2024 NBA Draft Thread

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The "Way too Early' Draft prognostication

  • Holland

    Votes: 8 16.3%

  • Sarr

    Votes: 41 83.7%

  • Edwards

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    49
andalusian said:
I could maybe accept that a lot of the offensive improvement (from #13 in ORTG last year to #3) is not Chet related (I am not sure it is), but Chet makes that team so much more dangerous even on offense simply by having someone that can play both in and out and shoot from the outside to give SGA the space he needs, but they now have a true defensive identity that they did not have before, they were #14 or so in drtg last year, they are now #4 and the main reason for that is Chet. They now have both perimeter and interior defender - and Chet is so fast that he can work in their switching pattern.

His PER is 20 for the year (as a rookie) and that's an offensive stat which is not the main impact he has.



Look at WS/48 - Chet, as a rookie, is #20 in the entire NBA. #20.

Dame Lillard is #45, Sengun is #30, Lebron is #25.

Sorry, but Chet is about as impactful as you get for a rookie.
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I agree with everything you said about Chet. But he is just a very good Robin. (as is Jalen Williams)

My point however was about the Blazers finding a star that would one day make them title contenders. I think there are a few potential "Robins"
in this draft, just like most drafts. Unfortunately, we are looking for Batman and in the last 4 years, there have only been about 3 of them.....that we currently know about.
 
andalusian said:
I could maybe accept that a lot of the offensive improvement (from #13 in ORTG last year to #3) is not Chet related (I am not sure it is), but Chet makes that team so much more dangerous even on offense simply by having someone that can play both in and out and shoot from the outside to give SGA the space he needs, but they now have a true defensive identity that they did not have before, they were #14 or so in drtg last year, they are now #4 and the main reason for that is Chet. They now have both perimeter and interior defender - and Chet is so fast that he can work in their switching pattern.

His PER is 20 for the year (as a rookie) and that's an offensive stat which is not the main impact he has.



Look at WS/48 - Chet, as a rookie, is #20 in the entire NBA. #20.

Dame Lillard is #45, Sengun is #30, Lebron is #25.

Sorry, but Chet is about as impactful as you get for a rookie.
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I had no idea Sabonis had such a good rookie season.
 
Fez Hammersticks said:
Clingan has the IQ/awareness to be a Gobert-level rim protector.

7’3” w/o shoes
7’7” wingspan

I now have him as my #1 target - above Sarr and Topic.

Scoot/Sharpe/Clingan is a filthy core to build around.
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With a few days before the lotto I’m pretty much here with my top-3

1) Clingan
2) Sarr
3) Topic

It’s a tossup between Sarr and Topic though.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
Obviously, it takes more than one player to win it all, but my point is this draft can get us a good player, just not a great one. And when you compare the last 4 drafts there are arguably only 3 legitimate stars that meet that criteria.
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I'm not sure you can gauge the last 2 drafts completely. SGA didn't really become elite till his 5th season. So, I'd expand the timeline to include 5 drafts prior to the last 2 which would account for any late bloomers. Since 2017:

2017:

Jayson Tatum
De'Aaron Fox
Lauri Markkanen
Donovan Mitchell
Bam Adebayo

2018:

Luka Dončić
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Trae Young
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

2019:

Zion Williamson
Ja Morant
Darius Garland

2020:

Anthony Edwards
LaMelo Ball
Tyrese Haliburton
Tyrese Maxey
Desmond Bane

2021:

Jalen Green
Evan Mobley
Scottie Barnes
Josh Giddey
Franz Wagner
Alperen Sengun

just about all of those guys are better, currently, than anybody the Blazers have. there's no generational talent, but there rarely is. But most of those players can alter the trajectory of a team, and Portland doesn't have that level of player unless Sharpe/Scoot radically improve

you may be right that the 2024 draft might be better than many are projecting
 
AmirIcon said:
I hear the Spurs want Topic and are willing to take him at #1. Who are some other possibilities who would skip over drafting Sarr because of fit/need? Perhaps the Pistons.

It's feasible Portland could use both picks to move up to get Sarr. Or their pick plus both 2nds. Blazers insiders suggest they don't want to use both lottery picks anyways.
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If Cronin is as clueless as some fans say, it's feasible Portland uses both picks on Sarr after Sarr already is off the board.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
If we draft a SF (instead of Sarr) Tyler Smith might be worth taking despite how raw he is defensively.
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That’s interesting. I saw him as more of a 4 than a 3 but he does seem to have some switchiness.
 
AmirIcon said:
No thanks on Shep, but yes on Salaun please. I like him and Knecht/George with the latter pick.
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If Knecht were to fall to #14, I think you take him and run. He is an NBA ready shooter that can really stretch the floor, is athletic and is a tough competitor. I think he is gone well before then, but if he fell, would LOVE to have him at #14.
 
TBpup said:
If Knecht were to fall to #14, I think you take him and run. He is an NBA ready shooter that can really stretch the floor, is athletic and is a tough competitor. I think he is gone well before then, but if he fell, would LOVE to have him at #14.
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Agreed on all counts.
 
TBpup said:
If Knecht were to fall to #14, I think you take him and run. He is an NBA ready shooter that can really stretch the floor, is athletic and is a tough competitor. I think he is gone well before then, but if he fell, would LOVE to have him at #14.
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Our seconds should be able to get us to move a few spots. Also, I'd keep an eye on Chicago to take Brogdon.
 
The Wolves are showing why they are the best D team in the league. They pick up guys nearly full court and their Star is one of their better defenders. They built the team by addressing what positions they had a need for. Got their old methodical pg and established defensive 5. Even picking up Anderson & Walker was a decent move. We have an established young center and a very young pg and hopefully a dog shooting guard. If Shae can really pop and play with an edge and stay healthy and fill a positional need with a dog that can score and play some d in the draft? who knows? What we do know it will take a few years to sharpen.
 
CJ_is_Gone said:
Why do you like Clingan and Topic so much?

When I have watched film, I can't see any way for Clingan to be a high impact player. To me he is a Zubac level player in the NBA. Decently good, but entirely forgettable.

Topic has some potential that I can see, but again - I don't see any high impact potential there at all.
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Fully agree.
 
TBpup said:
If Knecht were to fall to #14, I think you take him and run. He is an NBA ready shooter that can really stretch the floor, is athletic and is a tough competitor. I think he is gone well before then, but if he fell, would LOVE to have him at #14.
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An underrated aspect is having him under contract during his prime. Older, more ready prospects provide value. But not every older player, is necessarily ready. I like Knecht and we definitely need shooting. I also like Salaun with the GS pick. I'll be happy with either and hope they use the 2nds to move up if necessary.
 
AmirIcon said:
Cronin has had ongoing talks with Chicago about our future pick and I've heard Brogdon has drawn interest from Chicago in the past. I thought I heard they were under the cap?
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My dream scenario an Ant trade.
IMO - this is too good to be true, but I've seen fans from other teams propose portions of this. I'm just combining it:

Orlando:
WCJ + Jett Howard + '25 Denver <=> Simons

Memphis:
Luke Kennard + '25 LP Memphis first <=> WCJ


Portland:
Simons <=> Howard + Kennard + '25 Denver + '25 Memphis

I don't love Howard as a prospect, but he has potential. It would be amazing to flip Howard + 2 seconds to Chicago for Portland's future first back.


Im not so sure there is a huge drop-off from Ant to Kennard. Most of the advanced stats favor Luke as being more of a positive player (when D is factored in), As amazing as Simons can be offensively, he's absolutely clueless defensively & give most of his points back
 
What's the worst draft take you ever made? The one that in hindsight makes you look like a complete fool.
 
AmirIcon said:
Cronin has had ongoing talks with Chicago about our future pick and I've heard Brogdon has drawn interest from Chicago in the past. I thought I heard they were under the cap?
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I'd try to get a better FRP, as honestly ours might ultimately end up as just 2nd rounders.

However if we cant get a better return for Brogdon that's a deadline deal I'd prefer over keeping him on the roster.
 
inconceivable said:
What's the worst draft take you ever made? The one that in hindsight makes you look like a complete fool.
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Me in 2017: "Take Justin Jackson to be our SFotF. Much more reliable than OG Anunoby and his wonky knees."
 
BIG Q said:
Oden. Was all in on him.
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In terms of expectations at the draft to results yeah don't think he'll ever be topped. I was thinking he'd be a borderline NBA allstar at worse and MVP candidate at best.

Worse draft takes for Blazers is probably Elliot Williams and Qyntel Woods - thought they'd be starters for sure.

Blazers really haven't had a ton of high lottery picks. Webster I always thought had risk. They hit pretty good on Roy/Aldridge/Dame/CJ. Telfair was flipped for the Roy picks which was good value. Jerryd Bayless was a disappointment but like Meyers not in the top10. Rudy I didn't know anything about at the draft but the next summer before his rookie year I was super high on him. He was great as a rookie though, seems like he was never the same after the Ariza foul.

Other NBA draft picks I really liked at the time that were massive disappointments are Wiseman, Fultz, Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Thomas Robinson, Michael Beasley, Yi Jianlian, Adam Morrision
 
Last edited:
MrDraftGuy said:
Here are Kevin Pelton's rankings, which uses the WARP stat - which is supposed to factor in the player's impact. It's not foolproof but it does accurately highlight certain players against the consensus.

2022: https://archive.md/z2Rjq

- Chet is ranked number one and Jabari is number two, Kessler and Eason make it into a Top 10 (which they do deserve imo), no Paolo in top 10 (but Sharpe is). Jalen Williams absolutely disregarded.

2023: https://archive.md/OMS2S

- Vic, Miller, and Whitmore take Top 3. No Thompsons since they played in OTE. Derrick Lively II finds himself being #7. Keyonte George (#12) is ranked above Scoot (#13), who "advanced stats" somewhat didn't favor even back then.

2024: https://archive.md/N71MJ

- Current rankings are in the order of Clingan, Sheppard, Sarr, Edey, Risacher.

Previous rankings: https://archive.md/J7grM

It's not bad as a reference for cross-checking but I notice it's friendlier to quality big men and guards that score than all-around forwards and shooting guards. Hence, Edwards slipped and so did Banchero.
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This was interesting: "Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012."
 
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