Event 2025 NBA DRAFT LOTTERY, COMBINE, AND DRAFT (1 Viewer)

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For those saying their money is on us ending up at 11, why the fuck is that? We have a whopping 63% chance of staying at 10, we have another 16.9% chance at moving up and for a total of 79.9% chance that we don't move back but you guys want to put money on us getting fucked over by moving back to 11 at 18.5%.

II'm keeping my fingers crossed that we get lucky and hit on that 16.9% that we move up but I'm expecting the most probable outdome of us staying at 10.
 
Natebishop3 said:
At which point we should all just shift our entire focus to the Ducks.
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inconceivable said:
what a wonderful world would it be if SA gets Cooper Flagg
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as far as I can tell, Blazers have had four #1 picks; Spurs have had 3

Portland: Larue Martin-->Bill Walton-->Mychal Thompson-->Greg Oden

San Antonio: David Robinson-->Tim Duncan-->Victor Wembanyama

Spurs have obviously gained a lot more from 1 less pick

Blazers took Larue Martin when Bob McAdoo, Julius Erving, and Paul Westphal were available

and they took Thompson when Larry Bird, Reggie Theus, and Mike Mitchell were available
 
wizenheimer said:
as far as I can tell, Blazers have had four #1 picks; Spurs have had 3

Portland: Larue Martin-->Bill Walton-->Mychal Thompson-->Greg Oden

San Antonio: David Robinson-->Tim Duncan-->Victor Wembanyama

Spurs have obviously gained a lot more from 1 less pick

Blazers took Larue Martin when Bob McAdoo, Julius Erving, and Paul Westphal were available

and they took Thompson when Larry Bird, Reggie Theus, and Mike Mitchell were available
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I don’t think anyone of note was available after Oden. I did all the honking I needed to do.
 
Spurs also have Atlanta pick unprotected.... so in theory they could end up with BOTH #1 and #2!

Then Houston jumps to #3, Sac jumps to #4... thats probably about the worst case scenario for Portland. Utah would be #5 and and NOP #8 so the west continues to get loaded. The Blazers drop to #12
 
So since Houston has the Phoenix pick unprotected it'll be Houston up on the screen for that prick - right? Normally I believe the team that will get the pick when its #1 is the team we see at the lottery. So same with #14... its Atlanta originally but we'll see SAS at that spot since its unprotected - and thus the Spurs have two representatives? But Sacramento keeps their pick if its top4 so we'll see Sacramento at #13 even though likely it stays there and is sent to Atlanta.
 
So what we want to see when Chicago is on the screen at #12 is next Dallas.... that means Dallas didn't jump over us. In other words we first do not want to see our name come up after Chicago.

But then primarily after Dallas is displayed at #11 we do NOT want to see Portland. So we want to see Houston at #10 which would mean we're in the top4.
 
I wish instead of this backwards order where you don't want to see your team they would just televise the ping pong balls being selected and start with pick #1..... I believe its four balls selected - so they could do a drawn out reveal at each ball and list all the numbers next to each team that we want to see for each ball. Then repeat for pick #2, #3, #4.
 
They also run through the order so damn fast on the show. They spend 15 minutes talking about Giannis or Flagg or whatever then go through each pick in 4 seconds each so you have no time to follow whats happening and the announcers are trying to rush to explain who jumps who and all the sudden we go from 14 teams to 4 with a big bunch of commercials.

They need to spend a good 20 seconds on each selection so we have a chance to digest what happened and who jumped who and who is slotted next. That would only be 3 minutes to run through all 10 of those selections instead of rushing to open these envelopes every 4 seconds.

Hope we start to see a better presentation of the draft lottery. Its literally one of my favorite most exciting parts of the entire season but the TV program is just so awful in how its displayed. I'll get over it if we get #1 though.
 
blazerkor said:
For those saying their money is on us ending up at 11, why the fuck is that? We have a whopping 63% chance of staying at 10, we have another 16.9% chance at moving up and for a total of 79.9% chance that we don't move back but you guys want to put money on us getting fucked over by moving back to 11 at 18.5%.

II'm keeping my fingers crossed that we get lucky and hit on that 16.9% that we move up but I'm expecting the most probable outdome of us staying at 10.
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Well #11 is better than #12 or #13. After 2-3 decades of never having the Blazers be a contender I think many fans just assume there's a way we'll end up with something bad.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
I guess the question is, when was the last time no teams outside the top four failed to move up? It seems like it happens most of the time. So I can see why some think the smart money is that we will drop a spot.
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If a team slotted 5-9 moves up we stay in the same spot though. So it would only be years that a team in slots 11-14 jumped into the top4 that would push us back. Last year Atlanta jumped up but they were in our spot at #10 so that doesn't count.

Only time I see that happening in the last 20 years was 2019 when the Lakers jumped from 11 to 4.

To go back when a team slotted #11 or lower actually won the #1 pick you have to look all the way back at 1993 which is the year the Magic won it a second time the season after drafting Shaq. I believe the NBA changed the odds the next year. So its just very uncommon for teams in the 11-14 range to jump up in the lottery. But I understand why some Blazer fans are irrationally paranoid about us getting screwed - its just statistically there is no basis to it.
 
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BlazerBeav said:
Today is not a day for doom and gloom - it's one tailor made for DELUSIONAL EXCITEMENT! We're getting that top pick!
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Its always a day for doom and gloom as a Blazers fan!

Even if we win the #1 pick today it'll probably just eventually become a story of another Blazer with career ending injuries. Then we can read for a few decades about how we screwed up another #1 overall pick.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
If a team slotted 5-9 moves up we stay in the same spot though. So it would only be years that a team in slots 11-14 jumped into the top4 that would push us back. Last year Atlanta jumped up but they were in our spot at #10 so that doesn't count.

Only time I see that happening in the last 20 years was 2019 when the Lakers jumped from 11 to 4.

To go back when a team slotted #11 or lower actually won the #1 pick you have to look all the way back at 1993 which is the year the Magic won it a second time the season after drafting Shaq. I believe the NBA changed the odds the next year. So its just very uncommon for teams in the 11-14 range to jump up in the lottery. But I understand why some Blazer fans are irrationally paranoid about us getting screwed - its just statistically there is no basis to it.
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Yeah, my bad. I deleted my post a few minutes after I wrote it, after thinking about it.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Its always a day for doom and gloom as a Blazers fan!

Even if we win the #1 pick today it'll probably just eventually become a story of another Blazer with career ending injuries. Then we can read for a few decades about how we screwed up another #1 overall pick.
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Sure, sure, all that's accurate, but for TODAY, we can all revel in the excitement. I had such a good day when we won the Oden lottery.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Its always a day for doom and gloom as a Blazers fan!

Even if we win the #1 pick today it'll probably just eventually become a story of another Blazer with career ending injuries. Then we can read for a few decades about how we screwed up another #1 overall pick.
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Exactly. If we expect the worst, we will never be disappointed!
 
BlazerBeav said:
Sure, sure, all that's accurate, but for TODAY, we can all revel in the excitement. I had such a good day when we won the Oden lottery.
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Yeah I did as well - having ROY just win the ROY and a great rookie sidekick in Aldridge capped off with winning the #1 overall pick - we looked like the Spurs do today where we were a likely dominant contender over the next decade.

We don't have a ROY or even an Aldridge on this roster though. We have a young version of Batum, Pryz and Steve Blake. But yeah if we actually do win #1 today I'll be ecstatic. Really any spot in the top3 would be awesome. I wouldn't be surprised if Harper or Bailey ultimate had a better rookie season than Flagg.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
I wouldn't be surprised if Harper or Bailey ultimate had a better rookie season than Flagg.
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Yeah, this would not surprise me at all. I guess which team they each go to could be a factor, but I don't expect Flagg to put up numbers in his first year that voters seem to be influenced by.
 
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