2018 Around the NBA - October

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I don't know why I like to slam on Carmelo, but I definitely seem to like it:

Rockets, game 1:
Rockets with Carmelo in game: -20 in 27 minutes.
Rockets with Carmelo not playing: +1 in 21 minutes.

You could say this about multiple rockets players, but this was a trend from the preseason for Carmel0.
 
funny you say that, he WAS my favorite player growing up and friends said we had the same game. I had no J, but just banged and rebounded. And my boss calls me the Charles Barkley of Blazers Broadcasting. Not sure that’s a compliment or not.
 
Contract extension for Mike Malone:

http://www.nba.com/article/2018/10/18/nuggets-extend-contract-coach-michael-malone

Is Mike Malone considered a good coach? His career record as a head coach is 159-194 and he has never taken a team to the playoffs. On th eother hand, DEN has improved their record every year he's been there (33-49, 40-42 and 46-36).

To me, he seems like a good offensive coach, but none of the teams he's coached have finished better than 23rd in defensive efficiency.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Contract extension for Mike Malone:

http://www.nba.com/article/2018/10/18/nuggets-extend-contract-coach-michael-malone

Is Mike Malone considered a good coach? His career record as a head coach is 159-194 and he has never taken a team to the playoffs. On th eother hand, DEN has improved their record every year he's been there (33-49, 40-42 and 46-36).

To me, he seems like a good offensive coach, but none of the teams he's coached have finished better than 23rd in defensive efficiency.

BNM
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I still don't get all the Denver love.
 
tumblr_oza3vno96E1qmob6ro1_400.gif
 
hoopsjock said:
I still don't get all the Denver love.
Click to expand...

I don't understand the new math:

upload_2018-10-19_15-9-54.png

This is ESPN's current Basketball Power Index rankings. Since it's the start of a new season, they rely on data from the previous season, plus "preseason expectations".

OFF and DEF are how many points greater/lower than average, a team is expected to score or give up. Last season, DEN actually gave up 2.4 more points per 100 possessions than league average. Now, suddenly, because "preseason expectations" they are only going to give up 0.2 more points per 100 possessions than average. DEN went from one of the worst defensive teams in the league to almost average based solely on "preseason expectations". Sounds an awful lot like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me. We love DEN, therefore, we expect them to do better.

POR, on the other hand gave up 2.2 fewer points per 100 possession than league average last season, but because the ESPN "experts" don't like POR, they are suddenly down to holding opponents to only 0.5 points per 100 possessions below league average. We went from one of the best defenses in the league to "meh" based on "preseason expectations".

See how that works? Last year we were 4.6 points per 100 possessions than DEN on the defensive end. This year, based on ESPN's own "preseason expectations", we're only going to be 0.7 points per 100 possessions better than them on defense.

If you use that actual data from last season, it's easy to see why POR finished ahead of DEN in the standings:

Actual 2017-18 season results (league wide average scoring = 108.6 points per 100 possessions):

Using the formulas:
OFF = ORtg - 108.6
DEF = 108.6 - DRtg
BPI = OFF + DEF

Portland Trail Blazers:
OFF = 109.1 - 108.6 = 0.5
DEF = 108.6 - 106.4 = 2.2
BPI = 0.5 + 2.2 = 2.7

Denver Nuggets:
OFF = 112.5 - 108.6 = 3.9
DEF = 108.6 - 111.0 = -2.4
BPI = 3.9 - 2.4 = 1.5

Obviously, the above rankings are heavily biased by their own expectations, but it seems ridiculous that a POR team that's returning all of it's starters and it's top bench player (in terms of minutes played) would drop from actual BPI = 2.7 to projected BPI of 0.9, while DEN improves from actual 1.5 to predicted 2.8. Even if they expect Paul Millsap to play all 82 games and return to his 2015-16 defensive form, that's not enough to justify such a big improvement in their team defense - especially since their bench got weaker defensively with the addition of Isaiah Thomas.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
I don't understand the new math:

View attachment 22816

This is ESPN's current Basketball Power Index rankings. Since it's the start of a new season, they rely on data from the previous season, plus "preseason expectations".

OFF and DEF are how many points greater/lower than average, a team is expected to score or give up. Last season, DEN actually gave up 2.4 more points per 100 possessions than league average. Now, suddenly, because "preseason expectations" they are only going to give up 0.2 more points per 100 possessions than average. DEN went from one of the worst defensive teams in the league to almost average based solely on "preseason expectations". Sounds an awful lot like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me. We love DEN, therefore, we expect them to do better.

POR, on the other hand gave up 2.2 fewer points per 100 possession than league average last season, but because the ESPN "experts" don't like POR, they are suddenly down to holding opponents to only 0.5 points per 100 possessions below league average. We went from one of the best defenses in the league to "meh" based on "preseason expectations".

See how that works? Last year we were 4.6 points per 100 possessions than DEN on the defensive end. This year, based on ESPN's own "preseason expectations", we're only going to be 0.7 points per 100 possessions better than them on defense.

If you use that actual data from last season, it's easy to see why POR finished ahead of DEN in the standings:

Actual 2017-18 season results (league wide average scoring = 108.6 points per 100 possessions):

Using the formulas:
OFF = ORtg - 108.6
DEF = 108.6 - DRtg
BPI = OFF + DEF

Portland Trail Blazers:
OFF = 109.1 - 108.6 = 0.5
DEF = 108.6 - 106.4 = 2.2
BPI = 0.5 + 2.2 = 2.7

Denver Nuggets:
OFF = 112.5 - 108.6 = 3.9
DEF = 108.6 - 111.0 = -2.4
BPI = 3.9 - 2.4 = 1.5

Obviously, the above rankings are heavily biased by their own expectations, but it seems ridiculous that a POR team that's returning all of it's starters and it's top bench player (in terms of minutes played) would drop from actual BPI = 2.7 to projected BPI of 0.9, while DEN improves from actual 1.5 to predicted 2.8. Even if they expect Paul Millsap to play all 82 games and return to his 2015-16 defensive form, that's not enough to justify such a big improvement in their team defense - especially since their bench got weaker defensively with the addition of Isaiah Thomas.

BNM
Click to expand...
Is this after last night's game?
 
hoopsjock said:
Is this after last night's game?
Click to expand...

I believe so, but I'm not 100% sure if they update it daily. I do know that it's been updated since their preseason BPI rankings came out on August 28. At that time they had DEN ranked 9th in the league with a BPI of +2.5 and Portland 16th in the league at +0.4.

We did give up a lot of points last night, but it was a very fast paced game. LA really pushes the pace. So, lot's of possessions. Our team DRtg last night was 107.00. That's currently 13th in the league, but only only 0.6 points per possession than our 106.4 DRtg for last season.

On the other hand, our ORtg of 115.1 is currently 6th in the league and 6 points per 100 possessions higher than last season.

Obviously, small sample size caveats apply in all cases.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
I believe so, but I'm not 100% sure if they update it daily. I do know that it's been updated since their preseason BPI rankings came out on August 28. At that time they had DEN ranked 9th in the league with a BPI of +2.5 and Portland 16th in the league at +0.4.

We did give up a lot of points last night, but it was a very fast paced game. LA really pushes the pace. So, lot's of possessions. Our team DRtg last night was 107.00. That's currently 13th in the league, but only only 0.6 points per possession than our 106.4 DRtg for last season.

On the other hand, our ORtg of 115.1 is currently 6th in the league and 6 points per 100 possessions higher than last season.

Obviously, small sample size caveats apply in all cases.

BNM
Click to expand...
If it accounts for last nights game, this would be the equivalent of if a team like Washington State beat Alabama in the 1st weekend of college football and Alabama was still rated higher the next day in the polls. Oh and lets throw a team like Florida State ahead of Wazzu too because they have the talent to be better. Who cares if the results don't show that!
 
Currently watching a game where Ed Davis, Allen Crabbe and Noah Vonleh are all on the floor at the same time.

It's not a very good game.
 
Kawhi is still an elite defender, once the rust falls off offensively, Toronto is going to be a terror.
 
"I love the time-out."

We know, Hubie.
 
andalusian said:
Kawhi is still an elite defender, once the rust falls off offensively, Toronto is going to be a terror.
Click to expand...

I am amazed at how annoying Toronto fans are. They bully you on the boards and brigade you for the slightest offense. They have a good team though. I don't look forward to playing them this year.
 
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