Game Thread 2023-24 Game #22 - BLAZERS @ CLIPPERS - DECEMBER 11, 2023 - MONDAY - 7:30 PM PST - ROOT

[B-Roy]

Ok, so I went back and watched it again... Like I posted in real time, Ant made a bad pass attempting to force to it Sharpe instead of taking a very makeable shot for him. It was a bad choice on his part. He should've shot it.

Even Lamar Hurd pointed out that Ant had a left handed layup that he passed up.

 

[B-Roy]

I understand people have their biases, but watching Ant has been a breath of fresh air after watching the 20 or so games without him. You're telling me we got better shots with Grant barreling ISOs, Ayton having no space to even catch in traffic, and Sharpe giving up the ball. Like watching the 30th ranked offense wasn't eye gouging enough.

Blazers as a team had an ORTG of 106 before Ant came back. They have an ORTG of 120 with Ant. Beyond that, the offense just looks way better with Ant in there through the eye test. Rewatch the games and see how many times Ant makes a pass to the short roll and the Blazers play 4 on 3. I wish I had second spectrum but I'm willing to bet our expected shot percentage with Ant has been much higher than without him.

This is coming from someone who wasn't even a fan of Ant last year. He was decidedly mediocre playing next to Dame, but he makes way more sense at PG than SG.

 

[Tince]

I understand people have their biases, but watching Ant has been a breath of fresh air after watching the 20 or so games without him. You're telling me we got better shots with Grant barreling ISOs, Ayton having no space to even catch in traffic, and Sharpe giving up the ball. Like watching the 30th ranked offense wasn't eye gouging enough.

Blazers as a team had an ORTG of 106 before Ant came back. They have an ORTG of 120 with Ant. Beyond that, the offense just looks way better with Ant in there through the eye test. Rewatch the games and see how many times Ant makes a pass to the short roll and the Blazers play 4 on 3. I wish I had second spectrum but I'm willing to bet our expected shot percentage with Ant has been much higher than without him.

This is coming from someone who wasn't even a fan of Ant last year. He was decidedly mediocre playing next to Dame, but he makes way more sense at PG than SG.

Well said, I agree. I think Ant, Sharpe, Grant, etc all have some real strengths and obvious weaknesses.

I'm guessing Ant is going to have some real bad games where it'll be real easy to bash him (as will everyone else). Last night, he provided us 1.65pts/attempt while getting the most defensive attention from the Clippers (who have some high quality defenders), so seeking out reasons to bash him yesterday just seemed silly to me.

I still contend it's possible to think Sharpe and Ant are good enough players that we don't need to bash one to try and prop the other up.

 

[Natebishop3]

Scoot had his best game, but he makes me so nervous. He's like a poor man's young Russell Westbrook: non-stop downhill with kind of sloppy handle and an ugly jump shot that he has way more confidence in than anyone watching.

Scoot's shot isn't amazing, but come on..... Amen Thompson has an ugly jump shot. Aminu had an ugly jump shot. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had an UGLY jump shot. I don't think Scoot has an ugly jump shot by any means.

 

[Natebishop3]

I understand people have their biases, but watching Ant has been a breath of fresh air after watching the 20 or so games without him. You're telling me we got better shots with Grant barreling ISOs, Ayton having no space to even catch in traffic, and Sharpe giving up the ball. Like watching the 30th ranked offense wasn't eye gouging enough.

Blazers as a team had an ORTG of 106 before Ant came back. They have an ORTG of 120 with Ant. Beyond that, the offense just looks way better with Ant in there through the eye test. Rewatch the games and see how many times Ant makes a pass to the short roll and the Blazers play 4 on 3. I wish I had second spectrum but I'm willing to bet our expected shot percentage with Ant has been much higher than without him.

This is coming from someone who wasn't even a fan of Ant last year. He was decidedly mediocre playing next to Dame, but he makes way more sense at PG than SG.

That's all fine. Yes, he's playing well overall. Our team has better spacing with him on the floor and once Grant/Ayton/Brogdon come back, I think the team should snag a couple wins.

BUT I was merely pointing out that he seems to go to shit in the 4th quarter. You brought up that he's only 24, but Dame had many game winners by the time he was 24. I'm not seeing the cold blooded closer in Simons that we had in Dame, and that's fine. Not everyone can be Damian Lillard. He's a rare and special player. Arguably the most clutch player in the history of the game. With that said, if Simons isn't Dame, he needs to pass the fucking ball. We don't need him going 1 on 5 in the 4th quarter if he's going to shoot 30% from the floor and turn the ball over 2-3 times in crunch time. He has to adapt.

 

[stampedehero]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nb...S&cvid=4495f6f4bba24ce8995c1e659f609980&ei=32

 

[Natebishop3]

Here is Simons' breakdown by quarter. The stuff that stands out is that he does his best work in the third quarter and that 45% of his shots in the 2nd and 3rd quarters are assisted. That number tanks down to 25% in the 4th quarter when he tries to go MeJ. His two worst quarters are the 1st and 4th where his assisted shots go down. So clearly our offense changes and/or Simons changes what he's doing.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Here is Simons' breakdown by quarter. The stuff that stands out is that he does his best work in the third quarter and that 45% of his shots in the 2nd and 3rd quarters are assisted. That number tanks down to 25% in the 4th quarter when he tries to go MeJ. His two worst quarters are the 1st and 4th where his assisted shots go down. So clearly our offense changes and/or Simons changes what he's doing.

View attachment 60585

This is pretty clear and pretty damning. Hopefully the player and coach are smart enough to implement adjustments based on this unmistakable data.

 

[Natebishop3]

This is pretty clear and pretty damning. Hopefully the player and coach are smart enough to implement adjustments based on this unmistakable data.

I'd have to try to dig it up, but I'd also wager that the second and third quarters are probably when Simons plays the most minutes with Scoot.

 

[wizenheimer]

Do you want me to tell you who averages more assists and also less turnovers per/36 minutes between Ant and Sharpe?

Spoiler: You don't.

Sharpe averages 0.238 assists/FGA
Ant averages 0.235 assists/FGA

suggesting that Sharpe is slightly more inclined to pass than shoot over Ant

Sharpe averages an ast/usg ratio of .687
Ant averages an ast/usg ratio of .827

Ant's assist rate is 26.9%; Sharpe's is 15.6%. Of course, Ant (according to bbref) has spent 54% of his career playing PG so he should have a lot higher assist rate than a 20 year old SG. Ant's 26.9% assist rate is significantly less than Brogdon at 36.9% and Mays at 35.9%. And that brings up the point that Ant's assist rate is almost certainly skewed because he hasn't had to share the floor with Brogdon, Grant, and Ayton the last 3 games. When he did share the floor in game 1 his assist rate was 21%. On the other hand Sharpe has shared the floor with those three players so his assist rate would logically be lower

when Ant did share the floor with the 3 missing players, his usage rate was 23.5%. After the last 3 games, his usage rate is 32.5%. For reference, Dame had exactly one season, last season, with a usage rate over 31.5%

worth mentioning sample size again. Ant has only played 4 games so a good game or bad game can significantly change his numbers. For example, going into last night's game Ant's TS% was .565 and his FT Rate was .191. After last night, his TS% is .595 and his FT Rate is .294

 

[theprunetang]

This is pretty clear and pretty damning. Hopefully the player and coach are smart enough to implement adjustments based on this unmistakable data.

It actually isn't though. Yet. Four games is a ridiculous sample size. Something to keep an eye on, but four games hardly build a cohesive narrative, let alone something that is damning.

 

[Tince]

Sharpe averages 0.238 assists/FGA
Ant averages 0.235 assists/FGA

suggesting that Sharpe is slightly more inclined to pass than shoot over Ant

Sharpe averages an ast/usg ratio of .687
Ant averages an ast/usg ratio of .827

Ant's assist rate is 26.9%; Sharpe's is 15.6%. Of course, Ant (according to bbref) has spent 54% of his career playing PG so he should have a lot higher assist rate than a 20 year old SG. Ant's 26.9% assist rate is significantly less than Brogdon at 36.9% and Mays at 35.9%. And that brings up the point that Ant's assist rate is almost certainly skewed because he hasn't had to share the floor with Brogdon, Grant, and Ayton the last 3 games. When he did share the floor in game 1 his assist rate was 21%. On the other hand Sharpe has shared the floor with those three players so his assist rate would logically be lower

when Ant did share the floor with the 3 missing players, his usage rate was 23.5%. After the last 3 games, his usage rate is 32.5%. For reference, Dame had exactly one season, last season, with a usage rate over 31.5%

worth mentioning sample size again. Ant has only played 4 games so a good game or bad game can significantly change his numbers. For example, going into last night's game Ant's TS% was .565 and his FT Rate was .191. After last night, his TS% is .595 and his FT Rate is .294

All good stuff and I agree.

Which goes to my original stance: Sharpe and Ant are both good. Sharpe and Ant provide different strengths/weaknesses. Sharpe is far more likely to defer. And as your assist per FGA metric points out, to call one a ball hog and the other unselfish, would be misleading at best.

Most importantly: We don't have to bash Ant to praise Sharpe.

 

[Tince]

It actually isn't though. Yet. Four games is a ridiculous sample size. Something to keep an eye on, but four games hardly build a cohesive narrative, let alone something that is damning.

For some, the narrative was established prior to the season starting.

 

[Natebishop3]

For some, the narrative was established prior to the season starting.

I’m not aware of a 4th quarter narrative existing before I posted it.

 

[Tince]

I’m not aware of a 4th quarter narrative existing before I posted it.

I was referring to the icing out of Sharpe narrative and Ant is a ball-hog narrative. I replied to the incorrect post.

You might have been the first to say Ant has sucked in the 4th since returning.

 

[Natebishop3]

I was referring to the icing out of Sharpe narrative and Ant is a ball-hog narrative. I replied to the incorrect post.

You might have been the first to say Ant has sucked in the 4th since returning.

Ah yes. Those have been around for a while. I actually don’t think Sharpe is being frozen out, but I do think Simons can be a ball hog.

 

[RR7]

I’m not aware of a 4th quarter narrative existing before I posted it.

The problem I see with it is, like I showed with Lillard, it's not something exclusive to Simons, as if it is like he's wilting under pressure of the 4th or something. But throwing it out there with no real context to it is another way to bag on him "going Me-J" for some.
Lebron James in his illustrious 20 year career has only twice improved his FG% in the 4th. 4 times has improved his 3pt% in the 4th. And only once increased his AST%.
I bet if you go through other tar players, you'll likely see that hold the same way.
Would we prefer he increases everything in the 4th? Of course! But this is generally the way the NBA goes, and especially with star players in tight games. Not calling Ant a star, but he was/is playing the role of one for us.
So there isn't really a relative narrative there. Unless it's just to say shots are harder to come by, and defenses tend to step up in the 4th quarter.

 

[blazerfan11]

Sharpe needs to be a bigger part of the offense as the game comes to a close.

That didn't happen. I don't blame Simons for that. That's Billups' job.

Let's look at the last 4:30 of the game.

4:35. Sharpe brings ball up the court to 3-point line. Passes to Simons for made 3-point shot after 2 dribbles and screen by Reath on Kawhi.

4:09 Simons gets rebound and brings the ball up the court. Dribbles to the 3-point line and badly (hit side of rim) misses a 3-point shot.

3:51. Sharpe lets ball roll to half-court line, picks up the ball and passes to Simons. Simons drives toward hoop, throws a pass which was deflected (could have been a horrible live-ball turnover since it was being passed back out) but gets to Reath at 3-point line.
Reath passes to Sharpe on the right corner. Sharpe pump-fakes Zubac who goes flying past him, dribbles forwards and takes an uncontested 2-point shot. Blazers lead 121-120.

3:15 After a blocked shot, Sharpe takes the ball up the court, passes to Simons at 3-point line. Simons dribbles backward then forward past James Harden, and takes a floater which hits the back of the rim.

2:44. Simons takes ball from baseline, stops at the 3-point line, then dribbles at the hoop, where he is met by PG with good defensive position outside the restricted area.
PG goes up and contacts Simons, Simons throws up a "shot" which hits the backboard above the white square.
Sharpe was wide open in the left corner. Nobody near Sharpe.

2:07 Simons brings the ball up after an charge by Kawhi Leonard. Drives down the middle of the lane and hits a layup high off the glass. Blazers lead, 123-122.

1:30 Sharpe rebounds ball, brings it up to half court, passes it to Simons standing at half court. Simons dribbles the ball straight ahead down the left side of the lane.
Simons goes up in the air in the paint an attempts to throw a pass to Shaedon Sharpe in the right corner. Simons appears to be looking in Sharpe's direction before going up in the air
and the pass is deflected by Kawhi Leonard for a steal.
The turnover turns into a fast break for the Clippers, where Matisse Thybulle fouls Terrance Mann.
The Clippers were struggling to score, so Simons' turnover was a big gift for them, as Mann makes both free throws and the Clippers take the lead, 124-123.

1:13 Simons dribbles the ball up the court slowly, then throws a pass to Reath, who throws a pass to Camara running the left baseline.
Camara attempts a reverse layup on the right side, which is blocked by Zubac.
The problem here is Reath. He needed to stop at the free-throw line, but instead dribbled halfway into the paint before passing the ball to Camara.
All Zubac had to do was turn around to block Camara's shot.
Bad execution of a good idea.

0:29 (Blazers down by 3) Simons dribbles ball up court, goes down the right sideline, Harden pokes the ball which goes out of bounds off of Simons. Turnover.
(after a review called by the Clippers)

Game over, effectively.

In the last 4:30, Simons had 2 good possessions (3 pointer and layup) , and 5 bad possessions: 2 badly missed shots, 1 horribly missed shot, 1 bad turnover, and 1 horrible turnover.


Shaedon Sharpe attempted (and made) one shot during this time. What the hell.

This is exactly what I was hoping we would never or rarely see this season.

I didn't even expect to see it without Ayton, Brogdon, and Grant.

Sharpe can create his own shot and shoot from anywhere, and I believe is a better end-of-game option than Simons due to his length and calmness.

Thybulle is a legitimate 3-point shooter (shooting 3-5 against the Clippers).


Simons had the ball for the entirety of this possession, which ended in him crashing into a vertical Paul George (outside the restricted area) and Simons throwing the ball at the top white stripe on the backboard.

I think he should have had a clear view to Sharpe and Thybulle, though there is the "Claw" who was watching the passing lane.