Game Thread 2023-24 GAME #27 - BLAZERS VS WIZARDS - DECEMBER 21, 2023 - 7:00 PM PST - ROOT

[OneSport3]

I'm not sure who "can't stand him", but in comparing those 2 players, offensively, they are both very good. But one has a brutal drtg of 121 and the other is close to average at 115. That is a massive difference. for 1/2 of the game. For too long, many have been okay with offense only guards and don't worry about the defensive side for that player or the affect it has on the rest of the team. And that is fine if contending isn't an issue.

It takes both sides of the ball....and historically, some size to be able to contend. It doesn't seem too much to prefer (vs can't stand him} that our 'top' player be someone who can do both.

So you’re telling me the fact that Maxey plays on the #2 rated defense in the league with Joel Embiid anchoring the back line doesn’t help his rating?

Have you even watched Ant this season without your bias blinding you? By no means is Ant an elite defender but he’s definitely improved on that end. He isn’t the defensive sieve he once was anymore. Not long ago, teams used to hunt him mercilessly on defense. Luka for one would hunt for him nonstop. But in the 2 recent games vs Dallas, you didn’t even see it that much.

 

[wizenheimer]

So you’re telling me the fact that Maxey plays on the #2 rated defense in the league with Joel Embiid anchoring the back line doesn’t help his rating?

Have you even watched Ant this season without your bias blinding you? By no means is Ant an elite defender but he’s definitely improved on that end. He isn’t the defensive sieve he once was anymore. Not long ago, teams used to hunt him mercilessly on defense. Luka for one would hunt for him nonstop. But in the 2 recent games vs Dallas, you didn’t even see it that much.

I don't think I agree about Ant's defense improving a lot. He's a little better, yes. But a little better than terrible isn't something to celebrate. Among rotation players, he's tied with Scoot for 9th in defensive rating. And he's 9th in DBPM; only Scoot is worse. And there's no denying that Portland's defense took a major nose dive when Ant cam back

I've seen enough from Ant to be OK with him as the PG. I think a defense can be ok with a weak defender at PG; but not an undersized weak defender at SG. Of course, it you pencil in Ant as the PGOTF, then Portland kind of wasted a 3rd pick on Scoot

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

This was one of those games where I knew there were going to be people pissed no matter the outcome.

We lose and everything is wrong with this team.

We win and are not tanking properly.

On the plus side, got my third free T-shirt last night. First two were mostly unwearable. This one has the new mascot on it. I have long been in favor of getting rid of Blaze so I love anything to do with getting rid of him.

 

[MickZagger]

They definitely should shop Simon’s at the deadline. Mainly to see what they can fetch.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Of course, it you pencil in Ant as the PGOTF, then Portland kind of wasted a 3rd pick on Scoot

The second clause may be accurate even without the first.

 

[kjironman1]

Starting to sound like losing is wearing the Blazer Fanbase down a bit. Wonder how it will sound when they are still losing next year also 2024-25. How about 2025-26?
Maybe they can get Dame to come back in 2027?

 

[wizenheimer]

The second clause may be accurate even without the first.

true, but even as a non-certified debbie-downer, I'm still a long ways from heading that direction

 

[Haakzilla]

I cant see how anyone can watch Grant closely and think that he's a good defender... he's mediocre at best.

...and his "rebounding" is even worse!! Watch the Wizards final couple of misses when he just stands under the hoop and watches as Wizards easily secure offensive boards -- I'd argue the game would have been one if Camara or Walker had been there instead

 

[B-Roy]

I've seen enough from Ant to be OK with him as the PG. I think a defense can be ok with a weak defender at PG; but not an undersized weak defender at SG. Of course, it you pencil in Ant as the PGOTF, then Portland kind of wasted a 3rd pick on Scoot

Scoot has 4 years to prove he can be a better player/fit than Ant. But either way they have time to bring him along slowly instead of throwing him into the fire. Seen too many guys like Emmanuel Mudiay or Dennis Smith Jr. shoved into the de-facto starter role when they weren't ready and floundered.

 

[kjironman1]

They definitely should shop Simon’s at the deadline. Mainly to see what they can fetch.

Yeah keep getting rid of those guys we have developed. That's always worked well because guys who score 40+ in this league are a dime a dozen in every draft.

Sorry for the heavy snark. I couldn't resist.

 

[e_blazer]

I'm not sure who "can't stand him", but in comparing those 2 players, offensively, they are both very good. But one has a brutal drtg of 121 and the other is close to average at 115. That is a massive difference. for 1/2 of the game. For too long, many have been okay with offense only guards and don't worry about the defensive side for that player or the affect it has on the rest of the team. And that is fine if contending isn't an issue.

It takes both sides of the ball....and historically, some size to be able to contend. It doesn't seem too much to prefer (vs can't stand him} that our 'top' player be someone who can do both.

Just curious, but what do you think Maxey’s DRtg would be if he played on the Blazers without Embiid backing up every blown defensive cover? According to Statmuse, Ant’s drtg so far this season is 18.8. Is the improvement (minimal though it may be) because he’s working harder on that end this year, or because Ayton is a slightly better rim protector than Nurk was? DRtg really measures a team’s defensive ability when a given player is on the court. The Blazers pretty much blow on defense (though less so this year) so I’m not sure it means much when used the way you’re using it here.

 

[kjironman1]

The second clause may be accurate even without the first.

Hey now just calm down there Bucko! When did platypuses get so darn negative?

 

[wizenheimer]

Scoot has 4 years to prove he can be a better player/fit than Ant. But either way they have time to bring him along slowly instead of throwing him into the fire. Seen too many guys like Emmanuel Mudiay or Dennis Smith Jr. shoved into the de-facto starter role when they weren't ready and floundered.

that can be true at the same time what I said was true...

if Portland was penciling in Ant as the SGOTF, they are fucking idiots who can't learn the lesson of the past 8-9 seasons about the importance of size and defense on the wings. But if they were saying Ant was the PGOTF they were really fucking their value equations by spending a 3rd pick on Scoot. I get the BPA rule, but I think that's a rule that has plenty of exceptions. This might have been one of them

 

[wizenheimer]

Just curious, but what do you think Maxey’s DRtg would be if he played on the Blazers without Embiid backing up every blown defensive cover? According to Statmuse, Ant’s drtg so far this season is 18.8. Is the improvement (minimal though it may be) because he’s working harder on that end this year, or because Ayton is a slightly better rim protector than Nurk was? DRtg really measures a team’s defensive ability when a given player is on the court. The Blazers pretty much blow on defense (though less so this year) so I’m not sure it means much when used the way you’re using it here.

Ant's defensive rating this season is 3.7 points worse than the team. Last year, it was 4.2 points worse than the team (bbref). So there appears to be a little improvement. Now, he's not playing with Embiid; but he is playing with Ayton, Camara, Thybulle and Walker

 

[B-Roy]

that can be true at the same time what I said was true...

if Portland was penciling in Ant as the SGOTF, they are fucking idiots who can't learn the lesson of the past 8-9 seasons about the importance of size and defense on the wings. But if they were saying Ant was the PGOTF they were really fucking their value equations by spending a 3rd pick on Scoot. I get the BPA rule, but I think that's a rule that has plenty of exceptions. This might have been one of them

BPA is saying they can't predict how players will develop and they want to take as many stabs at getting a top 10 player as possible. I think that's a totally reasonable reason for taking Scoot. I think the only other argument is that Amen Thompson would have fit with any lineup and arguably has an even higher ceiling than Scoot. Other than that, I don't think there's anyone else they should have considered taking, so I'm fine with the decision.

 

[B-Roy]

Yeesh, Scoot has the worst defensive rating and BY FAR the worst offensive rating of anyone playing rotation minutes. 88 ORTG and he's playing 26.3 MPG? How is that even possible?

 

[wizenheimer]

BPA is saying they can't predict how players will develop and they want to take as many stabs at getting a top 10 player as possible. I think that's a totally reasonable reason for taking Scoot. I think the only other argument is that Amen Thompson would have fit with any lineup and arguably has an even higher ceiling than Scoot. Other than that, I don't think there's anyone else they should have considered taking.

didn't have to take a player, they could have traded down, or traded out. A lot of teams seemed pretty interested in Scoot

I agree it doesn't make a lot of difference this season. Portland is going nowhere. But if guys like you and OneSport are going to take every opportunity to sing about the virtues of Simons, it's OK to add some context

 

[e_blazer]

Ant's defensive rating this season is 3.7 points worse than the team. Last year, it was 4.2 points worse than the team (bbref). So there appears to be a little improvement. Now, he's not playing with Embiid; but he is playing with Ayton, Camara, Thybulle and Walker

I wasn't trying to paint Ant as becoming a defensive wizard; he's never going to be that. Just saying that comparing the defensive capabilities of different players on different teams by using DRtg is inherently flawed.

Comparing with guys in similar positions on the same team is a reasonable exercise. Thybulle - 112.3, Sharpe - 117.4, Brogdon - 118.1, Ant - 118.8, and Scoot - 119.5. Two conclusions: outside of Thybulle, the Blazers don't have any great backcourt defenders; and the Blazers' overall defense still blows.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

So you’re telling me the fact that Maxey plays on the #2 rated defense in the league with Joel Embiid anchoring the back line doesn’t help his rating?

Have you even watched Ant this season without your bias blinding you? By no means is Ant an elite defender but he’s definitely improved on that end. He isn’t the defensive sieve he once was anymore. Not long ago, teams used to hunt him mercilessly on defense. Luka for one would hunt for him nonstop. But in the 2 recent games vs Dallas, you didn’t even see it that much.

Completely agree.

Ant is not perfect, but his is MUCH improved. I see Grant and/or Ayton out of position (or switching unnecessarily) causing a team defense break down far more often.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Yeah keep getting rid of those guys we have developed. That's always worked well because guys who score 40+ in this league are a dime a dozen in every draft.

Sorry for the heavy snark. I couldn't resist.

I wouldn't want to give him away but plenty of good players get traded after the team developed them. This is not logical. If there's a good deal that addresses a position of need then we should be looking at it.

It's not about Ant, it's about the long-term viability of this team and how it wants to play.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

or because Ayton is a slightly better rim protector than Nurk was?

This assumption that Ayton is a rim protector is absolutely false.
From a defensive perspective, Nurk is the better player (unless he's out on a guard after a switch).

 

[tlongII]

Starting to sound like losing is wearing the Blazer Fanbase down a bit. Wonder how it will sound when they are still losing next year also 2024-25. How about 2025-26?
Maybe they can get Dame to come back in 2027?

We'll start a "SELL THE TEAM!" chant.

 

[e_blazer]

This assumption that Ayton is a rim protector is absolutely false.
From a defensive perspective, Nurk is the better player (unless he's out on a guard after a switch).

Maybe. My impression is that Ayton rotates quicker. He's also been more available to play than Nurk was.

 

[HailBlazers]

I cant see how anyone can watch Grant closely and think that he's a good defender... he's mediocre at best.

Maybe because he's the only one to block KD this season, twice...

 

[beast blazer]

I'd like to know how that stat calculates "lost points"

Napkin math. 2pts * FGA per game * how much they are under the league average in TS%.

It's not a perfect formula but it should give a pretty close idea of how many points they'd score if they shot at the league average TS%.

 

[wizenheimer]

I wasn't trying to paint Ant as becoming a defensive wizard; he's never going to be that. Just saying that comparing the defensive capabilities of different players on different teams by using DRtg is inherently flawed..

I agree. Defensive rating is more of a team and rotation centered stat

I think the only somewhat fair gauge of the rating for players is comparing the individual rating to the team rating. Kind of a mini +/- gauge. That's one gauge that seems to match the eyeball fairly well

 

[blazerfan11]

As we know , Billups took out Jabari Walker Jr. with about 3:00 left in the game.
It must have been in his rule book. We struggling against the lowly Wizards, but I can't let Walker finish the game.
It has to be a complete loss.

So, what did Grant do in those 3 minutes?
- He let Deni Avdija slip past him for a put-back shot.
- He committed an offensive foul.
- He faced Kyle Kuzma well enough near the hoop, but after Kuzma put up his shot (which missed) Kuzma slipped right past Grant and put the ball in.
+ He defended Kuzma well, making him miss a long 2-point attempt from the right side.
+ Got the 6th foul on Daniel Gafford.
- However, he missed a free throw that would have tied the game.

Then, of course, he does what Jabari Walker never would have done, drives to the hoop and throws up a shot off the backboard to lose the game.

 

[blazerfan11]

Maybe because he's the only one to block KD this season, twice...

Just not a great rebounder.

I don't know if that's counted as defense, but defensive rebounding should be.

 

[blazerkor]

As we know , Billups took out Jabari Walker Jr. with about 3:00 left in the game.
It must have been in his rule book. We struggling against the lowly Wizards, but I can't let Walker finish the game.
It has to be a complete loss.

So, what did Grant do in those 3 minutes?
- He let Deni Avdija slip past him for a put-back shot.
- He committed an offensive foul.
- He faced Kyle Kuzma well enough near the hoop, but after Kuzma put up his shot (which missed) Kuzma slipped right past Grant and put the ball in.
+ He defended Kuzma well, making him miss a long 2-point attempt from the right side.
+ Got the 6th foul on Daniel Gafford.
- However, he missed a free throw that would have tied the game.

Then, of course, he does what Jabari Walker never would have done, drives to the hoop and throws up a shot off the backboard to lose the game.

Jabari's dad's name is Samaki so I don't know where the Jr. came from.

I think the idea that Jabari is better than Jerami in any facet of the game outside of rebounding is laughable. There are so many facets of the game, so Jerami was definitely the right player to have out there... if it had to be a decision between the two.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think the idea that Jabari is better than Jerami in any facet of the game outside of rebounding is laughable.

Is humility a facet of the game?