Natebishop3
Don't tread on me!
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This poster on Reddit did all the work.
Want to take the time to look at where we sit after the draft. Player salaries, cap holds, future picks, etc. All values from spotrac (amazing resource) unless specified otherwise.
TLDR: Set up to pay the tax. We have a lot of players now. A bunch of guards and we actually have wings but they aren't that good. Need a big badly. I did not put any FA signings besides our own or trades in. This post is meant to set up that conversation by outlining how much room we're expected to have to maneuver those.
Salary Cap: $136m
Luxury Tax: $165m (121.3%)
Hard cap / Tax Apron level one: $172m (126.47%)
Currently rostered players: Salary (23-24 cap %) Italics for non-guaranteed money
Lillard: $45.64m (33.56%)
Ant : $24.11m (17.73%)
Nurk: $16.875m (12.41%)
Shaedon: $6.314m (4.64%)
Nas: $6.250m (4.60%)
Knox: $3m (2.21%) Team Option deadline of June 29 - Could decline but I don't see it
Keon Johnson: $2.809m (2.07%)
Watford: $1.836m (1.35%) guarantees on June 30
Jabari Walker: $1.72m (1.26%) guarantees on July 20
Jeenathan Williams: $1.72m (1.26%) guarantees on August 1 - Likely cut
Total: $110.274m (81.1%) - 10 Players
Dead Cap: Used cap space that we're fucked for
Andrew Nicholson (still): $2.845m (2.09%)
Eric Bledsoe: $1.3m (0.96%)
Didi Louzada: $268k (0.2%)
Total: $4.414m (3.25%) note: Spotrac math was not mathing on the %s. I calculated the %s here myself because for some reason they had the total at 2.02%.
Running Total: $114.688m (84.33%)
Cap Holds: Placeholders for pending free agents. If we renounce the cap hold, the place on our cap is gone but we also lose bird rights, meaning we cant go over the cap to re-sign them.
Draft picks are included here.
Scoot Henderson: $9.77m (7.18%)
Kris Murray: $2.847m (2.09%)
Rupert: $0 (0%) 2nd rounders are not guaranteed and entirely negotiable. I think we could bring him on a two-way contract here since we now have 3 spots, our own G-League team (!!), and they don't count towards the cap
Running Total: $127.305 (93.6%) remaining cap space: $8.695m (6.4%) - 12 players, at most 13
Free Agents: I'm only including players I think are likely to re-sign or that we should want to bring back. Feel free to argue about a specific player if the are/aren't mentioned. Players can be paid up to their max, which is determined by their years of service (YOS). This is their cap hold. Not the same. Keep that in mind.
Jerami Grant: $31.433m (23.12%) - Should sign for less than his hold for his average annual value (AAV)
Cam Reddish: $17.864m (13.2%) - Could see us re-signing him, not even close to this number, if not renouncing him. Likely to walk.
Thybulle: $13.16m (9.7%) - Similar to Reddish, but more likely to re-sign, still not at that value. Don't see us renouncing this one though.
Winslow: $5.327m (4%) - We should be renouncing him but could see a want to bring him back on a minimum. Likely gone.
Drew Eubanks: $2.02m (1.5%)( - Could go either way. Cap hold isn't hurting us so no point in cutting him and he plays hard so we should bring him back around this value. Want back but might not be able to do it.
Total: $69.804m (51.33%)
Running Total: $197.109m (145%) - This is perfectly normal for the pre-FA period. We have 5 free agents that we should re-sign but all of them way below, or right at, their cap hold. Reddish and Thybulle are taking up a huge portion of that.
Exceptions: Essentially "free space". Players can be signed with some and traded into others
We only get one of these non-trade ones:
Non-Taxpayer MLE: $12.403m (9.12%) - Signed
Taxpayer MLE: $5m (3.68%) - Signed
Bi-Annual: $4.515m (3.3%) - Signed
GPII Trade exception: $8.3m (6.1%) - Traded into
Expected Outcomes: These aren't necessarily in order don't get it twisted. Also just my opinon.
So we've all seen the rumored Jerami Grant $150m/5y contract. Let's use his AAV of $30m (22%). His actual value should be less but I don't want to do that math. Thanks to /u/Arr0wmanc3r I didn't have to! His first year is $25.81m (18.98%)
Running Total: $153.115 (112.58%) - remaining Luxury Tax Space: $11.885m - 13 Players
I think we will bring back Matisse Thybulle, I just can't figure out his value at all. If anyone wants to do a better job here than me go ahead. I'm gonna just half ass it and say he signs for a bit more than Nas/Shaedon's deals, hopefully we bring him back at 3y length. Lets say $6.5m per year (4.78%).
Running Total: $159.615m (117.364%) - remaining Luxury Tax Space: $5.385m - 14 Players
Jeenathan Williams is going to be cut. There's no point in rostering him. Could see him coming back on a G-League deal. His deal is $1.72m
Running Total: $157.895 (116.1%) - Tax Space: $7.105m - 13 Players
We promised Ryan Rupert to a multi year deal but it has yet to be signed. It's not going to be by much. That's 14 players.
So here we are. A bit below luxury tax. We've got 14 Players, at the minimum, with an extra spot. We have a TPE ($8.3m) and likely the TPMLE ($5m) left to spend. The roster as it stands is:
Guards: Dame, Ant, Sharpe, Scoot, Keon - ($88.643m 65.18%)
Wings: Grant, Thybulle, Nassir, Knox, Walker, Murray, Rupert - ($50.317m 37%) - Will change when Rupert's numbers come in. Not by much.
Bigs: Nurk, Watford ($18.711m 13.75%)
Clear need is another big. I didn't forget about Drew just don't think it's in the cards for us with our exceptions. Long shot he signs for the TPMLE, I don't think he's quite worth that money.
Want to take the time to look at where we sit after the draft. Player salaries, cap holds, future picks, etc. All values from spotrac (amazing resource) unless specified otherwise.
TLDR: Set up to pay the tax. We have a lot of players now. A bunch of guards and we actually have wings but they aren't that good. Need a big badly. I did not put any FA signings besides our own or trades in. This post is meant to set up that conversation by outlining how much room we're expected to have to maneuver those.
Salary Cap: $136m
Luxury Tax: $165m (121.3%)
Hard cap / Tax Apron level one: $172m (126.47%)
Currently rostered players: Salary (23-24 cap %) Italics for non-guaranteed money
Lillard: $45.64m (33.56%)
Ant : $24.11m (17.73%)
Nurk: $16.875m (12.41%)
Shaedon: $6.314m (4.64%)
Nas: $6.250m (4.60%)
Knox: $3m (2.21%) Team Option deadline of June 29 - Could decline but I don't see it
Keon Johnson: $2.809m (2.07%)
Watford: $1.836m (1.35%) guarantees on June 30
Jabari Walker: $1.72m (1.26%) guarantees on July 20
Jeenathan Williams: $1.72m (1.26%) guarantees on August 1 - Likely cut
Total: $110.274m (81.1%) - 10 Players
Dead Cap: Used cap space that we're fucked for
Andrew Nicholson (still): $2.845m (2.09%)
Eric Bledsoe: $1.3m (0.96%)
Didi Louzada: $268k (0.2%)
Total: $4.414m (3.25%) note: Spotrac math was not mathing on the %s. I calculated the %s here myself because for some reason they had the total at 2.02%.
Running Total: $114.688m (84.33%)
Cap Holds: Placeholders for pending free agents. If we renounce the cap hold, the place on our cap is gone but we also lose bird rights, meaning we cant go over the cap to re-sign them.
Draft picks are included here.
Scoot Henderson: $9.77m (7.18%)
Kris Murray: $2.847m (2.09%)
Rupert: $0 (0%) 2nd rounders are not guaranteed and entirely negotiable. I think we could bring him on a two-way contract here since we now have 3 spots, our own G-League team (!!), and they don't count towards the cap
Running Total: $127.305 (93.6%) remaining cap space: $8.695m (6.4%) - 12 players, at most 13
Free Agents: I'm only including players I think are likely to re-sign or that we should want to bring back. Feel free to argue about a specific player if the are/aren't mentioned. Players can be paid up to their max, which is determined by their years of service (YOS). This is their cap hold. Not the same. Keep that in mind.
Jerami Grant: $31.433m (23.12%) - Should sign for less than his hold for his average annual value (AAV)
Cam Reddish: $17.864m (13.2%) - Could see us re-signing him, not even close to this number, if not renouncing him. Likely to walk.
Thybulle: $13.16m (9.7%) - Similar to Reddish, but more likely to re-sign, still not at that value. Don't see us renouncing this one though.
Winslow: $5.327m (4%) - We should be renouncing him but could see a want to bring him back on a minimum. Likely gone.
Drew Eubanks: $2.02m (1.5%)( - Could go either way. Cap hold isn't hurting us so no point in cutting him and he plays hard so we should bring him back around this value. Want back but might not be able to do it.
Total: $69.804m (51.33%)
Running Total: $197.109m (145%) - This is perfectly normal for the pre-FA period. We have 5 free agents that we should re-sign but all of them way below, or right at, their cap hold. Reddish and Thybulle are taking up a huge portion of that.
Exceptions: Essentially "free space". Players can be signed with some and traded into others
We only get one of these non-trade ones:
Non-Taxpayer MLE: $12.403m (9.12%) - Signed
Taxpayer MLE: $5m (3.68%) - Signed
Bi-Annual: $4.515m (3.3%) - Signed
GPII Trade exception: $8.3m (6.1%) - Traded into
Expected Outcomes: These aren't necessarily in order don't get it twisted. Also just my opinon.
So we've all seen the rumored Jerami Grant $150m/5y contract. Let's use his AAV of $30m (22%). His actual value should be less but I don't want to do that math. Thanks to /u/Arr0wmanc3r I didn't have to! His first year is $25.81m (18.98%)
Running Total: $153.115 (112.58%) - remaining Luxury Tax Space: $11.885m - 13 Players
I think we will bring back Matisse Thybulle, I just can't figure out his value at all. If anyone wants to do a better job here than me go ahead. I'm gonna just half ass it and say he signs for a bit more than Nas/Shaedon's deals, hopefully we bring him back at 3y length. Lets say $6.5m per year (4.78%).
Running Total: $159.615m (117.364%) - remaining Luxury Tax Space: $5.385m - 14 Players
Jeenathan Williams is going to be cut. There's no point in rostering him. Could see him coming back on a G-League deal. His deal is $1.72m
Running Total: $157.895 (116.1%) - Tax Space: $7.105m - 13 Players
We promised Ryan Rupert to a multi year deal but it has yet to be signed. It's not going to be by much. That's 14 players.
So here we are. A bit below luxury tax. We've got 14 Players, at the minimum, with an extra spot. We have a TPE ($8.3m) and likely the TPMLE ($5m) left to spend. The roster as it stands is:
Guards: Dame, Ant, Sharpe, Scoot, Keon - ($88.643m 65.18%)
Wings: Grant, Thybulle, Nassir, Knox, Walker, Murray, Rupert - ($50.317m 37%) - Will change when Rupert's numbers come in. Not by much.
Bigs: Nurk, Watford ($18.711m 13.75%)
Clear need is another big. I didn't forget about Drew just don't think it's in the cards for us with our exceptions. Long shot he signs for the TPMLE, I don't think he's quite worth that money.
