2024 NBA Draft Thread (2 Viewers)

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The "Way too Early' Draft prognostication

  • Holland

    Votes: 8 16.3%

  • Sarr

    Votes: 41 83.7%

  • Edwards

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    49
The most realistic possibility that I like so far would be reaching on Salaun at #7 and drafting Missi at #14. The more I think about it, the more I’m thinking Salaun + third best big at #14 becomes the reality barring any trades.

Salaun has the most superstar potential outside of Sarr and maybe Topic to me. This would be a move as savvy as picking Shae at #7. 6’10+ in shoes and could possibly keep growing, he isn’t 19 until August. His handle is decent for a guy his size and will eventually get better. I see a lot of promise in his shooting, he is going to eventually become a good pick and pop player. I don’t think he’s a bad defensive player, I just think he’s still a raw basketball player. I think there are going to be moments in the season where we are more impressed with Salaun’s defense than we were with Rupert’s offense last season. Salaun is going to need to spend an entire year in the GL, which I don’t mind.

Missi would make us quickly get over the fact that Salaun is in the GL though imo. Yves is going to make an impact right away. I like Missi slightly less than Mark Williams because Williams just has a ridiculous wingspan, but I think Missi will have a similar impact early.

Scoot/____/____
Shae/____/Rupert
Grant/Camara/Murray/Rupert
Camara/Walker/Grant/Murray
DA/Missi/Reath

I’d probably still want Grant here without a blue chip prospect at wing. But Ant, Brogdon, Thybulle, RobWill, I’m just asking for solid returns to fill out the roster. Black + the ‘25 DEN 1st for Ant, I’d probably take and give Black the keys at backup PG/SG.
 
In the latest episode of the The Woj Pod, which was hosted by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski from the combine, Givony said: I like this draft a lot more than 2013. I think a lot of these players are going to be good. Are any going to be superstars? Probably not. But there are going to be several All-Stars in this group, and there are going to be a lot of high-quality NBA players. When you’re drafting [top three], you want to get a franchise guy. Are any of these guys franchise players? Probably not, and that’s where people are a little bit down on this draft. Because you’re lacking that star power at the top that we typically expect. There’s not that one guy that we can latch onto, and center all of the attention on. But that’s what makes it interesting, to me. That’s what makes this draft fascinating.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
Evan Sidery: Zaccharie Risacher, who will be under heavy consideration from the Hawks and Wizards atop the 2024 NBA Draft, put together a monster outing yesterday: 28 points in 29 minutes 5/7 on 3s Risacher has received comparisons from scouts to Michael Porter Jr. due to his perimeter shooting upside at 6-foot-10. Atlanta’s decision-makers — GM Landry Fields, Assistant GM Kyle Korver, HC Quin Snyder — flew out to watch Risacher this week in France
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I had no idea that Landry Fields was Atlanta's GM. Good for him.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
In the latest episode of the The Woj Pod, which was hosted by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski from the combine, Givony said: I like this draft a lot more than 2013. I think a lot of these players are going to be good. Are any going to be superstars? Probably not. But there are going to be several All-Stars in this group, and there are going to be a lot of high-quality NBA players. When you’re drafting [top three], you want to get a franchise guy. Are any of these guys franchise players? Probably not, and that’s where people are a little bit down on this draft. Because you’re lacking that star power at the top that we typically expect. There’s not that one guy that we can latch onto, and center all of the attention on. But that’s what makes it interesting, to me. That’s what makes this draft fascinating.
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Exactly what I've been preaching to all the folks who keep repeating the "this draft sucks" talking point.
 
BankTeller said:
The most realistic possibility that I like so far would be reaching on Salaun at #7 and drafting Missi at #14. The more I think about it, the more I’m thinking Salaun + third best big at #14 becomes the reality barring any trades.

Salaun has the most superstar potential outside of Sarr and maybe Topic to me. This would be a move as savvy as picking Shae at #7. 6’10+ in shoes and could possibly keep growing, he isn’t 19 until August. His handle is decent for a guy his size and will eventually get better. I see a lot of promise in his shooting, he is going to eventually become a good pick and pop player. I don’t think he’s a bad defensive player, I just think he’s still a raw basketball player. I think there are going to be moments in the season where we are more impressed with Salaun’s defense than we were with Rupert’s offense last season. Salaun is going to need to spend an entire year in the GL, which I don’t mind.

Missi would make us quickly get over the fact that Salaun is in the GL though imo. Yves is going to make an impact right away. I like Missi slightly less than Mark Williams because Williams just has a ridiculous wingspan, but I think Missi will have a similar impact early.

Scoot/____/____
Shae/____/Rupert
Grant/Camara/Murray/Rupert
Camara/Walker/Grant/Murray
DA/Missi/Reath

I’d probably still want Grant here without a blue chip prospect at wing. But Ant, Brogdon, Thybulle, RobWill, I’m just asking for solid returns to fill out the roster. Black + the ‘25 DEN 1st for Ant, I’d probably take and give Black the keys at backup PG/SG.
Click to expand...

I really like Missi, but I think I like Ware a bit more. Ware clearly doesn't have any glaring weaknesses and can kind of do it all. Missi can be a Clint Capella type which is pretty good value.
 
AmirIcon said:
I really like Missi, but I think I like Ware a bit more. Ware clearly doesn't have any glaring weaknesses and can kind of do it all. Missi can be a Clint Capella type which is pretty good value.
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Ware’s motor worries me. It makes me think he may just turn into a Christian Wood kind of player. Don’t get me wrong, if Schmitz picks him at #14, I’ll be right here doing a complete 180 and talk about how we got a possible AS big man prospect at #14 lol.

Ultimately, if Schmitz believes his motor can be fixed, so will I. If you solve fixing his inconsistent motor, I really do think you have an AS level prospect.

Physique alone, 6’11.75 barefoot 7’4.5 wingspan 9’4.5 standing reach, he is only slightly less freakish than Mark Williams. Offensive potential looks great. If he had 75% of Sarr’s defensive potential and we think he can develop that part of his game, I would love the pick, even over Missi.
 
BankTeller said:
Ware’s motor worries me. It makes me think he may just turn into a Christian Wood kind of player. Don’t get me wrong, if Schmitz picks him at #14, I’ll be right here doing a complete 180 and talk about how we got a possible AS big man prospect at #14 lol.

Ultimately, if Schmitz believes his motor can be fixed, so will I. If you solve fixing his inconsistent motor, I really do think you have an AS level prospect.

Physique alone, 6’11.75 barefoot 7’4.5 wingspan 9’4.5 standing reach, he is only slightly less freakish than Mark Williams. Offensive potential looks great. If he had 75% of Sarr’s defensive potential and we think he can develop that part of his game, I would love the pick, even over Missi.
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I hear the motor issues were prior to going to Indiana. Even if true, I'll go with the higher ceiling guy which would be Ware.
 
AmirIcon said:
I hear the motor issues were prior to going to Indiana. Even if true, I'll go with the higher ceiling guy which would be Ware.
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Without those 'issues' he would be a top 5 pick.

The unfortunate part is motor issues are the most difficult to solve.

MickZagger said:
I’d take Ware over Clingan and Edey. He’s way more of what you want in a modern big man. In a league where spreading the floor and being able to guard multiple positions is pivotal.
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Agreed. Definitely worth the risk at #14
 
Anyone have a strong opinion on potential vs ready-now this year, seeing that it is a class that lacks star power?
 
BankTeller said:
Anyone have a strong opinion on potential vs ready-now this year, seeing that it is a class that lacks star power?
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portland can't exit the lottery cellar until they have stars. role player acquisition is already in progress and can be done later.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
Potential! N0-brainer.
Click to expand...
Samuel said:
portland can't exit the lottery cellar until they have stars. role player acquisition is already in progress and can be done later.
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Well really, imo, the biggest swing-high outcome would be us ending up with Salaun, Missi/Ware, and Comche. Missi is the only guy that make an impact his rookie year, but both Salaun and Chomche could be lotto picks if they were spend a year or two in college.

Missi or Ware would stablize the big man rotation, we stash Salaun in the GL until next season (and Comche, maybe for even as long as two seasons) and see how Camara, Walker, Murray, and Rupert look with Grant as the main forward.

Brogdon, Thybulle, Williams, Ant can go for picks and 1-2 vet guards. We’ll suck and be in play for a blue chip forward prospect next season. I’d actually admire the ballsy direction, but I imagine most wouldn’t want to draft two projects.
 
There was a lot of love Ryan Dunn in December/January and a lot here wanted him at #14, did something happen?
 
BankTeller said:
There was a lot of love Ryan Dunn in December/January and a lot here wanted him at #14, did something happen?
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Showed a terrible shot at the combine which might suggest he's going to be an absolute zero on offense for the foreseeable future in the league.
 
BankTeller said:
There was a lot of love Ryan Dunn in December/January and a lot here wanted him at #14, did something happen?
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He is a hell of a defensive player. He will be coming into the league with even less of an offensive package than Thybulle had as a rookie, however.
 
BankTeller said:
There was a lot of love Ryan Dunn in December/January and a lot here wanted him at #14, did something happen?
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Offense just isn't there. The defense, as you know, is elite across all metrics so he'll probably go to a team in the 1st who needs that (Milwaukee?).
 
Vecenie just did a 45 min podcast on Risacher's big game. Doesnt sound like he was that impressed.
 
BankTeller said:
There was a lot of love Ryan Dunn in December/January and a lot here wanted him at #14, did something happen?
Click to expand...
whoever is drafting him will be red shirting him in the g-league, rebuilding the shot, and force feeding him usage to grow his game. he's a bigger matisse thybulle, which has 'some' value in the nba but not a ton.
 
Every year around this time I like to take a look at the draft from the stats perspective. Here are some of my results for this year:

upload_2024-5-21_14-0-16.png

The 'Advanced Stat's' column is made up of a weighted balance of a handful of common advanced stats (PER, BPM, USG...). I then increase or decrease that rating based on their Age, Team SOS, and Team W/L (taking into account MP). I then balance all of the weighting factors to line up with the success of previous years. And there you have it.

Of course no rating system is perfect. It just gives us an idea of where certain players fall compared to other players. There are always a handful of busts at the top of the list, and always a handful of players lower on the list that surprise.

Just for fun, here's last year's list:

upload_2024-5-21_14-12-4.png

And here's a look at 2019:

upload_2024-5-21_14-19-24.png

This stats analysis only takes into account NCAA players. No G-League or international.

Here's a look at my overall 2024 big-board:

upload_2024-5-21_14-33-21.png

Looking forward to June 26 & 27! (Draft Days)
 

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Last edited:
42N8Bounce said:
Every year around this time I like to take a look at the draft from the stats perspective. Here are some of my results for this year:

View attachment 64650

The 'Advanced Stat's' column is made up of a weighted balance of a handful of common advanced stats (PER, BPM, USG...). I then increase or decrease that rating based on their Age, Team SOS, and Team W/L (taking into account MP). I then balance all of the weighting factors to line up with the success of previous years. And there you have it.

Of course no rating system is perfect. It just gives us an idea of where certain players fall compared to other players. There are always a handful of busts at the top of the list, and always a handful of players lower on the list that surprise.

Just for fun, here's last year's list:

View attachment 64651

And here's a look at 2019:

View attachment 64653

This stats analysis only takes into account NCAA players. No G-League or international.

Here's a look at my overall 2024 big-board:

View attachment 64654

Looking forward to June 26 & 27! (Draft Days)
Click to expand...

Your rankings do NOT like Cody Williams.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Every year around this time I like to take a look at the draft from the stats perspective. Here are some of my results for this year:

View attachment 64650

The 'Advanced Stat's' column is made up of a weighted balance of a handful of common advanced stats (PER, BPM, USG...). I then increase or decrease that rating based on their Age, Team SOS, and Team W/L (taking into account MP). I then balance all of the weighting factors to line up with the success of previous years. And there you have it.

Of course no rating system is perfect. It just gives us an idea of where certain players fall compared to other players. There are always a handful of busts at the top of the list, and always a handful of players lower on the list that surprise.

Just for fun, here's last year's list:

View attachment 64651

And here's a look at 2019:

View attachment 64653

This stats analysis only takes into account NCAA players. No G-League or international.

Here's a look at my overall 2024 big-board:

View attachment 64654

Looking forward to June 26 & 27! (Draft Days)
Click to expand...
Terrific work.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Your rankings do NOT like Cody Williams.
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Yep. I guess he was injured a lot this year. He had a pedestrian 15.7 PER along with a dismal BPM (box plus minus) of 3.9 (average in draft is around 7.5). Mediocre Orat & Drat. He's young (19.6 y/o) and had some nice combine numbers (3/4 sprint of 3.06 was 9th best).
 
Natebishop3 said:
What exactly are "advanced stats" though
Click to expand...
I used a balance of PER, BPM, USG, etc. I essentially started with an advanced stat then continued to add others with weighting factors to watch how previous years balanced out.
 
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