A Statistical look at the 2015 NBA Draft

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Fez Hammersticks said:
Wright is dropping while younger 'upside' prospects are rising. Delon will turn 24 during his rookie season.
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I see one mock where he goes 21 to Dallas. That makes a lot of sense for them especially if they keep Monta Ellis. (Which I assume they will) He would be perfect next to him for similar reasons that he would fit in well next to Dame and CJ.
 
BonesJones said:
I can't help but notice it seems guard heavy... I think your "ballhog" variable might be too tough on big men? Since they don't really share the ball like a guard does
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Yeah, that was a tough metric to incorporate. I tried to look at the big men stats and set it at a threshold that made the most sense for them.
 
3RA1N1AC said:
I like how you identified kawhi leaonard and draymond green, your defensive metrics are on point.
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Those defense metrics are the toughest. I think the matching criteria helped balance that a bit. In this year's draft, WCS is ranked a bit lower than I though probably because it couldn't measure his defensive impact, and couldn't find a good successful/comparable match. The 'eye test' is a bit difficult to quantify.
 
Blazer4ever said:
I like Ryan Boatright and Aaron White, Also I think both of the Kentucky brothers should do well although I haven't seen them enough to even tell them apart. Dekker and Kaminsky both played very well in the tournament.
It's a great job you did with the numbers but I'd be interested about how many players you took into acount. I don't completely understand how to do the equation but I think a guy like Warren Gillis could do very well in your statistical system.
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I have about 70 players that I took into account for the 2015 draft. I put in any player that I saw on any of the top draft boards.

Warren Gillis. Coastal Carolina? Well, that's one I didn't have on the list. He rates a BdB score of 6.0. I think he gets hit hard on their Strength of Schedule and he's also a senior. You have to have some pretty impressive stats if you're "old" and from a small school.

Boatright measured out as the smallest player in the draft, with the shortest wingspan. As a point guard, he only had a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio. He shot well from 3 point range, but only 43% from 2pt range. He got a BdB score of 20.2. He's got a lot to overcome there if he's going to be successful at the NBA level. He's shown on some mock drafts as late second round.

Aaron White had some good numbers. He came in at 22 on my list with a BdB score of 43.3. Iowa had a tough SOS, and did very respectable W/L as a team. He's an efficient scorer, plus a good rebounder. He's in that range where he's got a shot at hanging on with an NBA team. He's shown on some mock drafts as mid second round. He might be a good pick in that range.
 
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42N8Bounce said:
Yeah, that was a tough metric to incorporate. I tried to look at the big men stats and set it at a threshold that made the most sense for them.
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gotcha. Maybe you could do a combination of shooting% and points to assist ratio. If a guy is getting 20 ppg and 1ast, but he's shooting over 50%, then it's not a problem that he's taking all the shots, know what I mean? Plus big men usually shoot a higher % with less assists so it could be balanced. And it'd still do it's job to negatively affect the type of ballhog who scores 16 a game, shoots 40% FG - 30% 3P, while only getting 1 assist per game
 
For anyone interested, draftexpress has a decent article where 4-5 different guys give a short explain action of how they come up with their ratings and gave their top 10.
 
tester551 said:
For anyone interested, draftexpress has a decent article where 4-5 different guys give a short explain action of how they come up with their ratings and gave their top 10.
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link?
 
tester551 said:
For anyone interested, draftexpress has a decent article where 4-5 different guys give a short explain action of how they come up with their ratings and gave their top 10.
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Good read. Thanks.
It's interesting that 4 out of the 5 had Delon Wright in their top 12. Only the second one (Steve Shea) didn't have Delon. He was also the only one that had Cameron Payne on his list. I've got Payne at #4, and Wright at #10.
I've seen Trey Lykes ranked pretty high in a lot of mocks. My BdB ranking has him at #22. He doesn't show up in the top 14 for any of these analysts.
Kevin Looney shows up on all 5 of these lists. My rankings have him at #19. A BdB score of 45.5 - a top reserve.
Outside of the top 3, there's a lot of uncertainty. That's what makes the draft so fun.
 
jlprk said:
There was another guy with a college system who started a thread here 3 years ago and then disappeared. His biggest difference from mock drafts was that his system had Jae Crowder as a high choice. Crowder then got drafted #34, quite higher than the mocks had expected, and has succeeded.

You aren't that poster, are you? Can anyone find that thread?
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Fez Hammersticks said:
Hickory-High (no longer exists for whatever reason) rated Crowder extremely high.
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I can't find his posts. You mean he's been erased from history? Where are his posts?

42N8Bounce said:
Yes. That was me. I've modified the system quite a bit over the past three years. I take each draft and add the additional players into the comparison database so it gets a bit 'smarter' each year. Although with each modification to the system, it changes it's past draft choices. As noted in a post above, it now likes Jae Crowder as the 3rd choice during that draft. A bit high overall, but much better than a second round choice.
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Alright! Next time Denny belittles my memory I'll cite this post. Believe it or not, I've thought of your threads oh, about once a week for the last 3 years. Here they are. Anyone who likes this current thread should check out your old threads.

http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/the-best-way-to-predict-the-future.215025/

http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/busts-and-gems.215557/
 
Hickory-High was a solid analytical site.

Ed Weidland's HoopsAnalyst.com is another great one.
 
42N8Bounce said:
I have about 70 players that I took into account for the 2015 draft. I put in any player that I saw on any of the top draft boards.

Warren Gillis. Coastal Carolina? Well, that's one I didn't have on the list. He rates a BdB score of 6.0. I think he gets hit hard on their Strength of Schedule and he's also a senior. You have to have some pretty impressive stats if you're "old" and from a small school.

Boatright measured out as the smallest player in the draft, with the shortest wingspan. As a point guard, he only had a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio. He shot well from 3 point range, but only 43% from 2pt range. He got a BdB score of 20.2. He's got a lot to overcome there if he's going to be successful at the NBA level. He's shown on some mock drafts as late second round.

Aaron White had some good numbers. He came in at 22 on my list with a BdB score of 43.3. Iowa had a tough SOS, and did very respectable W/L as a team. He's an efficient scorer, plus a good rebounder. He's in that range where he's got a shot at hanging on with an NBA team. He's shown on some mock drafts as mid second round. He might be a good pick in that range.
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I think that's the system biggest weakness then. If Gillis gets a 6.0 rating there's too much emphasis on SoS, also may be the reason Lillard was just 10th.
 
Blazer4ever said:
I think that's the system biggest weakness then. If Gillis gets a 6.0 rating there's too much emphasis on SoS, also may be the reason Lillard was just 10th.
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Looking at the small school players - This year I've got Cameron Payne rated #4. He's from Murry State. That's quite a bit higher than most boards show him. Tyler Harvey from Eastern Washington is rated higher than most boards show him coming in at #27.

Here are Warren Gillis' numbers: Coastal Carolina, 6'3", 13.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 0.1 bpg, 1.4 spg, 2.2 fpg, 2.6 tpg, 43.7% fg, 30.6% 3pt. The main goal of my rating system is a predictor of NBA success. Is a BdB score of 6.0 too low? Perhaps. But I give it pretty long odds that he plays a game in the NBA. Stranger things have happened though I guess.

You've hit a key component of any rating system. Comparing a Duke player to a Coastal Carolina player. A rebound at one school isn't equal to a rebound at another school. Rating players from small schools is hit-and-miss. Lillard was a bit of an exception as far as small school success. I certainly liked him going into the draft, and this version of my rating system only had him at #10. Being a Blazer fan, I'm certainly glad he proved that to be too low.
 
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I still think maybe the emphasis on strength of schedule is too big. For example, how does a player like CJ rate on your system? He also came from a relatively small school.
With Gillis I think his numbers also went up through his college career. I'm not sure but I think the numbers you've listed are throughout his college career and don't reflect his year-by-year improvement. Another issue I have is with Seniors getting a lower grade. The best Blazer guards of the decade were seniors (Roy, Lillard, Wesley, CJ) and I think from my experience as a fan, this proved to be a plus rather than a minus.
Anyway, the results your system showed are very interesting, some very good non-obvious predictions that you made.
 
What about Seth Tuttle?



On 12.9 field goal attempts per 40 minutes pace adjusted, Tuttle averaged 22.7 points per 40 minutes pace adjusted on 64.9% shooting on two point field goal attempts and 42.9% on three point field goal attempts. Tuttle is one of the most efficient players in college basketball, as he posted the highest true shooting percentage of the four players in our database who attempted at least twelve field goal attempts per 40 minutes pace adjusted while playing at least ten minutes per game.
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Blazer4ever said:
I still think maybe the emphasis on strength of schedule is too big. For example, how does a player like CJ rate on your system? He also came from a relatively small school.
With Gillis I think his numbers also went up through his college career. I'm not sure but I think the numbers you've listed are throughout his college career and don't reflect his year-by-year improvement. Another issue I have is with Seniors getting a lower grade. The best Blazer guards of the decade were seniors (Roy, Lillard, Wesley, CJ) and I think from my experience as a fan, this proved to be a plus rather than a minus.
Anyway, the results your system showed are very interesting, some very good non-obvious predictions that you made.
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CJ came in at #10 with a BdB score of 45.6. Top reserve.
Brandon Roy came in #2 with a BdB score of 67.0. Interesting results that year: 1. Tyrus Thomas, 3. Paul Millsap, 4. Shelden Williams, 5. Marcus Williams, 6. Adam Morrison, 7. Rudy Gay, 8. JJ Redic, 9. Ronnie Brewer, 10. Rodney Carney, 11. Rajon Rondo. Lamarcus was down at 14. You win some, you lose some.
 
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tester551 said:
What's your thoughts on Corey Hawkins?

This article pegs him as one of the best shooters in the draft...

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/ranking-the-2015-nba-draft-s-top-shooters-012046574.html
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Corey Hawkins, a 6'3" guard from California Davis. He came in with a BdB score of 21.8. Not bad. He wasn't on my original list, but he cracks the top 60. He's definitely a good shooter, but of course the question is - can he do that against NBA competition? Decent rebounder for his size, grabbing almost 5 a game. For being 6'3", he only has a 1.12 assist/turnover ratio. He's also a senior, and on the older side of that class also. Most seniors are about 22.5 years old. He's about 23.8.
 
42N8Bounce said:
CJ came in at #10 with a BdB score of 45.6. Top reserve.
Brandon Roy came in #2 with a BdB score of 67.0. Interesting results that year: 1. Tyrus Thomas, 3. Paul Millsap, 4. Shelden Williams, 5. Marcus Williams, 6. Adam Morrison, 7. Rudy Gay, 8. JJ Redic, 9. Ronnie Brewer, 10. Rodney Carney, 11. Rajon Rondo. Lamarcus was down at 14. You win some, you lose some.
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Wow, I totally forgot JJ Redick was that draft. Wow, he's old. Wow, I'm REALLY old.

And yes, apart from Millsap (and Roy, of course), those results are pretty catastrophic.
 
Here's a question for you, 42NBounce: who's the best NBA player with the WORST score according to your system?
 
Rastapopoulos said:
What about Seth Tuttle?

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Nice find there. Seth Tuttle from Northern Iowa came in with a 35.2 BdB score. That puts him at about #38 on my list. Not too bad. That's in the range where they've got a shot at being drafted and getting some playing time. 15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 43.2% 3 point shooter, 60.4% fg. Being a senior from a small school, most GMs will probably over look him because of his 'limited upside'. He definitely could be a 'sleeper'.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Nice find there. Seth Tuttle from Northern Iowa came in with a 35.2 BdB score. That puts him at about #38 on my list. Not too bad. That's in the range where they've got a shot at being drafted and getting some playing time. 15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 43.2% 3 point shooter, 60.4% fg. Being a senior from a small school, most GMs will probably over look him because of his 'limited upside'. He definitely could be a 'sleeper'.
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Hmm...can't handle the ball well enough to play on the perimeter, not big or athletic enough to play in the post. I don't think he has an NBA future. Unless he figures out a way to transition to the 3, he's D-League at best.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Hmm...can't handle the ball well enough to play on the perimeter, not big or athletic enough to play in the post. I don't think he has an NBA future. Unless he figures out a way to transition to the 3, he's D-League at best.
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You're talking about Matt Bonner, right?
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Here's a question for you, 42NBounce: who's the best NBA player with the WORST score according to your system?
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Fun question.
Here are a few 'misses' from 2002 - 2011:
- 2011, Chandler Parsons, 31.8 (#36), Jimmy Butler, 38.4 (#20)
- 2010, Avery Bradley, 35.3 (#36), Paul George 45.2 (#17)
- 2009, Wesley Matthews, 34.7 (#28), Darren Collison, 35.7 (#25)
- 2008, Robin Lopez, 34.3 (#35), Brook Lopez, 47.3 (#15)
- 2007, Al Thornton, 29.1 (#38)
- 2006, Randy Foye, 26.2 (#34), Lamarcus Aldridge, 44.9 (#14)
- 2005, David Lee, 36.7 (#26), Deron Williams, 47.4 (#16)
- 2003, Mo Williams, 24.9 (#33)
- 2002, Tayshaun Prince, 34.5 (#22)
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Wow, everybody's numbers like Kevon Looney. Also Delon Wright. And apparently Russell should absolutely go #1. Wonder what Minny could get for Rubio and Pekovic if they really had the balls to go for it.

(It's bad enough we have a Boozer in the NBA, now we're about to get a Looney?)
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I truly think Russell should go 1st. I don't think Towns is gonna be that great. However, I know bigs are always the players to go to for long term success.
 
At the same age Jefferson was every bit as skilled as Okafor. Towns seems more Horford than Bynum.

Looney's advanced stats are surprising. His defensive potential is there.
 
Fez Hammersticks said:
At the same age Jefferson was every bit as skilled as Okafor. Towns seems more Horford than Bynum.

Looney's advanced stats are surprising. His defensive potential is there.
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A lot of the mocks and analysts like Looney. He was #18 in the NCAA with 15 double-doubles. Season averages of 11.6 ppg, and 9.2 rpg. Although when UCLA played a ranked team, his stats dipped to 9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and UCLA went 1 W & 7 L. He didn't play his best ball when facing the top talent.
 
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