2019 NBA Draft Thread (2 Viewers)

[hoopsjock]

Cam Reddish is making it really hard for me to still have him high on my board.

Never bought into the upside, but more than ever do I think he needs to land in a situation with the personnel and role to accentuate his strengths and protect against his extreme weaknesses.

Not sure he'll find that if he goes as high as he's projected right now.

And I think this draft is interesting thought exercise (like most years, but even more so this year
0 on team building. Many of the high usage "upside" guys don't look like true differences makers and end up being extremely damaging players if thrust into similar roles early in their careers. From there they're either given up on early or overpaid because of production that rarely equals their contributions to winning at a high level.

It's why most bad teams stay bad and why it's extremely difficult to build a team that wins at a high level in the NBA.

I've never been high on Reddish either. He's cost himself big time by not stepping up more since Zion went down. I wonder if getting exposed will crash his draft stock enough to warrant him going back to Duke?

I definitely don't see as many difference makers in this draft compared to the last two. Although that could be okay for a team like the Blazers picking in the 20's because there will be plenty of sleepers or solid role player types that will be available in the late 1st.

 

[JDC]

Just want to say I really enjoy your takes on college players. Do you scout or anything? Or is it just a hobby?

Nope, golf pro.

But basketball has always been my passion. Currently deciding whether I want to shift gears and get into coaching in some capacity. Have always loved the X's and O's side of basketball and evaluating talent.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Nope, golf pro.

But basketball has always been my passion. Currently deciding whether I want to shift gears and get into coaching in some capacity. Have always loved the X's and O's side of basketball and evaluating talent.

Awesome! Well Im sure you’ll do well with whatever you decide to do. My sports watching time has been cut a lot the past month or so and its nice to read your takes.

I suck so bad at evaluating college guys coming to the pro’s.

 

[JDC]

Here's some of my notes on Reddish in relation his inefficiency's as a scorer and how could still bring value to a good team:

Poor ball control, balance, quickness with the ball, leaping ability off both one and two feet, and not a finisher with any sort of contact. His shooting mechanics also lead to a lot of bad misses long and short (too much bend in his shooting arm).

Some of these issues are correctable, but it's definitely going to take some development and a team that can give him a role with some more structure before he's a positive offensive player.

Still like the size, fluidity, solid IQ on both ends and ability to shoot in a variety of ways / be used in different actions. Also think he's a guy that'll be a pretty versatile on ball defender, especially against 1's and 2's (similar to Klay Thompson in this aspect).

And some more comparing RJ and Cam as athletes:

Cam is more fluid, better at creating space through his handle and footwork on the perimeter, quicker and more agile in small spaces and moves better defensively.

RJ is stronger, better leaper off both 1 and 2 feet, better open court / big space athlete and overall more controlled in his movements. Don't think he's a stand out in any one area though. His stiff and upright play along with below the rim finishing could really hamper his offensive ceiling from a physical standpoint as an on the ball scorer.

So yeah, both are really different athletes. You'd likely give RJ the edge in a vacuum, but I think there's a fair argument to be had that RJ's athletic quirks could be more damaging than Cam's if you take role into account (if you project Cam as an off the ball shooter / versatile POA defender).

 

[BonesJones]

Nope, golf pro.

But basketball has always been my passion. Currently deciding whether I want to shift gears and get into coaching in some capacity. Have always loved the X's and O's side of basketball and evaluating talent.

Im in talks with a couple people to make a DraftExpress like YT channel. If your interested in making videos like they used to do let me know.

 

[JDC]

Awesome! Well Im sure you’ll do well with whatever you decide to do. My sports watching time has been cut a lot the past month or so and its nice to read your takes.

I suck so bad at evaluating college guys coming to the pro’s.

Thanks!

And yeah, talent evaluation is very hard. So many variables and the team context these kids get drafted into also has big effect on how they turn out.

But it's a fun process for me and gets me thinking critically about basketball.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Thanks!

And yeah, talent evaluation is very hard. So many variables and the team context these kids get drafted into also has big effect on how they turn out.

But it's a fun process for me and gets me thinking critically about basketball.

What always baffles me is when a guy looks like such a good shooter in college and gets to the NBA and looks like he’s never shot a basketball before...

 

[GhostOfPGA]

Cam Reddish isn't going to be a bad NBA player but, he isn't going to be a superstar either. I see him in the same vein as a fellow Duke Blue Devil, Justise Winslow.

 

[JDC]

Yeah, shooting is one of the toughest things to project.

And for role players (which most of these guys will be no more than), it can shift the value of that player so drastically that it's obviously one of the most important.

Sometimes it simply comes down to confidence...sometimes mechanics. You are also often working with very small sample sizes (especially with freshman) so it's important to look at other aspects of the players game other than 3P% to better identify how good a shooter or how much touch a kid really has.

Including volume of three point attempts, FT%, mid range / floater range % as well as HS/AAU numbers is a good way to get a clearer picture of things and sometimes that isn't even enough.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Yeah, shooting is one of the toughest things to project.

And for role players (which most of these guys will be no more than), it can shift the value of that player so drastically that it' also one of the most important.

Sometimes it simply comes down to confidence...sometimes mechanics. You are also often working with very small sample sizes, especially with freshman so it's important to look at other aspects of the players game to identify how good a shooter or how much touch a kid really has other than 3P%.

Including volume of three point attempts, FT%, mid range / floater range % as well as HS/AAU numbers is a good way to get a clearer picture of things and sometimes that isn't even enough.

I usually look for form, like does the mechanics look good. How does it leave their hands, how much arc is on it. Its interesting I feel like Im much better at the X’s and O’s of basketball then I am at talent evaluation. Not saying Im even close to good enough, but if I had to pick an NBA job that wasnt based around technology, it would be a defensive coordinator. I LOVE drawing up defensive plans and thinking about how I would stop a guy or a team. Which is really overall what bugs me about a certain coach but thats besides the point.

 

[JDC]

I usually look for form, like does the mechanics look good. How does it leave their hands, how much arc is on it. Its interesting I feel like Im much better at the X’s and O’s of basketball then I am at talent evaluation. Not saying Im even close to good enough, but if I had to pick an NBA job that wasnt based around technology, it would be a defensive coordinator. I LOVE drawing up defensive plans and thinking about how I would stop a guy or a team. Which is really overall what bugs me about a certain coach but thats besides the point.

Yup.

Guys that are one motion shooters or that generate most of their power from their lower body are normally safer bets. More generally, you can tell pretty easily whether a guy is a natural shooter or more self-made.

I also like to look at misses and how they shoot vs good contests against nba size and athleticism.

That gets me to another point. So much of this college sample is worthless in terms of NBA evaluation. The good scouts are the one's that are able to parse out what's real and translatable and how those skills fit into a valuable nba role.

 

[BonesJones]

Yeah, shooting is one of the toughest things to project.

And for role players (which most of these guys will be no more than), it can shift the value of that player so drastically that it's obviously one of the most important.

Sometimes it simply comes down to confidence...sometimes mechanics. You are also often working with very small sample sizes (especially with freshman) so it's important to look at other aspects of the players game other than 3P% to better identify how good a shooter or how much touch a kid really has.

Including volume of three point attempts, FT%, mid range / floater range % as well as HS/AAU numbers is a good way to get a clearer picture of things and sometimes that isn't even enough.

I think you quoted the wrong post haha.

 

[BonesJones]

Morant could possibly be the best passing PG in the league right away. His vision, IQ, and accuracy are all top notch. And then you add his athleticism and slashing ability and you have a player that, IMO should be the #1 pick. The only prospect that rates as highly to me in the past 3 drafts is Jayson Tatum.

 

[BonesJones]

Also, we need to find a way to get Brandon Clarke.

 

[JDC]

Here's my final take on Ja Morant...

Has all star talent.

Needs to show more commitment defensively, develop his pull up / middle game and not be so casual in his decision making.

Think he'll struggle early in his career until he can force teams to go over on him in ball screens and if he continues to float on D like he has in college. Also pretty left handed off the bounce right now, struggles decelerating and lacks great footwork overall shooting off the dribble. Don't think he'll be a super effective 1v1 player early on as he works on these issues.

But I like the work ethic, intangibles and natural talent/instincts enough to bet on him high in the draft. Think there's a chance he can be a high impact player offensively on a good team if things go right and I just don't see that being on the table for many of the guys in this draft, including RJ.

As far as fit goes, I hope he ends up in Memphis. He and Jaren could be a really fun duo.

 

[JDC]

Also, we need to find a way to get Brandon Clarke.

He'd be a nice fit. An incredible one if the shooting development is real.

It's crazy how his mechanics have evolved. In HS his form looked fine, then at San Jose State....



And now at Gonzaga, it looks like Few and his staff has got him shooting how he used to.

Jordan Bell is the lazy comparison for obvious reasons, but here's why I'm higher on Clarke.

First off, he's much smarter on both ends. Isn't the gambler Bell was at Oregon (and continues to be with GS) and overall just much smarter and disciplined. Better decision maker on offense too and has more PF-like skill as a scorer and passer. Big thing for me here too is that he has very good touch on shots around rim, which is vital for wing sized bigs. Jordan Bell was/ still is an awful finisher on non-dunks and overall very limited as a scorer whereas Clarke has a much more varied skill set....



Bell does have his advantages as a post defender and defensive rebounder, but the nice thing about Clarke is that he better profiles to be able to play some 4 and overall be a part of a wider range of lineups (especially if the shooting continues to develop) rather than being another small ball 5 with limited versatility.

Interested to see him go through the interview process though. Haven't really been able to find much on him here, but from the little I've heard he's seemed to be a bit "different".

I know it's a small thing and he seems smart on the floor which is what really matters, but it's something that I factor in and many NBA teams weigh more heavily than you'd think.

Besides age, size and potential role limitations, it's the one thing that I think could keep him from going as high as he probably should in this draft.

 

[BonesJones]

He'd be a nice fit. An incredible one if the shooting development is real.

It's crazy how his mechanics have evolved. In HS his form looked fine, then at San Jose State....



And now at Gonzaga, it looks like Few and his staff has got him shooting how he used to.

Jordan Bell is the lazy comparison for obvious reasons, but here's why I'm higher on Clarke.

First off, he's much smarter on both ends. Isn't the gambler Bell was at Oregon (and continues to be with GS) and overall just much smarter and disciplined. Better decision maker on offense too and has more PF-like skill as a scorer and passer. Big thing for me here too is that he has very good touch on shots around rim, which is vital for wing sized bigs. Jordan Bell was/ still is an awful finisher on non-dunks and overall very limited as a scorer whereas Clarke has a much more varied skill set....



Bell does have his advantages as a post defender and defensive rebounder, but the nice thing about Clarke is that he better profiles to be able to play some 4 and overall be a part of a wider range of lineups (especially if the shooting continues to develop) rather than being another small ball 5 with limited versatility.

Interested to see him go through the interview process though. Haven't really been able to find much on him here, but from the little I've heard he's seemed to be a bit "different".

I know it's a small thing and he seems smart on the floor which is what really matters, but it's something that I factor in and many NBA teams weigh more heavily than you'd think.

Besides age, size and potential role limitations, it's the one thing that I think could keep him from going as high as he probably should in this draft.

Different? Weird. Maybe Portland is a good fit then.

I think a frontcourt of Nurkic, Collins, Clarke, and Labissiere would be really good defensively and have a lot of different traits and skillsets thatd be brought to the table. For how cheap and young that frontcourt would be, I like it.

By letting Aminu go, we'd have $126M and a full frontcourt. With a hard cap of $138Mish, we'd be looking at the ability to make sign and trades and have our Full MLE (for some combination of Curry/Hood/FA). Hed be a great fit in terms of helping ourselves construct our roster.

 

[JDC]

Talen Horton-Tucker is fascinating.

Unique physical profile, ridiculous IQ on both ends, shot making, crafty...and the kid didn't turn 18 until like a month after the year started. Tough Chicago kid too, which I like.

He probably doesn't come out this year, but if he can get in better shape and prove that he's a better shooter than his percentages showed this year, he's got a chance to go very high.

 

[MickZagger]

Clarke reminds me a lot of Kenyon Martin in college.

 

[BonesJones]

Talen Horton-Tucker is fascinating.

Unique physical profile, ridiculous IQ on both ends, shot making, crafty...and the kid didn't turn 18 until like a month after the year started. Tough Chicago kid too, which I like.

He probably doesn't come out this year, but if he can get in better shape and prove that he's a better shooter than his percentages showed this year, he's got a chance to go very high.

When I first saw him play I thought this was definitely your type of guy haha.

 

[JDC]

I know I've talked him up a bunch already but besides Zion, Tyler Herro has been my a favorite freshman to watch all year .

Starting to get his due. Up to #15 on Tankathon's big board and a great feature on him by B/R's Mirin Fader.



Some highlights as well (recommend watching on mute).

 

[CupWizier]

Atlanta has pick 5 and 6 in the draft. Wonder what it would take to get that #6.

 

[hoopsjock]

Atlanta has pick 5 and 6 in the draft. Wonder what it would take to get that #6.

Nothing we have.

 

[CupWizier]

I know I've talked him up a bunch already but besides Zion, Tyler Herro has been my a favorite freshman to watch all year .

Starting to get his due. Up to #15 on Tankathon's big board and a great feature on him by B/R's Mirin Fader.



Some highlights as well (recommend watching on mute).

Is he a Grayson Allen type? Seems like he has some baggage like Allen. I don't watch college BB till March Madness so don't really follow to many of the teams or players right now. I'll be sure to watch him play. What's interesting is that he isn't even on the draft board at NBAdraft.net and is 30th on CBS mock draft.

 

[CupWizier]

Nothing we have.

I have no idea what they are thinking so to blow it off seems a bit premature. Maybe Simons and Collins are in their scope along with a pick or two. Never say never.

 

[JDC]

Kyle Mann of the Dime Drop (also does some work for The Ringer) with a good breakdown of Ja's game and NBA prospects here:

 

[JDC]

Is he a Grayson Allen type? Seems like he has some baggage like Allen. I don't watch college BB till March Madness so don't really follow to many of the teams or players right now. I'll be sure to watch him play. What's interesting is that he isn't even on the draft board at NBAdraft.net and is 30th on CBS mock draft.

Tyler's baggage is different. Pissed off a lot of Wisconsin fans with his late decommitment and has a cockiness to him on the floor that some don't like.

But not a dirty player at all.

 

[CupWizier]

Tyler's baggage is different. Pissed off a lot of Wisconsin fans with his late decommitment and has a cockiness to him on the floor that some don't like.

But not a dirty player at all.

Thanks for the update. I read where he is considered a pure shooter.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Nothing we have.

CJ?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Kyle Mann of the Dime Drop (also does some work for The Ringer) with a good breakdown of Ja's game and NBA prospects here:

I want to see him in Phoenix with Booker, Bridges, Jackson, and Ayton.