Event 2025 NBA DRAFT LOTTERY, COMBINE, AND DRAFT

[Graduate32]

If the Blazers end up in the top 4 (but not at #1, Flagg is by the far the best investment in terms of balancing reward vs. risk), Ace Bailey has to be under strong consideration. His standard deviation in outcomes is probably double or triple that of Flagg, but there is no bigger upside in this draft. His shooting and self-creation potential (he is definitely not a playmaker for others at this juncture) at his size is truly incredible. And while he's not a crazy athlete, I don't think he needs to be. If you trust your development system and you are okay with him from a personality/motivation standpoint, he's probably a swing you have to make.

 

[Pinwheel1]

If the Blazers end up in the top 4 (but not at #1, Flagg is by the far the best investment in terms of balancing reward vs. risk), Ace Bailey has to be under strong consideration. His standard deviation in outcomes is probably double or triple that of Flagg, but there is no bigger upside in this draft. His shooting and self-creation potential (he is definitely not a playmaker for others at this juncture) at his size is truly incredible. And while he's not a crazy athlete, I don't think he needs to be. If you trust your development system and you are okay with him from a personality/motivation standpoint, he's probably a swing you have to make.

I agree with what you say about Ace. But isn't he also a crazy athlete to go along with his skill set? He sure looks explosive.

 

[Graduate32]

I agree with what you say about Ace. But isn't he also a crazy athlete to go along with his skill set? He sure looks explosive.

I think he might be explosive in the way Durant is explosive. I won't be surprised if the testing numbers are only so-so, but his length and solid first step will allow him to play more explosively. I don't know if that makes sense, and who knows? Maybe his numbers will wow everyone.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

My early sleeper of this draft:

Miles Byrd

Cut from the Toumani Camara/ Ryan Dunn mold.

He's short for a big, and can't shoot the 3, but M-B seems intriguing especially with the Blazers culture. What do you think of Collin Murray-Boyles?

 

[PCmor7]

If the Blazers end up in the top 4 (but not at #1, Flagg is by the far the best investment in terms of balancing reward vs. risk), Ace Bailey has to be under strong consideration. His standard deviation in outcomes is probably double or triple that of Flagg, but there is no bigger upside in this draft. His shooting and self-creation potential (he is definitely not a playmaker for others at this juncture) at his size is truly incredible. And while he's not a crazy athlete, I don't think he needs to be. If you trust your development system and you are okay with him from a personality/motivation standpoint, he's probably a swing you have to make.

This.

No one that I've seen in this draft is capable of doing what he can offensively. He makes essentially undefendable shots look routine, and, when he's on, he's practically impossible to stop. If he's coachable and you have good developers in your organization, take him and let it bake. Low floor but his ceiling is practically out of the building. I keep thinking Darius Miles.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

This.

No one that I've seen in this draft is capable of doing what he can offensively. He makes essentially undefendable shots look routine, and, when he's on, he's practically impossible to stop. If he's coachable and you have good developers in your organization, take him and let it bake. Low floor but his ceiling is practically out of the building. I keep thinking Darius Miles.

Miles is probably a good comp for Bailey.
Low probability of major success, but can be playable if he keeps his head on straight.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

He's short for a big, and can't shoot the 3, but M-B seems intriguing especially with the Blazers culture. What do you think of Collin Murray-Boyles?

Kind of a weird prospect - he’s really a 6’7” Center that will have to adjust. I see a learning curve that’ll mirror Jarace Walker: slow and will take time.

If you go this route I’d rather take a shot at Derik
Queen

 

[cheesehoff]

He's short for a big, and can't shoot the 3, but M-B seems intriguing especially with the Blazers culture. What do you think of Collin Murray-Boyles?

Miles Byrd is a 6'7" guard. His shot is not flawed, but it's not good either. I saw a bunch of video on him and then watched UNC make him disappear in the tourney.
I did like watching his highlights. I would rather have Nique Clifford of the two.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Pressure:
The Kings have a 97.6% chance of losing their pick to Atlanta.

 

[dviss1]

... why??

More athletic IMO. Higher upside IMO. Plays the SF position and wouldn't make us have to give up on Scoot (which is what Flagg does IMO).
And I think Ace is every bit as good as Flagg.

 

[blazerkor]

Ace Bailey had terrible shot selection this season, his shot is beautiful though and his handle at his height and length is dope. His athleticism is elite... it's not Shaedon level but it's pretty damn crazy.

I don't see Darius in his game, I see what a lot of people are seeing, a KD like prospect. I guess we'll see but I would feel incredibly lucky if we have him on our roster this summer and going into next season. That's extremely unlikely so we'll all probably have to watch and see how he pans out from afar.

 

[Phatguysrule]

More athletic IMO. Higher upside IMO. Plays the SF position and wouldn't make us have to give up on Scoot (which is what Flagg does IMO).
And I think Ace is every bit as good as Flagg.

Why would getting Flagg mean we have to give up on Scoot?

 

[Everything Beagle]

Why would getting Flagg mean we have to give up on Scoot?

I think the implication is that it would take trading our best young talent to get up to the 1st pick to get Flagg

 

[kjironman1]

It's anecdotal so it doesn't count for anything but here you go: 10, 2, 9, 9, 9. That seems pretty lucky on my part so I'm going to hit that button 5 more times: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9.

So there you have it but that 2 doesn't mean a damn thing because it's anecdotal and in small sets of anecdotal data a statistical anomaly unfairly skews perspective. I get it that spinning that wheel is addictive, it's designed that way because a variable ratio schedule is the most addictive type of scheduled reinforcement. Why does virtually every fan of every team in the lotto, even the 14th slot, tune in... because variable ratio is a complete mind fuck. People go broke on slot machines every day.

The fact is it's going to be 9 more than 50% of the time... just a little more but still every time you spin it you have better than a coin flip chance of it being 9. It's not the position I wanted, it's not the position we needed but let's not overly dramatize it, it's a position in which you are very likely to pick in the position you deserve.

Wow. That sure is a lot of thinking about 20% odds. Sorry 20.2%.

 

[HoopsFanAZ]

Why would getting Flagg mean we have to give up on Scoot?

Clingan, Flagg, Deni, Toumani

Sharpe and Scoot — 3 point shooting a work in progress (at some volume)
Ant — gets his own shot as a volume 3 pt shooter

One argument or question asked is, out of the 3 guards, who best fits with the other 4? Some say Ant.

IMHO, with Shaedon as a 2, it’s not about him. And without having a stronger defender at 2 (or a taller PG) who can take the best opposing guard, then Ant is hunted.

In other words, it’s not even Scoot vs. Ant as much as simply Scoot’s fit moving forward. He’s getting there. That said, I still like Demin (and that shot should come around). Kid is young.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Clingan, Flagg, Deni, Toumani

Sharpe and Scoot — 3 point shooting a work in progress (at some volume)
Ant — gets his own shot as a volume 3 pt shooter

One argument or question asked is, out of the 3 guards, who best fits with the other 4? Some say Ant.

IMHO, with Shaedon as a 2, it’s not about him. And without having a stronger defender at 2 (or a taller PG) who can take the best opposing guard, then Ant is hunted.

In other words, it’s not even Scoot vs. Ant as much as simply Scoot’s fit moving forward. He’s getting there. That said, I still like Demin (and that shot should come around). Kid is young.

I'd keep Scoot and move off of Ant. Scoot is going to get all of those guys better looks than Ant will. And he'll play far better defense.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

If our pick is in the 7-10 range:



Jalen Duren with a mid-range game (but not the
elite rebounder that Duren is)

 

[THE HCP]

 

[Pinwheel1]

More athletic IMO. Higher upside IMO. Plays the SF position and wouldn't make us have to give up on Scoot (which is what Flagg does IMO).
And I think Ace is every bit as good as Flagg.

I have been contemplating this for a while. (just for fun because it is a long shot either way) But not just because of Flagg, but because of Flagg in addition to Deni. Those are two pretty good ball-handling/passing forwards. Even though you make a valid point about Ace, I can't say I would mind what we could do with what would become our top 6 young players with Cooper.

There could be times when they could play all 3 forwards because of it. (Camara, Deni, and Flagg)
Either by subbing in for Clingan or Scoot. Or even subbing in for Sharpe to give him a rest. So I think it works well with Flagg.

But the scenario could also be done with Ace. All because of the flexibility that Deni provides. As of right now, Deni is a better "PG" than Flagg. That will probably change over ta few years, but I did think there were times in the tournament that Flagg struggled against pressure.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I think the implication is that it would take trading our best young talent to get up to the 1st pick to get Flagg

I think it would take more than that.

 

[Everything Beagle]

I think it would take more than that.

Obviously

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Here's a dumb question (or two):

If we don't win the lottery, whom do you want it to be? And whom do you LEAST want it to be?
I'd be okay with Sacramento winning it, just because they've had such a shitty time of it. And, much as I quite like the Spurs, it just wouldn't be right if they won it AGAIN.

 

[blazerkor]

You might know this but who will we send to do the best drawing? Are any of our players excellent artists?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Here's a dumb question (or two):

If we don't win the lottery, whom do you want it to be? And whom do you LEAST want it to be?
I'd be okay with Sacramento winning it, just because they've had such a shitty time of it. And, much as I quite like the Spurs, it just wouldn't be right if they won it AGAIN.

A team in the East, like Washington or Charlotte to win it.
Absolutely not SA or Utah

 

[THE HCP]

Here's a dumb question (or two):

If we don't win the lottery, whom do you want it to be? And whom do you LEAST want it to be?
I'd be okay with Sacramento winning it, just because they've had such a shitty time of it. And, much as I quite like the Spurs, it just wouldn't be right if they won it AGAIN.

Spurs

 

[dviss1]

I have been contemplating this for a while. (just for fun because it is a long shot either way) But not just because of Flagg, but because of Flagg in addition to Deni. Those are two pretty good ball-handling/passing forwards. Even though you make a valid point about Ace, I can't say I would mind what we could do with what would become our top 6 young players with Cooper.

There could be times when they could play all 3 forwards because of it. (Camara, Deni, and Flagg)
Either by subbing in for Clingan or Scoot. Or even subbing in for Sharpe to give him a rest. So I think it works well with Flagg.

But the scenario could also be done with Ace. All because of the flexibility that Deni provides. As of right now, Deni is a better "PG" than Flagg. That will probably change over ta few years, but I did think there were times in the tournament that Flagg struggled against pressure.

I don't have the numbers but the eye test makes be believe Flagg's playstyle is more ball dominant than Bailey.

 

[dviss1]

Why would getting Flagg mean we have to give up on Scoot?

Scoot doesn't play well off ball enough. His playstyle requires him to be more ball dominant to get the best out of him. @BonesJones discussed this on his show.

 

[dviss1]

3 tries. Fans deserve this. Blazer Brass doesn't.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Scoot doesn't play well off ball enough. His playstyle requires him to be more ball dominant to get the best out of him. @BonesJones discussed this on his show.

I'm good with that.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I don't have the numbers but the eye test makes be believe Flagg's playstyle is more ball dominant than Bailey.

I get your point, having Scoot in there with Deni and Flagg, and Sharpe would mean a lot of standing around for Scoot. And again, I debated it back and forth. Ace would seem to be the better fit with Scoot.

However, when we are just talking about 6 young core players, the minutes will most definitely be there regardless, especially when you consider injuries. If Deni were to get hurt, Scoot would be much needed.