38 - 24 with 20 Games to Go - Acceptable?

[Boob-No-More]

Right now the Blazers are 19 - 12, half a game out of 1st place in the NW Division and 6th seed in the Western Conference. They survived an absolutely brutal early season schedule, in spite of injuries and with three rookies getting substantial playing time. They have struggled at times and lost a few games recently that they should have won. They have also had some impressive victories over some very good teams (San Antonio, Houston, Orlando and Detroit on the road, a 15-point win over the Hornets, etc.), stole some last second victories, and had some huge blow outs (42-point win over the Bulls, a 38-point win over Miami who is currently 16-12 and the 6th seed in the East, a 32-point win over the Kings, etc.).

Yet, after every game, win or lose, this forum is chock full of negative posts about the team. If we lose, we are terrible, need to fire the coach and trade half the roster. If we win, it's a hollow victory, we need to fire the coach and trade half the roster. Seriously, what does it take to make Blazer fans happy?

If you go back and look at the preseason polls and posts on that other forum, most thought we'd squeak into the play-offs with the 8th seed and win about 47 - 49 games. A few of the more optimistic posters had us winning 50 - 52 and getting the 6th seed. I personally predicted 56 - 58 wins and fighting for the 4th seed (and, I'm sticking to that prediction).

So, in spite of the injuries and the tough schedule, the team is 19 - 12. If we double that, we get 38 - 24 with 20 games to go, and most likely in a dog fight with Denver and Utah for 1st in the NW Division. So, if we're 38 - 24 with 20 games to go, on pace to win 50 games, would that make people here happy, or will this forum still be full of doom and gloom posts?

I know it's not fashionable, but I'm more optimistic than that. Just looking at the next 31 games, I can easily see the Blazers going 21 - 10 (or even 22 - 9). That would put them at 40 - 22, on pace to win 53 games and still in contention for the 4th or 5th seed in the West.

Come on folks, lighten up. The season is 82 games long. There are bound to be a few disappointing losses, and a few unexpected victories. The team is having their best season in six years (quite possibly their best season since 1999-2000) and on pace to make the play-offs. We should be, collectively, enjoying this. I know I am. I've had a blast at the games (like last night), but the negativity here is overwhelming. If all you did was read this forum, you'd think the team was 12 - 19 (or worse), not 19 - 12. I fear Portland fans are becoming the next Boston fans - losing for so long that we don't know how to accept winning with class.

BNM

 

[alex42083]

Yet, after every game, win or lose, this forum is chock full of negative posts about the team. If we lose, we are terrible, need to fire the coach and trade half the roster. If we win, it's a hollow victory, we need to fire the coach and trade half the roster. Seriously, what does it take to make Blazer fans happy?
BNM

First off, I agree with your entire post.
And I wish I had the answer to what makes fans happy. I don't mind healthy discussions about what's going wrong or why we're not playing well, but to call out every single player to trade him and fire Nate after every game is utterly ridiculous. Maybe it's just easier to criticize than to praise for some people..

 

[DaRizzle]

I always picture the first 30 seconds of this clip when I read the "Debbie Downer" threads...lol
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I also agree with everything you said BNM...Sometimes a team just doesnt play well/smart for a night, no need to call for changes in personal after every game...with of course the person who should get traded changes after every game.

After Lakers losses last year I learned to stay away from posting for a couple of hours/til the next day...you think more rational that way

 

[yenniedn]

I concur - I've been on the board less and less because the negativity really ruins any of the joy for me as a fan. The team's not perfect and we, as fans, have a right to want the best possible product on the floor but the way a lot of the people around here go about it just makes me want to find other things to do with my time instead of reading the same shiet over and over.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The Blazers are currently 8th in the league (5th in the Western Conference) in Hollinger's Power Rankings. He also projects them at 50 wins, 5th seed in the West with a 93% chance of making the play-offs.

At basketball-reference.com, the Blazers are currently ranked 7th in the league (4th in the West) by their SRS (Simple Rating System).

I'd call that progress for a team that has missed the play-offs 5 years in a row - especially given the brutal early schedule and the fact that three rookies are getting significant playing time on the second youngest team in the league. This team isn't anywhere close to reaching their potential, but are currently one of the top 8 teams in the entire league.

Yet, the vast majority of the posts in this forum are negative (Fool's Gold, fire Nate, Frye sucks, trade half the team, etc.).

I'll ask again, what exactly will it take to make all the naysayers happy? No, we're not a top 3 team in the league. But, did anyone actually expect we would be right now?

BNM

 

[DaRizzle]

No, we're not a top 3 team in the league. But, did anyone actually expect we would be right now?

Yes, but I wont name names...Lets just say their SN's rhyme with "Pocketear" and "Flingsheed"

...but to their defense, they arent the ones putting out the doom and gloom threads/posts for the most part

 

[Drink Your Milkshake]

I didn't expect us to be a top 3 team at this point in the season. In fact I thought the Blazers record would be a little worse than it is and a lot of people would be sleeping on the team. I did however think that the Blazers would be a top 4 WC team by the end of the season, and I still believe that.

 

[Drink Your Milkshake]

The Blazers are one trade away from making a strong run this season.

 

[MrJayremmie]

I would gladly take 38-24! We are doing great! (editted for bad math, btw) We are on pace for like 53 wins, but we already got the hardest part out of the way if you add the Home/Away ratio, teams we play, and time in between games, the hardest part of the season is over, so I think we can do better than just stay on this pace. I think we can get to like 55ish wins, which would be absolutely amazing!

But I think for the most part, our fans do what all message boards do/should do. We examine and critique our teams play, and we put out suggestions for what we think can/will improve the team. I also agree that some people take it over board, and their over negativity ruin some of the joy from this team... because its just a game, and enjoying it is what its about.

Our team still has a long way to go, but we haven't even scraped the surface of what we can become! I'm so excited. I've said this before, but I remember a fan from the Spurs telling me a while back that the ride to becoming a contender is the most fun part of the whole thing. Watching your team that you stuck with through thick and thin come together and kick ass. I think some of us are missing that.

But its their right to be as positive/negative as they would like, and it helps generate discussion.

Anyway, GO BLAZERS! GO DUCKS!

 

[rocketeer]

Yes, but I wont name names...Lets just say their SN's rhyme with "Pocketear" and "Flingsheed"

...but to their defense, they arent the ones putting out the doom and gloom threads/posts for the most part

i said 55 wins and the 4th seed. at this point, the team doesn't look that far off from that. they are on pace for 50 wins, the toughest part of the schedule has already been played, and i think everyone had to expect a young team like that blazers would be better towards the end of the season than at the beginning. i think that makes my regular season prediction look pretty good thus far.

 

[DaRizzle]

i said 55 wins and the 4th seed.

You also said they would win the 'ship

 

[rocketeer]

You also said they would win the 'ship

i know. we'll get to that when it comes around.

if the playoffs started today, the blazers wouldn't be winning the title. but they still have time to get there.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

if the playoffs started today, the blazers wouldn't be winning the title. but they still have time to get there.

Yeah they do. They have until 2011.

 

[Ed O]

No I won't be happy at 38-24. I predicted 48 wins or so, and given the strong start this team got off to against a very tough schedule if they only finish around 50 wins I'll be disappointed.

Not, like, "tear it down and start over" disappointed, but I think being happy with 50 wins given where this team has been so far would not be something I could do.

Ed O.

 

[barfo]

No I won't be happy at 38-24. I predicted 48 wins or so, and given the strong start this team got off to against a very tough schedule if they only finish around 50 wins I'll be disappointed.

Not, like, "tear it down and start over" disappointed, but I think being happy with 50 wins given where this team has been so far would not be something I could do.

Ed O.

You are a hard man to please, Ed. I'll take the 50 wins and smile about it.

barfo

 

[chris_in_pdx]

You are a hard man to please, Ed. I'll take the 50 wins and smile about it.

barfo

No doubt. After where this team has been the last several years? I'll take 48 wins/50 wins and a first round playoff series and jump for joy.

 

[Ed O]

You are a hard man to please, Ed. I'll take the 50 wins and smile about it.

I expected/predicted 48 wins. I didn't HOPE for 48 wins. I didn't make 48 wins the point at which I'd be happy with the team.

Given the way the team started, I don't think expecting two more wins is being too tough on the team, and I won't be happy to have the team simply meet my expectations.

Ed O.

 

[crowTrobot]

we're 5-6 in our last 11 and showing some exploitable flaws. at this point the only thing i care about is making the playoffs. if we are able to do it with just 48-50 wins i will be happy.

 

[Minstrel]

No I won't be happy at 38-24. I predicted 48 wins or so, and given the strong start this team got off to against a very tough schedule if they only finish around 50 wins I'll be disappointed.

Yeah, I understand this. I had predicted 48-50 wins, but that was predicated upon an expectation that they'd struggle with their early schedule. Now that they haven't, I would be disappointed if they finished at 48-50 wins.

Essentially, the games that have been played are "in the bank." They have no bearing on the rest of the season. I want them to at least play up to my pre-season expectations for their 2009 stretch...and when you add that to their surprisingly good 2008 stretch, that should add up to significantly more than 50 wins. Just because they played better than expected through the first 31 games doesn't mean it should be acceptable to play worse than expected for the remaining 51 games.

55 wins seems reasonable to me now. Anywhere above 50 wins would be fine. Between 45 and 50 wins would be a bit of a disappointment now.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

We're on pace to win 50, which is good. I'd like to see 52, which is what I predicted in August. I think there's some flaws in our bench play that we can improve in a couple of different ways (by making sure we always have 4 scoring threats on the floor, either by keeping a scoring starter in and shortening the rotation, or by making sure either or backup C or PG can create their own shot). But I have faith that, if I can see these flaws, the people in charge can too... and the changes will be made.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Given our tough schedule, Martell's injury, and Oden's foot injury that contributed to his slow start - plus tying to integrate three rookies players into our top 6 rotation players, I'm very happy with our current record (which is why I shake my head at all the doom and gloom posts after every game).

I do agree with Ed and Minstrel that I expect the Blazers to finish with more than 50 wins. As I said, my original prediction was 56 - 58 wins and given the easier schedule ahead and the fact that the young guys, especially Oden, should continue to improve, I strill think 56 - 58 wins is very possible.

I also realize that it's a long season and things happen (injuries, shooting slumps, rookies hitting the wall with fatgue, etc.). So, if the team only wins 50 - 52, I'll be a little disappointed, but not overly so. As long as they make the play-offs it's a big step forward in this young team's evolution. I've enjoyed watching them grow this season and look forward to watching their continued growth and improvement.

BNM

 

[Public Defender]

My expectations for this team remain about the same, which is that they'll wind up winning about 50 games. That is both what I believe is a realistic estimate, and what I think is a more than respectable finish to a season led largely by a single All-Star and a very young core. The only result that would truly disappoint me is if the Blazers failed to make the post-season entirely. Squeaking in at 7 or 8 would be fine. Reaching the top 6 would be gravy.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm one of the optimistic homers who picked 58. If we go 19-12 over our next stretch, it'll probably be a bit of a disappointment for me just b/c we've played pretty well against the hard part of our schedule (and a few games left in that) and I don't want the same record against the "scrubs" of the league. We should make some hay against the poorer teams.

That said, what will make me happy is pretty easy. Pick a strategy, and stick to it. If Nate/KP tell me we're going to stay with who we have and build for 2011, I want Bayless starting and making rookie mistakes and giving us increased chances to lose games. I want Sergio getting 15-20 mpg come hell or high turnovers. I want an offense implemented that does not involve standing around, even if we're creating turnovers left and right trying to get it. Oden gets the ball 20 possessions per game whether he likes it or not.

If they tell me that they're making a big consolidation trade (haven't heard that term in a while, have you?), I expect that we play to win the game. Don't worry about feelings, but don't tolerate mistakes from people like Outlaw and Blake who should know better. Reign Sergio in some, have Greg work on being a defensive stopper, attack the boards every shot, get tough mentally.

Right now we're in a limbo of saying let the cake bake while not actually doing the things you need to do to evaluate. Blake's not starting for us after this summer, and definitely not in Championship Run 2011 (which even the most pessimistic think is the goal). So what is there to evaluate? I understand if you say he's "teaching JB how to play selflessly". Great. Does he need to do that 30 mpg with an EFF of 12.5 (2.5 below "Average league starter")? Is Frye or Diogu going to be here after this summer? If you don't know, play to evaluate! If you do know, play them only when necessary.

The things I complain about after games is stupidity by our veterans (who I count as Roy the All-Star, Blake, Outlaw and Przy) and lack of effort by anyone. Those are trends that have been going on for at least a year now. The "youth" of our team everyone likes to bring up also comes with a responsibility to never take a flippin' game off. I understand they've had a brutal schedule. That doesn't mean the Clips should bring it down to the wire. All the apologists of "we won, who cares" then wonder how we get our a$$es handed to us when we play good-to-great teams. You should be taking something from every game to improve upon, whether your average age is 23 or 33, whether you win by 10 or lose by 20. When these things don't happen, you'll continue to hear me harp on it.

 

[Minstrel]

If they tell me that they're making a big consolidation trade (haven't heard that term in a while, have you?)

We haven't, but that's because we fans simply ran out of things to talk about on that topic. Actual moves were always likeliest to happen closer to the trade deadline...more time to evaluate the team, more time to see who becomes available.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Blake's not starting for us after this summer, and definitely not in Championship Run 2011 (which even the most pessimistic think is the goal). So what is there to evaluate? I understand if you say he's "teaching JB how to play selflessly". Great. Does he need to do that 30 mpg with an EFF of 12.5 (2.5 below "Average league starter")?

You're confusing two different terms and it's lead you to a false conclusion.

EFF is an official NBA stat. It's a simple good minus bad sum of the basic boxscore stats (points + rebounds + assists + blocks + steals - TOs - missed FTs - missed FGs). It can be calculated for a specific game just by looking at the boxscore, or for the season by adding up the players season totals and dividing by the number of games played. There is no attempt to normalize based on minutes played or game pace. It's purely raw production.

Blake's EFF = 12.5
Sergio's EFF = 6.27

PER is a more complex formula developed by John Hollinger. It does take into account minutes played and game pace. The exact formula can be found here:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

This is the formula that attempts to equate a rating of 15.0 to an "average NBA starter".

Blake's PER = 15.9
Sergio's PER = 13.9

BNM

 

[DaRizzle]

I'm one of the optimistic homers who picked 58.

Believing the Blazers are gonna win 58 games this year is like believing there is a God!


...sorry, I couldnt resist, nothin personal

 

[MrJayremmie]

Believing the Blazers are gonna win 58 games this year is like believing there is a God!


...sorry, I couldnt resist, nothin personal

Edit... not going to talk about it for the sake of this thread.

 

[RayDavies]

58 seems like a BIG stretch to me.

I will be very happy POR can finish with 50 wins, and possibly win a first round playoff series.

If we can improve our defense,and/or increase our pace/FG attempts, I think that scenario is possible.

 

[Mediocre Man]

we're 5-6 in our last 11 and showing some exploitable flaws. at this point the only thing i care about is making the playoffs. if we are able to do it with just 48-50 wins i will be happy.

Exactly.


We got off to a much better start than most everyone expected, but now teams have scouted a bit more, and all of our flaws are being exposed.

Some fans think it's wrong to point this out, but I think it's better to be a realist. Most teams will be able to shyut Portland down if they shut Roy down. It's that simple. Our defense isn't good enough to stop anyone, and we don't get enough easy baskets or free throws to make up for the loss of Roy's points.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

Yet if you believe there is a God, and live like the Bible says, and it ends up that there is no God, you lose nothing. But if you live like there is not a God, and there IS a God... well...

That has to be the most twisted and insane logic for believing in something I've ever heard.