2020 Training Camp Thread

[illmatic99]

Not accustomed to all this positive energy. Waiting for the inevitable injury news.

 

[Zach Collins Enthusiast]

Watching the Ducks tonight and they were talking about how Altman's teams always get a lot better as the season goes on. And it seems like that's what some NBA coaches like Pops do; prepare their teams for the playoffs over the season. Sometimes they put improving the team over winning games. Aren't we talented enough now that we could do that? But it doesn't seem like that is Stotts' plan. He was asked yesterday if they would use more zone since Jones was so effective at it in Miami. He seemed to acknowledge that the zone was very effective for Miami and could be for us, but he said there would not be time to learn it. He said they would be playing every other day and needed rest days. What if, instead of shootaround on game days, they did a walkthrough, learning zone defense (or something else new), then practiced it 5 0n 5 for 10 minutes, then in the game tried it out for 15 minutes? It just seems to me that the Stotts' attitude is more suited for making sure we get in the playoffs, it's not the getting into the finals attitude.

Terry is a lousy coach who doesn't understand how to coach defense better than you or me

 

[SharpesTriumph]

If Elleby sucks that bad, why are they wasting a roster spot on him? Somebody must have thought he has a chance to play at the NBA level - or spending even a 2nd round pick on him was stupid.

The Blazers had to get a second round pick for the 14th spot because that keeps them under the luxury tax vs a veteran.

Neil probably thinks with a year of practice and if he works hard maybe Elleby can do something next season. There is a track record with Gary Trent, Allen Crabbe, Will Barton, etc doing nothing as a rookie then some minutes their second year. I doubt Neil thought Elleby would play a minute this season.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Watching the Ducks tonight and they were talking about how Altman's teams always get a lot better as the season goes on. And it seems like that's what some NBA coaches like Pops do; prepare their teams for the playoffs over the season. Sometimes they put improving the team over winning games. Aren't we talented enough now that we could do that? But it doesn't seem like that is Stotts' plan. He was asked yesterday if they would use more zone since Jones was so effective at it in Miami. He seemed to acknowledge that the zone was very effective for Miami and could be for us, but he said there would not be time to learn it. He said they would be playing every other day and needed rest days. What if, instead of shootaround on game days, they did a walkthrough, learning zone defense (or something else new), then practiced it 5 0n 5 for 10 minutes, then in the game tried it out for 15 minutes? It just seems to me that the Stotts' attitude is more suited for making sure we get in the playoffs, it's not the getting into the finals attitude.

Last year I'm fine with them only doing all they can to make the postseason, when you are struggling to make the playoffs.

But I agree with your critique for other seasons. The Blazers seem to focus on getting the 3rd seed, but Dame is exhausted when the playoffs start and they have no ability to change styles or lineups.

With a deeper team maybe there is a change to that this season. Either we will finally see Stotts succeed with more weapons, or it will be evident his coaching has major shortcomings and the team should explore a new option.

 

[blazerkor]

Ahhhhh, if you look close at the :45 second mark, you can see him parking CJ's car. Again at 1:05, you see him folding Nurk's laundry. Close as he is going to get helping us on or off the court in the 2 years he'll be here.

Wait... is he just parking his own car? #CJception #outdatedreference

 

[Scalma]

Ahhhhh, if you look close at the :45 second mark, you can see him parking CJ's car. Again at 1:05, you see him folding Nurk's laundry. Close as he is going to get helping us on or off the court in the 2 years he'll be here.

“Trent not gonna play”
“Melo not coming off the bench”

Damn, Elleby might be rookie of the year!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Took three years but he finally *looks* like an nba player.

Which one?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What the fuck ever! This type of stuff actually upsets me every season. We bring in some random ass practice players and dorks on here start pumping them up like they are going to help us win. No. That's not how it works. How many fools on here thought Hoard/Brown and Gabriel should be starting and playing down the stretch of tight games. There is a reason they were stranded in the G-League. There is a reason wherever the hell they went, they will be guarding the gatorade on the bench before they are guarding a player on the court. I'd just love to know who will be sitting on the bench when this kid will be out there getting PT.

This is from The Athletic's Blazer preview (by John Hollinger). Apparently he counts Carmelo as about on a par with Elleby:

 

[B-Roy]

This is from The Athletic's Blazer preview (by John Hollinger). Apparently he counts Carmelo as about on a par with Elleby:
View attachment 35418

What's his value for the starters?

 

[julius]

Ahhhhh, if you look close at the :45 second mark, you can see him parking CJ's car. Again at 1:05, you see him folding Nurk's laundry. Close as he is going to get helping us on or off the court in the 2 years he'll be here.

He dissed you somehow, didn't he?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What's his value for the starters?

 

[tester551]

This is from The Athletic's Blazer preview (by John Hollinger). Apparently he counts Carmelo as about on a par with Elleby:
View attachment 35418View attachment 35422

Those are fairly close to that I would value each player at.

However, I do think RoCo and DJJ might be valued a tad too high - along with Nas & Melo. I don't see anyone who I consider undervalued by this evaluation.

 

[wizenheimer]

View attachment 35422

so, according to that criteria, Portland has 4 bargains as starters and one serious overpay. No surprise who the overpay is

 

[B-Roy]

View attachment 35422

I assume the rank is league rank by position?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I assume the rank is league rank by position?

Yes, with the proviso that they're ranked according to some weird Frankenstein stat he's invented.

BORG and BORD$: The nitty-gritty
There are lots of one-size-fits-all ratings out there, and some of them are pretty good. In most cases, you’ll get a good answer using just one of them. But for an exercise in ratings of every single player in the entire league, and trying to figure out how to value their future performance, inevitably every rating has its shortcomings.

What is less likely to suffer from the same maladies is a wisdom-of-crowds approach, one that pulls from multiple ratings and thus can referee between ones that might rate a player too high or too low. I call it “cocktailing” — mixing multiple ratings to make a tastier drink. (Less well-known, this is also an increasing method in drug research, including some potential COVID-19 treatments. It was that, not a long night at the bar, that first gave me this idea.)

One thing I discovered in my time in an NBA front office was that using approaches like this to value players could be really useful even if they weren’t as academically pure. The results passed the eye test much better than any single rating, both before and after the fact. While that doesn’t necessarily prove this approach is better, it is an important hurdle to clear.

To pull a cocktail together with publicly available information, I took three metrics that are fairly well known and then combined them to produce an all-in-one cocktail rating that I callBORG. (This, of course, stands for Big Ol’ Rating. But fear not nerds, it also pays homage to Star Trek’s assimilating monolith that took pieces of everything).

The three pieces:

• The multiyear version of Jacob Goldstein’s PI-PM method, which is a luck-adjusted rating for player’s on-court and off-court performance. Fans of regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) will note that this method is similar, except the luck adjustment (mostly in terms of 3-point shooting, which can be fluky in small samples). (Here is adescription)

• Nate Silver’s Raptor, which operates partly off of box score and tracking statistics and partly off of RAPM. (Here is adescription)

• My own Player Efficiency Rating (PER) over the previous two seasons, weighted by minutes and weighing 2019-20 twice as much, and normalized to be on the same scale as the other two variables. (Here is adescription)

Why these three? Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of each methodology, this was the best way to offset them all.

More.

 

[B-Roy]

Yes, with the proviso that they're ranked according to some weird Frankenstein stat he's invented.
View attachment 35427
BORG and BORD$: The nitty-gritty
There are lots of one-size-fits-all ratings out there, and some of them are pretty good. In most cases, you’ll get a good answer using just one of them. But for an exercise in ratings of every single player in the entire league, and trying to figure out how to value their future performance, inevitably every rating has its shortcomings.

What is less likely to suffer from the same maladies is a wisdom-of-crowds approach, one that pulls from multiple ratings and thus can referee between ones that might rate a player too high or too low. I call it “cocktailing” — mixing multiple ratings to make a tastier drink. (Less well-known, this is also an increasing method in drug research, including some potential COVID-19 treatments. It was that, not a long night at the bar, that first gave me this idea.)

One thing I discovered in my time in an NBA front office was that using approaches like this to value players could be really useful even if they weren’t as academically pure. The results passed the eye test much better than any single rating, both before and after the fact. While that doesn’t necessarily prove this approach is better, it is an important hurdle to clear.

To pull a cocktail together with publicly available information, I took three metrics that are fairly well known and then combined them to produce an all-in-one cocktail rating that I callBORG. (This, of course, stands for Big Ol’ Rating. But fear not nerds, it also pays homage to Star Trek’s assimilating monolith that took pieces of everything).

The three pieces:

• The multiyear version of Jacob Goldstein’s PI-PM method, which is a luck-adjusted rating for player’s on-court and off-court performance. Fans of regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) will note that this method is similar, except the luck adjustment (mostly in terms of 3-point shooting, which can be fluky in small samples). (Here is adescription)

• Nate Silver’s Raptor, which operates partly off of box score and tracking statistics and partly off of RAPM. (Here is adescription)

• My own Player Efficiency Rating (PER) over the previous two seasons, weighted by minutes and weighing 2019-20 twice as much, and normalized to be on the same scale as the other two variables. (Here is adescription)

Why these three? Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of each methodology, this was the best way to offset them all.

More.

This is awesome. Almost makes me want to subscribe to the Athletic to read more about the methodology. Is there a list for all players in the NBA? If so, I just might subscribe.

Bit curious what led him to using certain thresholds, like two years for PER, and how he accounts for players that didn't play many games or were injured the whole season.

 

[RoseCityRebel]

I didn’t think Aldridge looked muscular at all at Texas. He was thin as a rail.

I mean compared to the others on the court. Muscular shoulders.

 

[illmatic99]

so, according to that criteria, Portland has 4 bargains as starters and one serious overpay. No surprise who the overpay is

CJ is the 27th highest paid player in the league this year. Dame is 19th.

If he's on a "superstar contract" what does he call guys like Tobias Harris, Gordon Hayward, or D'angelo Russell? People need to readjust their scales a bit.

Hollinger also called Nassir undersized. Dude really did no research outside of looking at his excel sheet for this piece. No wonder Memphis was miserable during his tenure.

 

[Scalma]

Hollinger is a boring nerd that isn’t even good at being a nerd. He made a whole argument that Whiteside should get around 17m before free agency started.

 

[Buffalo Custard]

I mean compared to the others on the court. Muscular shoulders.

As I recall, when he started his career here he was fairly strong in the upper body but would get pushed around in the post because he lacked lower body strength.

 

[Buffalo Custard]

CJ is the 27th highest paid player in the league this year. Dame is 19th.

If he's on a "superstar contract" what does he call guys like Tobias Harris, Gordon Hayward, or D'angelo Russell? People need to readjust their scales a vit.

Hollinger also called Nassir undersized. Dude really did no research outside of looking at his excel sheet foe this piece. No wonder Memphis was miserable during his tenure.

Not sure how other teams giving out bad deals makes CJ any less over-paid.

 

[illmatic99]

Not sure how other teams giving out bad deals makes CJ any less over-paid.

How else do you judge a player's contract? Superstars make 40+, All Stars make 30+, fringe guys make 29-35 depending on the year of the deal. CJ may be slightly overpaid, but his deal is not nearly as egregious as others. This isn't 2015.

 

[twobullz]

Blake Griffin is the 8th highest paid, K Love is the 20th highest paid Where did they come in on ESPN's top 100 player list?

 

[handiman]

How else do you judge a player's contract? Superstars make 40+, All Stars make 30+, fringe guys make 29-35 depending on the year of the deal. CJ may be slightly overpaid, but his deal is not nearly as egregious as others. This isn't 2015.

View attachment 35428

Guys on that list who I would not want at those numbers over CJ: Westbrook, Wall, Griffin, Klay, Conley, Kemba, Tobias, Kyrie, Love, Wiggins. Iffy: CP3, Middleton, Lowry, Porzingis. That's 11-14 of 26 ahead of him. Really puts things in perspective.

 

[Buffalo Custard]

How else do you judge a player's contract? Superstars make 40+, All Stars make 30+, fringe guys make 29-35 depending on the year of the deal. CJ may be slightly overpaid, but his deal is not nearly as egregious as others. This isn't 2015.

View attachment 35428

My criteria? If CJ is your 2nd best player does his contract interfere with you building a contender around Dame? I believe it does. YMMV.

 

[illmatic99]

Guys on that list who I would not want at those numbers over CJ: Westbrook, Wall, Griffin, Klay, Conley, Kemba, Tobias, Kyrie, Love, Wiggins. Iffy: CP3, Middleton, Lowry, Porzingis. That's 11-14 of 26 ahead of him. Really puts things in perspective.

Exactly, and our books are somewhat in balance by having Nurk getting only 12 mil/yr.

 

[illmatic99]

My criteria? If CJ is your 2nd best player does his contract interfere with you building a contender around Dame? I believe it does. YMMV.

And it's mitigated by Nurk making only 12. Our top three consisting of a superstar + 2 fringe stars add up to 72 mil. That's peanuts in today's NBA, and does not hinder our ability to build a solid/contending team around Dame whatsoever.

 

[Buffalo Custard]

Guys on that list who I would not want at those numbers over CJ: Westbrook, Wall, Griffin, Klay, Conley, Kemba, Tobias, Kyrie, Love, Wiggins. Iffy: CP3, Middleton, Lowry, Porzingis. That's 11-14 of 26 ahead of him. Really puts things in perspective.

Just playing Devil's advocate here, but how many guys are on that list due to injury issues? Was Brandon Roy over-paid?

 

[Scalma]

Guys on that list who I would not want at those numbers over CJ: Westbrook, Wall, Griffin, Klay, Conley, Kemba, Tobias, Kyrie, Love, Wiggins. Iffy: CP3, Middleton, Lowry, Porzingis. That's 11-14 of 26 ahead of him. Really puts things in perspective.

I would take all those guys on a team (operative word being a as I’m not talking about just Portland) over CJ outside of love,Wiggins, and possibly Griffin. And two of those are only because of injuries.

 

[illmatic99]

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