Event 2025 NBA DRAFT LOTTERY, COMBINE, AND DRAFT

[kjironman1]

Was thinking about posting this in the "Big Swing" thread for the funnies, but it goes here:

Are any of these even first round picks? Late first?

 

[Mediocre Man]

That's not bad.

The NHL is just all around better

 

[JDC]

Are any of these even first round picks? Late first?

No.

A few late 2nd guys at best.

 

[LayneStaley]

I wonder if we already have a deal in place for say 10/Grant and it’s all contingent on the lottery results.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Are any of these even first round picks? Late first?

no. late 2nds. 2way/Remix material. Regardless, the process has begun.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

combine starts May 11, lotto on May 12. Me, Ronnie Coleman, Colbert, and Julius Maddox have birthdays on the 13th.

 

[e_blazer]

Excuse me if this has already been posted, but Sam Vecenie of The Athletic has an article out this week on the NBA Draft. I was surprised to see him saying that the draft is considered by GM’s to be pretty weak overall. Maybe Blazers’ management had a better reason for not tanking than we knew?

“Mainly because of the proliferation of the name, image and likeness (NIL) marketplace in college basketball, there are only 106 early entrants to the NBA Draft, a drastically lower number than the 195 who entered last year and the 242 who entered the year before. This peaked in 2021, when 353 early entrants declared for the draft.

What does that mean for the draft? First and foremost, this number is expected to be whittled down substantially by May 28, the deadline for players with remaining collegiate eligibility to withdraw from the draft. Many of the players on the early entry list are seen as strong bets to return to school because they are slated to make seven figures in NIL dollars. If the choice is that you have guaranteed money on the table from a college or you’re on the borderline of getting a guaranteed deal from the NBA versus a two-way contract (which would only pay approximately $600,000 next season), most players and their representatives are going to take the guaranteed money. But an intriguing game of chicken has also now developed in which agents and players are trying to figure out if so many guys are going to pull out of the draft that it is worthwhile to enter this year, because this would be their best chance to be selected.

That’s where the process stands at this point, and unsurprisingly, it has decimated the depth of this class in a big way. NBA teams with selections in the 40s are quite worried as to whether those picks will have much value. Even teams in the late 20s and 30s have serious questions as to whether those picks will deliver commensurate value with what a normal selection in that range will bring.

This draft was not seen as all that loaded to begin with. Teams have real questions about whether this draft will bring average value starting from about No. 3 on. There are areas of the draft where the talent levels off for most scouts and executives (some believe the middle of the lottery is a good sweet spot, others see the late teens as a solid area to derive value). The top two are the only slots of this draft where teams have a particular amount of excitement.

Indeed, that’s why the draft lottery will be so important. Teams like the Utah Jazz could go from building their organization over the next decade around Cooper Flagg, a player seen as a genuine franchise-changer, to someone like Tre Johnson at No. 5, a good player with significant upside but with many more questions, if they fall out of the top two. There might not be a day that shapes the future of the NBA for the rest of 2025 more than May 12, when the lottery gods smile upon one team that can select Flagg.”

 

[blazerkor]

Excuse me if this has already been posted, but Sam Vecenie of The Athletic has an article out this week on the NBA Draft. I was surprised to see him saying that the draft is considered by GM’s to be pretty weak overall. Maybe Blazers’ management had a better reason for not tanking than we knew?

“Mainly because of the proliferation of the name, image and likeness (NIL) marketplace in college basketball, there are only 106 early entrants to the NBA Draft, a drastically lower number than the 195 who entered last year and the 242 who entered the year before. This peaked in 2021, when 353 early entrants declared for the draft.

What does that mean for the draft? First and foremost, this number is expected to be whittled down substantially by May 28, the deadline for players with remaining collegiate eligibility to withdraw from the draft. Many of the players on the early entry list are seen as strong bets to return to school because they are slated to make seven figures in NIL dollars. If the choice is that you have guaranteed money on the table from a college or you’re on the borderline of getting a guaranteed deal from the NBA versus a two-way contract (which would only pay approximately $600,000 next season), most players and their representatives are going to take the guaranteed money. But an intriguing game of chicken has also now developed in which agents and players are trying to figure out if so many guys are going to pull out of the draft that it is worthwhile to enter this year, because this would be their best chance to be selected.

That’s where the process stands at this point, and unsurprisingly, it has decimated the depth of this class in a big way. NBA teams with selections in the 40s are quite worried as to whether those picks will have much value. Even teams in the late 20s and 30s have serious questions as to whether those picks will deliver commensurate value with what a normal selection in that range will bring.

This draft was not seen as all that loaded to begin with. Teams have real questions about whether this draft will bring average value starting from about No. 3 on. There are areas of the draft where the talent levels off for most scouts and executives (some believe the middle of the lottery is a good sweet spot, others see the late teens as a solid area to derive value). The top two are the only slots of this draft where teams have a particular amount of excitement.

Indeed, that’s why the draft lottery will be so important. Teams like the Utah Jazz could go from building their organization over the next decade around Cooper Flagg, a player seen as a genuine franchise-changer, to someone like Tre Johnson at No. 5, a good player with significant upside but with many more questions, if they fall out of the top two. There might not be a day that shapes the future of the NBA for the rest of 2025 more than May 12, when the lottery gods smile upon one team that can select Flagg.”

Yeah this isn't the 2003 draft... or at least it doesn't look like it but it's a shit ton better than last year's draft. I don't see any guys who are expecting to go in the top 20 of this draft going back to school for another year. The NIL money just isn't that good and it just means another year between now and when they can get that first contract extension... if they believe in themselves.

I would think the NIL money would have a bigger impact on the second round talent level and maybe late first round.

 

[e_blazer]

Yeah this isn't the 2003 draft... or at least it doesn't look like it but it's a shit ton better than last year's draft. I don't see any guys who are expecting to go in the top 20 of this draft going back to school for another year. The NIL money just isn't that good and it just means another year between now and when they can get that first contract extension... if they believe in themselves.

I would think the NIL money would have a bigger impact on the second round talent level and maybe late first round.

Agreed. That’s the way I read it. The NIL dollars are an attraction to guys at the back end of the draft who might not even get a guaranteed contract in the NBA. Not likely to keep a top-20 pick out of the draft.

 

[THE HCP]

Excuse me if this has already been posted, but Sam Vecenie of The Athletic has an article out this week on the NBA Draft. I was surprised to see him saying that the draft is considered by GM’s to be pretty weak overall. Maybe Blazers’ management had a better reason for not tanking than we knew?

“Mainly because of the proliferation of the name, image and likeness (NIL) marketplace in college basketball, there are only 106 early entrants to the NBA Draft, a drastically lower number than the 195 who entered last year and the 242 who entered the year before. This peaked in 2021, when 353 early entrants declared for the draft.

What does that mean for the draft? First and foremost, this number is expected to be whittled down substantially by May 28, the deadline for players with remaining collegiate eligibility to withdraw from the draft. Many of the players on the early entry list are seen as strong bets to return to school because they are slated to make seven figures in NIL dollars. If the choice is that you have guaranteed money on the table from a college or you’re on the borderline of getting a guaranteed deal from the NBA versus a two-way contract (which would only pay approximately $600,000 next season), most players and their representatives are going to take the guaranteed money. But an intriguing game of chicken has also now developed in which agents and players are trying to figure out if so many guys are going to pull out of the draft that it is worthwhile to enter this year, because this would be their best chance to be selected.

That’s where the process stands at this point, and unsurprisingly, it has decimated the depth of this class in a big way. NBA teams with selections in the 40s are quite worried as to whether those picks will have much value. Even teams in the late 20s and 30s have serious questions as to whether those picks will deliver commensurate value with what a normal selection in that range will bring.

This draft was not seen as all that loaded to begin with. Teams have real questions about whether this draft will bring average value starting from about No. 3 on. There are areas of the draft where the talent levels off for most scouts and executives (some believe the middle of the lottery is a good sweet spot, others see the late teens as a solid area to derive value). The top two are the only slots of this draft where teams have a particular amount of excitement.

Indeed, that’s why the draft lottery will be so important. Teams like the Utah Jazz could go from building their organization over the next decade around Cooper Flagg, a player seen as a genuine franchise-changer, to someone like Tre Johnson at No. 5, a good player with significant upside but with many more questions, if they fall out of the top two. There might not be a day that shapes the future of the NBA for the rest of 2025 more than May 12, when the lottery gods smile upon one team that can select Flagg.”

Shit, if the #5 pick isn’t a game changer than what the hell are we gonna get at #10!!?? Not even worthy of taking my bags to my room FAMS!

 

[inconceivable]

I wonder if we already have a deal in place for say 10/Grant and it’s all contingent on the lottery results.

for what?

 

[Pinwheel1]

What? The experts changed their minds on this draft? Before the season, weren't we jealous of teams who were smart enough to get multiple FRPs for this draft? Didn't the experts say it was the deepest in years?

Persoanlly I hope this draft does suck from 12 or so on. But I think there will be talent when we pick. Just not one that can start the first year. So like most drafts.

 

[Graduate32]

I've honestly felt that this draft has been overrated since the jump. It has better top-end talent (or at least potential talent) than some years, but by the time you get to pick 5, how many of the remaining guys have even an inkling of #1 option potential? Maybe Jeremiah Fears? Anyone else you look at and feel they could be a #1 or even #2 option on a contending team if they hit their ceiling?

There is, of course, still some solid talent after that point, but you're aiming to get high-level role players from that point on. Inevitably, someone lower pops unexpectedly, but I'm struggling identify those with even the remote chance (Clayton? Clifford? Bryant becomes something different in like a Jimmy Butler transcendency?).

It definitely makes me understand the "#10 as a trade asset" take. It just doesn't feel like the risk of opportunity cost feels that severe this year. If the trade you make busts, you might lose out on having taken solid role player. Not ideal, but certainly not catastrophic. In fact, I'd argue that last year's famously awful draft had more high-upside potential in that mid-first-round range than this year's. I felt like last year and you could at least squint at guys like Carrington, McCain, Ware, Knecht, Dillingham, Williams, Topic and see some really high-end outcomes if they hit their ceilings. I'm just struggling to find those guys this year.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I In fact, I'd argue that last year's famously awful draft had more high-upside potential in that mid-first-round range than this years. I felt like last year and you could at least squint at guys like Carrington, McCain, Ware, Knecht, Dillingham, Williams, Topic and see some really high-end outcomes if they hit their ceilings. I'm just struggling to find those guys this year.

I agree, but.........I think there will be players who are now slotted for late first and early 2nd who will suddenly jump into the 15-20 range. Once people start breaking down all the film. Probably a couple of international players.

Again, they will not be ready from the get-go, but that will be true of almost every single player in the draft outside of maybe Flagg, and he will probably struggle his first year, too. All of the players I saw struggled at times against college talent, so it only makes sense that they will struggle their first year in the Association.

 

[Foxx]

I've honestly felt that this draft has been overrated since the jump. It has better top-end talent (or at least potential talent) than some years, but by the time you get to pick 5, how many of the remaining guys have even an inkling of #1 option potential? Maybe Jeremiah Fears? Anyone else you look at and feel they could be a #1 or even #2 option on a contending team if they hit their ceiling?

There is, of course, still some solid talent after that point, but you're aiming to get high-level role players from that point on. Inevitably, someone lower pops unexpectedly, but I'm struggling identify those with even the remote chance (Clayton? Clifford? Bryant becomes something different in like a Jimmy Butler transcendency?).

It definitely makes me understand the "#10 as a trade asset" take. It just doesn't feel like the risk of opportunity cost feels that severe this year. If the trade you make busts, you might lose out on having taken solid role player. Not ideal, but certainly not catastrophic. In fact, I'd argue that last year's famously awful draft had more high-upside potential in that mid-first-round range than this year's. I felt like last year and you could at least squint at guys like Carrington, McCain, Ware, Knecht, Dillingham, Williams, Topic and see some really high-end outcomes if they hit their ceilings. I'm just struggling to find those guys this year.

This is why I’m pro shooting for Sabonis with this pick. We need to add to our playoff prospects - NOT more unproven young raw talent. That’s going backwards

 

[JDC]

This is why I’m pro shooting for Sabonis with this pick. We need to add to our playoff prospects - NOT more unproven young raw talent. That’s going backwards

Sabonis is too old and has proven to be a questionable impact guy vs the highest level teams.

But he's also good enough that it may just put us in bubble playoff team purgatory.

I'd shoot higher or just continue to build through the draft.

 

[JDC]

Lottery talk, Zach's first blush feel on some guys and J Kyle Mann with some Blazers optimism.

Starts at 53:35, Blazers stuff at 1:04:09.

 

[Phatguysrule]

What? The experts changed their minds on this draft? Before the season, weren't we jealous of teams who were smart enough to get multiple FRPs for this draft? Didn't the experts say it was the deepest in years?

Persoanlly I hope this draft does suck from 12 or so on. But I think there will be talent when we pick. Just not one that can start the first year. So like most drafts.

I'm jealous of teams who have multiple FRPs in consecutive drafts (regardless of how strong/weak the draft).

That's how you build a championship contender.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I'm jealous of teams who have multiple FRPs in consecutive drafts (regardless of how strong/weak the draft).

That's how you build a championship contender.

You build a championship contender by finding generational players in the draft and then surrounding them with the right pieces. Tatum might not be generational, but he’s a multi time allstar and one of the best players in the league. Same with the Kawhi Raptors, but Jokic, Steph, Lebron, Giannis,

Portland may not have won a title with Dame, but had our fucktard of a GM surrounded him with the right pieces, we would have competed for one most seasons.

 

[Phatguysrule]

You build a championship contender by finding generational players in the draft and then surrounding them with the right pieces. Tatum might not be generational, but he’s a multi time allstar and one of the best players in the league. Same with the Kawhi Raptors, but Jokic, Steph, Lebron, Giannis,

Portland may not have won a title with Dame, but had our fucktard of a GM surrounded him with the right pieces, we would have competed for one most seasons.

Yep. And the draft is the best way to do that in Portland. More bites of the pie increases the odds of nabbing that player as well as the talent to fill out the roster.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Yep. And the draft is the best way to do that in Portland. More bites of the pie increases the odds of nabbing that player as well as the talent to fill out the roster.

I’m not disagreeing

 

[inconceivable]

is there a blazer draft lottery party?

 

[e_blazer]

Are the Blazers sending BRoy to rep the team for the lottery?

 

[THE HCP]

Toumani is our rep

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I’ve spent a lot of time and effort on this draft looking at prospects that are either under the radar or projected low 1RP or 2RP.

This pick is as good as gone if we don’t move up into the top-3.

I’m swinging for the fences and taking a shot at Rocco Zikarsky.

Building one of the biggest center rotations in nba history

 

[Irish Trader]

I’ve spent a lot of time and effort on this draft looking at prospects that are either under the radar or projected low 1RP or 2RP.

This pick is as good as gone if we don’t move up into the top-3.

I’m swinging for the fences and taking a shot at Rocco Zikarsky.

Building one of the biggest center rotations in nba history

Works for me. The NBA is returning to big people in the middle for defense. I do not see any super player after the 5 th pick.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

I’ve spent a lot of time and effort on this draft looking at prospects that are either under the radar or projected low 1RP or 2RP.

This pick is as good as gone if we don’t move up into the top-3.

I’m swinging for the fences and taking a shot at Rocco Zikarsky.

Building one of the biggest center rotations in nba history

Why do you like him?
When I watch some game film, he seemed a bit clumsy. I also didn't see anything that he did that stood out - besides being the biggest guy on the court.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Why do you like him?
When I watch some game film, he seemed a bit clumsy. I also didn't see anything that he did that stood out - besides being the biggest guy on the court.

Upside and defensive feel - he has a high bball IQ.

He’s nimble for a 7’3” player (or was) but we’ll have to see how he returns from injury. This is the only thing that’s keeping him from being a 1RP.

Injury isn’t serious but he’s a legit giant so it’s obviously a gamble but one worth taking imo.

It’s the same approach OKC took last year with Nikola Topic.

 

[Foxx]

Sabonis is too old and has proven to be a questionable impact guy vs the highest level teams.

But he's also good enough that it may just put us in bubble playoff team purgatory.

I'd shoot higher or just continue to build through the draft.

What is Domas possibly too old for? He can offer us 7 straight years of prime.

Is 2040 “the year” or wat

 

[Chris Craig]

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WHEN: MONDAY MAY 12, 2025 - MONDAY - 4:00 PM PST

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WHEN: MAY 11-18 2025 (SUNDAY - SUNDAY)

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