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Trump has a solid cult following of about 36% of the population (you know who you are).
There are another 0-8% that might vote for him, depending on which way the wind blows on election day. There's no indication at present that he could possibly get near 50%.
In a real two-person race, that would mean defeat. But if significant numbers of people vote for a 3rd party candidate, then it's plenty enough to win (see, e.g., 2016).
So I believe Trump will do everything he can to encourage third party candidates, up to and including financing their campaigns (or having some of his friends overseas finance them) with or without their knowledge, and/or bribing them with job offers, cash, girls, drugs, if that's what it takes. Or alternatively, blackmailing them.
So who is it going to be? There are already several possibilities:
Justin Amash - he'd peel some anti-Trump voters away from the Democrat
Andrew Yang - he seems to be aiming at independents more than democrats. I don't have any reason to believe he'd go independent if he doesn't get the D nomination, but he's well positioned to if that's his desire
Tulsi Gabbard - She seems to appeal to conservatives quite a bit, as evidenced here on S2. She has already shown some interest in being on team Trump. If she chose to, she'd take some votes from the D nominee.
Howard Shultz - entirely possible he gets back into it again, he really believes he should be president.
Someone from Green Party - will get a percentage of votes no matter who it is
Someone from Libertarian Party - same comment as Green
Others?
barfo
There are another 0-8% that might vote for him, depending on which way the wind blows on election day. There's no indication at present that he could possibly get near 50%.
In a real two-person race, that would mean defeat. But if significant numbers of people vote for a 3rd party candidate, then it's plenty enough to win (see, e.g., 2016).
So I believe Trump will do everything he can to encourage third party candidates, up to and including financing their campaigns (or having some of his friends overseas finance them) with or without their knowledge, and/or bribing them with job offers, cash, girls, drugs, if that's what it takes. Or alternatively, blackmailing them.
So who is it going to be? There are already several possibilities:
Justin Amash - he'd peel some anti-Trump voters away from the Democrat
Andrew Yang - he seems to be aiming at independents more than democrats. I don't have any reason to believe he'd go independent if he doesn't get the D nomination, but he's well positioned to if that's his desire
Tulsi Gabbard - She seems to appeal to conservatives quite a bit, as evidenced here on S2. She has already shown some interest in being on team Trump. If she chose to, she'd take some votes from the D nominee.
Howard Shultz - entirely possible he gets back into it again, he really believes he should be president.
Someone from Green Party - will get a percentage of votes no matter who it is
Someone from Libertarian Party - same comment as Green
Others?
barfo

