice a lot inconsistency, which is not ideal. The best shooters — guys like Ray Allen — repeat the same motion every time they shoot. Rivers has far too many variables: the release point is inconsistent; how high he jumps is inconsistent; even the way he lands is inconsistent. His shot will be difficult to fix since it's unclear where the real problem is introduced. Once he gets a consistent form, he could be an extremely dangerous player.

Player Comparison: John Wall

This might not be the obvious comparison, but both Rivers and Wall shoot in the 50 percent range around the rim while only shooting in the 20 percent range in catch-and-shoots. Additionally, they both turn the ball over a little too often (Rivers 14.3 percent, Wall 19.1 percent).

 

[Blaze01]

There is just a disconnect IMO when it comes to Lillard vs other recruits...be it Rivers, Drummond, Teague etc....

Lillard gets credit for having a very good season, but it is his 4th year in college...and he is 2-3 years older than most of the other top prospects in the draft...and he played in a much weaker conference....He has to\should look better stats wise....

But then it appears to me that guys like Rivers, Waiters, Teague, Drummond etc are PENALIZED for thier youth....comparing stats of what they did in big conferences against top quality opponents at the age of 18-19 to that of Lillard....I mean, what would Rivers look like if he came out after reshirting a year and then playing 3 years at Duke? Do people really believe that he would not have improved at all, just as Lillard did? He (Rivers) averaged over 15pts a game at Duke as an 18yr old, yeah he was inefficient, but he was an 18yr old freshman thrust into a go-to role and carrying a much bigger scoring load than he should have had to do, and he progressed (got better) as the year went on....

It just seems like some of these kids are getting penalized b\c of thier youth here, when instead that should definitely be weighed into the equation (in thier favor I would add)...b\c in 3 years a kid like Rivers will be the age that Lillard is right now and with 3 years in the NBA under his belt...and where his game certainly seems more suited to the NBA than it was in college...

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

What conference a player comes from has never been a hangup for me. Did you use that same metric when comparing Nolan Smith and Faried last year?

Faried dominated the Ohio States' and Florida's.

Lillard was a big 'ol bag of Meh in the rare times he played outside the Big Sky.

 

[RoyToy]

Just look at these facts about Lillard

Great jumper with elite athleticism. Idk about you guys, but I love that combo.

A little polishing and you got yourself a really good player.

Interesting note on Lillard - Got to the line 8 times a game last year

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Damn, he was their best player and defender.

Thabo is clearly, CLEARLY better than Harden, too.

Your point is valid in the sense you don't always have your best 5 players starting.

But it's not valid in that you ALWAYS have your best player starting.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Some notes from nbadraft.net's draft buzz:

So 10 pages ago....

 

[RoyToy]

From RR7's post that I wanted to point out

According to Synergy Sports, Lillard posted a PPP of 1.039 when looking to score himself, placing him in the 91st percentile. If you account for his passes out of pick-and-rolls, Lillard's PPP remains high at 1.083 (87th percentile). The fact that there is so little drop off between to the two stats confirms his strong decision-making skills.

 

[illmatic99]

lol. This is new

By Aran_Smith
Mon, 06/25/2012 - 8:27pm

So new, it's from the future.

 

[MickZagger]

Faried dominated the Ohio States' and Florida's.

Lillard was a big 'ol bag of Meh in the rare times he played outside the Big Sky.

We've already gone over this a hundred times. No he wasn't, with the exception of the Cal game. He lit up a team that was a 7 seed for 36 points.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

From RR7's post that I wanted to point out

This figure means nothing to me because I have no sort of comparative basis - do you?

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Articles that praise Lilllard, garbage.

Articles that hate on Lillard, gospel.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

SMU? That's what you're hanging your Lillard hat on? I rest my case.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Even though he was the 6th man at Syracuse this past season, Waiters emerged from a talented group of Orange perimeter players to become the most effective scorer and top perimeter defender on the team. This came after a difficult freshman year, after which he almost transferred. It’s always a good sign when a player accepts a challenge and improves his game rather than looking for greener pastures.

The most impressive number Waiters posted was a 3.0 S40 (Steals per 40 minutes). Combined with his 21.0 P40 and .529 2-point percentage this puts Waiters in some elite company among college sophomore SGs. I found only 3 other SGs who accomplished this in recent years.

But in a draft that’s void of stars after the top pick, Waiters is the type of player who should intrigue teams drafting in the top 10. He’s one of the few players after Anthony Davis who has actually shown some signs of dominance at the college level. Considering his diverse set of skills and the fact that he’s just a soph with a lot of upside, Waiters is a potential all-star who shouldn’t fall out of the top 5.

-----------------------------------------

Lillard’s stock has risen steadily all season. This isn’t surprising, as he has made some nice improvements in his game as a 4th-year junior. My suspicion is the dearth of PG prospects available in 2012 has teams grasping for any player who looks close to being capable and they’re overrating Lillard because of it.

I have trouble seeing Lillard as a pure PG. His top college assist rate in his 4 seasons was 4.7 A40 in his 3rd year, which was less than 300 minutes due to injury. It’s pretty rare for a player to become a top NBA PG without posting an A40 over 6.0 at least once in his college career. We’d have to go back to the 80s when Mark Price and Terry Porter overcame similarly low assist rates to become NBA stars. The best we’ve seen from high scoring/low assist college PGs recently have been gunners like Eddie House or Steve Kerr.

For a look at where Lillard stands here are some recent small college combo guards and their numbers. There have been 3 that topped 27 P40 like Lillard has and went on to pro success. I included some other recent small college players with similar stats, who weren’t as successful.

As far as the numbers, he’s a mixed bag. He looks like he can handle the offense, but I doubt he’s a pure PG. The number that worries me most is the 1.7 S40. The others on the list were well over 2.0. Most guards who make a successful jump from small colleges have a dominant steal rate. It’s a statistic, along with others, that shows NBA ability. That Lillard comes up short here is a big cause for concern.

I have my doubts that Damian Lillard can become more than a 3rd or 4th guard in the NBA. At best I see him as an instant offense player off a bench who can fill it up and run the offense semi-effectively for short stretches. At worst he’s just a gunner who doesn’t have the passing or defensive chops to get consistent court time. I wouldn’t use a lottery pick on him and I certainly wouldn’t draft him if a player with the upside of Waiters or Wroten were still on the board.

 

[MickZagger]

SMU? That's what you're hanging your Lillard hat on? I rest my case.

It was the best team on the schedule. He dropped 36 on them.

Its SMC by the way.

 

[RR7]

This figure means nothing to me because I have no sort of comparative basis - do you?

Not a specific comparative basis, per player, just hsi mention of being in the 91st percentile with that number.