A Practice in Expectations

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Schilly

Schilly

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A significant number of Fans in here have had very little patience for either CJ McCollum or Meyers Leonard. CJ was taken #10 and Meyers #11. I've been trying to decide what level of players we should expect in this range in the draft. Lets take a look at 10, 11 and 12 over a 5 year window going back from 2011. I will give the players a score based on their level. This is my scale

5 - Super Star
4 - All Star (at least once)
3 - Starter
2 - Rotational Reserve (12+ mpg)
1 - On a roster
0 - Not in League

2011
10: Jimmer Fredette (1)
11: Klay Thompson (3.5)
12: Alec Burk (3)

2010
10: Paul George (5)
11: Cole Aldrich (1)
12: Xavier Henry (1)

2009
10: Brandon Jennings (3)
11: Terrence Williams (0)
12: Gerald Henderson (2.5)

2008
10: Brook Lopez (4)
11: Jerryd Bayless (2)
12: Jason Thompson (3)

2007
10: Spencer Hawes (2.5)
11: Acie Law (0)
12: Thaddeus Young (3)

If you average that out we come out with 2.26. So reasonable expectations should be for a Rotational role player.
 
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Hawes was a starter for most his career. So that number needs to change.
 
magnifier661 said:
Hawes was a starter for most his career. So that number needs to change.
Click to expand...

Yeah. He should get a 3. The reason being is there should be another demographic of "6th Man". That should be a 3 as well.
 
We could definitely get into a splitting hairs mode. A reserve on a good team, is likely different than a reserve on a bad team, same for starters.
 
Schilly said:
He has started less than 70% of his games, I will bump him up half a point.
Click to expand...
Seems fair.

I'm hoping for CJ at about 2.5, i.e. sixth man and borderline starter in the right situation (if Jarret Jack can do it, why not CJ) and Meyers at 2.5 to 3.0, when it's all said and done. Using Przybilla's career as a comp, and considering Meyers' size and skill are more rare than CJ's tweener guard skill set, I think he has potential to reach starter status at some point (in the right situation), however, he might have to learn to be a center if he wants to actually start.

Note I said "hoping". RE expectations: CJ @ 2 and Meyers at 2.5. More is gravy.
 
Henry should also be bumped up to a 2, as this is the first year he hasn't averaged 12 mpg, and that's only over an 8 game span.

Overall results won't be affected much, though.
 
Here are some reasons to question your methodology:

1. We want our GM to be better than most GMs. There are picks that some GMs make that are universally (and rightly) regarded as egregious at the time. Now, this might not be the GM's fault, it might be an interfering owner insisting on "his guy", but still.
2. Your methodology kind of makes it seem as if there are only 3 players available, but in fact, there are hundreds of players available after the first 9 players in any draft, and if you continue your list of players for any draft you will find several 3s, 4s and possibly even 5s. So, given that they were available, we (perhaps unfairly) think that the GM, with all his resources, should've got them. Now, this is more or less unfair depending on the circumstances. So, for example, consider the Nolan Smith pick. He was a bust, but so are most #21 (or whatever he was) picks. But EVERYBODY was saying "TAKE FARIED!" and rightly so. (Okay, I was saying "take Mirotic!" but nobody was saying "Take Nolan Smith!") So the fact that the average #21 pick is a bust doesn't get our front office off the hook for that one.
3. (Kind of the flipside of #2) Shouldn't our expectations be recallibrated according to the strength of the draft class, as it becomes evident over the ensuing years? So Meyers is more forgivable because it was, frankly, not a great draft. I was weeping over us not taking Royce White, something I keep to myself these days. More recently I've claimed that I wanted John Henson (and it's certainly true I would've taken him over Leonard), but he's not really taken off like a rocket either. Draymond Green might be your best alternative, and he's not going to be anyone's all-star.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Here are some reasons to question your methodology:

1. We want our GM to be better than most GMs. There are picks that some GMs make that are universally (and rightly) regarded as egregious at the time. Now, this might not be the GM's fault, it might be an interfering owner insisting on "his guy", but still.
2. Your methodology kind of makes it seem as if there are only 3 players available, but in fact, there are hundreds of players available after the first 9 players in any draft, and if you continue your list of players for any draft you will find several 3s, 4s and possibly even 5s. So, given that they were available, we (perhaps unfairly) think that the GM, with all his resources, should've got them. Now, this is more or less unfair depending on the circumstances. So, for example, consider the Nolan Smith pick. He was a bust, but so are most #21 (or whatever he was) picks. But EVERYBODY was saying "TAKE FARIED!" and rightly so. (Okay, I was saying "take Mirotic!" but nobody was saying "Take Nolan Smith!") So the fact that the average #21 pick is a bust doesn't get our front office off the hook for that one.
3. (Kind of the flipside of #2) Shouldn't our expectations be recallibrated according to the strength of the draft class, as it becomes evident over the ensuing years? So Meyers is more forgivable because it was, frankly, not a great draft. I was weeping over us not taking Royce White, something I keep to myself these days. More recently I've claimed that I wanted John Henson (and it's certainly true I would've taken him over Leonard), but he's not really taken off like a rocket either. Draymond Green might be your best alternative, and he's not going to be anyone's all-star.
Click to expand...

The point wasn't to be meticulously accurate but more as a general scope of the draft range. Clearly strength of draft is factor, and just as there are 4's and 5's farther down in the draft I am kinda going for "lump" average expectation as a fan. My feeling is that in the top 10 or so the bar of "Starter" is appropriate While 11 through about 25 Rotational player is probably appropriate and then 25-30 "on a roster" works. Of course there is no 100% evaluation method.
 
Schilly said:
The point wasn't to be meticulously accurate but more as a general scope of the draft range. Clearly strength of draft is factor, and just as there are 4's and 5's farther down in the draft I am kinda going for "lump" average expectation as a fan. My feeling is that in the top 10 or so the bar of "Starter" is appropriate While 11 through about 25 Rotational player is probably appropriate and then 25-30 "on a roster" works. Of course there is no 100% evaluation method.
Click to expand...

Fair enough, but the reason most of us bitched about these guys (those that did) is because there was/were specific guys available that we thought were better (like the whole Nolan Smith/Faried business). So saying "he's as good as the average player taken at that position over the past ten years" isn't much comfort. What IS a comfort is if the players we thought would be better turn out to be shit. Royce White turned out to be unstable, and Henson is still skinny as a rail and not a scorer (plus Meyers has improved to be semi-servicable), so I'm not so mad about Meyers as I was at the time. Adams, Antetokounmpo, Dieng, Gobert and maybe even Mason Plumlee are looking pretty damn good, so it's still possible to be a bit mad about CJ. However, even there, acquiring both Rolo and Kaman means that we're not wanting for centers, so it's really only Giannis that we can be mad about, and honestly, any of us who said we knew he'd be good would be lying.
 
Bbert hit on the head what I've been thinking regarding Meyers. Granted, the skillsets are different, but if you would've looked at Przybilla in his first 4 years in the league he had an ORtg of 88 and a Drtg of 103, with PERs in the 7 range. He looked uncoordinated and injury-prone. Then he morphed into a badass at about the time that normal players hit their prime (amazing how it happened).

The kid's 22, starting his 3rd season after being deep bench for most of the first two. :dunno:
 
OTOH, there have been a lot more bigs who haven't panned out.

Anyway....

Interesting idea Shilly. The problem is that my expections are based on what me-the-homer feels I NEED. We can't just wait around until we get another lotto pick like some teams. We NEED to hit it. As a next iteration, incorporating number of starts would be interesting. None of our young players outside of Lillard have been given a chance to start a significant portion of the season - we already have our starters.
BrianFromWA said:
Bbert hit on the head what I've been thinking regarding Meyers. Granted, the skillsets are different, but if you would've looked at Przybilla in his first 4 years in the league he had an ORtg of 88 and a Drtg of 103, with PERs in the 7 range. He looked uncoordinated and injury-prone. Then he morphed into a badass at about the time that normal players hit their prime (amazing how it happened).

The kid's 22, starting his 3rd season after being deep bench for most of the first two. :dunno:
Click to expand...
 
BrianFromWA said:
Bbert hit on the head what I've been thinking regarding Meyers. Granted, the skillsets are different, but if you would've looked at Przybilla in his first 4 years in the league he had an ORtg of 88 and a Drtg of 103, with PERs in the 7 range. He looked uncoordinated and injury-prone. Then he morphed into a badass at about the time that normal players hit their prime (amazing how it happened).

The kid's 22, starting his 3rd season after being deep bench for most of the first two. :dunno:
Click to expand...

I think Leonard is falling into the Mehmet Okur career path, which is probably a good thing for him.
 
Hell, if he's in between Ryan Anderson and Steve Novak, that's a heckuva skillset in a guy who can actually rebound.

I'll caveat that with: I am still on the Leonard bandwagon. He tries hard, doesn't look totally dumb, can shoot and rebound. He's also a very mobile 7'1.
 
Anderson and Novak can hit a 3 with someone in their grill, Biebs can't. OTOH, Biebs can rebound better than either of them. Not on the Biebs bandwagon, but would LOVE to be proven wrong. The problem is that I see him in the way of TRob developing who I think has a much higher ceiling...

BrianFromWA said:
Hell, if he's in between Ryan Anderson and Steve Novak, that's a heckuva skillset in a guy who can actually rebound.

I'll caveat that with: I am still on the Leonard bandwagon. He tries hard, doesn't look totally dumb, can shoot and rebound. He's also a very mobile 7'1.
Click to expand...
 
I don't know who has the higher ceiling, but I do think Stotts values Leonard's skill set more. Right or wrong, those are the rules of engagement at the moment.
 
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm



Average Career Stats by draft pick number
Pick # Gms Min Pts Reb Ast Rtg Star Solid RoleP DeepB Bust DNP
1 20 555 32.9 16.6 7.8 2.7 27.0 70% 25% 5%
2 20 583 29.6 12.9 5.9 2.8 21.6 60% 25% 15%
3 20 535 31.9 15.2 5.1 3.5 23.8 85% 10% 5%
4 20 585 30.5 13.7 5.5 3.1 22.2 60% 30% 10%
5 20 552 28.7 13.4 4.9 2.7 21.1 60% 15% 10% 15%
6 20 406 25.4 10.2 4.6 1.7 16.5 25% 30% 30% 15%
7 20 483 26.8 10.9 4.3 2.6 17.8 30% 40% 25% 5%
8 20 397 22.9 9.3 3.9 1.9 15.2 35% 15% 15% 35%
9 20 460 23.1 10.2 4.9 1.6 16.6 30% 10% 35% 20% 5%
10 20 497 24.6 10.2 4.4 2.2 16.7 35% 25% 25% 10% 5%
11 20 389 19.4 7.5 3.5 1.4 12.4 15% 15% 30% 35% 5%
12 20 372 18.8 6.6 3.7 1.3 11.6 5% 15% 40% 30% 10%
13 20 447 22.7 9.8 3.7 1.9 15.4 20% 35% 15% 30%
14 20 312 21.1 8.8 3.0 1.9 13.7 25% 20% 25% 10% 20%
15 20 348 17.4 6.6 2.9 1.4 10.8 10% 15% 30% 20% 20% 5%
 
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