A Statistical look at the 2015 NBA Draft

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
42N8Bounce said:
Fun question.
Here are a few 'misses' from 2002 - 2011:
- 2011, Chandler Parsons, 31.8 (#36), Jimmy Butler, 38.4 (#20)
- 2010, Avery Bradley, 35.3 (#36), Paul George 45.2 (#17)
- 2009, Wesley Matthews, 34.7 (#28), Darren Collison, 35.7 (#25)
- 2008, Robin Lopez, 34.3 (#35), Brook Lopez, 47.3 (#15)
- 2007, Al Thornton, 29.1 (#38)
- 2006, Randy Foye, 26.2 (#34), Lamarcus Aldridge, 44.9 (#14)
- 2005, David Lee, 36.7 (#26), Deron Williams, 47.4 (#16)
- 2003, Mo Williams, 24.9 (#33)
- 2002, Tayshaun Prince, 34.5 (#22)
Click to expand...

There should be 2 lists of misses. 1) You missed the player's spot if the draft were reformulated today, vs. 2) you were below the player's spot in his actual draft.

...by more than 5 spots (10 if 2nd round)
 
jlprk said:
There should be 2 lists of misses. 1) You missed the player's spot if the draft were reformulated today, vs. 2) you were below the player's spot in his actual draft.

...by more than 5 spots (10 if 2nd round)
Click to expand...
Yep. What you're describing is essentially what I've tried to do when I line up my filters and look at different models. Maximizing how much talent the model grabs as compared to the what the actual draft looked like, taking into account what the draft 'should have' looked like. If I 'correct' one draft, it throw 2 other drafts out of sync. It's about striking that middle ground balance. There will always be that variability that a player changes their style (matures?) and steps up and succeeds (or fails) in the NBA where all of his college stats indicate that he wouldn't. 'Misses' will happen. I'm okay with 'missing' a player, as long as I can pick up a couple 'wins' in the process.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Fun question.
Here are a few 'misses' from 2002 - 2011:
- 2011, Chandler Parsons, 31.8 (#36), Jimmy Butler, 38.4 (#20)
- 2010, Avery Bradley, 35.3 (#36), Paul George 45.2 (#17)
- 2009, Wesley Matthews, 34.7 (#28), Darren Collison, 35.7 (#25)
- 2008, Robin Lopez, 34.3 (#35), Brook Lopez, 47.3 (#15)
- 2007, Al Thornton, 29.1 (#38)
- 2006, Randy Foye, 26.2 (#34), Lamarcus Aldridge, 44.9 (#14)
- 2005, David Lee, 36.7 (#26), Deron Williams, 47.4 (#16)
- 2003, Mo Williams, 24.9 (#33)
- 2002, Tayshaun Prince, 34.5 (#22)
Click to expand...

None of those is too bad, although it's interesting they include 3/5 of the Blazers' starting lineup, an ex-Blazer and someone we drafted and swapped for Brandon Roy. It's also the case that a lot of the whiffs were drafted low anyway (Parsons, Matthews, Butler, Prince) although some weren't (Deron, Aldridge).
 
42N8Bounce said:
Nice find there. Seth Tuttle from Northern Iowa came in with a 35.2 BdB score. That puts him at about #38 on my list. Not too bad. That's in the range where they've got a shot at being drafted and getting some playing time. 15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 43.2% 3 point shooter, 60.4% fg. Being a senior from a small school, most GMs will probably over look him because of his 'limited upside'. He definitely could be a 'sleeper'.
Click to expand...

What I think is most impressive is his high assist rate for a PF, especially since I just read that article that said that's the new "must have" in the NBA. Plus he's very versatile. I dunno if he'll work in the NBA but I predict stardom for him in Europe (and I'm actually being sincere here).
 
Rastapopoulos said:
What I think is most impressive is his high assist rate for a PF, especially since I just read that article that said that's the new "must have" in the NBA. Plus he's very versatile. I dunno if he'll work in the NBA but I predict stardom for him in Europe (and I'm actually being sincere here).
Click to expand...

That I buy. His game seams much more suited for the other side of the pond.
 
Cameron Payne at 4 is a sign of how good your model works. I guarantee he'll be the steal of this draft. Top mid-major guards have a good track record the past few years, and hes a Mike Conley clone. He'll be better than Mudiay and possibly at the same level as Russell.
 
I've heard that a sliver can travel to your heart.
 
BonesJones said:
Cameron Payne at 4 is a sign of how good your model works. I guarantee he'll be the steal of this draft. Top mid-major guards have a good track record the past few years, and hes a Mike Conley clone. He'll be better than Mudiay and possibly at the same level as Russell.
Click to expand...
It'll be interesting to see where Cameron Payne is drafted. NBADraft.net has him at #14. DraftExpress has him at #14. 4 out of the 5 analysts from DraftExpress (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Analytics-Models-and-the-NBA-Draft-5021) didn't have Payne in their top 14.

Payne was #13 in the NCAA for points per game (20.2 ppg), he was #15 in the NCAA for assists per game (6.0 apg), he had a very nice 2.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, he averaged almost 2 steels per game, shot 37.7% from 3 point range, and he pulled down quite a few rebounds for a guard (3.7 rpg). There's a lot to like with those numbers. Very well balanced.

He's going to have to out perform some pretty good competition though if he's going to earn that #4 spot that he got from my model. Only time will tell..
 
42N8Bounce said:
It'll be interesting to see where Cameron Payne is drafted. NBADraft.net has him at #14. DraftExpress has him at #14. 4 out of the 5 analysts from DraftExpress (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Analytics-Models-and-the-NBA-Draft-5021) didn't have Payne in their top 14.

Payne was #13 in the NCAA for points per game (20.2 ppg), he was #15 in the NCAA for assists per game (6.0 apg), he had a very nice 2.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, he averaged almost 2 steels per game, shot 37.7% from 3 point range, and he pulled down quite a few rebounds for a guard (3.7 rpg). There's a lot to like with those numbers. Very well balanced.

He's going to have to out perform some pretty good competition though if he's going to earn that #4 spot that he got from my model. Only time will tell..
Click to expand...
even if he doesn't end up the 4th best player, he's still underrated going into the draft, which your model is stating. It's going to be more about situation that anything.. if I'm Indiana or Charlotte though I'd be thinking about selling Hill/Kemba for a pick and cap space and drafting him. The kid pays with Lillard poise with a more balanced attack. He can shoot (not great but it will improve), he can defend, he can drive and finish crafty layups/floaters.. he can be deadly on the break but also set up and run half court offense effectively and he's already proven that he's more than capable at running an NBA pick n roll. The only knocks on him are the same knocks that Dame CJ and Payton have disproved the past 3 years. He should be a top 10 pick
 
Nice job, that sounds like a lot of work.

Where is Pat Connaughton? Any interesting other Blazers?
 
Draco said:
Any interesting other Blazers?
Click to expand...
Did you not see Cliff Alexander in the first group of players ranked?
That's pretty cool to see! I didn't read this thread when it was first posted, so thanks for the necrobump!
 
Draco said:
Nice job, that sounds like a lot of work.

Where is Pat Connaughton? Any interesting other Blazers?
Click to expand...

Connaughton came in with a BdB score of 27.8, #54. The problem with his stats is that he played mostly power forward in college. This program isn't keen on a 6'5" power forward. His 'raw' score was 37.5 (low end bench player), but then it couldn't find any successful NBA matches so it pulled his score down to 27.8.
 
blue9 said:
Did you not see Cliff Alexander in the first group of players ranked?
That's pretty cool to see! I didn't read this thread when it was first posted, so thanks for the necrobump!
Click to expand...
Yeah, when I first looked at the results, most of the names in the top 15 I recognized. Alexander was the one that jumped out that didn't fit. After reading a bit more about him, I understand why he slid. Of course this program isn't able to see things like 'low BBIQ' or 'Under investigation by NCAA'. Even with those issues, I expected him to be a second round pick. When he played, he showed solid numbers.
 
42N8Bounce said:
I wanted to find a way to compare the different college players and predict their NBA success. For example, how do we compare a senior center from Duke, to a freshman guard from Weber state? How have players with similar stats fared in the NBA?

Here’s what I did:

I first take the basic stats (FGM, FGA, 3PM, 3PA, FTM, FTA, Ast, Dreb, Oreb, Blk, St, Fls, TO) and made a few adjustments:

- 40 minute game
- Team’s strength of schedule
- Team’s win/loss record
- Players class (FR, SO, JR, SR)
- Players age​

I then take the adjusted stats and place a weighting factor on them (similar to PERs), with some additional modifications:

- Scaled 0 – 100
* 60 is a solid starter
* 50 is the break between a starter (higher than 50) and bench (lower than 50).
* 40 is a solid bench player​
- Height of player taken into account
* A ‘big’ gets a premium for rebounds/blks.
* A ‘small’ gets a premium for assists/stls.
* A ‘wing’ gets a premium for scoring and a balance of reb/blks/ast/stls.​
- All ‘negative’ stats aren’t graded equal
* Hustle factor: A player doesn’t get graded down as much for fouls if they get a lot of rebounds, blocks or steels.
* Ball handling: A player doesn’t get graded down as much for turnovers if they get a lot of assists.
* Knowing your role: A missed two pointer or three pointer isn’t as bad for a player that typically makes them (I’d rather have my best 3 point shooter miss a 3 pointer than someone who doesn’t typically take or make them.)​
- Ball-hog factor. A player that has a very low points-to-assist ratio is graded negatively for not sharing the ball.​

I then take the adjusted stats and compare them against a database of over 1,100 college players that either played in the NBA, or were drafted. I adjust the players rating up or down depending upon the average success of players that had similar adjusted statistics.

I call the final rating the BdB Score. BdB is short for a few things – First off, it’s my initials. It also stands for “Basketball database”.

I’ve put my results and notes here: http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_mock_drafts/comments/29791

This is not a mock draft, but rather a listing of the results of the BdB scores. It only includes those players that have college stats from the previous season. No foreign players are ranked.

Here are the top 15:

1. Karl-Anthony Towns, 72.6
2. Jahlil Okafor, 66.4
3. D’Angelo Russell, 63.6
4. Cameron Payne, 60.9
5. Frank Kaminsky, 59.7
6. Justise Winslow, 58.8
7. Tyus Jones, 58.1
8. Stanley Johnson, 57.5
9. Kelly Oubre, 57.4
10. Delon Wright, 56.8
11. Bobby Portis, 55.0
12. Cliff Alexander, 54.6
13. Jerian Grant, 52.9
14. Devin Booker, 49.0
15. Sam Dekker, 46.1​

Some others of note:

21. Trey Lyles, 44.2
24. Myles Turner, 42.6
30. Robert Upshaw, 39.6
33. Willie Cauley-Stein, 38.2
34. Montrezl Harrell, 38.1
35. Justin Anderson, 37.9​

Cameron Payne, Tyus Jones and Delon Wright are rated higher than I expected. Cliff Alexander is the highest rated player that will probably be picked in the second round. I’m also surprised Miles Turner and Willie Cauley-Stein are rated so low. Only time will tell…

Of course no rating system or predictive measurement is able to capture all of the factors. Misses definitely happen. But it’s fun to give it a shot and see how it turns out in the long run. I’ve been tinkering with this over the past few years and tweaking it to line up with the drafts since 1997. Some of the highest BdB scores since 1997: Anthony Davis 85.5, Kyrie Erving 84.2, Elton Brand 81.9, Kevin Love 80.9, DeJuan Blair 80.7, Blake Griffin 79.3, Michael Beasley, 76.7, Kevin Durant 76.4 (Greg Oden 63.8), DeMarcus Cousins 76.4, Dwyane Wade 74.0, Paul Pierce 73.6, Vince Carter 72.5, and Stephen Curry 72.4.

If the Blazers stay at 23, I’m hoping they pick up Delon Wright if he’s available. I think a big guard like him would match up well with Lillard and McCollum. Bobby Portis would be a great pickup if he falls to 23. More than likely he’ll be gone by then though. Cliff Alexander would also be a good value pick if the Blazers could acquire a pick in the second round. If he can overcome some of his red flags he might develop into a nice player.

The draft is always a fun time of the year! Let me know your thoughts…
Click to expand...

It is an interesting way of creating a mathematical model determining player's potential you think has the most value. Have you considered high school and college injuries as a factor for your model?

I would also like to see certain aspects of the game that usually don't show up in the stats report. Of course, that requires a lot more detail and probably hundreds of hours of research. Hopefully the NBA will be able to track those kinds of details more thoroughly now that they have Player Tracking.

Kudos to you, partner!
 
Hobbesarable said:
It is an interesting way of creating a mathematical model determining player's potential you think has the most value. Have you considered high school and college injuries as a factor for your model?

I would also like to see certain aspects of the game that usually don't show up in the stats report. Of course, that requires a lot more detail and probably hundreds of hours of research. Hopefully the NBA will be able to track those kinds of details more thoroughly now that they have Player Tracking.

Kudos to you, partner!
Click to expand...
Excellent points. A weakness this model has is measuring those 'other' factors such as injuries, drugs, low BBIQ, NCAA infractions, etc.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top